FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Villain

One thing to bear in mind is those of us that watch models all year round and especially ensembles, we have seen some big swings within 3-5 days on models on a few occasions in the last few months. Granted most have been storms developing quicker and lows feeding up from the South, very different to what we are looking at here but I would just caution anyone looking beyond the 20th and taking the ensembles as gospel. They very well could hold but we certainly could see flips either way still. Enjoy the bright cold Northerly for next week, much better than mild Atlantic muck imo.

bazlers

The excitement is only starting. Alot of doom and gloom here. Its only weather and a bit of fun /hobbie(escapism) .Enjoy the rollercoaster.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121607262#Comment_121607262

I probably have jinxed it now. You're right, Bazlers. It's a hobby and a great one at that. It's only the weather1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058330960/cold-spell-14-15th-january-onward#latest

Dazler97

Carlow weather (alan) was just on the radio there saying it will be colder next week and we should follow the English weather which I do always anyway he also agrees with me that warnings should be covered by area not counties for example west Galway in an orange and east Galway in a yellow doesn't make sense so I'm with him on that 100%

Dazler97

Met Office have a video on the latest of the coming cold spell ,northern Ireland already in a yellow warning for snow and ice on Monday

Oscar Bravo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121607724#Comment_121607724

He just posted above at 3.05pm also ;)

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121607798#Comment_121607798

Oh I didn't know he's on this thread my bad

nacho libre

Ah feck. The EC46 has apparently flipped tonight. If it's right then we are looking to Mid February after this cold spell. Where did this signal come from? It seems to go against the teleconnections.

typhoony

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121607072#Comment_121607072

The Return of the Atlantic from Thursday onwards is a common theme across all the models, would be amazed if Tamara is correct. A nice cold crisp dry week for most unless a disturbance not currently being picked up appears at short notice.

sryanbruen

Well Tamara has backtracked on what she has said and the models are actually right with a zonal period likely this time next week. You can't help but laugh really.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121611100#Comment_121611100

Backtracked to what? That she didn't rule out a milder intrusion. That's the folly of being absolute about a certain outcome in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Some might even call it arrogance. Just come out and say you got it wrong.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121611100#Comment_121611100

I noticed she is expressing surprise at what is forecast to transpire particularly regarding the veracity of the Jet Stream which is not really a surprise to me considering it normally does get fuelled up by deep North American cold. Talk of MJOs, teleconnections etc is closer to pseudoscience than science when it's presented in a certain way.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121611346#Comment_121611346

If you are personally invested in a certain outcome, as a means to massaging your ego, then yes

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121611378#Comment_121611378

I gave up when she started referring to kayak whitewater rafts sailing across the Atlantic. It was something like that anyway 🤣

Reckless Abandonment

She obviously knows her stuff and has a understanding of the science behind it all. But there is no need for the complicated and vague wording she uses on a form the layperson reads.. I don't think I'm stupid but after reading one of her post I start to think I am.

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121611346#Comment_121611346

Leave her alone Wolfe ya big bully 😃

There is a bit of the old high horse chat from her right enough..think wolfe would turn that horse into a shetland pony pretty quickly 😉 😀

nacho libre

That is a monster low on the GFS. I hope it's just the GFS overreacting to the Arctic plunge in North America. The UKMO would be a far better outcome, but even the GFS in its outer stages looks to be settling down again. Are we going to see another High near or over us in early Februray. If that's the direction of travel I am not getting sucked in twice. Let's have heights building to the north east and properly orientated or just forget about it.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121611643#Comment_121611643

I would like a Scandinavian High in February. Why are they so rare though? The last decent one that worked out for us was late Feb 2018 if I’m correct.

Hope we don’t get another Greenland high because it will just get obliterated by lows after a few days again 🙃

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121611718#Comment_121611718

Most likely. Then there will be the alphabet of excuses trotted as to why it failed. The way I see it absent of a major ssw we can forget about HIgh Latitude Blocking in any direction( I hope February proves me wrong). If the globe spun from east to west it might be different. If I had my way the north Atlantic drift would shut down for good,then it wouldn't matter which way the globe spun, we'd be getting winters similar to North America.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121611775#Comment_121611775

Same feelings as yourself. Isn’t there one theory that if a lot of the arctic ice melts due to climate change, this could cut off or at least weaken the Gulf Stream resulting in us getting much colder winters. Wouldn’t mind that at all to be honest!

nacho libre

Amazing how quick the Arctic plunge is gone from North America. Is the pv going to split again in the days afterwards?

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121611883#Comment_121611883

Setting up a nice little Scandi high to come (just my take)

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121611883#Comment_121611883

That looks the kind of setup that would lead to wave breaking again yes... Aleutian troughing and weak Ural ridging there. I cannot be bothered though, this whole SSW saga, the unusual drop in model forecast verification and this cold period has my whole head fried.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121611883#Comment_121611883

It really does. A seismic pattern shift in the space of a few days. I think it will reload and the cold will pile deep into the USA again soon after. I sense that aside from UKMO and Met long-range updates, that the Atlantic zonal pattern will be with us for as long as North America is in the freezer. The jet stream gets all its energy undercutting those diving American lows. It's the main reason, apart from the collapse of the GH, why our cold gets wiped away later next week. There is no quick end to a zonal Atlantic. It will be February before we see the back of it, if and when high pressure finally builds...and builds in the right spot!

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121611978#Comment_121611978

I get your frustration. Personally I think it could be climate change that is throwing a spanner in the works with all this. No way to tell for sure and I know not everything with the weather can be blamed on it. But that would be my best guess.

Meteorite58

Currently the Atlantic looks to come roaring back with strong winds and heavy rain over the weekend and into the early days of the following week at least. Could be a disturbed spell of weather, with milder weather for a few days, showing up to 10 or 12C in general but could see fluctuations as frontal systems come and go.

esposito

I get the feeling a lot of us are p*****d off today. Can you blame us?! Today’s weather is utterly miserable, the upcoming cold snap will be mainly dry save for the north and west who will see some snow showers (enjoy!)

Then the final kick in the teeth - The Atlantic looks to come back with a vengeance Friday and will most likely dominate our weather for the next two weeks at least.

Despite the above I will try to enjoy the mostly cold and hopefully frosty, bright days next week.

Billcarson

I find myself these days always disappointed with the weather. It's nearly always the worst case scenario to what I want. This week perfect example. Had really hoped for a sunny week with plenty of frosts. The worst case scenario for this week I thought was mostly cloudy with little frost. Of course the worst case had to happen ,no frost at all just cloud ,though I can only speak for my location. It just seems to be relentless disappointment after relentless disappointment.

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121612330#Comment_121612330

High stool the only solution Billcarson.

ongarite

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121611983#Comment_121611983

Seen interesting twitter post on this. Global warming causing cold polar air to move south across Canada, Northern US.

https://twitter.com/Historian_Steve/status/1745920780624711886