EV Depreciation

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568739#Comment_121568739

That was a political declaration by Irish parties and never put into legislation. A politician can say what ever they like, until they pass a law its meaningless.

The regulations I'm referencing are at an EU level and have been enacted.

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568786#Comment_121568786

I would argue there would be no EV market were it for the Model S.

Don’t get me wrong, I think EVs are absolutely the future, but right now I know I would find one hard to live with and many are like me, the fears people express are neither unreal nor imagined. I think people will change their minds as the facts change.

Just because one has not bought an EV does not disentitle that person to a view; it’s like arguing that you need to get break a bone before you can express a preference on not having broken bones.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568546#Comment_121568546

I'd have no problem doing it since I pay for all her heating all and lecky anyway :)

OEP

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568546#Comment_121568546

So you wouldn't charge your phone at someone's house? It's the same fuel as the car.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568791#Comment_121568791

I would argue that until 2035 even that law is meaningless

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568716#Comment_121568716

you dont use the infastructure, how can you say its rubbish without experience?

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569078#Comment_121569078

EU emissions regulations have been done multiple times why do you specifically believe that this one is meaningless despite previous versions of the same legislation which have been negotiated, applied and seen to be effective?

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569131#Comment_121569131

Are you suggesting we must all personally experience something before making an informed decision?

As a matter of fact though when I got the phev first I played a game of seeing if I could charge it at various destinations. Apart from a few hotels (little island, the Europe and Fitzgerald’s in Adare) it was a non runner without messing up my plans, waiting, coming back, general fooling. So to answer your question I did try the infrastructure between early and mid 2022 and all that has happened since is the number of users of that infrastructure has increased disproportionately to the infrastructure itself.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569353#Comment_121569353

am i suggesting that experience of something would confer more knowledge than assumptions, Yes, yes i am.

I would also suggest that your game of pretending to charge a small battery PHEV isnt representative.

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569395#Comment_121569395

Infrastructure

Currently, the majority of EV charging (c.80%) is done at home, and access to and installation of home-charging infrastructure is relatively well established in Ireland. A more significant gap exists in relation to the provision of publicly accessible charging infrastructure.

…thats only the view of the Dept of Transport from 6 months ago, probably can be disregarded too. You should get onto the secretary general of that dept and tell them you have first hand experience of the infrastructure and it is amazeballs.

https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/3faf6-electric-vehicles-charging-infrastructure-strategy-2022-2025/

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569533#Comment_121569533

you can take what you want from that statement but it seems pretty bland and not instructive. Also did i say anything was amazeballs, you are mostly arguing with yourself.

As has been said to you already no one is forcing you to buy an EV (yet). if you are happy in your Rav4 good for you but i, and other EV owners, dont need you to explain to us why our cars dont really work when the reality is that they do.

Cheerio.

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569561#Comment_121569561

This is the crux of the issue. It's starting to work for more and more people. It's past the very early adopter phase. I remember when people would laugh or be curious about EVs when I was charging in public years ago. Now EVs are non-remarkable. Drive around Dublin (an event for us culchies) especially and there are loads of EVs.

I would also argue that you cannot have an opinion that something doesnt work unless you've tried it. Conversely, no one is going to force you out of an ICE car, it's just going to get more expensive as the fuel costs go up, the cost of climate emissions get passed on to you more an more with carbon taxes etc, and EVs are less impacted by this.

Yes EVs are predominantly charged at home. However you can't do the 80% of home charging without the 20% of public charging. The car doesnt work if its restricted to home charging only.

Where this fits into depreciation is interesting. I think as more and more EVs hit the market and R&D costs come down and down (spread across more and more sales) the depreciation curve on earlier cars is going to look bad for a while. Particularly if you buy like I did a Tesla before the price drops of 2022. There are literal people out there in 80k model Y that now less than 2 years later is worth 40k. The cost of early adoption.

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569131#Comment_121569131

I would say there is widespread agreement here that

1/ if you don't have a home charging point then don't go near an EV.

2/ if you will be needing public charging regularly then avoid an EV.

Now this is the EV depreciation thread. We are now at the point where a large cohort of people have their car a few years and would like to trade up.

Until now pretty much the majority of people bought a brand new EV, often at inflated prices, often with a high interest loan.

The real world is here now. People are entitled to discuss it.

When you hear people saying "If you don't want an EV, then move on to another forum, nobody cares" it smacks of burying heads in the sand.

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569561#Comment_121569561

I never said that EVs didn’t work for those that have them, I said there is a reason why many don’t want to buy them; you have been there one trying to force your opinion that people are somehow irrational in preferring ice cars (for now).

by contrast several people here including a number of ‘’moderators” have jumped down my throat with wild accusations simply because I am expressing a coherent, if contrarian, view to the accepted reality here. I have been told I am not wanted because I am not expressing views aligned with EV evangelism. Is very odd.

Buddy Bubs

I bought an EV with a complete ignorance of chargers, never even saw one or knew where they were. Turns out there's loads near me in supermarket car parks, train stations, motorways etc but apart from visiting a few of them to suss it out, I've never had to use them except for the long drives on motorways and I have that sussed for the m1, M4 and M6, m7 and m8 I know my plan.

I still haven't got a home charger as we have 3 x 11kw chargers in work so that does me perfectly, charge to 100% on Friday for the weekend and then if I get below 20% I charge to 80% during the week.

Works for me.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569605#Comment_121569605

im not sure why you quoted what you did and then posted that to be honest.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569613#Comment_121569613

I am forcing my opinion? as far as i can see the only one trying to force opinions are the people telling everyone how something they dont have and dont have experience of doesnt work, and why it doesnt work for other peopld.

its very odd indeed.

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569633#Comment_121569633

^^^ the topic of the thread. Let’s get real and explore why EVs have a demand issue.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569678#Comment_121569678

A lot of the demand issue is down to consumer ignorance.

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569613#Comment_121569613

I think your view is more reflective of PHEV owners than it is of prospective BEV buyers. Your repeated claims that BEVs are not ready for the mainstream is not reflected in the sales numbers, approx 20% of cars over the last three plates have been BEVs, we're well past them only being bought by hobbyists.

Purchase price and the low availability of 3-year-old BEVs is the more common reason that people give for not yet being able to buy an EV. This thread is about the current depreciation being seen by 2021/22 buyers. Depreciation caused by the lowering of purchase prices not by unfounded fears of ever having to charge in public.

I think your suffering from a heavy case of selection bias, fear of public charging is an oft-cited reason to purchase a PHEV so it's not surprising that your seeing the evidence to justify your decision. Similarly, it's not that surprising that people who daily drive EVs are responding with a much more nuanced experience.

Public Charging is nowhere near the impossibility that some people have built it up to be, here's a pic of CCS chargers around Dublin from Zap-map. It wasn't too long ago that there were only 7 single CCS points in the same area. The infra is getting better, and every time it does a CCS car from 2014 such as the BMW I3 becomes less challenging to use. I don't think that 2024 is going to be the final year where any CCS infrastructure is deployed.

creedp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569596#Comment_121569596

👍A very sensible and balanced view.

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569681#Comment_121569681

The world is wrong, but you are right? The market has failed? The entire populations of the United States and Europe are imbeciles? Good luck with that argument.

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569633#Comment_121569633

Theres plenty of people giving real world experience of the public charging network and how it has failed them.

It's not a secret you know.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569708#Comment_121569708

you are proving my point for me with your posting.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569713#Comment_121569713

yes and there are plenty of people giving real world experience of how it hasnt. It works for a lot more people than it doesnt, not that you would think that with all the posters here, who have never used it, giving us all the reasons why it doesnt work.

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569758#Comment_121569758

No I’m not. When the yanks won’t buy electric f150s, musk needs to reduce the price of his cars and VW can’t sell IDs there is a demand issue. I’m sure the Chinese have had an impact on the supply side in Europe (but not the US), but that doesn’t adequately explain the sharp drop in demand (at any realistic price potentially) for Sh EV vehicles.

i get this is emotive as people like to think their cars are “desirable”. (Except me, I don’t care, I drive a Camry every day)

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569812#Comment_121569812

You said:

The entire populations of the United States and Europe are imbeciles? Good luck with that argument.

Thats just nonsense, whats the point of engaging with that standard of posting.

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569819#Comment_121569819

You said

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569681#Comment_121569681

The facts:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/12/business/ford-f150-lightning-ev.html

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569713#Comment_121569713

The network here is not great, that's for sure. No one (i assume) is saying it is. However it's perfectly usable and getting much better. Even compare this time this year to this time last year. Applegreen and circle k "massively" expanded their networks bringing lots of HPC online. Easygo are doing well too. Ecars and surprisingly Tesla are lagging behind.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569840#Comment_121569840

i dont subscrible to the NYT, perhaps you will be able to explain how that one article supports your assertion that the entire population of the NA and Europe and europe arent imbeciles (and by extension arent going to buy EVs when plenty of them already have) and how it addresses misinformation and irrational range anxiety in a lot of drivers.

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569812#Comment_121569812

Is it Q4 of 2023 that saw so little demand that it reversed the previous two records for EV sales in the US set in Q2 and Q3 of 2023? The story of drop in demand whilst sales numbers are still increasing is one of the weirder tropes to come out of 2023. I'd love to see your industry insight to be making such a bold claim

https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q3-2023-ev-sales/

EVs are not some kinds of unique product where selling more is caused by reduced demand.

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569613#Comment_121569613

You’ve come into an EV forum posting comment on why EV’s don’t work and it has been proved that they can work for the scenarios presented, only for the goal posts to be moved again.

An EV doesn’t work for you that’s fine. Stick with ICE. Can you imagine the uproar of an EV owner went into the main motors forum and started posting constantly about why an ICE is the wrong car. It’s laughable to be honest

Nobody cares what your method of fuel is. You buy what suits you. But you consistently come in posting why an EV doesn’t work in circumstances when others have the opposite experience of it working. You’ll get the usual thanks from the same 5 users (they know who they are). If gets tired to be honest.

ICE works for you. Fine. Youre emotive about your Camry. Thats also fine. Some people are slow to change. Thats fine. You’re not gona change the minds of anyone here in the EV forum that EV’s are not for them.

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569873#Comment_121569873

Sweet divine. Your sharp wit has me beat. I admit defeat, you win. Fair play. Let’s now move on.

Gumbo

Attack the poster when you run out of “facts”?

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569879#Comment_121569879

I agree. I assume if I went onto a religion forum and gave logical reasons why there is no deity the feedback would be the same.

i assumed with this was a thread about the market, market forces rather than religious fervour would be discussed.

It’s clearly also a Hybrid forum by the way!

And no one feels strongly about a Camry.

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569914#Comment_121569914

No, just when someone is refusing to believe the NYT saying Ford are scaling back ev production due to demand issues we are going nowhere and it’s easier to let that person believe they are correct.

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569812#Comment_121569812

Electric F150 are not the barometer of demand. Model Y was the best selling car in the world this year. Not best selling EV and not best selling car in EU or something. Best selling in the world. No car sold more than the model Y. Even more than the US favorite Camry and Corolla too I might add.

https://cleantechnica.com/2023/12/28/tesla-model-y-going-to-be-top-selling-vehicle-in-the-world-in-2023/#:~:text=The%20Tesla%20Model%20Y%20was,the%20third%20quarter%20of%202023.

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569942#Comment_121569942

Ford aren't the only producer in the market, if your claims are that Ford are seeing reduced demand for their products then that should be easy to show numbers for. Your actual claim was that EVs are seeing reduced demand in the US, even though Cox Automotive numbers show that Q2, and then Q3 were record setting quarters for EV sales.

Sales do not increase in years where demand is decreasing.

sk8board

Only back here now - I was the OP about the rights or wrongs of asking/giving a charge at someone’s house - thanks for all the perspectives, I just still maintain it’s an early adopter mindset, and not a mass market one. Of course you’d all gladly let someone else use your charger, it’s the nature of early adopters of anything to help each other.

This whole thread is predicated on the fact that EVs are struggling to convince the mass market buyers to follow the early adopters, and ‘domestic destination charging’ is one such obstacle I think.

(that, or maybe I go to too many high society candlelight suppers and don’t want to be running a granny charger in the window of their gate lodge 😛😀)

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569942#Comment_121569942

Ford are scaling back because of demand for “their” product IMO.

Ford would be on the back foot in terms of EV production.

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569959#Comment_121569959

Sorry, increasing at a lower than expected rate. It’s still a demand issue that’s the point.

Credit to Tesla mind you, but they do have a demand issue or else there would not have been price cuts.

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569973#Comment_121569973

It's not an obstacle. I just charge en route if I know theres no destination charging.

I'd never let someone use my charger btw, thats mine not public use.

Casati

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569854#Comment_121569854

You dont have to buy an EV and try it to know the network isn’t great - just read posts here and on Facebook etc or talk to other owners- however I’m not sure that the network is responsible for the high depreciation:

High depreciation is down to imo:

Cars originally costing too much - ie overpriced priced for early adopters. Cars priced well new hold their value well used (eg Ioniq 28)

Other issues impacting to lessor extent:

Concern (right or wrong) over the huge cost of battery or motor replacement on an out of warranty

Quality issues with many EV’s rushed to the market originally

Buyers expecting further price reductions on new cars

Dealers general disinterest in EV’s. Few dealers will accept EV’s made by other brands

Buyers not willing to buy expensive EV’s privately - but tonnes of private buyers trying to sell privately

Perception that charging network isn’t good enough

High cost to charge in public

I would buy a Tesla Model 3 (in white) or a new ID4 facelift and expect both of them to hold their value really well as they are both good value for money now. Megane or E-Tron will see big depreciation as they are still overpriced

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569879#Comment_121569879

You haven't proved anything though.

If you turn up at the Q park and the charger is ICE'd, out of order, in use all day etc. then it's a pain in the ass.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569260#Comment_121569260

I can see in 2030 all the big car manufacturers putting pressure on the EU to push the 2035 deadline out. We have already seen VW saying they can't make a profit from EVs... I hope I'm wrong of course

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570044#Comment_121570044

Then you just top up at an HPC. Not ideal but still perfectly fine.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569998#Comment_121569998

I agree completely- but again we’re back to the problem of almost all EVs available today needing to charge ‘somewhere’ for what is only 350km/3-3.5hrs of total driving, 90% easy motorway cruise at 120, and a nice long break in the middle. That’s early adopter stuff - there’s no way the mass market would swallow it.

let me put it this way - imagine all garages selling EVs were advertising the real world Irish winter ranges for city, rural and motorway - how would sales go? (Purely hypothetical of course, but e.g there’s a lot of 3-4yo cars in the 2nd hand market advertising their (brand new) wltp summer urban range, when clearly ‘battery science is a thing’.

that’s the juncture we’re at now. Early adopters have their cars, and all the mass market are hearing is that those cars aren’t getting close to their advertised ranges.

unkel

@sk8board - "the fact that EVs are struggling to convince the mass market buyers to follow the early adopters"

Hasn't the market proven you wrong already last year? The Tesla Model Y was the best selling car in the world. The masses have switched from buying a combustion engine Toyota Corolla (for decades the best seller) to a full EV. We are somewhere at the start of early majority now

I predicted in 2022 that the Model Y would possibly or even likely be the best seller last year. To lots of ridicule on this forum alone...

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570238#Comment_121570238

Take the base model 3. 40k new and real world range of 300-350km winter to summer.

I don't think we will have many cars that don't need to charge after 350km of real world motorway driving. Most people don't drive those trips.If you did that every day, you are spending one full 24hr day per week driving. Simply not realistic apart from edge cases.

The cost to add more batteries to give the model 3 (or other cars) enough battery to do 600-700km of real world driving simply doesnt make sense. The best range currently available is the 500-600km of the Mercedes EQS (as well as Lucid and cadillac models not available here) and all 3 are well north of 3X the price of the model 3.

The model 3 can do 300km on the motorway, stop for 15-25 minutes and do another 200-275. I know, because I do it. In mine, very occasionally and in all weathers. I'd much prefer 1-5 stops per year with 60k plus not spent on a bigger battery!

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570257#Comment_121570257

I know and again I agree - but it’s like people who spend more for a 7-seater for those few times a year they actually use it.

again - the mass market wont accept inconvenience for those few trips a month or year.

EVs will get there, but I spoke to people at a NYE house party, with all the money in the world to buy whatever car they want, and their EV knowledge was still 3-4 years old, or based on feedback from someone who already had an EV.

curiously a few of them were literally aghast about that Weckler article about depreciation - that’s what started the whole conversation. Yes we’re that boring.