Cold spell - 14/15th January onward

nacho libre

I am still hopeful of us getting some snow next week,but there were times where it looked like we could get something akin to December 2000 . What is frustrating as has been mentioned previously is the really cold air is there in the arctic for a good northerly but the evil shortwave blunts it just as its about to deliver. Maybe February will deliver a northerly of old or perhaps a north easterly, but I am getting a feeling of de ja vu looking at the ec46 extended. Still maybe the mjo in phase 6 will work in our favour this time to deliver a proper High latitude Block that stands its ground this time. Get it together HLB!

WolfeEire

That's quite the 850s Mean for Dublin at 6pm on Monday in tonight's 18z GFS. Minus 9.2c

InAtFullBack

Another mostly busted flush 18Z GFS rolling out if you are wanting countrywide snow. Some coastal northern areas and later on down the west coast get some on-and-off throughout the coming week, though nothing hectic away from upland areas in these regions.

If it's just cold and fine you want, it's a decent run. Most days maxes of around 2c or 3c and overnight mins of around -5c, perhaps a -7c or -8c over the snowfields of the Antrim hills.

The Atlantic roars back in on Saturday morning in the wee hours unfortunately as has been indicated for quite a while now.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121609050#Comment_121609050

Countrywide snow was never seriously considered in the 120hrs plus thread as a possibility as far as I can remember, aside from that brief showing of a frontal system a couple of days ago. The original post on this thread makes a specific mention of Ulster and west coast as most likely locations for snow. Gfs op looks like it has overegged that mild sector again by the way.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121608756#Comment_121608756

I remember watching that live as an uber excited 10 year old!

squarecircles

Next week looks like trash, amazing to think only a few days ago MT was mentioning significant disruptive snow,

you know its all gone down the toilet when people start discusing memories.

InAtFullBack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121609078#Comment_121609078

Just analysing each model run as it's published, nothing more.

All the major models have pulled back from this being a borderline severe cold spell to a more nuanced affair as of last night's GFS 18Z run. That's four-in-a-row now tempering the cold weather spell ahead.

I do hope that the models are totally wrong, I do enjoy a good old cold and snowy spell. I appreciate cold and dry weather also - so while not trying to piddle on anyone's hopes and dreams I'm just pointing out the trends of where the models think this cold spell is going.

Carol25

I wonder will met eireann extend their cold weather advisory?

InAtFullBack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121609190#Comment_121609190

They most likely will. I think I read somewhere that -2c will soon trigger a yellow level warning for cold! (up from -3c).

Gonzo

This is beyond saving right now, a busted flush for sure if you want nationwide cold and snow. Let's be honest here, we have had several cold spells over the past 5 years but none of them delivered widespread snow, a few places, mostly coastal areas got lucky with some snow but for the most part it's been frost and cold which is fine and a welcome relief from the Atlantic. But after 5 years of waiting for enough snow to at least make a snowball and all we get is what looks to be another mostly snowless and low level cold affair with some patchy frost is just so disappointing considering what we could have got, but as always what can go wrong will go wrong. I'm giving this winter one last chance to deliver in February. This is another monumental giant sized bust given the potential and it's time to move on. If February doesn't deliver time to move on again and think of the potential summer heat plumes, those have a better chance than a proper cold and snowy spell in Ireland.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121609277#Comment_121609277

You did see it ,as I read it this evening ,because global warming it's not -3 its -2c and instead of yellow warning mean speeds 50 km/h to 65mk/h its 55 km/h to 65km/h and if I'm not mistaken red mean speed brought up to 85km/h up from 80km/h

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121609292#Comment_121609292

We got 3cm of snow in January 2021 in carrick and that lasted a few hours then transitioned back to rain 🌧 i have to say we in the northwest and even the north tend to get more snow than the rest of the country

InAtFullBack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121609292#Comment_121609292

Indeed, on previous model runs all the ingredients were there to deliver something noteworthy, and with all the extra moisture in the atmosphere and even the stratosphere (Thanks Hunga Tunga Volcano) the conditions should be conductive to more snowfall from this than what is currently projected.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121609315#Comment_121609315

That is very true, the north-west will always get snow every winter from cold zonality, it may be transitional but it's alot better than nothing and here in Leinster and much of Munster bar a few exceptions it's tumbleweeds every winter.

WolfeEire

Wednesday evening has been looking like the most likely time for snow potential from the N. The most recent GFS shows this potential and now the 18z JMA. Conditions certainly suitable for snow and potentially additional risk for more of the country due to an unstable flow with plenty of kinks in those isobars showing.

Rebelbrowser

Lads, save the post mortem to next week. There is still a decent chance anywhere in the country could see lying snow for a time next week. For some of us it might only be a 20% shot, but even they come home 1 time out of 5. Keep an open mind. In the reliable (during the next 4 days) it gets very cold. Let's see how those days go before we worry about the rest of the week.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121609323#Comment_121609323

Well from what I've noticed as I used to live in firhouse Dublin 24 up until March 2019 and even when we viewing houses it was snowy 🌨 and icy ,Dublin does tend to miss out unless its an easterly or north easterly of course but the wicklow mountains tend to get around 50 days a year of snow but that's obviously mountainous areas 💯

InAtFullBack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121609344#Comment_121609344

I have to re-emphasise that my comments (which may be disappointing to some) are just focusing on the most recent run from the major models, with a little added 'where is the overall trend'. I would love nothing more to wake up to a foot of snow and an overnight min of -12c at some stage during the oncoming week. As regards a post-mortem before this spell (not began) got interesting - some of us older diehards have been here countless times before. Ireland and snowfall is like an abusive relationship.

Rougies

This is what usually happens. Granted I only started model watching in 2009, and the models have gotten better, but little has changed in terms of the underlying trend towards the norm. Before we had access to model output, the first you'd hear about this cold spell would be MetE/MetO saying it's going to get colder with northerly winds, wintry showers in the north, frosty nights and that would be it. That happens almost every winter and has done for decades. Even if the models were more bullish about significant cold we'd probably end up in about the same place. 5 days is key, >120 hrs really is FI unless cross model agreement is very good.

WolfeEire

Met Eireann long range and next week summed up well. Also, they are sending us on to a new rollercoaster at the end of the month 😭🤮

Week 1 (Monday 15 January to Sunday 21 January)

Significantly colder than average temperatures along with lower than average pressure are strongly favoured for this week. Precipitation is expected to remain below average, however. By Monday 15th January a cold northerly airflow will be established over Ireland. A good deal of dry weather with spells of winter sunshine can be expected up to and including Friday for many, although it does look like showers will affect northern and western areas at times and some of these showers will turn wintry in nature as they drift inland from the coasts. Cold frosty nights will occur and the frost will likely be slow to clear, if it does at all on some of the days, as daytime highs will be well below average in the low single figures. A change in regime looks likely towards the end of the period with Atlantic low pressure bringing a return to generally mild, wet and sometimes windy weather. There is potential for some low temperature and ice warnings during this period.

Week 2 (Monday 22 January to Sunday 28 January)

Low pressure, wetter than average conditions and slightly higher than average temperatures are all favoured for week 2. High pressure is strongly favoured over the nearby European continent, indicating a dominant southwesterly airflow over Ireland. Spells of wet and sometimes windy weather look likely for this period as a result with low pressure centres sweeping up to the northwest of Ireland. There is potential for some rain and wind warnings during this period.

Week 3 (Monday 29 January to Sunday 04 February)

A return to higher than average pressure is favoured towards the end of January and into early February. This would bring generally drier than average conditions with temperatures returning closer to normal. A return to widespread night-time frosts and/or areas of mist and fog can’t be ruled out.

Week 4 (Monday 05 February to Sunday 11 February)

Similar conditions to week 3 are favoured in week 4. Higher than average pressure, drier than normal conditions combined with near average temperatures and an increasing chance of below average temperatures. Widespread night-time frosts and/or areas of mist and fog are possible

Dazler97

Current temperatures and feels like temperature

almostthere12

What has been disappointing for me so far with this cold spell is the cloud cover and lack of frosts this week which I thought would be a nice build up to next week. Was the cloud due to the orientation of the high?

Next week I always expected to be what it is now showing as northerlies are normally dry for Cork and that slider low the models were showing would probably only have brought us sleet so I am looking forward to the hard frosts and near ice days.

Hoping the Atlantic only stays with us for a week and that the flip someone mentioned in the long range doesn’t mean we are looking at another 3 week spell. However having read what Tamara said on netweather there is a part of me looking out for another flip for the end of next week, could we be so lucky!!

Slashermcguirk

Trying to remember when we got that superb ninja snow day here in Dublin 5..I think it was January 2021 when irish Sea streamers gave us heavy snow for about 5 consecutive hours (early morning to lunch time. It was the weirdest thing because I had friends in city centre and south dublin who said there was no snow and yet the likes of Donaghmede, raheny, Clarehall, coolock and up towards baldoyle, sutton etc were under a blanket of snow for a couple of days. Had the sledges out and kids were even able to build snowmen. For days like that when you least expect snow you can get a great surprise so I won't write off the coming week. I was also lucky enough to be staying in Leitrim in late January 2019 when massive snowfall hit out of nowhere and there was a great covering and I remember driving back to Dublin and as soon as you reached Longford/ westmeath border there wasn't a flake that had fallen. I think like these snow events for me in recent years post 2018 some places might get a sneaky covering of snow over the coming week

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121609456#Comment_121609456

Remember it well, I was living out around that area in Dublin at the time and went for a walk when it started to snow, big fluffy flakes and the last decent snowfall I have seen!

Btw 24th January

Meteorite58

Well there may not be signs of widespread snow showing up after seeing all those early teasing charts but there will more than likely be snow along the N, NW, and possibly parts of the West and maybe bits down along the SW especially over high ground, could see some down along the E also and the Wicklow mountains should get a bit of snow, should see some nice white mountain tops around the country too.

Also chance of wintry showers moving inland some bit and wont be surprised to see reports of decent local snow showers moving inland some bit in the Northern half of the country. Hail too and graupel. will see as the days go on if there is a chance of any thunderstorms along Northern coasts.

Could get rain at times falling on very cold ground especially around Tuesday with following freezing temperatures which could prove to be tricky for some commutes. Looks like we could have a fair share of crisp winter sunshine with bright sunrises giving the possibility for some nice frosty picturesque scenes. Looks like the further you are down south the less chance of wintry precipitation.

You never know though we could get some showery snowy troughs at times which if they move inland a bit could produce some decent local snow.

Looking at the charts it shows freezing quickly and early in the evening around dusk for much of the week and slow to clear during the day, no doubt some frost might stay around for days in sheltered spots.

Still showing from around later Fri or Saturday rain fronts moving in off the Atlantic rising the temperatures and possibly windy too.

The precipitation charts below area a rough guide to the possibility of it turning wintry and will get finer tuned as we move on.

AROME already showing it barely getting up a couple of degrees on Sunday with the chance of some light wintry precipitation, possible dusting of graupel I would think.

sparrowcar

Get the cold in = check

Worry about the precip later = check

Still a few twists and turns to come.

sryanbruen

I've never seen so much moaning for an incoming cold period because it's not a beast from the east. Yes it's disappointing given the weeks of anticipation but it's going to be cold and there will be wintry showers in the north. There will probably be plenty of deep blue skies even if no destabilisation occurs to give showers.

With the shortwave and slightly modified airmass from the northwest for a time on Tuesday based on the evidence we have, it will be slightly less cold and cloudier but the other days look crisp and fine. Dew points ranging between 0 and -5C all week, locally less, indicate this is a dry airmass and confirms the above. Make the most of it when it comes rather than dreading what's likely to come next weekend, particularly given most of this winter to date after such a mild December.

nacho libre

I am looking forward to some nice pictures next week. We had some fantastic ones during the December 2022 cold spell.

pauldry

I am not really disappointed by this at all. Never was convinced but we might see a few hours snow around Wednesday or Thursday but I think by the weekend it will be milder. It always looked like the cold would just fail to seep down.

In other news we had a max of 2.4c and a min of 1.4c on Friday in Sligo