Cold spell - 14/15th January onward
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End of week cold/mild prospects
Just going back to this and I know MTC subsequently mentioned the possibility of a slower warm up at the end of the coming week. The overnight run of the GEFS (top) is a little more aggressive with the breakdown than this morning's run (bottom). All members show a low rapidly crossing the Atlantic, each at a slightly different angle. The majority hit us head on and the remainder gave a more southerly or northerly trajectory. There has been a further increase in the number of members showing a more southerly tilt to the system as it approaches us. At this point, I would say the period from Friday through Sunday holds some interest for, at least, higher ground in Ulster and mountains elsewhere with the potential for precipitation to start out as snow there. The trend is absolutely toward less cold conditions but the scatter in temps from Friday is quite extensive. It will feel raw in that wind as the cold rain smacks us in the face 😭 anyway, worth keeping an eye on the below. I've used a low lying central Ireland location (Athlone) for the purpose of presenting a neutral Mean example for this post
I enclose the link to the 850s for the GEFS for anyone interested. It's set at default for Dublin here
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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ECMWF 06z surface temps at 2 metres for the coming week. Little precip away from Tuesday on this reading for the Midlands
This chart shows air temps and precip for Letterkenny
The Cork readings show little precip of any nature
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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Out cutting wood in the garden atm, enjoying the opportunity to clear away the winter jobs, overcast cool benign day, quiet, can hear a small airplane close by move up and down the power coming into land at a local airstrip, great spell of weather really and the ground is drying out well.
Looking at the ECM and ICON briefly there certainly looks to be an upgrade in wintry precipitation moving in Mon into Tues across from the NW to E kind of direction, weak enough system, probably decaying on transit but still possible for some snow. On the latest runs it looks to be a bit heavier and moves further across the country. One to watch, might only give a dusting to some but could give a couple of cm's in places too.
I think one of the features early in the week will be very dangerous road conditions after rain freezes. Along the W and SW and E showers straying inland could also cause difficult driving conditions .
Post edited by Meteorite58 on4 -
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You got the same as I did, Rebel. You got the dying embers of a disturbance moving down in the west coast in a slack northerly/variable that soon turned NE and shifted focus on the north and east. Below sat image from Dec 2nd
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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Significant northerly shift of the Azores low in the ICON 12z. About 100 miles further north. It would clip southern England and stay just offshore of our southern coast. Even if it were to reach us, it would do so during that mild sector so it would be mostly sleet at low levels.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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The ICON delays the breakdown on the 00z run which had put it down for Friday morning. On this run, it looks like it will hold until late Friday and even then, it will remain on the cold side into the weekend. The Jetstream is shifted/directed a little further south again. Furthermore, the op run below is much milder than the ensembles mean.
Meanwhile, wintry showers feeding in from tomorrow evening.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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