EV Depreciation

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570256#Comment_121570256

This thread is about the mass market adoption of EVs in Ireland, not the sales to early adopters world wide.

toyota don’t seem to be doing too badly at the moment either, and seem happy that their early call on EVs struggling to go from early adopter to mass market (for the time being), was the right one.

indeed, production cuts for virtually every EV on the plant would seem to back that up.

People here have also predicted the ‘fall of the OEMs’ for about a decade here btw - I’m not being a d1ck, but let’s at least have an honest debate that EVs have gone from the hottest new thing, into a definite state of flux - which brings us back OT regarding EV depreciation of 2nd hand EVs and the fact that the mass market 2nd hand buyers very clearly don’t want to pay the piper, and a lot of early EV adopters are left holding a car which they love but has cost them far more than expected in total cost of ownership.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570282#Comment_121570282

again that comes back to my point about the general ignorance / lack of knowledge. People over estimate how far they travel, what range they need, how much space they need, how often they will need to publicly charge.

Ironically when people have the option of paying more for more range many elect not to (see tesla model 3 buyers!)

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570315#Comment_121570315

Absolutely - but what’s that phrase about “common sense not being common”.

we always forget that this is a motoring forum, representing the perhaps 2-5% of drivers who would considering themselves ‘car people’.

everyone else just wants a car to do what they require and couldn’t care less about what propels it

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570310#Comment_121570310

you crystallise a loss on something when you sell,

if EVs are depreciating more because prices have been cut your cost to change to a new one may not be any different, if you are hanging onto what you have then you arent losing anything.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570338#Comment_121570338

but the car will do what they require if they stood back and thought about it 😁

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570346#Comment_121570346

whatever way you cut it, mathematics doesn’t really support any of that when it comes to true cost of ownership.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570380#Comment_121570380

i disagree, you could be correct if our straw person is opting out of the car market at the end but if they are going into another car then i could well be correct.

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570466#Comment_121570466

I think it’s the other way around. As you said the loss is crystallised when the car is sold and the only thing that matters is the cost to change.

The cost to change an EV is currently far higher than the cost to charge a P/HEV. QED.

unkel

@sk8board - "This thread is about the mass market adoption of EVs in Ireland, not the sales to early adopters world wide."

Indeed. Ireland is as always a bit behind. But not that far behind. It is a certainty we will catch up. But it might take a year or two.

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570588#Comment_121570588

Assuming you mean the cost change a PHEV instead of charge it, PHEV's didn't see the low supply high demand price gouging so haven't suffered from the same drop in new prices.

It was nuts that people were buying new ID.3's in '20 and selling for them higher prices than they bought them in '22.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570282#Comment_121570282

How that Weckler has any credibility is beyond me. He's never shown to know anyting about anything with the exception of Apple products.

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570625#Comment_121570625

Everything was daft then, but I’m really just assuming we are talking about someone who bought new in 2020 or 2021 and is changing now.

Mind you in the US it seems Toyota and Honda are plagued with dealers price gouging on new Hybrids, the Rav4 prime as it’s called being a particular victim.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570588#Comment_121570588

as i said if the new ev has had a price cut, which many have, then the decrease in the value of the ev you are trading is potentially mitigated leaving you no worse off than if the price cut and the increased depreciation never happened.

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570768#Comment_121570768

Looking at some guidelines, a 3-year-old car should be sitting at around 58% of its original price, and 49% for a 4-year-old. I think that's roughly the prices we're seeing for EVs. A more legitimate story on EV depreciation would show's that EVs are just cars and are following standard depreciation curves, probably one for a slow news day.

ID.3's were on sale starting from 33k, is anyone that surprised they are showing up from around 22k now?

ELM327

It's interesting that the curve is linear normal depreciation, if you remove approx 18 months of overinflated prices.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570875#Comment_121570875

Logic would suggest that over the last 3 years those of us buying EVs were buying them brand new so they will be depreciating faster than ICEs for that reason

With that being said the main dealers seem to be artificially inflating the prices on their websites of their second hand ICE models which might not help matters either

Mr Q

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570875#Comment_121570875

I have an ID.3 1st and the current trade in value is about 47% of the original price at 3.25 years old.

If I sold it privately at just under 20k I would be close to the 58% you mention.

Either way I wouldn't have expected it to worth much more than 50% of its original value at this stage. But up to a couple of months ago the trade in offers were much higher.

Buddy Bubs

Ok, am update to this thread since I started it about 3 weeks ago and things have become clearer, yes there are massive price drops in valuations being given for trade ins but new prices have dropped just as much.

Went into a vw dealer for another reason today and checking out my cupra born, I was given a cost of 12k to go from a 222 Born to a 241 id3 base model whatever it was called. I'd have the pick of a few different ones they had in stock, and its the new id3.

Then passing by my own dealer, I decided to see what they'd offer me and I was given 11.5k cost to change into a new Born v1, mine is also a v1.

I have it about 18 months now. I'd imagine with no further shocks to the market it would be more or less the same as I bring it up to 2 years old, maybe a grand or 2 more as we approach 242 plates.

So cost to change into something very similar is about 11.5 to 13.5k over 18 months to 2 years. Although it has depreciated by more as I paid more than a new one costs now, but that's largely irrelevant.

That's about normal I'd say, 33% or theresbouts in 2 years from new.

Will obviously be different with private sales and with other dealers.

I'd say don't entertain any brands that are still charging 2023 prices, we seem to be back to 2021 for new prices before all the increases, they seem to be reversing on them.

All in all, not as bad as feared

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571534#Comment_121571534

thanks for the update and reinforces what i was saying, in certain cases at least the increase in depreciation is offset by the decrease in the new car price.

unkel

€12k cost to change at a main dealer to go up 2 years on a car in the €30-40k is great going, @Buddy Bubs . Nothing to see here folks, thread closed 😂

Buddy Bubs

I'm guessing there's still a focus on shifting existing new stock, wonder will it last when they are taking orders and building cars.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571702#Comment_121571702

given the pressure the distributors tend to put on them to take cars and pre reg them for a lot of models they will always have stock to shift imo.

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571690#Comment_121571690

My phev cost 4k less to go from 22 to 24 on a 55k car. I’m still right. 😆

Ev fan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570875#Comment_121570875

I think you are spot on on the depreciation of EVs. My 211 ID3 which I traded in Feb last year for close to eur 33k went for sale at 38k (37k new price). Over the last 10 months it has dropped a few times in price to 28k the last time I checked. I think it has to drop further to maybe 25k at which point it will have a better chance of selling. That's close to 40% depreciation which would be 'normal' for a 3 Yr old car. IMO the same depreciation applies to all the other 3 Yr old ID3s currently for sale. Nothing extraordinary about it other than normal depreciation rules apply again.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571789#Comment_121571789

A 55k PHEV Toyota? You were ripped off the first time you bought. The dealer is hardly going to keep doing that or you would buy another make 😂

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572413#Comment_121572413

Same price as an equivalent model y, but with a free actual engine!

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572413#Comment_121572413

Is a Model Y not €44k?

Edit. Could have swore there were black MY’s for €44k earlier, maybe sold?

€46k in blue it is then.

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572591#Comment_121572591

That model Y is not only missing an engine, but is also short awd and a bit of midrange grunt the rav has.

The dual motor is the closest comparator.

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572642#Comment_121572642

Both cars are 300bhp so thought they would be similar in performance?

6s V 6.9s to 60 in favour of the Rav

But MY tops out higher.

AWD was €50k yesterday. Now €52k. Tesla increasing their prices at the moment removing their discounts

unkel

And you forgot the thousands you save per year on fuel, maintenance, tax, insurance, @Gumbo. And I have no doubt a €46k Model Y will have lower depreciation than a €55k PHEV Toyota RAV4.

allinthehead

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572788#Comment_121572788

Christ, 55k for a Rav4?

staples7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572591#Comment_121572591

Does that mean our used Y’s are worth 2k more than yesterday ? 🙏😂

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572936#Comment_121572936

Possibly 😀

But don’t post that out loud in this thread 😀

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572843#Comment_121572843

Same price as a civic and less than a crv. The price differential between Toyotas and the Lexus equivalents isn’t much anymore either, and a better car than an x3.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572788#Comment_121572788

a 46k model y wouldn’t have done what I needed. Running costs are the same. Rav lost 4k per annum which made it a cheap car bar the upfront cost (it was prob closer to 50k mind, I can’t recall as I traded a civic against it)

Marty Bird

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572591#Comment_121572591

You’re correct they had some in inventory for 44k I was looking at the all black with induction wheels for €45750 only last week.

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572788#Comment_121572788

How much would you save on insurance?

Ditto tax?

Maintenance on a new car?

Fuel - if it's mostly electric you drive on then mightn't be much.

Depreciation, who knows!

I'm not sure where you are getting the "thousands" from.

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572979#Comment_121572979

over 35k kms:

Insurance: €350 x2

maintenance: €500 (2x tyres)

fuel: approx 10 tanks of petrol, : €500, about €1500 in electricity as my plan wasn’t always optimal.

Pretty much it.

unkel

@maidhc - "a 46k model y wouldn’t have done what I needed"

We know that. Regularly driving 700km in Ireland without passing a single fast charge point. That's why I recommended an EV is not for you.

I admit I am not that familiar with the current state of the non-Tesla public charging network in Ireland, particularly outside of the motorway and national road network, but I still find it hard to imagine that trip is even possible 😁

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121573255#Comment_121573255

Actually I was thinking of awd. I don’t exactly live on a bus route, and I have relied up my (utterly wonderful) 03 landcruiser j95 many times in the past 8 or so years. I wanted my wife to have at least something similar. The rav can wade to 500mm, and has a pretty decent electronic approximation of a set of locking diffs.

btw the server cabinet you sold me is still in use, as are the Poe switches. I sold the w201s after the 2.0 was vandalised and I realised I rather doing up 6.8l John Deere’s over 1990 mercs. The plan is now to pick up something like a 968 or a 944 in good order.

graememk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570875#Comment_121570875

Intersting.

In March 2020, the Eniro was 41.5k (and a €500 supervalu voucher if ordered in '19), AFAIK it did actually get cheaper at the end of 2020 too.

49% for a 4 yr old car puts it at 20.33k.. Lets not mention I also have about 110k km on it right now.

Casati

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571534#Comment_121571534

So 11.5k to move up 1.5 years, or 7666 p.a - based on the quote in front of you and not based on ‘what if’ cost in six months.

Sorry but that’s a massive cost to change for a small family hatchback - be it a very nice one.

People are swapping two year old Corolla’s for 6k. Octavia 7k. I was offered 8k cost to change on a Tiguan Allspace. The other poster is changing a the Rav4 for the same 8k too.

I get that running costs might be lower if you are on rate night at home or charging in work, but equally somebody without that luxury and charging at public stations will see higher fuel costs than petrol or diesel, but really unless it’s similar depreciation and cost to change that’s going to be a barrier for less well off folk like myself

sk8board

a VW Golf style petrol manual in 212 was €32k. 2.5years later, even the cheapest high milers are listing at €26k, low mileage for €28/29k ish.

they don’t make manual petrol golf’s anymore of course, so that will help a lot.

youd have to be doing massive mileage for €11-12k depreciation over 18months on the EV to make sense, on a 5-door family car.

Buddy Bubs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121576502#Comment_121576502

Nobody is getting cost to change of 3 to 4k though after 2.5 years

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121576524#Comment_121576524

Agreed - I’m just suggesting that this is another example of the running cost savings falling foul of the depreciation.

again - absolutely no one is buying an EV for environmental reasons, it’s all about costs, tech and/or 0-60 times.

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121576680#Comment_121576680

It's down to a perceived saving really. The tech. will become bog standard soon.

An easier drive but I drive both EV and manual diesel and while I'd pick a EV I wouldn't pay extra for one.

Automatic cars were always available but very few wanted them.

There was a big benefit for a while of charging for "free" off solar PV but that's largely gone now.

Then again petrol could go back over €2 quite easily and the goalposts shift again.

allinthehead

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121576680#Comment_121576680

I had a perfectly good Lexus Is300h and I wanted a new car. I spent 44k on it, and it wasn't to save money obviously. I love technology, but the main reason I went Ev was for the benefit of the environment. When I say environment what I really mean is local air quality. Unless my circumstances change drastically I'll never go back to petrol. Couldn't give a shlt about depreciation, I'll worry about that when it comes to changing as the market will have changed again.

unkel

@waterwelly - "Automatic cars were always available but very few wanted them."

Everybody always wanted them. If they weren't way more expensive, slower, used far more fuel and were more expensive to fix. Rich people didn't care about any of that, so pretty much all high end cars were always bought with automatic anyway 😂

Not that it matters much anymore, the majority of new cars sold are automatic now, very soon all of them are. My teenage daughters have all decided they won't bother learning to drive in a manual. And interesting enough, the majority of teenage boys I have spoken too or heard of around me, are pretty much the same. Almost all of them have far less interest in cars than the previous generation.

allinthehead

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121576789#Comment_121576789

It's funny you should say this as I spent some time with my Nephews during the week, 10 and 12. I asked what they and their buddies were interested in car wise and they said it's still petrol cars. They don't lust after electric at all. My general experience is different though and young kids seem to love the Tesla.

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121576789#Comment_121576789

I'm persisting with manual training for now, although I think the manual wheels we have will be the last.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121576821#Comment_121576821

So why are you persisting then? To spend extra time and money teaching your children a skill that they will never need?

I can only think of one reason to do so: if your children were interested in older / classic cars. I discussed that with mine and they weren't 😁 And don't get me wrong, I love driving manual cars. It was sad to see my Boxster go. And then last year I got a MINI Cooper S, but sold that too.