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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2023/2024 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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01-12-2023 12:19pm#1
Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing CHARTS in the shorter range timeframe up to T120 hours (next 5 days) for Winter 2023/2024
If your post does not specifically relate to a chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved
Thanks
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Autumn 2023 finished on a very chilly note after what was a mostly mild to warm season with plenty of rain. It is currently mostly dry across the country and very frosty so a very seasonal start to winter 2023/2024. It should remain mostly dry until mid week but showers across some coastal parts of the country cannot be ruled out and these could contain hail or sleet over the weekend, although many areas will stay dry throughout the weekend.
Temperatures between now and Tuesday not much higher than 4 or 5C.
From Wednesday rain and much milder air will sweep in from the west with temperatures quickly going back into double figures and it could become very windy as well.
Not much rain over the coming 5 days other than a few showers but the rain will be gathering right at the very end of this period.
Post edited by Gonzo on4
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Entering a more unsettled spell of weather from later Tuesday, strong frontal winds and heavy rain on Weds, quite windy in the SW and along coastal areas, blustery overland. Models beggining to show a storm on Thursday, a few of them brining very strong winds into Ireland but not all in agreement yet on track or strength so a bit to go yet but leaning towards very strong winds and heavy rain with high totals showing up especially in the SW, S, SE higher ground in the E, parts of the W.
Edit: copied and moved post from wrong thread 😴
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A lot of energy out in the Atlantic over the weekend, some quick moving areas of LP about, GFS and UKMO showing one packing a punch moving near or over Ireland on Sunday, will see if anything comes of it.
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More models looking windy to very windy to stormy on Sunday, fast moving, goes past or through relatively quick. A bit to go yet to see if it holds its track and intensity but one to watch.
UKMO in steroids theses days, usually turns down the dial closer to the event.
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Very fast jet and Isobars tightening over Ireland increasingly so from Weds giving a breezy to blustery day more so towards evening and getting increasingly windy through Thursday countrywide, quite strong in coastal counties especially Northern, all associated with a Storm with a very large Wind Field which is set to form and move down past the the NW of Scotland , through the North sea and into Northern Europe. Looks like it could be named, could bring very strong winds to the UK and into the likes of Holland , Denmark and Germany.
Quite wet on Thursday, becoming increasingly cooler, chance of some wintry showers towards Fri in Northern counties, may not last long though as the weather could switch milder again.
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ICON has reverted from mild to cold again. ECMWF often quite similar to the ICON model so we will see what this evening's run brings. Comparison between latest run (top) and earlier run of the ICON (bottom) for lunchtime Christmas Eve. Such drastic changes from run to run.
The GEM and the GFS are a tad colder from the 233rd to 25th but it is a glancing blow of cold rather than anything overly wintry. Wintry showers for NW and N areas perhaps.
Overall, the fluctuations from run to run are utterly chaotic. What is consistent is a short cold snap and a raging jet stream over the north of the Ireland. This is reflected in the ensembles.
An example of the chaos can be seen in the GEM for the past two runs. The latest run is top showing a deep low barrelling toward us whereas the 00z was not showing anything of the kind.
Post edited by WolfeEire onwww.x.com/wolfeeire
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Overall, seasonal weather this Christmas weekend into Monday is favoured but the snow risk is low away from high ground in the north. There is plenty of scope 7 days out from the Big Day for colder/milder scenarios. Ireland is very much on the edge of the cold/mild airmasses for the period.
Gfs upgrade in the 00z in terms of cold potential for the weekend into early next week. 00z (top) compared to 18z (bottom). The mean temp would not be conducive to much wintry activity but there is a definite shift from a mild outcome. Current model output suggests Saturday into Christmas Eve the most likely time period for any colder airmass to begin impacting Ireland, lasting up to and including Christmas Day.
ECM is a tad cooler than the 12z as the latter was compared to the previous run. Average temps for the time of year on Christmas Day are forecast. Rather 'benign' as Met Éireann might say! Either way, it's not the blowtorch that was threatened 24 hours ago.
The Korean KMA keeps it cool/cold from Christmas Eve through to December 30th
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/kmae_cartes.php?ech=12&code=0&carte=0&mode=1&archive=0
The Navgem is all rather fleeting and remains cool from the weekend beyond
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=6&mode=1
Icon 850s below
Gem has a two day cold snap with any wintry activity confined most likely to high ground and north Connacht and Ulster
The UKMO is not dissimilar to the GEM and downgrades the cold potential on previous runs. It's all rather fleeting
Post edited by WolfeEire onwww.x.com/wolfeeire
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The Azores High is dictating all but I do not think the forecast is locked in yet. Based on current output, Christmas Day will not be dissimilar today if not a degree or two cooler. I would say with 6 days to go until Christmas Day there will be further changes in the positioning of that high. Its northerly position is being forced by two shortwaves emanating from its southwest and the troughing activity over Scandinavia. If the projected development of those three systems alters over the next days then so will the position of the high. We are on the border of two different airmasses so we could end up going much milder or much cooler.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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I feel like Wicklow could go to an orange level wind warning tomorrow. The centre of the storm is passing into Sweden but the wind field is very significant with this one.
I assume it's a combination of the wind direction and Wicklow mountain orientation but the winds are looking much stronger here than anywhere else in the country. Looking at Met Eireann's hourly forecast it's showing stronger mean speeds and gusts than any recent storm we've had. All of the high res models showing widespread orange level gusts in the county tomorrow, and HARMONIE showing orange level mean wind speed too.
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Very big seas off Atlantic coasts with strong onshore breezes associated with now named Storm Pia . Prolonged strong winds over land from later Weds through much of Thurs. Rain not a huge issue but probably a good runoff from higher terrain in the W, NW and N and a few inland elevated areas.
Relatively mild at around 10 or 11C during Thurs.
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Some very big rainfall totals for the 24hrs into Weds afternoon and a lot of it will have fallen overnight into early morning so spot flooding a risk.
More counties could be added to the rainfall warnings. Becoming breezy to windy across the country later Tues into Weds, quite windy along W, NW, N, NE and later into the SW, S, SE and E coastal areas.
Weds evening set to become very windy or even stormy in the SW or W or both and along S, SE, W coasts and very strong winds overland into Thurs and only slowly moderating , remaining blustery in the Northern half of the country into the evening/ night . Would expect warnings, mostly yellow and possibly close to Orange in the SW or W or both.
After the frontal rains go through on Weds turning more convective in nature with hail and thunderstorms possible especially along Atlantic counties as we are under a very cold upper pool, some moving inland and squally in nature. Some sleet showers also in the mix. A lot of vorticity and shear in the atmosphere... wonder will we hear of any funnels or Tornadoes.
Turning cooler then of late and more so given the windchill effect. A much rougher passage of weather then of late with strong winds, high rainfall and cold temperatures.
Very high sea states, want to keep an eye on those high tides on Weds and Thurs ( Spring tides ) along the Atlantic Seaboard, especially Thurs with all the run off from the heavy rain into Weds especially around the SW, S coasts.
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The Ecmwf and Gfs models showing the risk of a band of rain moving northwards on later Friday night into Saturday morning bumping into colder air across the west, northwest and north and turning to snow for places. This needs to be watched and potentially could give the first real snowfall of the winter season. Some higher resolution models also showing this.
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A bit to go yet with Saturdays system. Deepening on approach but so far keeping the strongest winds to coastal areas in the W, SW, S, SE and blustery overland. Very wet again along the W and SW and could see some wintry falls in the NW, N and on elevated ground in the W and maybe a few more spots.
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Fax chart for Saturday evening looks rough, especially out west. The atlantic well and truly in control.
Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/
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The large system on Saturday showing different tracks on the main models but currently does not look to produce storm force winds on land, not as tight isobars, looks worse than what it will probably produce. Relatively slow moving but the position of the center crossing the country keeps the strongest winds offshore. Windy certainly around the coastal areas may warrant yellow warnings, maybe orange sea area warnings.
Some models showing the initial front to cross the country early Saturday as brining heavy rain and blustery conditions. A lot of rain to come between here and Sunday with Atlantic coastal counties getting the most.
Parameters present for Thunderstorm activity on Saturday following the front in the more unstable airmass but mostly around the coasts over water, CAPE is not huge but plenty of LLS and DLS with decent Lapse rates at times, will see if a few migrate further inland. A lot of Vorticity in the system and very cold uppers all aiding convection. Perhaps more opportunities for Tornadoes but as ever relatively low chance, squally showers with downdraughts and hail showers possible, sleety on higher ground.
Wintry further North Fri into Saturday. Could be a fair dump of wet sleet to snow on Saturday in the NW, N and high ground in the W perhaps as the front meets the colder airmass. Still windy on Sunday with showers mainly along Atlantic coastal areas. Looks a lot drier and calmer for Bank Holiday Monday at present.
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Don't like the look of this at all, flooding I'd imagine is going to be a problem. We've had sustained high winds for a while now , so would imagine anything likely to be blown over already has been so hopefully wind, though strong enough, likely isn't going to be the main factor here. The ground here is totally sodden, nearby "Kilbogget Park" is already flooding in places i've rarely seen before.
Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/
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A lot of excitement now in other threads for the potential for some real cold from ca. 15 January onwards, but in the shorter term there is a bit of an easterly with cold uppers from this Sunday with some chance of white gold falling from streamers (i.e, for the uninitiated, showers of snow that develop over the Irish sea from the interaction between sufficiently cold air and the warmer sea below). That said, the latest GFS at 6z doesn't support any snow unfortunately....
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Hp becoming dominant, slack airs, very low levels of precipitation, fog over the weekend especially Sunday morning and again possibly Sun night. Widespread frosts becoming a feature and getting colder as the days go on, low temperatures during the day, freezing early at night especially from Sunday could see freezing before or just after dark from Monday. Good sunshine levels Fri, Sat and for a good part of the country on Sunday , foggy conditions might be slow to clear and lift in parts of the Southern half of the country. GFS is a bit less cold as the week goes on but remains frosty at night, ECM keeps it very cold and sees some days struggling to get up a few degrees in places with widespread hard frosts.
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Lovely calm,cool spell coming up, doesn't look like much wintry precipitation but I don't mind that after the autumn and December we just had. By Monday it looks likely that there will be a chilly breeze on the east and south east coasts with perhaps some snizzle and low cloud, too early to call much details on that though. I'll take what's on offer below any day :)
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