"average Dublin house prices should fall to ‘the €300,000 mark" according to Many Lou McD.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520235#Comment_121520235

How are you going to make your money back on this imagined future airbnb house when you are also using it to solve the dilemma of all the Dublin-based workers (or even one of them) who is going to move there to live?

I asked for a fundamental analysis of why it is worth that. The reason being that it cannot be worth that fundamentally. It is only at that value now because of a broken system.

You may not have realised it, but your own response perfectly encapsulates one of the major issues - that being the commoditisation of houses and having a system that allows a relatively select few to profit at the expense of the already less-well-off

deirdremf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520147#Comment_121520147

Last month when I visited, Dublin wasn't a major city.

It's a largish provincial city (calling itself a Capital City) in the Anglo-Saxon world; which is possibly why Mary Lou made the comparison with Sheffield.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520136#Comment_121520136

The market bottomed out in 2013.

Despite the crash, our population was still rising and our economy began to recover quite quickly.

Our construction industry was completely destroyed.

We were building less than 10,000 units a year back then.

So if demand is greater than supply, then prices will rise. It's basic economics.

The problem was the government didn't interfere enough in the property market.

mariaalice

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520227#Comment_121520227

That's reasonable, now to solve the real thorn the amount of wealth tied up in land, especially around urban areas who is going to take the hit there?

BillyHaelyRaeCyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520249#Comment_121520249

Im thinking strongly of moving to Bristol, Glasgow or Edinburgh (did a stint in London ten years ago to get work experience with an agency). I have a good few friends living over there, same wages but 1/2 the rents and only 5% requirement on a mortgage that according to one mate who bought in Glasgow is 5 times your income over there

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520251#Comment_121520251

The problem is that it interferes far too much. Both directly and indirectly.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520195#Comment_121520195

I don't look down on anyone.

I'm empathetic.

But literally everyone in the world on low wages will struggle to buy a property, particularly if they're single.

downtheroad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520257#Comment_121520257

A page or 2 back you were glorifying the celtic tiger, a time where 100% (and more) were handed out like sweets and caused a major financial crisis in this country.

The central bank now has limits in place to reduce the exposure to property based risk, and rightly so. Yet you now champion 5% deposits.

You aren't making much sense mate.

BillyHaelyRaeCyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520259#Comment_121520259

50k is not a low wage. Half the workers in Dublin make that or less. 24k (minimum wage) is low pay

My grandparents earned low wages and could live in Dublin and have large families. Because government policy was different pre 1990 towards housing. And thats across the western world, its Thatcherism that you own a home or else live an unstable life. Dublin was full of social housing for working people 40 years ago

BillyHaelyRaeCyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520276#Comment_121520276

I cant buy a home under current lending rules. I could in England. My older siblings and cousins could during the celtic tiger. Im making sense. The current government brought in rules that have made it impossible for young people to live in Dublin without being in unstable rents, living at home or being in the top 20% of earners, thats what we now call the housing crisis

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520246#Comment_121520246

I perfectly explained it's value by using fundamentals.

I never said anything about Dublin workers.

There's huge grants for derelict houses now. If anything, 90,000 is cheap.

downtheroad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520287#Comment_121520287

You aren't making sense. How many people during the celtic tiger bought shoddy properties that are now still in negative equity. Is that what you want?

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520287#Comment_121520287

The Celtic Tiger was a disaster.

Lots of people bought in 05 to 08 and their house price still hasn't caught up.

downtheroad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520306#Comment_121520306

He hasn't a clue.

mariaalice

Has anyone got any suggestion that doesn't involve moving to Kerry or throwing out all the social housing tenants in Dublin or talking about what happened in the past?

BillyHaelyRaeCyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520297#Comment_121520297

Yes, If a shoddy property is in Dublin and I can own it Ill take it. I just want a secure home in Dublin. Im willing to live in a UK city. I wont live in a rural area. I work two jobs and pay 1400 in rent which Ive never missed, dont get hap. I pay my own way. I just want to have my own home in Dublin.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520289#Comment_121520289

If I gave you the choice between paying 95k for that wreck of a house, and paying 10k for a greenfield site beside it that you would be allowed to build on, which would you choose?

(The value of the agricultural land in that area would be less than 10k an acre as it would not be productive land by any means. And there is no shortage of spare space there)

And I'll give you a hint to help you - it would be more than likely that you would have to incorporate the existing structure into whatever you built if you go for the 95k option. This will likely increase your build costs a lot and restrict what you can do....but you can even ignore that for your answer. Do you think the existing structure really adds 85k compared to a greenfield site?

BTW, your understanding of the meaning of "fundamental analysis" is way off

BillyHaelyRaeCyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520313#Comment_121520313

Build social housing on the scale of the past, in tower blocks in the areas between Dublin airport and Swords and in the areas between Citywest, New Castle towards Wicklow. Build them on the scale of the European new towns of the 1960s and 1970s. Supply bus routes direct to town. Have them for teachers, nurses, gardai etc and all the other working people who work in Dublin but cant own. Accept it will cost a lot and treat it like Covid, an emergency that simply must be paid for

Change lending rules for those with clean renting records for 4 years of a monthly mortgage payment of 2/3rds of their rent for a 100% mortgage as they have shown repayment ability

downtheroad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520314#Comment_121520314

You need to speak to a mortgage advisor. If your 2nd job is paye employment it should be taken into account for mortgage purposes.

55k gross allows you to borrow 220k. Put your 10% deposit in, and there is property available for you to buy in Dublin. Some of that property is in Finglas, Tyrrelstown, Ballymun and Tallaght, but its in Dublin.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520313#Comment_121520313

Supply is the only solution - supply of housing and workers.

Supply is increasing year on year.

The number of people working in construction is increasing every year.

The number of people in apprenticeships is increasing every year.

We've hit an equilibrium on rents and house prices in Dublin.

"Building loads of social housing" isn't a solution on its own, as who builds it? Where are these magic workers going to appear from? Also it's still the same cost as private housing.

One promising factor is the huge oversupply of offices which is imminent next year. This means all that construction capacity can move to housing.

One "canary in the goldmine" of this is that the big office planned for the DIT Kevin st site has stalled construction. I'm guessing they are currently crunching the numbers and considering switching to apartments.

Likewise the Children's Hospital is finishing up next year. There's 3000 workers on site who can move to housing.

Also no big public infrastructure projects are happening right now.

So we might hit a sweet spot next year of most of our construction capacity is focused on housing.

I suggest people read this report on Dublin:

https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/7ae27-housing-supply-coordination-task-force-return-reports-q1-q4-2023/

BillyHaelyRaeCyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520335#Comment_121520335

I have, you need the 2nd income to be consistent for 3 years. And its only 1/3rd thats counted. So it worked out at 170k. The issue is then the need for 50k in a deposit, you need 20% for 1 beds. 2 beds are all over 200k so its still a need for near 50k. I cant save anything like that, my rent and bills is half my income

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520321#Comment_121520321

You won't get planning permission on farm land there. So it's a moot point.

I explained quite simply why the property is worth 90,000.

Even though it's an isolated area, West Cork is very popular with tourists.

Not far from Kenmare either.

It's definitely not overvalued.

downtheroad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520346#Comment_121520346

I'm sure you've seen this already but €150k in Drumcondra. A 20% deposit is €30k and you're able to get a mortgage for the balance. Granted €30k is a big ask to get your hands on, but beg borrow (don't steal) and hopefully you might be able to get a property.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/14b-prospect-road-glasnevin-dublin-9/4639549

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520346#Comment_121520346

It's not a perfect solution but live in a van for a year or two.

Some people love it.

Look up #VanLife on YouTube or Instagram

BillyHaelyRaeCyrus

Fine Gael Voters message to Irish workers, live in a van.

It would take me at least 6 or 7 years to be able to save 30k

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520329#Comment_121520329

Who builds all these social housing new towns?

downtheroad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520367#Comment_121520367

Ignore this one , cash buyers only

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520365#Comment_121520365

As I said, your understanding of the term "fundamental analysis" is way off.

To take an extreme example, if we were back during tulip mania a few hundred years ago, you are effectively saying "this tulip is 2 million because some other eejit paid 1 million for one half the size". That is what we would term marking the tulip to market. A fundamental analysis would be "well, the only other practical use of this bulb would be that I can use it to feed my pig for the day, and that would be worth a Euro at most ..... or maybe it can give me a nice flower that will last a week ... and that might be a fiver"

If you can tell me that you would pay 85k for someone to build that structure in that state on a greenfield site, then you would be correct with your 95k valuation as a fundamental analysis. If not, then you aren't.

deirdremf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121520235#Comment_121520235

Here we are discussing the cost of working class housing in Dublin, and you're dreaming about owning an AirBnB?

Some people might think that's a major part of the housing disaster in Dublin today.

And I might wonder about your empathy levels.

BillyHaelyRaeCyrus

Ultimately home owners are calling working non home owners stupid for supporting Sinn Fein because they guess their policies wont work. Without realising for us the policies in place now are a disaster

Im out. They dont understand the reality and never will