FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121484281#Comment_121484281

Yes, it looks primed for heights to move North in the days afterwards due to the the bulk of pv seemingly moving east,but as you say there maybe enough of residual energy left to scupper the high going north west.

pauldry

High Pressure over Azores will dominate though we may get one cold and wintry day around 22nd. That's what I take from past few days. The due Northerly has turned into a NW flow so will be messy even if it is cold.

esposito

The odds really are stacked against us though aren’t they. Yet we all retain hope coming into an Irish winter.

A stubborn azores high to our south and the Polar vortex over Greenland. Every winter.

When you look back at 2009 and 2010 you just realise how lucky we got.

I just hope we get lucky in January with a proper blast of cold with some snow showers. 2-4 days will do.

WolfeEire

A colder look to the 00z gfs.

Supercell

15C anyone?, could be nice in the east, but a little breezy, especially in the west.

Billcarson

This weekend looks very boring and bland. Mild and probably dull and cloudy. Not exactly the weather to get one into the festive spirit. Hopefully the following weekend will be more seasonal.

almostthere12

The extended ECM looks interesting, by the end the vortex has been shunted away from Canada and it is gradually heading southeast towards Europe. Now could that high go further west and into Newfoundland and on to Greenland?

pauldry

Last couple of runs I see a small secondary low being shown to the South of Ireland. If this materialises it could drag down some of the cold to the North on Xmas day. Dec 22nd will likely decide what happens but more tornadoes on the latest GFS run

Gonzo

I think a break from model watching might do some good over the next few days. Some very mild weather on the way but at least it will be mostly dry over the coming week. 14 or 15C is possible in places over the weekend and early next week with those very mild to warm long fetch south westerlies. The period from December 20th onwards is still the great unknown but for the most part things look like staying zonal throughout, either mild zonality or cool zonality and I don't want neither!

Tazio

Christmas Eve Storm anyone? In my very amateur opinion there have been hints on and off about something around this timeframe for the last while...

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121486331#Comment_121486331

If that dragged down colder air in its wake it would be acceptable. Cold zonality can sometimes bring snow to us. My memory is getting worse so I can't remember the specific year it was, but we had heavy snow showers from a westerly/ north westerly a few years back. Granted it wasn't powdery snow that stayed on the ground for days, but that's not up for grabs this Christmas , unfortunately! So wet snow will have to do.

pauldry

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121486331#Comment_121486331

If the last storm was Fergus is the next one Grinch?

Gonzo

Latest ECM extended is grim stuff if your hoping for proper cold and snow over the next month but there is hope at the end. We look very mild for the rest of the month with temperatures between 3 and 6C above average for the coming week and between 1 and 3C above average for the rest of December with the Atlantic dominating from Christmas into early January. There are hints around week 2 of January that a mid Atlantic ridge may allow something cooler for us but that is along way off. First half of January looks fairly wet but becoming dryer as we progress towards mid month and also possibly cooler. It finishes up with high pressure dominating over Greenland and hints at northerlies for us. These forecasts change daily but for now it looks mild for the rest of 2023 and perhaps the start of January with blocking coming back in January and the potential for colder weather increases as we progress into mid January and beyond.

pauldry

Have to say I'm delighted with this. Much prefer mild. Heats been on non stop most of past month with temperature rarely above 10c. As we know by now mid December is usually as mild as a Summer month in Ireland. Remember July 15c? And rain. Well next week 15c and not as much rain.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121487236#Comment_121487236

The cold spell at the start of the month I found miserable, it was damp, felt really cold but it wasn't cold enough for snow, just cold rain and some patchy frost. To me that was the worst of everything, we could still feel the cold properly but it wasn't that cold in reality and the heating bills were high. A week of snowy easterlies is a different thing entirely, yes still expensive heating bills but at least there is the excitement of snow falling and lovely winter wonderland scenes rather than a damp cold expensive mess and that's why I don't like cold zonality or cold spells which fail to deliver. The mild option which we have over the next few weeks is better if proper cold and snow isn't on the table in the short term.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121487143#Comment_121487143

Deja vu. Let’s hope the ECM extended is wrong with that outlook (as it often is).

Fully expecting mainly mild up to and including Christmas alright but after that let’s hope for a drastic change to colder!!

US3

I'm dreaming of a mild Christmas 🎶

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121487490#Comment_121487490

So you are the one responsible for all the Green Christmases in the last 13 years.

I enjoyed the last cold spell, we had many clear days and towards the end we almost got an ice day. 🧊

15c at this time of year is just wrong! The same as if we had 12c in June from a blocking high.

Hooter23

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121487143#Comment_121487143

Sure if we all changed our forecasts daily...what would we do...would we listen to todays forecast...and then say theres no point because it will be different tomorrow and the day after that🙃

Meteorite58

Models jumping around but would have thought in general showing cold coming in just before Christmas, looking like NW'lys with wintry showers, GFS looking very wintry out into FI . ECM has the look of unleashing wintry weather around the 24th. Will see if it is showing tomorrow night. Will a trend form?

Gonzo

Just took a look at the pub run and it's ensembles and it's a fairly substantial shift to cold for the UK and Ireland. For my part of Meath lots of snow spikes appearing on the graph from December 20th through Christmas as far as we can go to the 28th of December with December 20th to 24th looking most wintry.

Alot of the ensemble members now bunching between -4 and -7 uppers which would suggest wintry potential but marginal at times. I would love to see some upgrades to this over the next few days. Certainly nowhere nearly as mild as what was showing up to this morning.

pauldry

Ya the mild High is being shoved away. But it's too far out yet. What is for sure is we have a week of dry weather to look forward to before the cold has a go at reaching us around Dec 21st or 22nd. Let's see what the trend brings. Ye said there would be eye candy FI charts this week to "excite" people. Let's see what the moderated versions look like nearer the time.

Billcarson

Atm anyone who lives above about 300m is in with a good chance of a white Xmas . A few tweaks here and there to the output could reduce that to lower levels. Interesting to see what happens anyway.....

WolfeEire

The models are finding it increasingly difficult to read the effect of a stretched polar vortex. The latest gfs is evidence of that. A most definite swing to a trend for colder conditions in lead up to Christmas but m it's far.from guaranteed on the ensembles where there remains quite a spread of possible outcomes

Gonzo

Hopefully we can eventually get winds into the north-east or east with this one but for now it's looking like polar maritime air which of course involves Atlantic mixing so while precipitation may well be wintry at times, lying snow is unlikely away from high ground or places well inland. Current modeling suggests uppers in the -3 to -6 range with this one which is nowhere near cold enough for low level lying snow.

For that we need -8 uppers and colder to guarantee lying snow to low levels and to get uppers like that the Atlantic needs to be completely removed from the equation and the only way we can do that is get the winds sourced from the Pole, NE of Greenland or long fetch easterlies from the Urals. This is what I'm waiting for.

But realistically I'm probably looking at January or February for such a thing to happen. The pre Christmas cold spell may only be round 1 on a road to a rather cold second half of winter.

The snow row for my area is starting to look good, there are 6 members which give serious dumpings of snow/wintry precipitation but in reality would be lucky to get 1 or 2cm.

So the risk of seeing snow falling over the Christmas period is certainly there now, not something we see very often heading into Christmas.

nacho libre

My fear is the GFS , while having the overall pattern correct ,can overdo these incursions and the reality maybe a halway house between GFS and ECM in the end which would likely mean snow only for the highest peaks. What's clear is we are not going to have powdery snow that hangs around for days out of this, but if the GFS in some of its output isn't over doing it, then it could be some places even at lower level see a fair bit of snow in a fairly marginal situation over Christmas week. I think we are going to have to wait till the new year for proper cold from a straightline northerly or north easterly airflow. One thing we don't want is the atmosphere to be primed for blocking only for an ssw to come along and reset the pattern to default zonal. I think this happened in 2001.

pauldry

Ya the problem with the GFS is you have to forecast how much of a downgrade there will be. A couple of days ago this was just tipping the North of Scotland

Hooter23

There is a chance a big storm could develop near christmas when that cold comes down...it could pass over ireland or to the south of us...things are not lined up yet for this to develop but it would not take much of a change for this to happen...the cold is on the way anyway... thats all we know for now...

Kermit.de.frog

Classic polar maritime flow by the 21st on the ECM

Good time of year for it if yeh like heavy frequent hail/sleet/snow showers.

PokeHerKing

Ecm looking more like the GFS this evening!