Tuesday 9 January, chance of lying snow Munster / South Leinster

Rebelbrowser

I said I would pen a thread here just for a bit of fun. This is not an "event" even if it comes off. And straight off this looks to me to be a 50% shot for, especially, higher ground, in west Wexford, south KK, south Tipp, west Waterford, north Cork, south east Limerick and east Kerry. I think it is unlikely, even if it comes off, to be lying snow in Waterford and Cork cities and suburbs, but we live in hope. I'd give them a 10% chance of seeing anything other than a dusting / slushy mix as we are too near the coast. The shower trains will need to be cooled by travelling over the colder land before they fall as snow - i.e. the relatively warmer water over the sea will be the problem near coasts. I don't think there will be precipitation at all in Limerick city.

All that having been said, there is also at least one model suggesting more widespread snow tonight affecting a lot more of Leinster (eg Kildare etc).

Moreover this is NOT a thread in relation to a possible proper cold event next week. You can keep up to date on that in the t 120+ thread for now. If the guidance continues as is / improves then no doubt one of the other posters will open a thread in the coming days. My money is on the amphibian.

Anyway, back to tonight (the risk really is overnight into Tuesday) and I have pasted below the latest guidance from the models. Going on those, the sweet spot right now is somewhere around Carrick-on-Suir.

I should say, the reason why you might get these showers tonight is because of an extremely cold upper layer of air that will be above us for a few hours overnight - ca. -10 at 850 hPa (usually ca. 1,500m but its not that cut and dried I understand) is suggested by some models. Such cold air traveling over the relatively milder sea (and wind is forecast to be brisk and SE'ly) will trigger streamers or lake effect snow. See the stickied thread about parameters needed for snow in Ireland to understand this all better.

Anyway, we can capture thoughts on this snow chance on this thread for the next day or so and we can close it then so as not to confuse things with the (hopefully) bigger event we are watching out for next week.

torres9kop

Now I’m starting to get excited. Love when new threads are opened 😃

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121586175#Comment_121586175

Not sure there's the basis for much excitement but I hear ya!

Rebelbrowser

Actually, Met Eireann are acknowledging the small risk now too I see...

"...Tonight

Tonight will be very cold with a widespread sharp to severe frost, and icy patches. Dry, apart from a few wintry flurries across the Southeast and East with a light dusting of snow occurring locally. Patches of mist or fog also. Lowest temperatures of -5 to +1 degrees in a light easterly breezes.

Tomorrow

Tuesday morning will begin frosty and icy with a light dusting of snow locally...."

January Snowstorm (the hopefully aptly named!) has been flagging this risk for days in fairness to him and will be delighted to see ME now on board...

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121586355#Comment_121586355

Kicking and Screaming they come to the party!! 😆

JanuarySnowstor

Lots of snow reported in southeast uk now. The control really beefs up the ppn over Ireland tonight. Chance for a yellow snow warning yet in my opinion. Wow were Met Eireann late on this one, not even a mention until today

SouthWesterly

Big question is, I've to drive from Kerry to Dublin on Thursday at 6 am

Will I be faced with the same antics as last year of snow on the barna gap and artics sliding all over the shop going up the hill as I navigate around them heading to the Capital?

Reckless Abandonment

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121586684#Comment_121586684

Kerry Council

InAtFullBack

Several SE England reporting showers of snow - two of which are sleet: Andrewsfield and Heathrow. Temperatures generally around 2c in the region this lunch time. I would think this is a decent chance of some light snow showers into the southern third of Ireland tonight. One to watch.

Rebelbrowser

As per photos below, some reasonable snow now in SE England (screen shot below also clarifies I am NOT a subscriber to the Torygraph..)

nacho libre

I saw a video of snow in North West London. If you believed some of the models a few days back it was going to be bone dry in the South East of England, so it just shows you ninja snow can pop up. So maybe some places in Munster could wake up to a nice surprise tomorrow morning

esposito

Met Éireann very conservative when it comes ti forecasting snow. Let’s just see what happens. Exciting 24 hours to come especially for the south and south east.

Rebelbrowser

The 12z ICON seems to beef up the precipitation tonight but the South Coast stuff seems to dissipate when it comes on shore. Has sporadic showers all along the east coast also....

DOCARCH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121587354#Comment_121587354

To be honest, can't really blame them. Hard profession to be in. Dammed if they do/don't!

snowstorm445

The same snow that hit southeast England this morning also hit Brussels and much of Belgium here earlier. A flurry or two was all that was forecast, it ended up snowing heavily for about three hours with a good coating on the ground. Very much a ninja snow episode.

Hopefully we'll see something similar for the south of Ireland later!

gerrybhoy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121587209#Comment_121587209

I went over the the Celtic Rangers match the other week, no snow forecast then the morning of the match it was like a bastard blizzard

pureza

I know I'm the sceptical one here but showers making landfall tonight in South waterford once they go inland will most likely be snow and its those that will make their way across North Cork and Tipp if they survive the journey that will give a dusting

I'm more sceptical of showers where they make landfall being snow because of that marine element and of course that's dampening Cork city's chances

Not so sceptical inland

I'd forgotten tbh about the sea-level pressure and 850mb levels being higher,you can probably add at least half a degree onto the predicted temp at 5000ft with that and every little bit doesn't help

titan18

Will this be nice enough that I don't have to go into the office tomorrow?

Leg End Reject

I'd love a blast of ninja snow to shut everything down for 2 or 3 days, a lovely way to break up the most depressing month of the year.

I've loads of bread in the freezer too! 😂

Donegal Ken

I was more surprised parts of the east last night were not under a ice warning with all them showers coming in falling as freezing rain which was more of a danger . Some areas will see a dusting locally Tuesday morning in the Southeast and South but nothing disruptive. The Met Eireann HARMONIE model has a train of showers moving over south Waterford, across parts of just North of Cork City that's around 2am 3am.

Later around 4am/5am it brings the risk of Northern Waterford into south Tipperary.

Based on there model it doesn't look like it would be enough to warrant a warning but live in hope.

Brendan offaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121588373#Comment_121588373

All of the country was under a Fog/ ice warning⚠️

Donegal Ken

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121588424#Comment_121588424

There warning last night was only for fog no ice warning included.

JanuarySnowstor

Showtime now in a few hours!! We should see the radar kicking off around 10pm in the Southeast. My bet is a late yellow warning but not issued until after midnight!

Brendan offaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121588507#Comment_121588507

Met Eireann issued a low temp / ice and fog alert for the whole week.

Last Saturday till this friday.

giveitholly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121588534#Comment_121588534

Thought that was only an advisory?

JanuarySnowstor

The ppn is just moving West of Wales now where it was snowing lightly!! Hoping now for some real action as the cold uppers move over the ocean. Slight ppn already being picked up on the coast, spits in the wind. We should know how this is going to turn out by 11pm tonight

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121588677#Comment_121588677

The Kermit of Cork……..great updates, keep them coming!!

dsmythy

You really are snow starved. Best of luck to those in the zone of interest.

jArgHA

Right, I'm heading out now to sabotage the snow shield.

Reckless Abandonment

Everyone in the south east tonight..

highdef

Temperatures are not very conducive for lying snow, never mind falling snow, in southern and eastern coastal areas. There'd want to be a fairly significant and rapid drop in temperature for anything wintry to materialise in those areas.

Dazler97

I'm in the northwest carrick on shannon so please if there is flurries or even snow showers upload your videos and pictures 📸

DOCARCH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121588976#Comment_121588976

Certainly not expecting anything (other than rain) in my part of the east coast! Currently 5.0c in my part of Greystones (DP -0.2c).

Looks like some ppn has reached the Wexford coast now.

Speak Now

To mild in Waterford anyway, we never got a break in the cloud this afternoon to get that sharp drop in temp at dusk.

Rougies

Very light snizzle here in Wexford, about 10k east of Enniscorthy

JanuarySnowstor

I wouldn't worry about temp. They will fall as ppn moves in. It's all about the next 4 hours!

pureza

Currently in Arklow 👇 Feeling Baltic in 30kmh Easterly gusts

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121589331#Comment_121589331

Yes but with the ground having warmed above freezing during the day combined with mainly light precipitation (a few moderate bursts are likely in places), any non-heavy falling snow will have a tough time settling, apart from inland and/or on high ground.

Higher parts of Cork city and the likes of Cork airport may get a light covering (2 to 3cm), if there is enough intensity. The airport terminal is at about 160m ASL. In Cork city, the likes of Knockaheeny could be well placed and to a lesser extent, the high ground to the north of the Lee/N8.

I don't know much more about the geography of Cork city and surroundings so can't really comment further.

Squidvicious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121589331#Comment_121589331

I'm in South Kilkenny(fairly close to Waterford City). I'd say you're right about not worrying too much about the temp. It's 3c here but we've just had a few snow grains/graupel so I can only assume that we've got quite low dew points. My guess is that many parts of the South and East will see falling snow. However, the question is whether it will be heavy enough to allow accumulations given the temperatures. My guess is that there won't be a whole lot on the ground come the morning. Then again, I'm a pessimist when it comes to snow(many decades of bitter experience!). So hopefully, I'll be proven wrong.

InAtFullBack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121589422#Comment_121589422

Temperatures are just below 2c and a RH of 74% giving dewpoints of -2.3 and a wetbulb of 0.2c. If there is any precipitation that falls at moderate levels (2mm/hr) it will snow, below that moderate level I'd expect graupel.

JanuarySnowstor

Final ppn chart of the event! The best yet both in intensity and coming in off the coast...18z

JanuarySnowstor

Cold pool got a fair bit North in the end, right the way to NI

Dazler97

Even for me in carrick on shannon snow is expected at 3am or so but even a flake I see falling I'll be happy 😊

JanuarySnowstor

All the local apps around Cork are now picking up snow between 12 and 4am. It's looking good, another night of broken sleep if any sleep at all lol

Rougies

Nice moderate burst of grauple here near Enniscorthy. Radar looks lively for a while, those lower 850hpa temps moving in over the southeast are kicking off convection nicely.

Dps are low but temps are relatively high. I don't expect to see any accumulations, but falling snow will be nice to look at.

JanuarySnowstor

Remember guys netweather radar is best for seeing intensity. Plenty ppn building to our Southeast. The heavier the better obviously!!

TheMilkyPirate

Snizzle / sleet / cold rain in Wexford town. Encouraging really as didn't expect anything till later.

West waterford the sweet spot I think and somewhere will definitely have a nice little covering overnight.

Leg End Reject

Is there any chance of a stray flurry making it's way to Kildare?

Rebelbrowser

Have to say I was expecting colder temps at this stage. Not optimistic

Dazler97

Some pushing into wexford now ,blue is rain , green is mix and pink is snow

pureza

That pink is over Mt Leinster I think

We've had ice pellets like sand blowing in my face here just outside Arklow

Dewpoint is a respectable-2.4c with winds due East gusting above 40kmh...Brrrrrr !

Here's a current shot from weather display from the Davis

The wind is actually howling