FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121672383#Comment_121672383

🤪🤪 haha

CrowdedHouse

30.7 C in Spain today, any sign of that heading this way lads? Please

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121672633#Comment_121672633

Warmest Jan temperature ever recorded in Europe . Another unwanted record.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121672383#Comment_121672383

Scraps on the buffet table as Nick Sussex would say. This Winter has been and continues to be a joke!! Outside of a few severe frosts there's hardly been a snowflake across the country...

I'm actually happy this weekend will be exceptionally mild. Its been the most exhausting chase ever for cold and nothing to show for it. As the N/W strat crew would say, its all happening at Christmas, then it's just after, then it's January, the vortex in tatters, then it's early February....yawn 🥱 it ain't happening

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121673006#Comment_121673006

Two words .climate change. When we see Europe hitting record high temperatures for January it just emphases what we are up against .

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121673006#Comment_121673006

With you writing things off perhaps it's a good sign. As any time you ramp it rarely works out:)

highdef

Bring on the summer warmth. Personally, I welcome warmer weather in the summer months but there is the risk of it becoming a lot wetter in the summer too, due to the extra amounts of energy available as a result of the extra heat. Last year was a good example......was it 10 days in a row of thunderstorms in Ireland in June?

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121675553#Comment_121675553

I think so I know here in carrick there was 7 days in a row of thunderstorms which broke my local record, we even had one than the UK at some stage too ,I just want a Warm summer 24c to 28c for at least 2 weeks then I'll be happy but on the other hand if its extreme temperature I want our record of 33.3c smashed by 2 or 3c

.Donegal.

UKMO have dropped talk of an easterly from their outlook.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121677471#Comment_121677471

Shows what little they know or how fickle forecasting beyond 7 days is tbh

bazlers

Happy Friday peeps. (Its the best i can do 😔)

WolfeEire

Looking at the model output at the moment and walking away from the computer trying to convince myself that one 850hPa perturbation that goes under -10 is going to have more support in the next run, but...

Gonzo

A fairly noticeable shift towards cold towards the end of the 18z ensembles starting to trend colder than average.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121679720#Comment_121679720

Would probably reflect colder intrusions from the northwest which would atypical of early February. Not a raging mild outlook beyond day 8-10 based on this though

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121679720#Comment_121679720

Any models I can look at ? This sounds abit interesting 🤔 👀

Rebelbrowser

Some interest around 8 Feb on the 12z GFS

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121681864#Comment_121681864

Get the train primed and fill it with diesel

almostthere12

It is one of the coldest of the ensembles but good to see something like that popping up!

JanuarySnowstor

The thing I'm most surprised about this Winter is the UK Met Office!! For whatever reason they called it cold January and February. It almost definitely a bust now. Very unusual for them to go cold like that and even more so to get it wrong. Perhaps recent trends to read a lot into Strat and background signals is their mistake! I'd doubt the usually Conservative Met Office will be fooled again.

Also worth a mention that Met Eireann refused to go the cold route and boy were they right!

rooney30

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121682263#Comment_121682263

Your comments regarding met Éireann don’t hold water . They don’t really do long range forecasts in as much detail as the UK met office does , It’s easy to be right when your forecasting at most 5 days ahead

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121682263#Comment_121682263

There is a depth of old school intuition forecasting retired from the UKMO that hasn't been replaced imho

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121682546#Comment_121682546

Replaced by snowflakes perhaps 😆

pauldry

Well for me there certainly seems to be another cold spell brewing in February. It may not last more than a few days but I can envisage places in Ireland and Britain seeing some snow so I wouldn't completely write off the UK Met Office forecast just yet.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121682947#Comment_121682947

They got the forecast very wrong imo. Several weeks of blocking lasting all through January and then into a cold February. Outside of Scotland which got some proper cold and snow most of the UK and Ireland has just seen a few cold days and and nights with frost and lots of mild either side of that and not a single flake of snow. Met Eireann totally called it spot on.

I think there will be a cold spell in second half of February but will probably end up similar to the last one, mostly Scotland again and maybe parts of Northern Ireland with milder and dryer conditions further south. We will see.

nacho libre

If the UKMO were consistently talking about westerlies taking over they would not suddenly drop it. Someone mentioned intuition earlier, well it seems to me if the UKMO forecasters abandoned it, the Met Eireann forecasters didn't because if they had relied purely on the EC 46 they would have been wrong too. The EC46 showed a long lasting cold spell, bar the last week of January. They also showed most of February being blocked only to water it down. It might have changed again since.

Rebelbrowser

A brief cold spell around 7 February is there again on the GFS this morning. MTC hints at the same this morning too. Nothing to write home about but hopefully it's showing a trend that develops into something more interesting.

Would accord btw with the first of Buchans cold spells ( https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buchan_Spells ) which rarely ever happens. I remember Brendan McWilliams writing about these in his IT article in ca 1991, either in advance of or at the time of the Feb 7 1991 snows in Ireland. I took them as gospel and awaited every February for the next while my guaranteed snow....

WolfeEire

Overall, temperatures look like returning to closer to average, if not a fraction below, beyond the first week of February. Little sign of prolonged cold showing up right now. It does look 'February like' as we head beyond the first week with transient spells of cold (NW), milder (SW), cold (NW) etc.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121688969#Comment_121688969

The below image shows near-surface air temperatures from the 06z GEFS ensembles. A milder than average to week to come from February 1st to 8th and turning cooler/colder thereafter.

pureza

Interesting

typhoony

Most of the models showing us on a knife-edge between the Mild and Cold towards the end of next week, think we'll probably end up on the mild side although with a significant cooling over Scandinavia I wouldn't be surprised if a scandi high develops over the next few weeks