Share Picks 2024

notsocutehoor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122345955#Comment_122345955

Why? If you need the money or think they are a spent force then yea, otherwise? The incoming government are setting out on an extremely ambitious house building programme, I presume Cairn will be a beneficiary of this to some extent

JVince

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122300865#Comment_122300865

Good call and I think they are stonking value. AMD similar.

I wanted to buy last week but spare cash I had coming didn't arrive til yesterday and was hoping to get in under $33. Looks like that has sailed, so will hopefully get sub $34 today - and rue the fecker who promised me they'd pay me last week

In at $33.75.

antimatterx

Nike looking like a buy

decies

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122357536#Comment_122357536

company is a mess though reading in the FT

JVince

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122357536#Comment_122357536

I'd hold off. Its losing its "star" value. It made a catastrophic error of pulling out of thousands of stores thinking that the world would only buy online and in company stores. It also pushed prices way above the mass market wanted.

Now that they realise their errors, they are trying to correct them. They are back targeting wholesale customers such as the major department stores, but the problem is they used to have massive wall space in stores and that will be very difficult (near impossible) to win back. They are also planning a substantial $100 & less collection, but that market is quite crowded and suffers from heavy discounting, so margins will be lower.

And then they are fighting against a resurgent Adidas and New Balance and the new kid on the block On Running (sales growth of 20%+ a year and becoming "cool")

Too many headwinds

littlevillage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122361456#Comment_122361456

Good synopsis. The expression "comes and goes like fashion" is not one that sits well with my investment philosophy.

Over the years, I have dabbled in fashion brands, Boohoo, Levis, Gap, American Eagle, even Arnotts ... they are all very cyclical, you might be lucky and be invested when they release the numbers on a blowout quater, but mostly they are very flaky and the trend is always downwards.

The one that did make me a few quid was TJX (they own TK Maxx) and have had a couple of great years since the cost of living crisis hit. I'm out of that now as well.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122361456#Comment_122361456

Yes, Adidas was the one to buy - their new management identified early on that online only was not working and they needed a big shift. That combined with surge in popularity for relaxed fashion runners like samba/gazelle has seen their shares bounce back.

Too late to get in id say, Nike though will struggle to see the same level of resurgence

marathonic

Speaking of fashion, Lululemon is really struggling this year too - down well over 40% year-to-date.

I'm tempted but, as has been mentioned before, brands can come and go. Will Lululemon products be sought after in 5 years? Who knows?

marathonic

That's one hell of a bad day for the chip sector today. I used it as an opportunity to open a position in ASML.

I've seven short cash-secured put option positions expiring on Friday. Right now, the only one in-the-money is Airbus. It's at a €135 strike which is just 2% off the current price so it remains to be seen whether I'll be assigned.

crushproof

Certainly good news for Intel, finally creeping back up.

patsy_mccabe

Anyone buying Ryanair at €13.55? I sold all mine last Dec at €18.55. Looks like value again.

littlevillage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122415355#Comment_122415355

Yep, bought some. They are down from a recent high of €21.50 in the Springtime. Soo even if they only go back to where they were a couple of weeks ago (€18.50) it'll be a nice profit.

banie01

The near 40% dump in Dexcom this morning has piqued my interest. I've bought into a small position there. I had previously had exposure via the eToro diabetes smart fund but I pulled out of that a couple of years ago.

My new Dexcom position is a long term hold.

patsy_mccabe

Jeez, 3M up 20% today on back of good earnings. The best single day gain ever.

homewardbound11

o

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122429979#Comment_122429979

on top of there already generous dividends .

marathonic

I quite like BASF at current levels. I'm currently short some cash-secured put options expiring on August 23rd at a €41 strike.

I also think the luxury brands, like Burberry, Kering and LVMH, are worth keeping an eye on. They've had a hell of a tough year and I've not jumped in just yet - but I'm watching closely.

I do hold a position in Rémy Cointreau on which I'm currently down about 10%, lessened via intake of some options premium along the way. Thankfully, I've not held too long as they're down over 50% over the past 12 months.

patsy_mccabe

I see that Buffett is selling off Bank Of America (BAC)

marathonic

Fingers crossed for those of you holding INTC - hitting 52-week lows in todays market bloodbath but earnings after the bell in an hour.

ASML is my play in the semiconductor sector, though I may take a smaller position in one of the fabicators.

JVince

Bad results from Intel. Stock below $26.

My position closed out at just under $31 and I nearly went back in, but didn't . Market is looking like it is entering some turbulence.

Ouch - gone under $24. A 10 year low.

Going to be difficult to recover confidence from here.

marathonic

Yeah, AMZN are struggling after hours too, down 5% at present. Apple is the other big one with earnings after the bell and they just turned red in after-hours trading - just by about 0.25%.

I see NVDA in after-hours trading is trading up over 1% so, hopefully, that's a sign that the dire earnings may not spill over to the rest of the market tomorrow as it's struggled enough today.

crushproof

Yikes what a day, crushed by Intel here. Thought I was smart getting in a few weeks, what an astounding collapse today.

Bocadilloo

Been dipping in and out of intel the last few weeks taking minute profits. What a kick in the teeth with those results. I'm sure these are worrying times for those in Leixlip, especially after the sale to private equity.

JVince

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122455164#Comment_122455164

I think the private equity is a good thing for Leixlip as Intel will not renege on any deal with a major private equity partner.

Its the jobs in admin, chip design & marketing that will be most affected as Intel move towards their foundry model.

Anyone in manufacturing should feel safe enough, but if your job is office based, you may get the opportunity of a real good redundancy package to help the pain of seeing share options become near worthless

marathonic

Another tough day ahead it seems. Was odd to have ASML halted in trading for close to a quarter hour at the start of trading today.

Europe is struggling and US futures are well down, even after yesterday's big sell off.

I'm already in ASML but could end up taking a position in NVDA soon too.

patsy_mccabe

Intel (INTC) is also my worst performing stock. I was waiting for it to drop below $25 to buy more. Crystal ball time ???

I see it has a market cap now of $130.86B compared to NVIDIA of $2878.5B. How did it fall so far behind?

marathonic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122455416#Comment_122455416

Those market cap differences will shift dramatically in NVDA's favour at todays open…. and, to think, it wasn't that long ago where some INTC investors were calling for Intel to buy up the, much smaller, NVDA.

bish76

Is INTC a buy at this price or it would fall further before recovering ?

marathonic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122455783#Comment_122455783

That's a difficult question to answer. In pre-market, it's currently trading at $22.75.

If you're to believe the analysts, this is what I see since the release of results yesterday:

Jeffries cuts price target from $34 to $28
Deutsche Bank cuts price target from $38 to $27
Bernstein cuts price target from $35 to $25
TD Cowan cuts price target from $35 to $25
Morgan Stanley cuts price target from $36 to $25
HSBC downgrades to reduce and cuts price target price target from $35 to $19.80

So all analysts except for HSBC believe there is upside potential from the current pre-market price. However, it doesn't seem a screaming buy. I'd probably wait to see how things shake out next week - though that may mean missing a potential bottom.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122455399#Comment_122455399

The foundry business is still bleeding money. Their internal customer (i.e. intel chip design) is their main source of revenue.

Intel processor division is still profitable, I can't imagine they'd cut much of that. It's things like mobileeye (being spun out), IoT/wearables (think that's been mostly if not totally gutted by now), networking and edge computing (non-server AI accelerators).

Despite the hammering big tech has been taking over the last month, demand for chips still seems high and reports of glut post COVID in supply is going away and companies are starting to order new inventories, which is good long term and potentially good for Intel foundry. The big risk for them is that TSMC scales up enough to absorb all the extra demand and intel gets little of it.

TSMCs backlog is Intel's business essentially. Getting first time customers to use Intel Foundry is the difficult part if they can get bookings at TSMC instead

patsy_mccabe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122455783#Comment_122455783

Impossible to predict. Hard to predict long-term too. If intel was selling directly to the consumer, you might have a better feel for things.

It's price today could head below Book value. Crazy.