FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121509938#Comment_121509938

This is what i'm hoping as well, that we will start on a journey to somewhere exciting from around Christmas Day onwards. We've had so many wobbles and busts as well as dry largely snowless cold spells in recent years that this winter I want the real deal and I'm settling for nothing less. It doesn't have to be a 7 to 10 day freeze up but a few days of cold and snowy weather with lying snow would do. If we can't get a proper unstable easterly or north-easterly this winter I would prefer if things just stayed mild throughout, I don't want the consolation prize from the Atlantic.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121510325#Comment_121510325

My mother bought into that shite by RSVP on Saturday. Posting that on my family's WhatsApp page ,expectinga white xmas. I didn't have the heart to tell her it was bs ,lol.

squonk

Ah I mean this is Irelabd! I know there were a few official white Cheyenne but they were few and far between. Off acting the year seems generally warmer than last year. You’d really want to think about things if you were expecting a current cold snap in time for Christmas Day at this stage. Here in western Ireland there’s bad only been one properly frosty day so far this year.

pureza

Wrong thread

Edit

nacho libre

The latest GFS teasing a possible Scandi high in 13 -14 days time. I mean what could possibly go wrong

pauldry

Look at the level of uncertainty for Saturday. This is Sligo. It will be anything from 0c to 13c

That's a great help GFS.

UK Met Office says it will be a White Xmas in UK as likely a snowflake will fall on 25th

Gonzo

Hopefully Christmas Day period will become clearer by tomorrow or Wednesday at the latest, however any low level cold that does come will probably be very short lived.

As for the GFS 18z overall it's a further swing towards mild with the colder ensemble members not as cold as recent runs.

OldRio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121509880#Comment_121509880

IMHO I can tell you what Christmas Day will be like without all these high tech charts and computer models. (Basically speculation wrapped up in wish fulfilment)

pauldry

Ya usually there's so much going on I forget about the weather for a few hours till I realise its cold and wet outside around Mass time.

Dazler97

Is all the cold gone from models??

Hooter23

There is cold air over the christmas time and light winds some days...we could end up much colder than it looks if we get freezing fog...its the perfect time of year for it...

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121514918#Comment_121514918

The cold was killed the killing blow since Sunday morning on the models, there was some uncertainty remaining up to last night but the cold looked far from certain most of the time with no real cross model agreement to cold at any stage. There was always a chance things could turn cold for Christmas, the modeling on Saturday was starting to look decent but the vast majority of the modeling has been mild and Atlantic driven since Sunday morning and now we look relatively mild all the way to 2024 with no real cold on the models which looks like staying well to our north.

The problem is all that high pressure over Iberia going nowhere fast and lack of northern blocking so we are as flat as a pancake. Hopefully we will be looking at something much more season at some stage in January. We need to get rid of those heights over southern Europe for starters, as long as that remains there we ain't going to be seeing much real cold.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121514950#Comment_121514950

I hope so 🙏 I wasn't expecting snow at Christmas as where actually more likely to have it at Easter than Christmas let's hope January will be cold 😅

giveitholly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121514920#Comment_121514920

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121514950#Comment_121514950

So is it going to be cold or mild?

nacho libre

A couple of tweaks to this and it's beast from the east time. We just need those Iberian heights to do one and the pv to fully vacate Greenland.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121515068#Comment_121515068

Despite the models not really working out in our favour for Christmas the winter 2023/2024 Forecasts are still on track. Every forecast I watched or listened to at the start of December went for a milder than average December with maybe hints of a cooling trend towards the end of the month with Christmas being 50/50 mild vs cold so nowhere was promising properly cold weather for December.

However depending on which forecast you listen to, some are predicting an SSW to take place early to mid January with cold potential building as we progress through January. Some forecasts are going for January as the coldest month of the winter while others are hinting more towards February delivering the greatest cold potential but all forecasts originally favored December as the one almost guaranteed mild month of the winter and that is exactly what we have gotten so far.

The important thing will be the SSW, will it happen in time, will it be a proper split or just a displacement. Will it have any affects on our weather, we could get set up for a direct hit noteworthy cold spell with oceans of blocking or we could end up on the mild side of the block. If the SSW happens too late into February then that would have more impacts on March rather than the winter itself so alot needs to happen, all we can do is enjoy the Christmas holidays and hope the charts start turning much more interesting into the final week of December, but I hope we are not left in our usual position of always chasing cold 10 days out by the time we get to mid February. I'm sure we will have more than one rollercoaster to contend with between now and end of February, weather it works out for us or not remains to be seen.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121515316#Comment_121515316

Oh no we'd want a SSW now as it takes 3 weeks or so for it to be felt , If that happens in mid January it may be like 2018 all over again without the storm Emma, anyway I'm always hoping glass is always half full especially with me around lol 😆 hopefully we get some snow between now and mid February beyond that it's not fun as days are getting longer etc thanks for all the information Gonzo your a star 🌟 😊

pauldry

This was showing 0c to 13c spread yesterday. Not now. BBC have even said Northern Ireland will be 12c Xmas eve and 9c Xmas Day. That's that then.

Will we ever get a White Xmas again if it's getting warmer each year?

Cork2021

In all honesty we only have two real seasons now. That’s Spring and Autumn

pad199207

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121515533#Comment_121515533

Had a white Christmas here last year

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121515618#Comment_121515618

In fairness that's kind of always been the case.

In the past winters were definitely a bit colder and snowier. But then most summers were a little bit cooler too. So the difference between the seasons wasn't that much bigger in the past really.

Hoping for and expecting snow in Ireland in December is always a bit futile though. Our best chance is usually mid January to early March - even though by early March it's hard for it to settle and most people's minds have turned to summer.

I love snow but am trying to look at the positives - at least there'll be no disruption to travel, flights, and shopping etc.

Hopefully we get lots in mid January when it'll be less disruptive and will help keep our minds off the January blues!

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121515788#Comment_121515788

And if winters are indeed going to be less cold with ever lessening amounts of snow events but summers continue to be warmer as well, I'm totally fine with that 😊

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121515618#Comment_121515618

Do we even get proper autumns anymore? They are becoming rubbish aswell. This autumn was utter crap must have been up there with the warmest on record. I took that picture in the middle of October.

Meteorite58

Mod Note: Some interesting posts above but more suited to the Winter discussion thread. Better to keep this thread to discussing FI Charts at +120hrs and onwards.

pauldry

GFS pub run slightly cooler again. Just leave us alone at this stage models. Why are they still flipping? Mild probably favored but pub run just messing with us one last time.

pauldry

Windy going for a storm Xmas morning. Winds stronger than Thursday comings which will gust to 100kph. Wer this Christmas forecast to materialise it would bring winds up to 120kph.

Confidence is low though as 6 days away.

nacho libre

Who needs a SSW if this comes off!

Gonzo

Pub run is a cold outlier from 1st January to the 4th which is far as we can go. Overall probably ever so slightly less wetter than previous runs.

Overall mostly mild or very mild until December 26th and then mostly average or slightly cooler than average temperatures with a drying trend into the first week of January.

nacho libre

I think support for something colder may grow in the next few days. We could start to see some more interesting output in the days ahead