FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Gonzo

just took a look at the GFS 12z for first time in a few days and I wish I didn't. Mild followed by more mild and temperatures getting to 14C all the way to the 8th of February with plenty of long fetch south-westerlies which will verify. It doesn't get any worse than this really for cold and snow but I say this every winter around this time.

Reversal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121660944#Comment_121660944

I know it's not worth much but the day 10 ECM offers some hope, heights building towards Greenland from both the Atlantic and Canadian side, while some Jetstream energy is going underneath the Iberian ridge. Could go somewhere interesting in the day 11-13.

esposito

We all might as well throw in the towel now. When the f**k are we going to get a cold snowy February again. 2030? Sick of this mild wet, windy rubbish.The way things are going all of February will probably be mild.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121660944#Comment_121660944

And you are almost always correct.

We will likely never see a 2018 scenario in our lifetimes again. Winter 2024 can practically be written off for snow bunnies now.

Billcarson

Not what one would want to see at the end of jan if it's cold and snow your after. Wonder would that be records broken in Spain with charts like that? They broke their December record last month. Christ only knows how hot it could get down there 6 months from now if the heat was to start building up as early as jan/ Feb.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121661542#Comment_121661542

There is always hope when North America is not in the freezer which it currently isn't or is not forecast to be. Secondly, the AO is forecast to go into deep negative while the NAO hits neutral at the same time and looks like it may dip into negative.

Having said all that, the UK Met Office will still be talking about a northerly or Easterly in mid summer. They have now pushed it out to late February now. They have had a mare on the long range front which, let's be honest, is nonsense. The seasonal charts are utterly pointless too. Ps...that's my rant.for the year over 😃

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121661650#Comment_121661650

Oh come on 😂 unless you're on your last legs, that isn't going to be the case. The climate is changing but it's not changing that much or that quickly FFS, it can still snow in Ireland, it snowed last week....

If it's 2018 you're looking for of course you'll be disappointed, those kind of setups have never been common on this island.

nacho libre

You can take it to the bank we'll have snow in March. I think we will get snow at some point in February. I would love if we went from very mild to a frigid North Easterly in the space of a few days ,that would be a shock to the system for some.

Fades out with evil laughter 😈

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121661714#Comment_121661714

They can get isolated freakishly hot days sometimes down in the very south. They've already had 25C at the start of the month in Malaga and I know close to 28C has happened before in December and January some years but it's usually just the one day at that time of the year. Typical for Malaga/Fuengirola at this time of the year is 16 to 22C.

WolfeEire

Milder zonal conditions for the next 10-14 days. Greenland heights building early February with a northerly extended Azores High. A strongly negative AO at this point would deliver cold into lower latitudes, but the above setup would most likely mean northerly topplers missing/skirting Ireland & Britain.

nacho libre

I just read the latest Met Eireann long range, I wish I hadn't. If that's correct February is a write off for snow. We just have to hope that it will change for the better. If it doesn't winter 2023-2024 will go down as one of the biggest let downs in recent times, but I suppose only if you are foolish enough to get swayed by x, y, z drivers . The Atlantic says to hell with your drivers, I rule the roost!

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121665707#Comment_121665707

In fairness, when have Met Éireann ever been bullish about snow and winds from the east etc.

We should all take long range forecasting with a pinch of salt. Of course mild weather has a greater chance of verifying than cold so they’ll probably be right.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121665707#Comment_121665707

It's based on the EPS I think so will put words to that model. I'm done with the long range stuff after the period just gone by.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121664796#Comment_121664796

This ECMWF weekly 500 mb anomaly would suggest the above is likely. As always, things can change.

nacho libre

I think we would all wait for blocking if we finally got a block that delivered after mid February,but knowing our luck winter will just limp out with a half hearted attempt at a hlb. Things can change, but they usually don't when it's crummy output. Just for once it would be nice if a proper high latitude block suddenly appeared in the output for the 7th or 8th of February onwards

Gonzo

We may get another attempt of cold second half of February but it will probably go all wrong like the last cold spell as heights look to stay in place over Spain and Portugal into February, where heights have been ongoing without a budge since the start of winter.

Of course high pressure is the form horse for south-western Europe so just like the early December cold spell and the recent one, the next one will have it's work cut out for it if those heights don't move. Unfortunately the heights often stay there until quite late in March and it's often a wait till April that Spain gets it's most unsettled weather of the year where they can get serious storms. Of course by then it's far too late for us and easterlies would just be cold rain by that point.

Gavsweathervids today said that if the upcoming very mild pattern persists into mid February then the winter forecast could well be a bust. The winter forecasts were doing very well up to mid January and everything it seems has fallen apart over the past week with this prolonged very mild and zonal pattern.

We are facing another very mild winter overall. December finished up well above average. January is still colder than average here but in the UK the cet has gone back to a 0.0 anomaly so the cold temperature anomaly for January has already been unraveled. January likely to finish at least a degree above average for the CET and in Ireland it will probably be average or slightly above by the time January is over and done with. First half of February is likely to be well above average temperatures so this winter is likely to finish another milder than average winter.

Billcarson

It seems every season nowadays is just predisposed to end up warmer then average regardless of teleconnections etc. Even last summer which wasn't great still came in above average. If one was to say next winter will be crap ,more then 10 months out , it probably wouldn't be too far off the mark.

almostthere12

Don’t worry my friends over on NW have said they are checking out the mountain torque associated with the Mcgillycuddy Reeks and it’s looking good……….seriously though a few of them are saying there will be change in the models soon based on certain drivers………of course we all know how that turned out the last time!!

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121667763#Comment_121667763

I think some of them of there seek hero status and come out with any old shite hoping it’ll stick and then they’ll be beatified and have a bank holiday named after them on planet netweather. They run a mile every time it goes wrong.

pauldry

I'd imagine we will get one or two short sharp cold spells before the end of the Winter but we may also get record breaking high temperatures at times. Climate change driven jets seem a lot more variable in that the warm is warmer and the cold is well shorter but still can be cold. By 2030 there will be even less chance of cold spells I'd say.

So for this Winter nothing till the 2nd half of February cold with n of course our obligatory cold March.

WolfeEire

The below photo was taken at my house three years ago today. I am more fortunate than most with the number of days with lying snow I have had. Ironically, the scenario that delivers least snow for me is an easterly.

I don't think our climate has changed dramatically but there is no disputing the average temps per calendar year are higher in line with global temp increases. As for other parameters, I do not believe our winters are getting stormier or that our mean winter winds are greater than ever. I would be keen to see 'days with lying snow' stats.

I remember mild winters in my youth and equally, runs of cold winters. I just think real deep cold in Ireland is a rare occurrence like it always has been. 1947, 1963, 2010 are rare events just as the legendary storms (night of the big wind, Charley, Ophelia, Darwin). Likewise, heatwaves and drought like those of 76, 95, 2006, 2013, 2018 etc are exceptional events. Weather memories can skew perspective. If it's not the Beast or Darwin, it's cast off as a lesser event. Ireland has, and always had, a year round spring-like climate. The rain is warm in summer and cooler in winter, and it only rains between the showers in spring and autumn.

It would be unlikely, in my opinion, for large parts of the country not to see snowfall during the latter half of this meteorological winter. It may happen on February 20th or March 9th or later than that again (example dates btw!). And if it doesn't happen, it does not mean we won't have a cold winter next year such is the unpredictable nature of the climate of an island on the edge of the northeast Atlantic.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121668428#Comment_121668428

I have always thought that winter 87/88 was the winter in which our winters changed. May not have changed drastically but enough for less cold spells/ snaps then before. We had a reprieve 08-10. Ironic though that Dec 10 was my favourite cold spell of all even for pre 87/88 ( being born in 73).

leahyl

Just letting ye know, I had a dream last night that I went onto Boards weather forum and everyone was gearing up for a Beast from the East. In fact, it felt so real that I wasn't sure had I actually read it in real life, I had to check here 😉

It's a sign.....

WolfeEire

Some colder runs beginning to pop up by the end the ECMWF and GEM ensembles.Overall, the mean temperature remains around normal due to the presence of much milder temps too. A 17-18c scatter in members by the end.

Reversal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121668428#Comment_121668428

Things can change alright. By around 2008, it felt like it was never going to be winter again in Ireland. Then 08/09 was quite frosty iirc, with a good snowy easterly in Feb 2009. 09/10 was a great winter, with January 2010 probably the most severe cold spell since the 90s, which of course many don't remembers because it was totally eclipsed by a historic Nov / Dec 2010. There were notable cold spells that just missed us then in 2012 and 2013, although some here saw epic snow in 2013. The BFTE 2018 wasn't long after in the grand scheme of things. In time, when the memories of the bland and mild winters fade, people here will be talking about the old proper winters of the 2010s.

So even if this winter is a bust for many, it does not mean they all will be in the future. In 2008, I thought it would never snow properly again here, and then the following 10 years had plenty of memorable and historic winter weather events, the same can happen again.

nacho libre

An unusual situation in North America. We are always saying how cold in North America scuppers our chances of cold. I seem to recall North America being unusually warm in December didn't help us out either. Let's see this time .

Dazler97

Met Office saying there's could be a northerly on the 10 day trend but confidence is rather low but yet some of their models for extreme 1st of February has a 75% chance which is rather high for 7 days out that had a high anchored over southern France and allowing a westerly in , we shall see what February brings ,I hope there is an easterly at some stage in February as I'll be in Dublin most of it as I'll be in pats hospital

nacho libre

The Cork Snow shield could be broken!