EV Depreciation

Gumbo · 30-12-2023 1:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121549831#Comment_121549831

During Covid it was possible.

Gumbo · 30-12-2023 1:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121549835#Comment_121549835

Our G30 520d’s have it.

MojoMaker · 30-12-2023 1:24pm

I bought an EV for environmental reasons, to contribute in my own small way. It was an easy transition and after testing the principle of use case vs value vs effect we moved to become a 2 EV household after a little less than a year.

Fossil-fuelled vehicles gone from our house and not missed. Everything about them has been both easier and cheaper to manage as a bonus upside.

Had the EVs been more expensive to run I would have done it anyway, they are simply vastly superior forms of personal transport.

Casati · 30-12-2023 1:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121549840#Comment_121549840

Yeah but is anybody trading in any 221 EV for a 241 for anything remotely close to that now?

Ev fan · 30-12-2023 1:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121546759#Comment_121546759

Excellent logical summary. I bought a Born this year getting a very good trade in on my 211 ID3. Since then my car has lost probably 20% in value depreciation plus another 2/3k because of new car price drops. I don't care now and won't until I go to trade again likely to be 2026. The issue then will be because EVs' are on a steep development curve 2026 cars could have significantly better batteries etc .......... which will make my older car less desirable. Again I will worry about that when the time comes. BTW I love the car - easy/smooth/quiet/comfortable driving and cheap to run. My only concern would be to see a large improvement in charging infrastructure.

FaaF · 30-12-2023 1:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121549721#Comment_121549721

The statement that "18.59% of new cars sold this year were EV (i.e full electric). By definition that's over 81% of most drivers bought something else that suited them better." is completely inaccurate.

I'd argue that the percentage of people driving diesels that don't suit them, whether they know it themselves or not, is a very significant number - well in excess of the 18.59% of EV buyers who did their research, left aside a lot of the media scaremongering and bought what actually suited the types of journeys they are doing.

When you look at the average journey lengths faced by Irish drivers, there's no way diesel fueled vehicles should be selling in the numbers they are - but EVs are eating away at the percentage sales by an increasing number each year.

Casati · 30-12-2023 1:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121549881#Comment_121549881

So what if you think people have bought the wrong cars - what they believe as car buyers is more important as it's their money they are spending, not yours. Unfortunately your own personal feelings don't trump the actual buyer behaviour.

Also if my stats are 'completely inaccurate' then please enlighten me- I got them off beepbeep.ie

FaaF · 30-12-2023 1:58pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121549931#Comment_121549931

I'm not saying the stats of percentage EV buyers are wrong. I'm more referring to the statement that they bought what suited them better. There are plenty of people driving diesel vehicles that rarely, if ever, venture on journeys beyond 3-4 miles.

If it weren't for media scaremongering, perhaps they would have already made the move to EV - though even petrol would be a much better choice over diesel.

In a lot of cases, people are driving diesels due to the manufacturers quoted MPG figures, completely irrelevant to such short journeys (or any for that matter) and the cheap tax available due to the past push by government towards diesel.

josip · 30-12-2023 2:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121549721#Comment_121549721

I doubt think it's valid to include the hybrid numbers in your totals. They're the inbetweeners and belong to neither side. Also looking at the trends, I think 2023 is the last year you will be able to make the above statement. In 2024, BEV will overtake diesel. We'll know by the end of Q1. Still way too many diesels being sold, but at last things heading in the right direction, albeit slower than hoped. Anyone buying a 241 diesel will need to be holding on to it for its lifetime I think. The country's love affair with diesel is drawing to a close and the appetite for them is no longer there.

Casati · 30-12-2023 2:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121549957#Comment_121549957

I could argue that many EV shouldn't have bought them either - I believe many buyers have paid far too much for cars they didn't need and have wasted a fortune now with massive depreciation - but they obviously felt that other more suitable cars were flawed and ultimately as they are spending the money that's all that matters.

Focusing on average journey lengths and deciding what car people should buy is stupid, there are a whole range of other factors that go into making that decision - cost, depreciation, ability to charge, irregular journey lengths, number of seats, spec, warranty, performance, looks, brand, dealership relationship, car reviews etc etc.

I can see EV sales growing for sure- the quality of the cars is getting better and the pricing drops led by Tesla and now VW will attract a lot more buyers into EV's - but that's not to say that all EV's are attractive purchases or suitable for all buyers. and some folks collecting new 241's that will tumble massive in value in a years time.

waterwelly · 30-12-2023 2:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121549856#Comment_121549856

At this stage I thought people had moved on from claiming EV's are any sort of good for the environment.

If people really cared about the environment they would cycle, walk, use public transport etc.

Buying an EV is easy, changing your lifestyle completely is tough though.

FaaF · 30-12-2023 2:23pm

Sure, you could argue that some owners of EV's have bought a vehicle that doesn't suit them - but it's a much lower proportion because those buying EV's tend to look at all the relevant factors before making their decision as it's breaking from the norm. Much easier to buy diesel simply because "it's the done thing".

Past pricing of EVs, and depreciation faced after purchasing at those prices, is now irrelevant if deciding whether to buy a Tesla Model 3, or whatever, today.

Sure, EV manufacturers could cut pricing further. So too could ICE manufacturers. The profit margins, however, can be used to estimate then likelihood of that happening. Tesla, for example, still has reasonable margins so could cut pricing, but not to the extent that they did in 2023.

As a previous poster alluded to - we are likely to see more depreciation on a 241 diesel than a 241 EV over the coming years - and I'm referring to those for which pricing has been cut during 2023.

Casati · 30-12-2023 2:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121549991#Comment_121549991

Have a look at the stats before you make statements about my numbers being valid or invalid. I haven't included hybrids in any diesel or petrol category, I have simply talked about the percentage of BEV's (18.59%) and compared that number to everything else- i.e everything bar full EV's. Hybrids are still cars, so can you explain (logically) why you think they shouldn't be included in 'everything bar BEV's' category?

I've been hearing for years rhetoric that anybody buying a new petrol or diesel is daft and they will have to hold onto it for a lifetime- the reality is that as their sales drop, demand for used petrol and diesels is growing and they are holding their value a lot better than EV's. As diesel sales fall, used diesels (and petrols) are going to continue to see high demand. If EV's continue to see low VRT then the floodgates of cheap used EV's from UK will continue to open and drive down used prices - along with improvements in tech and a likely further reduction in new EV prices.

Gumbo · 30-12-2023 2:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121549860#Comment_121549860

I doubt anyone is trading in any car (petrol, diesel or electric) for that now.

Gumbo · 30-12-2023 2:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121549931#Comment_121549931

That’s exactly how your opinion on EV buyers should be. /End Thread.

Gumbo · 30-12-2023 2:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121549957#Comment_121549957

+100

I know of many, family included that just automatically buy diesel. One, a Nissan, constant DPF blockages due to the short city driving.

I understood the reasoning to your post. I guess others didn’t.

Oscar_Madison · 30-12-2023 4:43pm

Just looked at prices for a 2021 Hyundai Ionic 5- Jaypers it’s held its value pretty darned well compared to some other cars of a similar vintage

maidhc · 30-12-2023 4:44pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121550087#Comment_121550087

That is what I said I was doing (before you called me an angry man and to go away to another forum)…

”normal” cars are still actually holding their value ok.

joe1303l · 30-12-2023 4:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121550516#Comment_121550516

No value in them and unlikely to sell at such prices. Only 5no. 2021 cars currently on DD and all advertised by Hyundai Dealers with asking prices of €40K+. You would do well to get €35K for a 58kWh one if selling privately or trading in.

eagerv · 30-12-2023 4:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121550550#Comment_121550550

I think it was 2022 before the lower spec models were available. At about €38k they were well priced at the time. Will be interesting to see what they are worth as two year old cars.

Spipov · 30-12-2023 6:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121549881#Comment_121549881

And that 18% (including me) paid a lot more for an ev than a diesel. People have to be able to afford to buy it. Im assuming a lot couldnt afford hence kept the ICE

liamog · 30-12-2023 6:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121550842#Comment_121550842

It's called it the Osborne effect, when people put off a new purchase to hold out for something better. Tony Soba predicted it would look something like this. (chart is from 3 years ago)

There are some interesting developments in Sodium Ion batteries which should see prices dropping further than they already have. The batteries aren't better than the LFP and NMC variants that are available today, they are just cheaper.

FaaF · 30-12-2023 6:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121550883#Comment_121550883

There'll be a select few that will be telling us all that EVs will be hit with depreciation further than ICE yet again in the future as technology advances make battery tech cheaper.

They'll gloss over the fact that EV's, unlike the past, are now competitive against ICE. What new competing ICE vehicle, I wonder, would they suggest is more value than a new Tesla Model 3?

If future EV tech allows further price cuts of any significance, rest assured, ICE will also drop like a rock. We're in a completely different landscape now to that of a few years ago where significant premiums were payable to step into an EV.

maidhc · 30-12-2023 6:53pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121550966#Comment_121550966

the more dystopian view is we will all be driving horrific “appliances” that are largely funded by the vast reserves of the Chinese state until every other manufacturer is bankrupt, and then Atari jaguar etc.

allinthehead · 30-12-2023 7:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121549856#Comment_121549856

It's nice to see someone say that. I would add air quality as one of the reasons for my purchase, and the smug self satisfaction of driving powered by yesterday's sunshine.🤣

unkel · 31-12-2023 2:03am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121550550#Comment_121550550

They were €39k brand new on the road with metallic paint 2 years ago. If you sold it privately for €35k now, you would have suffered just 10% depreciation over 2 years. An equivalent diesel would have had that much depreciation on day 1 as soon as you drove off the forecourt 😂

unkel · 31-12-2023 2:05am

@liamog - "There are some interesting developments in Sodium Ion batteries which should see prices dropping further than they already have. The batteries aren't better than the LFP and NMC variants that are available today, they are just cheaper."

Sodium Ion is stalling now that the price of lithium has dropped like a brick this year. The "just cheaper" might not even hold. It can be charged below zero though, which is helpful for ultra low budget applications in vehicles (read: sub €10k plus tax Chinese EVs).

liamog · 31-12-2023 3:46pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121552723#Comment_121552723

I don't see Sodium Ion development stalling in the same year as it starts entering the market in any volume. It's has a much lower predicted floor price than current chemistries. I'd predict by 2026 we'll see NMC batteries for high performance, LFP for mid level and Sodium Ion for cheap entry level vehicles.

What remains to be seen is how consumers will treat the same car with a variety of chemistries. If VW were to introduce a new entry level ID.3 with a Sodium Ion battery and reduced power for €32k versus the current list price of €37k would people again see a paper depreciation hit because of the lower cost of entry. There's a substantial part of the market that sees car prices purely as the base price and isn't interested in a making a comparison based on performance or features.

unkel · 31-12-2023 8:16pm

For sure @liamog but that's just what happens in a totally disrupted market. The same car is getting cheaper and cheaper and there are even cheaper new cars from new entrants hitting the market. The other side of the coin is that some giant incumbents might not survive. I predict Toyota will have a very bad time over the next 5-10 years

maidhc · 31-12-2023 9:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121555072#Comment_121555072

Cars are not computers though despite what Musk has tried to say. Unless we assume everyone from Karl Benz, to Ferdinand Piech to Richard Parry Jones were con-men cars are mechanical objects that ferry people from a-b. A 1997 Carina and Tesla m3 are primarily the same save for the drivetrain and an iPad on the dash.

It appears it is far easier to build evs than ice cars and the barriers to entry in that market seem lower.

There is no reason why to Toyota with their reserves and knowledge cannot build evs when they want to.

The bigger issue is will Tesla and the Chinese be able to solve the engineering issues Toyota solved in the 80s, or make cars drive like those that chapman or parry jones designed. So far it seems that Tesla can’t maintain a reasonable parts inventory, and the driving experience of most evs is a very numb (if quick) affair.

It may also get to the point quickly where a car is a true appliance like an iPhone is now, and you keep your car until it’s done; with the Detroit updates a thing of the past. Interesting either way.

unkel · 31-12-2023 10:41pm

@maidhc - "will Tesla and the Chinese be able to solve the engineering issues Toyota solved in the 80s"

What engineering issues are they? 😂

I know Toyota was able to finally solve the engineering issues in the 90s and come up with a petrol hybrid car. 100 years after Porsche had done the same 😂

You have a point, there will hopefully always be Ferraris and Porsches and the most sought after and luxury cars will probably always be mostly German and Italian, but Toyota is none of that and will have to compete heads on with other makers of A to B vehicles: mostly the Chinese

Kramer · 31-12-2023 10:53pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121555072#Comment_121555072

https://fortune.com/asia/2023/12/28/toyota-hybrid-cars-sales-record-2023-top-automaker/

😎.

Eleusis · 31-12-2023 11:24pm

I'm in the market for an Ev. Budget 25 to 30k. Could stretch a few K. Would be a 2nd family car for majority of journeys that 7 seater not needed for. 25000km per year.

I'm down to a few options but it's so hard to figure out estimated depreciation after 3 years

Counting out leaf and ioniq cause low head and leg room in back. I have tall kids and have to cart thier mates around to football stuff too.

Option 1.) New mg4 30.5k.

Option 2 .) BYD dolphin 31.2k

Option 3.) Used 2020 id3 1st plus with 23000 km and €25k

Options 4.) ex demo 2023 cupra or id3 for approx 33k.

Any opinions on what would be best value and least likely to have high depreciation?

unkel · 01-01-2024 1:47am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121555647#Comment_121555647

All far too expensive and dead cert depreciation bill to follow. Best bet with your options would be an early ID.3 for about €17-18k

byrne249 · 01-01-2024 3:58am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121555647#Comment_121555647

There's a 231 Cupra for sale in Limerick for 29,950 right now, no mileage allegedly

staples7 · 01-01-2024 6:39am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121550516#Comment_121550516

Seems to be a fair few issues being raise in the ioniq 5 thread…

Ev fan · 01-01-2024 12:39pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121555647#Comment_121555647

The way prices are falling anyone buying an EV in the next few months should do well. SOH and resultant likely range should be a factor to consider for an older EV- e.g 2020 ID3.- also warranty would be an issue. The difficulty of course will be trying to time your purchase at close to the market bottom. From what I can see 3yr old ID3s for example are still eur 3k or 4k overpriced. If you could manage to bag a low mileage 2023 Born for close to 30k that would be a good deal (although I'm biased being a Born owner). Having an EV as a 2nd car makes great sense. Other than that are there any 2nd hand Hyundai/Kia EVs available which come with longer warranties?

Clo-Clo · 01-01-2024 12:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121555647#Comment_121555647

We have a eGolf as the second car, done over 100k in it so far and it has been perfect. In reality it will be do 90% of the mileage and the big 7 seater is doing the rest. Problem is we really need to swap to a 7 seater now so will have to part with it and no 7 seater electrics available in price range.

My point on this is you don't need to spend huge money on a car, do you really need to spend huge money if a second car and most of the journeys will be short trips. Even weekends away I have taken with me once I know I can use the granny cable the other end, the odd time I have even used the dreaded public system.

I would work out what you will be doing daily and then buy to that. Keep the spare change in your back pocket instead of spending big on a car which is always going to lose money

Casati · 01-01-2024 5:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121556279#Comment_121556279

As another poster said, to avoid depreciation you could buy an early ID3. The current 3 year price (19k for 1st Edition) gives you a good idea of what a 2023 ID3 would be worth in three years, a Born would be worth a bit less - so your probably looking at 4 to 5k per annum buying new or a 2023 pre reg. In three years I'd expect something like this still to be worth 10k+ so depreciation drops to 3k p.a

https://www.donedeal.ie/cars-for-sale/volkswagen-id-3-2020/35685359

Buying used and almost out of warranty isn't for everybody though, personally I would try to buy something with 3 year warranty so you don't have to worry about expensive battery or motor replacement - regardless how reliable these cars are, the problem is you have few options bar main dealers if something major goes wrong.

Eleusis · 01-01-2024 8:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121557713#Comment_121557713

just curious, for what reason would a cupra born would be worth a bit less than an ID3?

Casati · 01-01-2024 8:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121558356#Comment_121558356

Brand snobbery

maddness · 01-01-2024 8:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121558356#Comment_121558356

No idea, the Cupra is a far more desirable car than a iD3

vicM · 01-01-2024 8:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121558356#Comment_121558356

Good Question coz from what I can see the interior of the Born is more plush than the ID3 first gen. supposedly drives better (Ive rented an ID3 for a week in the UK but never driven the Born)