EV Depreciation

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122612845#Comment_122612845

Agree - while EVs are mechanically simpler/less moving parts, modern cars in general have far more electronics and driving assists. If any of these fail, and they will, cars will need replacement parts put in. This is by design and a requirement of various electronic standards for automotive market (ISO:26262 for one).

prosaic

I'm thinking about this obsolescence idea. It doesn't seem so reasonable. You have a varied pool of potential car users, from high spend to low. If I'm scrimping, I'll take what ever works as long as it's cheapest possible. As long as the car is road worthy, someone will take it. That's one less potential user for higher valued cars. Those missing from lower value end will pull others to lower values so as to maintain a continuous decline in value. The 10% point for ICE cars is about 12 years, which is about when the engine and related parts really start to wear out.

EVs won't have their basic machinery wear out so quickly, unless inverters and charge related stuff degrades a lot. If the basic stuff that make an Ev can last longer, reliability will likely force manufacturers to go for longer lasting components. I don't see that they would cartel to make fail-early components, at least not at mid to high end cars. It didn't happen with ICE and I don't think it would with EV.

Longer life might mean fewer manufacturers.

Exiled Rebel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122616677#Comment_122616677

I foresee small local businesses doing module and battery replacements for 10+ year old EV's (or out of warranty) in the future. I live in rural Ireland, the majority of cars in the area are over 10 years old. Old diesels like Avensis, Corollas etc driven by farmers. These people will be looking for 10 year EV's in the future with a decent battery, they will do less than 10k a year so a 30 to 50kWh battery or module replaced battery would suit them just fine.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122617429#Comment_122617429

I foresaw that 5 years ago… Not saying you are incorrect but there is no realistic timeline at the moment

sk8board

When Toyota launched the original hybrid battery and Prius, they sold the idea to journalists that they would take back and recycle the battery if it failed and use it for home storage and lots of other practical uses.

As it turned out, they never put the plans in place because effectively zero batteries failed.

the biggest treat to current EVs isn’t something failing, it’s that the tech will evolve through a number of iterations before it settles, rendering some cars as ‘old tech’.

Menawhile a 2024 520d and a Bangle era 2004 520d are ‘fundamentally’ the same car

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629004#Comment_122629004

yet a 2004 520d is basically worthless as well.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629331#Comment_122629331

correct, but probably for a different reason to how we’ll view a 2022 €55k EV in 2042.

the 2.0D and ZF box are still used today.

If a 2042 family EV is still doing 300-350km winter range I’ll eat my hat 😀

Calahonda52

They will stop supporting the software, or slow it down, make more and more of it inoperable, just like apple and their kit

when they the kill the s/w controlling the lights, game over: 5k for new ECU etc

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629397#Comment_122629397

thats not an ev only issue though

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629397#Comment_122629397

future s/w updates aren’t part of any sales agreement for any car though.
the ability to do OTA updates has simply made it possible to get the car sold and then fix/update it later

carsfan2

friend of mine with a 231 m sport BMW i4 40 model that cost him over 70k in January 2023 has been offered 35k as trade in for January.

He is not impressed and can’t believe the loss of value.

Buddy Bubs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122630658#Comment_122630658

Has the i4 dropped in value for a new one since Jan 2023 though?

denismc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122630658#Comment_122630658

35k seems low, the cheapest used I4 on donedeal is 47k

John arse

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122630751#Comment_122630751

Yeah just looking on carzone €50-60k.

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122630658#Comment_122630658

I posted about the i4 for years. People ridiculed me as a Tesla fanboy when people were rushing out to buy them at extortionate prices. They were never a €70k car. Never.

I had a deposit on an msport eDrive 40 at €63k and bmw kept putting the delivery out and the price up and wouldn’t entertain the original price agreed.

Ended up cancelling and buying the M3P then.

I have a few M50’s saved and none of them shifting. In the time that one of the saved ads came into stock, I’ve bought and sold a M3 and MY on DoneDeal. Albeit at cheaper prices!

Anyway, the i4 is a great car, some shortfalls but if you can get over them then your getting a traditional bmw layout on an EV.

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122630681#Comment_122630681

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122630681#Comment_122630681

No, they’ve increased them!

But the eDrive 35 has launched which is cheaper so I’d say that diluted the market.

893bet

what kinda money are Tesla offering to trade in a 3 year old M3 against a new one?

Assuming a base model currently cost 40k with 60k km on it. Are they offering 20 trade in?

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122630957#Comment_122630957

2021 M3 RWD.
Id say about 18-20k’ish

joe1303l

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122630658#Comment_122630658

Someone is going to get a bargain if he lets it go for €35K. They obviously don’t want to trade it back in for fear of not being able to shift it.

893bet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122630968#Comment_122630968

ouch. Especially when they paid 47 ish likely.

Buddy Bubs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122630977#Comment_122630977

Even for petrol heads looking at new cars all the time there just has to be realism and stop giving out about trade in offers and just say you'll keep it. No harm asking for a quote but actually going ahead with changing when you know you're getting ridden is madness.

35k in 2 years means cars are costing more than most housing, just forget about it and keep the car, no matter what has caught your eye.

carsfan2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122630940#Comment_122630940

can’t agree that they were never a 70k car. They are priced where BMW perceives they can sell them. They are comparably priced in the UK too.
Problem is they suffer the usual high BMW depreciation exacerbated by the fact they are an EV.

I keep an eye on them on Carzone and they are changing hands at high enough asking prices in BMW dealers.

The dealers though want it every way. The mark up they are charging from what they buy in and what they retail them at is crazy.

We recently traded in a BMW and BMW dealers offered us 15 to 20k less than what they were retailing the same model for. When I said this, they just shrugged and said it is what it is.

carsfan2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122631098#Comment_122631098

I agree. The sensible thing is to hold on to his car which is what he said he’s now going to do.

sk8board

its astonishing how many people couldn’t be bothered selling a car privately and are swallowing those dealer trade in offers against their next shiny new car.

A donedeal ad with a few good photos - it’ll make you back thousands of that depreciation

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122631065#Comment_122631065

I could be wrong though.
But remember, the cost to change into the new car is a lot less so no actual increase may incur.

MojoMaker

Exactly.

richardbradley

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122631698#Comment_122631698

It's not can't be bothered for most, its don't want the risk that comes with it. Having people test drive your car, risk of being financially scammed etc for some people is a risk they are prepared to pay a little to avoid, especially as the sums concerned increase. Also for some people they can't manage without their car for a few days even, so they are paying for the convenience of handing the old car back on the same day as getting the new one.

If you shop around for the car you buy, this premium for ease and security varies hugely. I was recently offered 9k more for my car by one dealer vs another on a car in the 20-30k range. The best offer was close enough to what I would sell privately for that I was prepared to take the hit vs the hassle and risk of private sale. The lowest offer would have been madness to accept even if they had the car I wanted.

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122633609#Comment_122633609

“Pay a little to avoid”

BMW offer €35k, sell car privately for 45k. Thats more than a little.

But agree that in some cases you may do well trading in like yourself and in that case, it has to be considered.

richardbradley

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122633673#Comment_122633673

Completely agree and for some people it drives the choice of car. E.G. if BMW gap to private sale is too big then buy something else elsewhere. I appreciate that some people want a specific brand/car but many people have a range of options when purchasing and I was surprised by the huge level of variation on the trade in prices. I had expected a bit of variation here and there but not 50% on a 20k car….

Ev fan

Interesting article in the Independent on petrol vs EV car depreciation. ICE cars have much lower depreciation than EVs apparently. Example quoted was Peugeot 208 petrol 3 Yr old with 13% depreciation vs e208 with 30% depreciation. Doesn't really bear out on DD. Have the rules changed on depreciation? - most 3 Yr old cars will have 30% plus depreciation? The article kind of suggests you might be better off getting back into a petrol/hybrid car when you are ready to change from your 3yr old EV. I'm thinking BS.

Buddy Bubs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122652556#Comment_122652556

I saw that 87% residual value on the 208 after 3 years.

The cheapest 2024 is 24k, linked below, but it is a 241 pre reg. Would not have been that low earlier this year

The cheapest 2021 is 17k, from a dealer also linked below

This is 7k / 24k or 29% and thats allowing for dealer margin and the fact that the 2024 is an attempt to clear pre reg stock

No way did the person that traded in the 2121 get 17k, more like 14/15k

So I am saying the depreciation on a 208 in 3 years is more like 10k from a purchase price of 25k

This is 40% of original value, not 13% realistic depreciation for a buyer

I havent checked if they are like for like with regards specs, but the 2021 only has 20k kms on it so its not an outlier with high mileage or anything. Both are 1.2 manual petrols.

Wasnt that difficult for me to rip apart her 13% claims now was it, all you have to do is look.

https://www.donedeal.ie/cars-for-sale/peugeot-208-active-1-2-75-6-4-4dr/37914438

https://www.donedeal.ie/cars-for-sale/peugeot-208-2021/37369919

djan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122652609#Comment_122652609

While I agree that 13% depreciation seems a bit low, you're comparing apples to oranges here. Get price as new delivered and then compare that to current price, you can't start off with a used car. Then there's the spec levels as they will fluctuate the price by thousands even at this segment. EVs will often have higher spec as standard, an "auto" gearbox and more power.

Ev fan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122653454#Comment_122653454

There are few enough to go on but if you take slightly above the base model then new we're talking 26.5k. 3 yrs old on average asking 19k - so at least 7.5k drop which is close to 30%. This would be normal depreciation for most car brands. In fairness some EVs have dropped more than that in 3 years from new but that is because some manufacturers have reduced their new EVs pricing to more realistic levels.

User1998

EV’s have been depreciating so much because they were overpriced to begin with and the price of new ones decreased. If you buy an EV now with the new lower prices they don’t seem to be depreciating any worse than petrol/diesel cars.

Look at Tesla’s for example, people who bought them before the price drops lost tens of thousands of euro, but if you buy one now it will take 4 years to loose 50% of its value

Buddy Bubs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122653888#Comment_122653888

Even on the 19k giving 7.5k depreciation, that's dealer asking price not selling price (although I concede the same discounts could be applied on new cars) including dealer margin so there's no way a seller is getting 19k back for their 26.5k car. I assume a dealer wants 2 to 3k on a sale. If the person trading in gets 16/17k they're still suffering 10k depreciation.

Depreciation is loss suffered over period of ownership would it not? If that's agreed by us all then depreciation on a 25/27k 208 is in the region of 40%

Ain't nobody getting out of any new car after 3 years without suffering somewhere in the 33% to 40% region.

13% is just baloney