Storm Elin⚠️ Saturday 9th Dec 2023 ( also Storm Fergus Sun 10th )

Carol25

Why isn’t Mayo in an orange warning? West Galway also?

TracyMartell

Any chance of a red in Dublin? I’d love to leave work

ascophyllum

Mace Head 74, gusting 102 at 7am, Belmullet calm, maybe that strong core of winds that Arome and Arpege showed hitting West Mayo has dropped a bit further south?

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121473845#Comment_121473845

Doesn't seem to be mentioned in the media much yet. People will have plans for the day and everybody has dialled out of the weather.

Too much crying wolf with naming these storms anyway.

This could indeed be the one to catch a lot of people.

ascophyllum

Mace Head gusting 98 and Athenry gusting 74 which is fairly breezy for that area, starting to get fairly wild in West Mayo now, I've no instruments but feels like it's gusting 90+ or so

nacho libre

I was over in Knock earlier, its not too bad there yet. I think the worst of winds are starting from now on. I have a feeling the winds won't be as strong as arome suggested for most areas, if they were more regions would be included in the Met Eireann orange warning

typhoony

Here in south Galway this has almost been as windy as the over-hyped storm of a few weeks ago, you expect orange warnings should have been issued country-wide and a lot earlier

ascophyllum

Do Met Eireann have access to more accurate models than Arome? I thought it was as good as it gets, GFS and WRF going for much lower windspeeds, GFS hasn't been great of late but WRF is often on the money. That purple patch on Arome aiming for West Mayo freaked me out last night, I don't think we've had mean winds over 80km for a very long time.

ninebeanrows

Peak gust so far is 55 knots at Mace Head

Oscar Bravo

9am

Mace Head gusting 55 knots (102 Km/h). Belmullet almost calm at 7 knots.

ninebeanrows

850hPa wind peak in east at 3pm is probably the biggest concern, any showers moving through could drag down fairly severe wind gusts

and coinciding with a busy time of the day

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121473962#Comment_121473962

I am not sure to be honest, but if they are backing that model's take on things, then an orange warning should have been issued for a few more counties.

ninebeanrows

Wind has picked up appreciably in NCD in last 30 minutes.

finlma

The overhyped storm that completely flooded the towns of Clarinbridge and Kinvara in South Galway. 🤔

This isn't a patch on it.

Mav11

Wind starting to pick up here now, south county Dublin. It has been very calm up to this!

Donegal Ken

Based on Met Eireanns own Ensemble Prediction System Sligo, Leitrim should also be under that orange warning with winds peaking between 12pm to 6pm. The worst of the winds are still yet to come for these areas.

muddypaws

I'm playing soccer in Sligo town at 1pm, not sure if it would be cancelled under an orange warning but not looking forward to it or the drive home in a high sided van afterwards.

Very calm here in West Sligo at the moment.

Cluedo Monopoly

Windy in Galway. Seems like a warm wind too.

Edit: went for a walk and it actually isn't bad at all. Breezy with passing showers.

DOCARCH

Increasingly windy in Greystones. Gusting 47 knots now.

Hope the Christmas market marquee survives the day!

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121473962#Comment_121473962

Met Eireann use a hybrid model of AROME and HARMONIE for short range forecasting. HARMONIE doesn't cover much of the West but looking at the Mace Head readings alongside the 00z AROME run it's fairly accurate at the moment.

AROME 00z not showing anything too crazy for Mayo, 90-100km/h gusts mainly with northern coastal areas maybe getting up to 110km/h. Mean speeds in the 50-60km/h range for most areas with coastal areas going to 70 in places.

SouthWesterly

At least the south west escaped it . It's windy out there.

pauldry

Just wondering is this system further South than anticipated. Around now there was a sharp arc entering NW yesterday. Its blunted on the latest satellite and high gusts are in the South of Connaught. Around 10kph in Sligo at 10am. Mey Eireann had gusts for here at 10am as 90kph. They couldn't be that wrong. Did I miss something?

adocholiday

AROME 06z just rolling out now and has a very narrow band of strong gusts moving very quickly across the country, mostly clearing the east coast by 4 or 5pm

nacho libre

So it looks like last night's arome run was overcooking it for the west, Met Eireann must have discounted it and gone with their own in house model. Based on current runs that looks to have been the correct call.

antodeco

Standing side of a football pitch at the moment in West Dublin. Very windy. Howling in the distance. Bit of a chill bite to it too. Definitely feel in the air that something isn't right

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121474179#Comment_121474179

Almost a Direct hit on n Dublin there

dsmythy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121474038#Comment_121474038

Looks like low probability no?

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121474191#Comment_121474191

Seems it was overcooking it in general but if the 06z is right then parts of Meath and N Dublin could see up to red level gusts for a short period of time around lunchtime. Met Eireann have in the past hour or so downgraded the winds for S Wicklow. We were looking at mean speeds up to 70km/h and gusts over 100km/h which is unusual for this area but now more usual 50-60km/h mean winds and gusts in the low 90s.

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121474202#Comment_121474202

Yeah Meath and N Dublin very much in the firing line for red level gusts there if that's accurate.

Oscar Bravo

A big downgrade on the Knock TAF. Now only forecasting a small chance of gusts up to 40 knots.

Donegal Airport also amended max gusts 48 knots.

adocholiday

For what it's worth I'd say AROME has overcooked that wind potential in the 06z too. Looking at the 10am frame it has nearly 150km/h gusts for the Achill area but nothing like that is being reported

DOCARCH

Gusting 55 knots now in Greystones.

pauldry

Are these models any use at all. That's like a computer virus it's so wrong. It will probably be Windy later as the back end of low hits. But Met Eireann in the last hour had 80kph gust for Sligo at 11am. Its 11am now. Max wind has been 30kph. If they can't predict 1hr in advance it proves its all a bot that's doing them at weekends and not people.

.Donegal.

Exceptionally heavy rain towards the end of this frame around Malin head area

zell12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121474006#Comment_121474006

High tide is at ~14:45

Oscar Bravo

11am Dublin Airport TAF also shows a big downgrade. Max gusts of 45 knots now.

pureza

Gusting to 70kmh at the moment in Arklow

Nothing dramatic

Hippodrome Song Owl

It feels pretty gusty here in North Kildare now. Wish I wasn't working outside in it anyway!

Oscar Bravo

1130

Casement Gusting 44 knots

Dublin Airport 42 knots

Knock 42 knots

NIMAN

Some serious rain up here in North Donegal.

Seeing flooding in fields that have never flooded before.

LOT of water on roads that were never this wet before.

Archeron

Christmas market in botanic gardens cancelled. Very gusty in Glasnevin

Oscar Bravo

Some heavy showers just off the SW coast with lightning.

Hontou

Very windy in South Longford between 10am and 11am. Some tree branches down in the garden and the top of my metal chimney has blown off. Seemed to be about 20 minutes of very strong gusts around 10:30am. Calmer now.

squarecircles

STORM FERGUS NAMED FOR TOMORROW

Status Orange - Wind warning for Clare, Galway, Mayo

• Met Éireann Weather Warning
• Very strong onshore winds due to Storm Fergus, coupled with high waves and high tides.
• 
  
• Potential impacts:
• Localised coastal flooding and wave overtopping
• Valid: 15:00 Sunday 10/12/2023 to 20:00 Sunday 10/12/2023
• Issued: 11:44 Saturday 09/12/2023

ednwireland

Is the storm for Sunday afternoon evening ? That looks much nastier. Except it's missing the NW at the moment 😀

Oops just read the post above !

esposito

Ah jaysus. Hopefully Fergus is the last of the storms for this winter 👎

pureza

Gusting over 80 kmh in Arklow Currently

Oscar Bravo

Midday:

Casement gusting 51 knots(94km/h)

Mace head 49 knots

Dunsany 46 knots

Meteorite58

Yeah didnt get the initiall wind speeds that AROME was showing for the West, will see what Dublin/ Wicklow gets in the next hour or two.

UKMO might be a fair representation of the winds so far and maybe topping 90 -100 km/h around the East in the afternoon.

Storm 10

West gone orange now for tomorrow with a new storm Fergus