FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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Back to general model watching for me in the hope that something more interesting pops up during February particularly for the snow starved east and south which hasn't seen a flake of snow all winter and we are now half way through the winter and the clock has started to tick.
A mostly cold and dry few days to come with a chance of frost most nights until Thursday. Turning much milder and more unsettled from Friday with the Atlantic making a fairly swift comeback, another possible Atlantic onslaught. One can argue did the Atlantic truly leave us in the first place all weather over the past week since the deluge spell ended, has been modified by the Atlantic anyway and this cold spell is also heavily modified in severity due to the Atlantic.
Next week will begin very mild with long fetch south-westerlies and plenty of low pressure around and could be quite windy at times.
Deeper into FI there are signs that things could become very windy and potentially stormy. Temperatures will generally be close to double figures most of the time but brief spell of cooler weather will alternate with the mild with wintry precipitation possible on north-western hills.
On this GFS run we get a brief northerly toppler but this probably wont verify and if it does any cold will be very brief and get flattened off by the Atlantic.
We finish up with mild south-westerlies once again in an overall very zonal and active Atlantic pattern which will most likely extend into the beginning of February.
In terms of precipitation it will remain completely dry for most of the country until Friday evening with Donegal, Sligo and Mayo likely to see showers this week with a wintry mix, snow over high ground and to lower levels inland.
We finish up very wet with high rainfall totals especially in the west and most of this falling in the final week of January once the cold dry spell has ended.
If this verifies it looks like the deluge pattern is going to make its return with no shortage of wind and rain events from next weekend.
The period from 20th January to 25th January looks particularly wet with spells of heavy rain on all days quite well supported. From 26th January things remain unsettled but perhaps not as overly wet. Staying mostly mild throughout the period from 20th January to the end of the month.
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There is a slight sign that the upcoming Atlantic rampage may not last that long. This unsettled period see's both the NAO and AO going strongly positive so blocking goes away completely and the Atlantic powers up with plenty of low pressure. However it looks as if both the NAO and AO quickly go back to neutral as we approach the end of January with maybe a hint that they could go negative again in February.
The Atlantic will dominate for at least a week but maybe signs of it going less active as we approach February.
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A fairly nasty looking dartboard low on the 6z for this weekend, could be a real soaker if this verifies and possibly very windy for the south.
It may give a slight temporary dusting in midlands and over high ground.
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Potentially another storm just 2 days later, hopefully we do not get a direct hit with this one.
We could have multiple storm warnings during the second half of January, even if we don't things look very unsettled indeed from Friday into the weekend and on into next week.
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