FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121599599#Comment_121599599

yr.no updates twice a day and is based off the operational run of the ECM model. Whatever that one run shows will be reflected on your app. I hope when you look at your phone at lunchtime tomorrow it will be more to your liking. Don't despair. It's only the weather. Lots of people can't even afford a phone 😛

WolfeEire

A massive upgrade on the GEFS. The coldest to date with a nice share of minus 10c members @Gonzoand @nacho libre !!

That mild sector is no longer well supported or has been diluted in the ensembles. The mean is very cold up to Thursday (that's as far as the ENS has got so far).

The op run was decent but the mean is even colder. I'll update later.

This is next Thursday. Amazing mean

nacho libre

Longer term it looks like we have a more westerly influence. The EC46 has been rock solid about the last week of January, unfortunately. Perhaps if the cold air is entrenched over us, it won't be a zonal train as the GFS op suggests and we hang on to the potential for frontal snowfall

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121599720#Comment_121599720

Westerly Atlantic influence looks like the form horse later next week. Can produce some wintry weather at times here though. Don't tell @sryanbruen. He hates the sloppy stuff.

WolfeEire

C.O.L.D. GEFS

The reason for this is a more southerly placed/tracking Azores low. Precip charts illustrate how few members entertain a more northerly tracking low that would have resulted in a mostly rain event for here

WolfeEire

Final run of the day. JMA not entertaining any mild sector for second run a row. The run goes to 132hrs and, I suspect if the run were to continue longer, would shoe the northerly edge of the low system might skim southern coastal counties with snow away from likely away from the coast.

jArgHA

Thx Wolfe, some silver linings again..

Mooro

It certainly is a rollercoaster at the moment. Every time I check in there is a different outlook. I am just enjoying the cold bright days after all the rain. Anything else is just a bonus. Last Sunday morning was a beautiful foggy frosty morning around Tullamore.

Thelonious Monk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121599833#Comment_121599833

holy **** they look like paintings

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121599599#Comment_121599599

I actually meant in general life I'm in a bad dark place unfortunately only thing keeping me positive is this and you guys on boards.ie, most importantly all these weather threads ,hopeful we get even a flurrie of snow and anything else is just a massive bonus 💯

snowgal

Hope you’re ok Dazler97…. Here if you need a chat, don’t ever go through dark places alone

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121599947#Comment_121599947

Thanks 😊 I'll try my best ,I'm sorry to mods as this is extremely off topic

Condor24

Sadly, I expect! 😊. And GFS this morning confirming the return of the Atlantic later next week. It had a nice holiday, but now it's ready for the end of January assault.

Supercell

Game over..ugh..atlantic on the way back with the high drifting south..no likey at all. Cold polar maritime air initially, soon windy, soon to be wet muck. To be honest not much worse than we have had this week on the east coast, probably milder which would be a plus from a heating bill perspective.

almostthere12

The ecm looks very good this morning with very cold weather in place for most of next week and especially towards the end of the week.

It is interesting to look at the nh profile from both the ecm and gfs at 240h, they are totally different.

Ecm

Gfs

Then if you look at the met office uk forecast for a few days later it says “Through this period, the greatest likelihood is that high pressure will remain the more dominant influence on the weather, most likely centred somewhere to the northwest of the UK”.

How the gfs gets to that position from the above I don’t know, the ecm looks more plausible to me if the met office uk are correct.

Reckless Abandonment

As almostthere said looking much better this morning. Ukmo and ecm keep the cold in and the atlantic out. I'm loving this soap opera. Even if it goes to pop, half of January is gone so closer to gardening season:)

WolfeEire

Very happy with overnight output, primarily as all show cold from Sunday through Friday but also that UKMO and ECM are back to where they were 24 hours ago. Two separate schools have emerged on longevity but all going for cold in the medium term.

Big difference between MTCs and Met Eireann's forecasts for Monday. MTC going for daytime temps of 5-9c while ME saying 2-5c. The only model that really supports anything close to 5-9 right now is the GEM so MTC must see it as a contender in this setup.

Condor24

Yes the ECM offers coldies hope, but let's get through this weekend and see if the trend reverts back to cold on GSF runs, where it was gradually being eroded out.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121600125#Comment_121600125

Does MTC write his forecast these days before the overnight ECM comes out? I think he often does,thats less than ideal

It's certainly a period for people in Clare Kerry along the west coast,Mayo Sligo ,Especially Donegal and across Ulster Especially North Ulster to get excited

Some of it escaping into the Midlands,North Leinster etc possibly a small taste into Dublin or Kildare and west Cork

The rest of us,rather disappointing

nacho libre

ECM is cold for five days at least, if not longer

Possible ice days on the ECM later on too. I will take it. It's the naughty corner for the GFS. I hope it's just the GFS being It's overly progressive self in fi.

smallwonder

Morning lads, I've been lurking on here for a week and enjoying the thrill of the chase for white gold! Thanks to all of you who put your time and effort into studying the charts. I'm still no wiser on how to read them so it's great to have people sharing their knowledge.

just seen that ME has snow forecasted for my location from Wed to Fri ( NW Donegal) MTC's report doesn't mention anything like that at all. I'm fact he's very sober about the whole affair

WolfeEire

06z icon goes to 120 hrs. Much better angle (heights shifted further west) on the incoming colder airmass Sunday and Monday. Gets colder air in quicker and reduces chances of a mild sector entering the arena.

The above compared to 00z run below

squarecircles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121600301#Comment_121600301

All mention of a cold northerly and significant snowfall gone now from his forecast, daytime temperatures aproaching double figures and frost free at night in places, with possible return to the Atlantic at the end of the week.

So essentially nothing, after 2 weeks of the models showing a potent cold spell.

What a total headf**k, Am done, am out bra.

TheMilkyPirate

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121600347#Comment_121600347

It's one man's opinion

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121600347#Comment_121600347

See you in a few hours so? 🤣 https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121599138/#Comment_121599138

Give it another day. We cannot have afford to have short memories in this country when it comes to winter weather in January. Last autumn, I would have gladly taken the potential cold spell presented to us if it was suggested back then. Lots at play still regarding next week in terms of specifics and I am confident that snowfall will be recorded somewhere in Ireland at various times. In the near term, for example, the UKV (very accurate on recent light snow flurries in southeast England) suggests a band of sleet/snow (mostly snow) tracking S or SE on Monday evening.

Mods, I am conscious this is a pre-120hrs chart but it's posted in the context of what may happen 120+.

Mount Vesuvius

GEM Mean looks delicious for battleground. Very happy with broader outputs this morning. Finer details come much later.

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121600379#Comment_121600379

I don't get why some people seem to get so excited about it.

Anything outside 4-5 is almost always liable to change anyway.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121600347#Comment_121600347

Didn't you criticise others for being overly reactive? No disrespect intended to M.T ,but he is not infallible; he gets it wrong some times. If the ECM is correct it maybe cold and dry much of the time,but features could pop up.

TTLF

People can get worked up about model output because they love the chase. But if you have 3-4 runs in a row that downgrade rather than upgrade it can cause an emotional high/low reaction. Its like being promised as a child you’re going to the movies and it makes you buzzed, but then something comes up and that plan doesn’t happen, so you feel so awfully upset because the prospects of something fun have been squandered. I used to be like this way in previous cold spells (I.e. February 2021 💀) but eventually people will come to learn not to take models as seriously once they’ve been let down a couple times.

Anyway the broader output looks grand. Pretty much anyone’s game at this point beyond day 9, but I’m not really surprised the Atlantic is returning after a week or so, I expected it to eventually with ural blocking being dead. Thanks wolfie for the continued support and high spirits analysing these runs!