FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

WolfeEire

Charts are looking very stormy on Sunday into next week. Unlike cold charts, these ones will verify. Give me the current weather over mild, windy and wet anyday.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121619859#Comment_121619859

The charts are basically a horror show from this weekend and into next week. Some cooler slots but plenty of very mild charts showing up with long fetch south-westerlies. Those nearly always verify.

A very wet weekend to come and during the early part of next week. A very zonal pattern with mild, often very mild sectors alternating with cooler sectors but overall a mild pattern is setting up which could be very unsettled at times. Temperatures for January are a bit below average at the moment and will fall further over the next few days but with the remaining 10 days of January set to be mostly mild this month could finish up about average or slightly milder than average.

nacho libre

It's very disappointing when you consider the UKMO was talking of an extended cold spell with just the slight chance of milder air for a time. There was the tantalising prospect of a series of fronts giving frontal snow too. I just hope there is no delay to the return of more settled weather at the end of January and that we at least get some frost and fog out of it. If we can't have snow that's the next best thing. Preferably a couple of nights of hard rime frost so it takes on the appearance of snow after a while

nacho libre

That looks serious for Tuesday ,but it's probably the GFS overdoing things at this range. I wish we could fast forward to settled weather again.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121620107#Comment_121620107

The UKMO were fairly off the mark with their predictions. Met Eireann were right to be extremely conservative. Was it the UKMO that showed that huge dump of snow from low pressure over southern and central England about 5 days out and it vanished into France on all future runs, I think a few people were surprised they showed this very early on and it did not verify. Not much of a battleground scenario either with the Atlantic swooping in and putting all deep cold back in it's box.

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121620330#Comment_121620330

We are long over due a storm up here but probably won’t amount to much if anything at all like most times at that range. And enjoy the settled weather while we have it.

Meteorite58

On Sunday ECM, GFS and UKMO all showing strong winds along Southern coasts, ECM the least strong, GFS and UKMO strong to very strong winds into nearly all of the southern half of the country ( could be quite stormy in the UK ). ICON on the other hand wants to wipe out the country with severe storm force winds almost countrywide. GEM keeps any strong winds well south off the coast. Early days just to note could have strong winds.

ECM has a developing Wave, GFS more developed and deepening rapidly on its transit of Ireland as does the UKMO whereas ICON has a monster depression off W coast. As ever a bit of a spread but there is energy there with an ever increasing fast jet.

Mon perhaps very windy in the Northern half of the country from the ECM and GEM , ICON showing windy for the Southern half, and again Tues looks stormy from the ECM, GFS and GEM and ACCESS-G and could be very stormy in the UK going by recent model output but will take days to see if a proper trend continues.

Very wet outlook from the Weekend especially the Western half of the country with emphasis on the Atlantic coastal counties.

Alternating mild and cool temperatures but leaning towards the milder, some wintry showers at times after cold fronts but nothing too cold standing out...wont get a chance.

nacho libre

Let's see if we see something like this still being modelled in 12 days time

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121620330#Comment_121620330

I read that GFS is run with souped up computer processing and consequently, tends to amplify faint signals. Basically, it picks up patterns further out than other models.

WolfeEire

Not looking like going neutral or negative by the start of February. First person to mention MJO phases is getting a straight block 😛

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121621379#Comment_121621379

Nah I'm done with "drivers" or "teleconnections" after this winter so you won't be seeing it from me!

Gonzo

The only driver I 100% believe in is 'everything works against us'. We are absolutely cursed for snow.

I'll give this winter another few weeks before throwing in the towel but if we don't see a flake by end of February I think I'll be done for good with Irish winters. At least in the summer we can usually expect some nice and warm weather even in the poor summers like the one just gone.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121621467#Comment_121621467

The latest MJO phases graphic for February cold prospects

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121621495#Comment_121621495

Aww no gonzo please don't give up on future winters i know so called global warming is here and there's evidence of that but surely we'll see another repeat of 2010 or even February 2009 within the next 10 years hopes anyway ,if needs be I'll just go away to Scandinavia every winter for 2 weeks and that will do me ,I very much prefer snow holidays than sun 🌞 ones

.Donegal.

Exceptional storm Sunday on the overnight runs

GFS

Icon

UKMO missing the time frame but it’s pretty similar to gfs at t144 below it

rilz

Norn Iron be blown into North sea😄

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121621859#Comment_121621859

What a pity 😆

Very mild charts showing up for end of Jan. I think the Netweather strat crew (its all going to plan) will be nervous this morning!!

adocholiday

ECM showing that whopper storm Sunday too. That's a lot of model consensus so far out from the event.

And just to supplement @.Donegal. post above with some wind speed estimates:

Latest GFS run has the storm for Sunday a little bit further North than before.

nacho libre

That would be the real deal if the 80mph gusts well inland on some charts came to pass. However it is likely those gusts will be downgraded on future runs.

A few of the ensembles are showing some sort of wind event for Sunday. This is one of the more extreme ones.

Robwindstorm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121622749#Comment_121622749

This looks like how far north the storm will go rather than the recent southerly tracks. One to watch

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121621909#Comment_121621909

I can see a lot of people taking a break from model watching for a while until something more interesting shows up in the models for February. I'm beginning to think this swift flip back to a very mild and unsettled pattern could be here a bit longer than expected.

The 6z looks more like a summer model output with long fetch south-westerlies and high pressure close to the SE of England drawing up extremely mild air. An early taste of Spring if it verifies with temperatures potentially reaching 16 or 17C end of January in southern parts of England under the right conditions with cold bottled up over the Artic Circle, Russia and Greece.

The Ships will start sailing soon one by one.

sideswipe

If a bunch of boffins and scientists had to create the perfect conditions for a country with little to no snow, the result would be Ireland!

squonk

Yup. Why argue against form. Our default now seems to be mild and wet. Speaking from a perspective of living in and around Galway Bay. We also get wind thrown in. Even the frosty outbreaks aren’t particularly notable these days I really do expect things to settle into zonality from the weekend and stay that way for the foreseeable future.

I fully agree with the views of some here that we really just have one or two seasons now. It’s entirely anecdotal and probably my impression but I can remember back in the 80s we usually had the expectation of a dry cold spell in February for a few weeks. It seemed to have happened enough times that it seemed like a pattern but much of that has changed and Feb is likely to be wet and mostly mild with an occasional wintry outbreak these days.

Has anyone got data on monthly mean temps since the 80s? I’m assuming those temps are rising and our weather patterns are changing as a result.

YanSno

Either 1st week of February or end of February it will deliver the goods ❄️. I just haven't had the time to elaborate on that hopefully at some stage next week.

Reversal

Would be very interesting to see a comparison of the number of winter days with T850hpa below -8c each winter from the 1980s until now.

Obviously could be done by brute force if anyone had the time or is there a way that analysis could be part automated?

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121623217#Comment_121623217

Just don't mention drivers.. I wish I could share your confidence Yansno, I think we could have a high that is just too close by. As ever we will see.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121623374#Comment_121623374

I count about 5 of the 30 GEFS members from this morning showing some form of a Scandi high by the end of run. None of the 30 show deep cold established over Ireland. In fact, the majority are showing the dreaded Azores High pushed north toward Ireland. The latter is a familiar site to us in winter.

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121623374#Comment_121623374

From this weekend it will be 3 weeks before there is any change to this onslaught. Absolutely zero resistance to any atlantic driven weather. Very defllating just like attempts to build heights into GL. Throwing all the eggs into February.