The US and the UK strike Houti targets in Yemen overnight. Good or bad?

volchitsa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122392111#Comment_122392111

It’s really quite depressing how people on opposite sides of the political spectrum seem to take delight in this. “To hell with the risks of all sorts of long term damage to the world as long as someone sticks it to someone I don’t like” - and in this case, weirdly, both sides seem to be projecting their own views onto the houthis in that regard.

Montage of Feck

So are the Houthis still the good guys?

volchitsa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122394423#Comment_122394423

Seems they are more of a blank page for anyone with a grudge to project their own wish to blow up the world onto.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122394420#Comment_122394420

Is it really both sides (?), I thought it is more of a far left "tankie" thing. Certainly most of the people who posted on thread who are taking delight in it, seem to be pro Russia as well, while seeing the Houthis as (somehow) striking a blow against Israel/for Palestinians.

The Houthi pirates/terrorists totally depend on Iran for the weapons, maybe also for targetting and planning. They can do nothing by themselves, without all these quite sophisticated Iranian weapons, drones, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, anti ship missiles, usvs…

It's really quite incredible the arsenal that Iran has handed over for use of a fairly crazy bunch of Islamic fundamentalist weirdos who believe in Global Jihad. They are better armed than many nation states.

I think the Iranians are playing with fire, the recklessness of the regime there + the Republican guard especially is astounding IMO. Am not at all confident of Iran's control over where all these weapons will end up later and what targets they may be used against in future.

volchitsa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122394502#Comment_122394502

Dunno - I guess that's the biggest group alright, by far, but Silverharp, whom I quoted there, would be more of a Trump supporter I'd say.

Maybe the Venn diagram connection is "Jew haters"? Or just a general desire to burn down the world? I really don't know.

On your other point, about Iran, yes absolutely. I'm in occasional internet contact with an Iranian Kurdish family (long story, we've spoken on the phone/Whatsapp video calls, but obviously have never met) and they hate everything to do with Iran, Iranian nationalism and religious extremism, although they are nominally Muslim (not Shia) but are not very religious.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122394686#Comment_122394686

Yes, I forget there is a strong strain of antisemitism and forms of the very old "Jews control the world and spread corruption" conspiracies in the MAGA right wing, with a new gloss put on them.

It is funny because the Israeli far right/Netanyahu love them, and they hope Trump will return to power!

Odd on the face of it I suppose, that is also playing with fire and hoping you won't get burned. They think they are smart enough to use the MAGA Republicans for their own ends as they hate Muslims far more than Jews (currently), and will likely write a blank cheque for Israel in its ongoing wars.

volchitsa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122394771#Comment_122394771

I imagine it's a bit like the way the French National Front/National Gathering or whatever it is they're now called, have reinvented themselves as friends of Israel despite having a traditional antisemitic base to their support.

It seems to be all about which "cause célèbre du jour" can best be exploited for internal political gain. Yesterday it was Israel and the Jewish vote, today it's the Muslim vote that's on the up so now the Palestinians matter more.

brickster69

Tel Aviv declared as not safe by the Houthi's as it's new long range drones strike it.

https://twitter.com/revolutionaryem/status/1814132916156317993

silverharp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122394420#Comment_122394420

its not a matter of delight its a matter of bad geopolitics, the world it too connected now to them a "them" bad "us" good approach to the world, things are never going to be binary again

volchitsa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122399961#Comment_122399961

I mean, a slave-holding society - with literal slave markets - that treats women as mere brood stock vs a flawed democratic system - yeah how could anyone see that as binary?

silverharp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122399996#Comment_122399996

I dont give a **** or know anything about the Houtis but Im sure they can be leaned on or given support by other countries in the area. If the last few years have shown anything its that the Americans are on a downhill course while the "global south" in terms of population, tech developments etc is more influential so its not the 80's anymore and attitudes will need to change

20silkcut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122400146#Comment_122400146

why are people from the global south willing to cross seas and deserts and mountains to get to the global North/ west in greater numbers than anything I have seen in my lifetime. A disused paint factory in coolock or a grassy patch on the banks of the grand canal is seen as more attractive now than much of the global south.

TheValeyard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122398909#Comment_122398909

Looks like it's been hit by a second one according to tweets. Waiting for video evidence.

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122400671#Comment_122400671

It's nothing compared to what the ICJ has just done.

TheValeyard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122401040#Comment_122401040

Would countries now legally have to update their maps?

silverharp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122400626#Comment_122400626

Thats a false dichotomy, its not that its becoming a better place to live just that their governments have more power, back in the 80's you (the US) could control all these sandal wearing hillbillies not so much now especially as all the "pirate nations" are teaming up ie china Russia Iran etc.

Trump might have a short term solution of scaring the Houthis for a bit but its not a 20 or 30 year solution

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122399961#Comment_122399961

What would "good" geopolitics be in this sitiuation I wonder - any suggestions? How do you practice this "good geopolitics" with a group that seems to be pretty crazy?

The stuff mentioned by poster you responded to makes them sound like a kind of Shia ISIS. It is a group of violent Islamic fundamentalists that IMO just want to see the world burn, that Iran have taken under their wing as a useful tool to generate some chaos and hurt the US/West. As have posted before I believe main party that suffers from this is actually Europe, not the US, not Israel.

I suppose if one looks back up the chain of causes and effects, maybe Genius Trump shouldn't have poked Iran quite so hard by putting Mr "Bomb Iran" (John Bolton) in his cabinet, junking the JCPOA agreement, and then assassinating their Revolutionary guard general (Soleimani). Not that it matters now anyway.

I am not sure what you mean by "binary" here either? Piracy and terrorism against international shipping is quite bad, most countries agree on that I think. There's not much grey to it. Even ones like Iran who are backing this, may not really want to head into (or perhaps return to?) a world where this stuff is happening to everyone's ships all the time, all over the place, if they are not protected heavily.

silverharp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122402524#Comment_122402524

I would put the Houtis in the same grouping as ISIS so "nuke" em as far as I am concerned, but the US needs to sit back and consider and they cant will things to happen like they used to , at the moment they are just provoking too many countries and they dont appear to be able to "walk and chew gum"

I assume Trump will be an improvement as there will be a more pragmatic deal making approach, the question will be what follows, its only 4 years so the US could easily revert to "business as normal"

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122403355#Comment_122403355

There is no way Trump will be an improvement (from our pov in Europe). I am certain of that and I struggle to understand the mindset of his supporters, esp. non US ones like you. He is Mr. "America First" after all. Evidence of first term suggests a second Trump admin. could fail to execute any plans it may have now, or do anything coherent.

I think the US has been doing what you say under both Obama and Biden (being pragmatic, trying to keep stability + continuity in a changing world where they + the West are less powerful relative to others than they were in post Cold War period).

All the alliance building Biden has been doing in Asia. Trying to coordinate others and get them to agree with the proposition, well, if you are not so happy with often peremptory and aggressive way China handles things since it has come into its own as a superpower/regional "behemoth", you are going to have to work together, and with us to keep them in check to an extent. We can't do it alone any more.

Also their approach to invasion of Ukraine. They have been cautious and gradual about helping them. There may be attitude that Russia's militarism and aggression is mostly a European problem and while the US will help Ukraine and European allies a lot as part of NATO etc., they won't swoop in to try & "fix" it e.g. by snowing Ukraine under with military supplies.

They want Europeans to take much, or most of the burden of helping Ukraine. It's far less stark than what Trump would do of course (since he will cut off Ukraine completely and may even decide to aid Russia e.g. by ending US sanctions), but I think that sense we can't do it all and others must step up as well is part of the reasoning behind the calibration of US support (other, maybe more important part is remaining worries about "escalations", and instability + possible irrationality of Putin's regime).

edit: sorry, straying even more wildly off thread topic of the Houthis there perhaps.

silverharp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122404384#Comment_122404384

Trump will take the bandage off regarding Ukraine, will be good for Europe in the long run over the stuck on stupid the EU and the US is now,Trump changes the equation and allows everyone a way out.

Obama wasnt great in stability terms , One funny reason Brexit happened was the refugee headlines spooking the British public which was the product of the whole Bush Obama era, US overreach and destabalising countries that should have been left alone and used diplomacy instead would have been better with a lot less people killed

brickster69

US / Uk and Israel strike Yemen

https://twitter.com/MuradAbdo22/status/1814691767482024256

TheValeyard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122404961#Comment_122404961

More confirmation of this.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1814687247217696874

Sponge25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121606572#Comment_121606572

That's the one benefit of Trump. He doesn't play around and people know that so they're less likely to make any destabilising moves.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122404819#Comment_122404819

You are contradicting yourself in a way here. You say US (relative) power and their ability to influence world events has reduced, but now claim Trump can come in and "rip the bandage off" (assuming you mean he will end the war quickly whether Ukraine/Russia want that or not, as he's promised publically). No US president incl. Trump has the power. He can't make Ukraine capitulate and accept the awful terms on offer now, he can't force European countries or the EU to stop helping Ukraine, and he can't make Putin stop and accept limited gains from his war either e.g. territory they had to ruin and expel most of the people from to take, vs the important goals he had at the start.

On second para., you are either forgetting history or distorting things by conflating the Bush and Obama eras, and naming it all as "overreach". The Bush presidency was the one that decided to invade Iraq to topple Saddam, remake it as a democracy that would be thankful to America for knocking off the dictator, and decided to emabark on nation building in Afghanistan. Neo-cons, "Project for a New American Century", the concept of hard US power being applied to spread "freedom" around the world etc, these bad ideas came out of the Republican party, and were put into practice while Bush was president.

The legacy of Iraq and Afghanistan was bequeathed to Obama. Any (new) military interventions by the US under Obama were more restrained. I think the main one would have been bombing ISIS in Syria and Iraq + helping the Kurds to destroy them. That seems like a very good thing to have done to me, a kind of no brainer decision. They backed up the UK/France as regards Libya; I don't think they were driving that one. They pretty much left Russia alone to work their will on Syria, and in Ukraine. They really did very little in hindsight about Putin annexing Crimea either.

You can't rewrite history just because the Republicans under Trump have done a complete (and head melting) 180 and disavowed this Bush/Neocon era as a mistake + are now all in on a return to "America First"-ism, with strong echos of Charles Lindbergh etc.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122404961#Comment_122404961

hmm not seeing anything about more US/UK airstrikes, at least the bombing of that oil depot seems to be reported as an Israeli airstrike. Would be unusual for US/UK, as I think they have been pretty cautious in limiting themselves to some direct military targets they can spot, vs bombing a large piece of "dual use" infrastructure as Israelis have done here.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3g68g11445o

silverharp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122405441#Comment_122405441

I dont see the contradiction with Ukraine, if the US want it stopped as one of the main backers it will stop but its on the back of the US cant be involved in every conflict. Thats going to be the theme of the next 4 years "we aint the world policeman" or that the US works more through negotiation and proper diplomacy. The US still has Leverage if it uses it right

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122410531#Comment_122410531

It must be awful disappointing for the far left like yourself that the US no longer polices the world and can no longer be blamed for everything in some far off corner that is of little consequence in a modern world

Next to no US trade goes thru this area, they simply don’t care anymore about a bunch of feuding medieval warlords living in a desert who want to go back to 8th century or more, with their slave markets and all that good stuff

Most of the trade that goes thru here is Chinese, they claim to have the largest navy now and have bases nearby let them protect their own trade, and or Egypt can step in → a country that has the largest navy in Mediterranean and who is directly losing billions in shipping companies avoiding the canal, critics of the US wanted a multipolar world, well here yah go, tada

The last time European bound trade was blocked by ottomans in 15th century the result was traders going other way and discovering Americas, this time we probably endup with manufacturing being brought back to Europe (already happening in US) which is a good thing, and probably automated swarms of AI sea and air drones patrolling alongside what little east west trade remains

The biggest loser in long term are Gulf states and China, but both have plenty of money to address these pirates instead of hoping like they are now that US does it for free

Edit: Well they want to go back to Middle Ages and looks like the Israelis are helping them get there now

https://www.twz.com/news-features/details-of-israels-long-range-strike-that-decimated-yemeni-port-emerge

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122410531#Comment_122410531

A new Trump admin. can (possibly - I am not so certain of this either) ensure Ukraine loses the war. I suppose if that's bringing about a "peace" in your mind 🤷‍♀️ - same kind of "peace" that Soviet army eventually brought to Finland in the Winter war, or the Soviet army and the Wehrmacht brought to Poland in WW2!

Anyway, I think cutting off the US aid could have the opposite effect to bringing "peace" (even of the grave). It is quite possible:

1. Putin (and the key backers of his project in China/Iran/NK) will make an extra push and go on offensive when they see US support for Ukraine withdrawn. Even more death and more destruction brought to Ukraine.
2. Countries threatened by Russia as next with their heads on the chopping block (E. and N. Europe) may wade into it further. More weapons, fewer restrictions on their use, maybe even soldiers sent (to W. Ukraine?). After 2-3 years of all this they may not accept sitting there meekly and taking it + doing nothing, while the US sabotages all prior efforts and (potentially) lets Ukraine get destroyed.