FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Rebelbrowser

06z GFS just rolling out seems to have an Easterly forming well in FI, will post properly once the run is finished. Its in the bag....

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121693933#Comment_121693933

For when Exactly? hope it's still within first 2 weeks of February 😀

Gonzo

It's a bit of a failed easterly if it verified. Not long fetch with winds in from the east over central Europe but sourced from the SE of Europe, too much mild air mixing.

Rebelbrowser

Gonzo is probably right, its as per below, better than nothing...

Gonzo

The EC46 is going for an extensive cold spell beginning mid February and lasting into 1st week of March with winds in from the north initially and becoming more easterly as we head towards the end of February. Right now I'm not buying into a 3 week cold spell. We've been here before very recently with models showing weeks upon weeks of extensive blocking only for us to end up with a few cold days in the end and very much on the edge of cold and the Atlantic coming back very quickly. We shall see.

The first half of February still on track to be very mild so any cold spell we do get in the second half is going to have to be a direct hit major cold spell to unravel the warmer than average temperature anomaly that is likely to be set up first half of February.

nacho libre

I think I have model fatigue syndrome. Prior to the last cold spell I was following every run. Any run I see showing cold now I expect it to be scuppered by iberian heights or a butterfly flapping its wing in Chile causing less mountain torque to happen somewhere which in turn prevents us going into the freezer.

Billcarson

After the last spell I didn't really expect anything till 2nd half of Feb anyway. So I haven't been following the models too closely of late.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121694575#Comment_121694575

Ye I'm only taking all this with a pinch of salt hopefully we get snow ❄️ as I'm in Dublin for the next 2 or 3 weeks

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121696027#Comment_121696027

GFS op run is looking interesting with attempts at blocking highs in the Atlantic. A change is certainly afoot post first week of Feb. Negative AO and neutral (at best) NAO.

ascophyllum

Massive temperature anomaly over Canada:

https://twitter.com/Ventuskycom/status/1752308746179559518?t=9jC08iGW2pv1oWMtYB31Lg&s=19

It must have some downstream effect for us in killing off the jetstream for a while anyway? Am I right in thinking our februarys are usually dominated by strong lows associated with the cold spilling out from Canada and cranking up the jet?

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121696072#Comment_121696072

yes. that would be the norm for us in Feb

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121696042#Comment_121696042

I'll keep an eye on models but not getting excited by any means but it's a start

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121696137#Comment_121696137

Nor me. GFS picks up trends very well at a distance for the reasons we have mentioned here before. It is worth noting how the GFS is already picking up on the negative AO and neutral NAO for the period.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121696072#Comment_121696072

Similar madness to the temperatures in parts of the southern hemisphere last summer ( their winter). If these events aren't serious red flags I don't know what are.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121696072#Comment_121696072

This graphic is even more stark

WolfeEire

The ECM follows the GFS op by extending heights over Greenland and flattening the jetstream which would be in keeping with the neutral NAO outlook.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121696405#Comment_121696405

What's causing this ? Sudden stratospheric warming or just fluke

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121696819#Comment_121696819

I would say a strong El Niño in the eastern Pacific Ocean is a primary cause of these conditions.

snowgal

Well I’ll take the hype on this one, I feel it’s the last of chances, and I feel there’s something brewing just right in this set up! Im aboard the train 😁❄️

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121696841#Comment_121696841

Surely also climate change in conjunction with el nino is part of the reason.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121696841#Comment_121696841

Oh of course I had forgotten that ,wonder if those warm temperatures will have a knock on effect with our weather be it mild or cold 🥶 I don't know

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121696861#Comment_121696861

I'm not sure they've actually laid the track for the train, let alone built the train, really let alone sold tickets and let anyone on board yet! But best be early I suppose....

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121697632#Comment_121697632

Are you sure steam has even been invented 😂

almostthere12

Some quite interesting evolutions of the low pressure swinging our way around 8th and 9th Feb.

The ECM and GFS yesterday on the 12zs went with a slider and a Greenland high, other models have it bowling right through us as does the GFS this morning. However the CFS has another evolution again, the low is forced north which produces a Scandi high and then a prolonged easterly from around the 21st of Feb into early March:

bloopy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121697632#Comment_121697632

Got a box with some wheels drawn on it.

Taking it out later on.

PukkaStukka

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121699145#Comment_121699145

I'm having a crap day but this made me smile 🤣

WolfeEire

Cold marches into eastern and northern Europe toward the end of the first week of February. Temperatures remaining above average for Ireland and Britain during the same period. On Day 10, IE/UK remain much milder than other Northern Hemisphere locations at the same latitude.

WolfeEire

The Canadian GEM model signals a turn to colder weather from the end of the first week of February. The jetstream takes a more southerly trajectory allowing colder air to seep south. Very much in line with the forecast deep negative AO and a neutral NAO.

The snow cover chart based on the op run. The ensembles will be out later and the likelihood of the op run being a cold outlier are high.

Gonzo

At this stage I feel February for the most part will be mild and Atlantic dominated. Second half of February looks less mild with more average temperatures but still will probably be Atlantic dominated for the most part with maybe a glancing blow of cold from the north. I'm not expecting much for February at this stage. This could easily end up being another completely snowless winter at least here in Meath and most of the snow starved east, midlands and south. No doubt there will be flakes in March and April.

The majority of our proper cold and snowy periods were often picked up in the models 3 weeks prior such as the December 2010 and February/March 2018. At the moment I'm seeing very little sign of anything remotely exciting in the models. If there was something really exciting for mid February into the 3th week of February we would be seeing it already picking up by the GFS. All I'm seeing at best is 24 hour topplers from the north with the Atlantic rolling back in. Hope i'm wrong but I broke all my straws about 3 weeks ago and will buy more for next winter when the time comes.