"average Dublin house prices should fall to ‘the €300,000 mark" according to Many Lou McD.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121560806#Comment_121560806

Did anything happen during the term of this government that might have disrupted construction?

MegamanBoo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121560812#Comment_121560812

Your question doesn't deserve an answer, it's a blatant strawman, nobody here is arguing against young people buying houses.

MegamanBoo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121560828#Comment_121560828

I take it you're referring to Covid, which had some impact, but it didn't stop anywhere near 100k houses being built.

We can go back to the previous FFG government if you like and talk about their failure on housing too?

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121560828#Comment_121560828

Stopping the construction industry was a woeful misstep in their pandemic handling (though a SF style zero-cases response may have been more damaging).

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121560866#Comment_121560866

Don’t be silly.

It had an enormous effect on construction from closed sites, shortage of materials, increases in costs, loss of construction workers to other industries, disruption in trades training programmes, loss of foreign workers who went home and didn’t return during/after Covid etc.

MegamanBoo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121560877#Comment_121560877

It's an overused excuse, while there was an impact it didn't come anywhere close to 100k houses.

There were drastic housing shortage prior to Covid too and look at the figures back then.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121560892#Comment_121560892

...shortages were noted at the height of the previous crash, particularly in the dublin region, so.....

MegamanBoo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121560636#Comment_121560636

I'm not sure about it not winning votes.

I think the idea of 'negative equity' is a bit of a bogeyman argument that a lot of people don't take much notice of.

From speaking with people who were in that situation after the last crash, most seem to see it as not a real concern as they had saw their house as a family home as opposed to an asset.

As someone who has bought in the last year, I know there was a risk that I was buying at a high point in the market.

I'm more personally concerned now with construction costs as I (like an awful lot of other people) will be forced to complete a deep retrofit in the next 10-15 years.

I have wider concerns then about the prices of homes falling. I'd like to see other members of my family and eventually my children be able to buy. I also don't really want to live in a country where only the very wealthy can own a home.

downtheroad

There are 562 properties in Dublin advertised at less than €300k on myhome.ie today. 187 of those are houses.

That is out of 2,678 properties listed for sale as of today.

21% of all properties available for sale today in Dublin are asking less than €300k.

So there already are properties available at Mary Lou's target range.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121560984#Comment_121560984

...are they livable houses, i.e. can people actually walk in and live without any major works being done, and are those houses in places that are actually safe to live in?

downtheroad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121560994#Comment_121560994

That's up to the individual really Wanderer. Does every home that gets sold have to be in turnkey condition? And what is a safe area to live in?

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121560892#Comment_121560892

You don’t think site closures, labour shortages, supply chain disruption, cost increases etc have significant effects on home building?

How would you overcome them?

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121561006#Comment_121561006

do you have a problem with people living in sub standard conditions, which potentially could be unsafe both physically and mentally?

for example, if the area has a high level of crime, anti social behavior etc? noting, living under such conditions can cause a significant amount of destress for habitants, which commonly results in criminal outcomes, and other dysfunctional outcomes including addiction etc etc

MegamanBoo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121561020#Comment_121561020

Of course it had an impact, nobody's saying it didn't.

But we were well below the required housing output before it happened.

Also, plenty of other industries were just as badly affected by Covid, I don't hear any one else suggest it more than halved their output in the last four years.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121560530#Comment_121560530

The thread is about Sinn Fein. Should we not discuss Sinn Fein on it?

I jump in and out of the thread so trying to say I am "foaming at the mouth" is just attacking the poster and not discussing the topic. Maybe you can discuss the topic of the thread?

On the 2020 manifesto

Abolish the property tax for one I disagree with.

Tax the rich, which was 140k in 2020 and more recnt was 100k, who knows what it iwll be tomorrow.

If you read the document it would seem Ireland has a magic money tree, at the same time Sinn Fein want to go after the multinationals.

None of it adds up, but thats the 2020 document. Since then as I posted on this thread they are totally incoherent. Now you might not like to hear it but that's the truth. So maybe instead of making comments about me you could make some comment to back up why Sinn fein are not incoherent.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121561039#Comment_121561039

Covid began early 2020, we are now early 2024 and the effects are still being felt in the industry, how can you possibly state it didn’t significantly affect house building during the term of this Government.

That completely lacks credibility.

MegamanBoo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121561032#Comment_121561032

I had a look at some of these houses that @downthemiddle shared. Some below 50sqm. Some boarded up. Some have tenants in situ.

From my experience of looking at the lower end of the market the value isn't really there. I've seen several cases where if you start to investigate the house there's some problem not listed by the estate agent so the banks won't lend.

Also a lot of these houses look to be more than 30 years old. So straight away you have to factor rewire and possibly re-roofing. Both very expensive at today's prices.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121561065#Comment_121561065

fair play, i didnt bother my arse looking, as the most likely issues are exactly what you stated, we d call this, clearly obvious! comments of the 'availability' of such properties is just pure ignorance at this stage!

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121560524#Comment_121560524

Well the best one at the moment is the government one, come next election I don't know because the manifesto's haven't been released yet

But, from all indications Sinn Fein over the last 4 years is not budging from their strategy which is a disaster. As per the latest document on housing they want to create a government construction company to builds houses and like outlined already on this thread that would be a mess.

But then again I don't have the huge experience of construction and housing cost which you have

downtheroad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121561032#Comment_121561032

SF in the last election polled very highly in areas that traditionally have high levels of crime and anti social behaviour. These properties are less than the magical 300k figure plucked from the sky by the leader of SF. Does it not stack up then that SF followers would purchase property in these areas?

GreeBo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121560636#Comment_121560636

No one is arguing that certain types of homes in certain areas could/should be cheaper, the "argument" is how SF are going to achieve this, because they have given zero detail on how they are going to do it.

The idea that the average Dublin house price will be 300K is just farcical though. You would need 10s of thousands of houses for 150-200K to achieve that average number, it just isnt going to happen.

A better idea to campaign under would be something like "We will build social housing units for under 300K"

MegamanBoo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121561057#Comment_121561057

But I'm not saying it didn't significantly affect housing output.

I'm say it didn't set the industry back anywhere near 100k houses, which is an estimate of how far behind we are in the last four years alone.

Do you really think we'd be knocking out over 50k houses per year now if it wasn't for Covid? And be on top of retrofits?

Did Covid make trades so unattractive to school leavers? Is it why construction workers are leaving, are they all off to somewhere where Covid didn't happen?

Of course Covid knocked output during lockdowns, and to some degree for a while afterwards, as it did many other industries. That it's holding us back now is utter b****x

downtheroad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121561100#Comment_121561100

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/52-blackheath-park-clontarf-dublin-3/4764406

It will be nigh on impossible for Mary Lou to get the average Dublin house price to €300k when there will always be demand in premium areas (e.g. the house above for 895k in Clontarf which could well sell for €1m and have further investment put into it)

GreeBo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121560951#Comment_121560951

Negative equity is a huge problem for anybody other than those in their "forever" home. First time buyers will be screwed if they are in negative equity, forced into starting families in 1/2bed room apartments.

The other obvious flaw with this is that if people cannot afford to move up the property ladder, there won't be any starter homes for your family and children to buy. Negative equity means people are stuck where they are.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121561100#Comment_121561100

It is likely they mean "median" when they say "average". So I wouldn't be getting too hung up on that if I were you. People (incorrectly) often use them interchangeably anyway. They can coincide, but not where a distribution is skewed.

i.e. the price of an average house, vs the average price of a house.

GreeBo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121560984#Comment_121560984

Sure, there are a number of houses for under 300K in Dublin, but thats very different from saying that the average price should fall to 300K.

There are 200 houses that are over 1M, some of which are over 10M. You are going to need a lot more than 562 houses under 300K to offset that.

Finty Lemon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121560984#Comment_121560984

Of course there will be some properties at below the threshold, but if SF have a target average of 300k, and the lowest price properties are at let's say 150k, then the top quartile house prices would need to be 430k or less based on a relatively normal distribution. Is that realistic for Dublin in 2028? I would not like to witness the conditions needed to bring this about.

Bluefoam

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121561119#Comment_121561119

Why are you talking about a large house in Clontarf... I don't think even Mary Lou is thick enough to think all houses should be priced at 300k... She's talking about the average price... that still means houses in City West, Jobstown & North Kildare... you're never getting a nice house in Clontarf for anywhere near reasonable money!

GreeBo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121560994#Comment_121560994

Some of them are in fairness, however some of them are tiny 1 bed terraces, which might be great for a young first time buyer, but they would be hard pressed to start raising a family in them.

Now if the people who are in this market segment can accept that if this is what you get for a 300K budget rather than a 100sqm 3 bed semi with a front and rear garden, then you can start to cater for this demographic, but I dont believe thats the case.

downtheroad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121561182#Comment_121561182

Because for the AVERAGE house price in Dublin to be 300k you have to consider all areas and properties in the county.

That house in Clontarf at 895k requires a property in Clondalkin to be asking minus 295k to get an average of 300k for both properties.

Nice deal if you can get it, SF to give you a house in Clondalkin plus 295k cash.