In the event of united Ireland could DUP attract a significant vote in the Republic / 26 Counties ?

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121898427#Comment_121898427

It takes all sorts but personally I'm not a fan of cold blooded murderers - especially those who claim to have killed in my name when I and my forebears explicitly voted against such slaughter.

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121898486#Comment_121898486

There's a reason for that... 🙄

Sam Russell

I thought the Arlene Foster said that in the event of a UI she would be leaving. Presumably many more would be of the same mind, so maybe there will be few left.

That already happened in the 1920s following independence when many unionists left.

So, NO, not many Irish voters will be voting DUP.

Hotblack Desiato

I doubt that that many people who'd been living here for generations left (unless they lived in a stately home and it was burned out!)

There were lots of British-born civil servants, army officers, etc. working here and when their job went, they went too.

No, next question.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121900342#Comment_121900342

In all likelihood there'd be some cushy number promised the Unionist hierarchies to be part of the new Ireland, as community representatives if nothing else. Foster might say she'd leave but if there was the prospect of being a big fish in a small pool she might change her tune. Whatever shape or form a UI takes it'd surely have to contain some kind of "protected" status for the anxious unionist community being pulled into a scenario they didn't support...

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121707542#Comment_121707542

Emma's a Little ...

And then there was the whole Mrs Robinson scandal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121900747#Comment_121900747

Its always been my opinion that the only way to get it over the line would be a federal structure with regional assemblies. This would be an equally difficult idea to sell in Dublin as in Belfast - as both have a very centralized command and control mentality.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121900672#Comment_121900672

There was a fair amount of good old ethnic cleansing going on in the 1920s. Particularly down in Cork and even the SE. I have distant relatives who ran a sweet shop in a provincial town and who were threatened in the 1930s, had to close up and moved to Belfast for safety. We want your shop so feck off.

If the DUP or UUP were a party down south, I'd look at their policies like any other and vote accordingly.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121900760#Comment_121900760

If you mean by federal structure retaining Stormont or NI, then that is going to be a non starter for the vast majority of Irish voters.

No matter how the federal structures are configured, the fact that Dublin/greater Dublin has too many living there to completely dominate any federal divisions, and the economy of the Ireland.

Eibhir

Would there be about 8% of the population of the Republic who would vote to return to the Commonwealth?

I know a fair few people and their families who downed tools to watch Harry and Megan's wedding and other royal events, they'd be descendants of strong Southern Unionists pre partition. They are generally heads down and rather quiet since independence. However, their relatives fought in WW2. They have relatives who went to the UK and NI.

I don't know what way that 5-8% would vote given a Unionist option. Would their Unionism trump all the negatives of the DUP? I don't know.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121901189#Comment_121901189

Would there be about 8% of the population of the Republic who would vote to return to the Commonwealth?

Before Brexit? Maybe. After and since 2016? I'd say any lasting appeal of British institutions well and truly disintegrated in the face of Britain's choice to be an economic parriah.

Eibhir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121901204#Comment_121901204

That's a good point.

lawred2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121698220#Comment_121698220

Authoritative Irish times survey...

To be honest, I'd like a second opinion.

There will always be a very small cohort who will support the opposite of what everyone else is supporting. Then some who won’t have forgiven the IRA, never mind about Loyalist atrocities. Others who wished we were under British rule all the time and only see great things about the British Empire. They might get 2% or more vote from original republic citizens as well as from unionist citizens of old NI. A minority overall, but not one to be dismissed as totally irrelevant.

Then when economy and other stuff goes down the pan, and it might initially before things settled in, some would view it as failure of a united Ireland, and DUP might start gathering votes from those dissatisfied. There would undoubtedly be plenty of elements of unrest in certain quarters from time to time. I’d be very nervous of how Ireland might shape up.

Grassy Knoll

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121901255#Comment_121901255

Prof Brendan O’Leary a distinguished politician scientist in an Ivy League US university, some one who identifies as a nationalist and has written books on a UI is behind it…. This would be the gold standard in terms of opinion polling and analysis, but you probably know all this anyway

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121900760#Comment_121900760

A 9 county Ulster assembly will have a strong nationalist majority. Even a six county one will no longer have a unionist majority, after all this is post a successful UI vote. So what is the point?

There really is no point keeping Stormont and just changing the flag on the roof. NI is a failure and a UI vote means that NI's existence will have been rejected.

gym_imposter

The DUP absolutely could tap into a voter demographic down here , farmers might be inclined to vote for them as they have always been very strongly pro agriculture

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121904786#Comment_121904786

There will be more people not born in Ireland than Unionists.

I doubt unionism will appeal to that cohort. The DUP are a subset of unionism, so their appeal will be even less.

Now the DUP are anti-Irish in every respect, so I can not see their appeal for anybody outside their own little bubble.

gym_imposter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121904908#Comment_121904908

They can't trade on anti irishness if the island is united , they absolutely could court social conservatives etc

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121905737#Comment_121905737

Do you mean by 'social conservatives' the ones who mock the country by their constant spiel of 'only in Ireland'.

gym_imposter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121906248#Comment_121906248

No , I don't mean that voters down here will likely vote for the DUP in large numbers though through the passage of time, who knows?

A hundred years ago in America, hardly any Irish Catholics would consider voting Republican as they were viewed as anti Catholic or least the party of WASP,s

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121904786#Comment_121904786

You clearly have not spent much time in rural Ireland if you think they would vote for Unionists.

And Unionists were not pro agriculture just pro landed gentry who happened to own all the farms.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121901189#Comment_121901189

8% ? 0.27% of the electorate voted for Herman Kelly in the last EU election so there's no support for leaving the EU which would be needed to join the UK.

Different people watch different soap operas. Some watch (job stealing immigrants The Saxe-Coburg-Gotha's) The Windsor's , I'm watching Brexit it's been going since 2015 and still going. In both there may be some upcoming cast changes.

Irish Electorate is now 3,438,566 and 2022 figure for NI was 1,373,731

For a UI it'd be 3 million votes if there was a 62.3% turnout

The core DUP support is ~ 184,000 ( GE 2015 184,260 Assembly 2022 184,002 )

DUP looking at ~ 6% First Preference

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121906619#Comment_121906619

Assuming they got 6% FPV, how many transfers would they need to stay in the race?

I doubt they would get any transfers unless they changed their pitch to the voters.

Eibhir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121906619#Comment_121906619

No you don't get me.

They weren't watching the Royal' events as soap opera. They were watching out of a sense of loyalty. Mostly COI people with latent allegiances, nothing wrong with it, it's their ancestry. Very evident in rural areas.

When Haughey scandals came out in the 90s my late dad was talking to one man of that background. One of the first things he said was 'imagine the Queen had to shake his hand'! I know my area and the people well, very good neighbours. But I don't for a second not think some still have different allegiances.

These percentages vary from area to area in Ireland. My home area in the south Midlands has a strong Protestant population and side by side active IRA membership up to 1994. Many went to march in Orange marches up to recently. Some received threats from the IRA element. The area was called 'the little North'. Sometimes people from urban areas don't appreciate that in many rural areas there still isn't a homogeneous completely Irish identity. It has absolutely nothing to do with Hermann Kelly! Land issues run deep too. When the best land in rural parishes are held by 6 or 7 families.

You have Protestant East Donegal and mixed populations in other bordering eras. Dublin and Hermann Kelly's vote their wouldn't be relevant to these demographics.

A very good read on the subject is Ida Milne 'Protestant and Irish'.

Whether that translates to a DUP vote is very debatable given financial and social issues. I wouldn't see it tbh. But a UUP type party? Who knows. Money will trump all I'd say and Brexit has swung things massively from union with Britain. But it doesn't mean in Southern Ireland some of a silent, small minority don't in some way identify as British.

gym_imposter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121906596#Comment_121906596

Most Protestant farmers in the north weren't ( and aren't ) gentry

The gentry were Anglican - COI and more prominent in the south, DUP voters and most Ulster Protestants are Presbyterian ( low church)

NIMAN

In the coming decades, I can't see the electorate wanting to vote for bible bashers bigots who believe the earth is a few thousand years old.

They would need to radically change their policies if they were to appeal to anyone.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121904786#Comment_121904786

. . . until they decided to back Brexit, obviously. I don't think a reputation as a pro-farmer party can survive that.

gym_imposter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121907591#Comment_121907591

Why ?

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121906676#Comment_121906676

Even if you identify as British, there are more attractive versions of Britishness than the one offered by the DUP.

A hundred years ago, when I think it's safe to say that there was a much larger contingent in the 26 counties that still held to a British identity/loyalty/sentiment, parties that expressed or appealed to that really struggled to find any traction. The Businessmen's Party, largely led by ex-Unionists and appealing to Protestant voters, found support mostly in Cork and Dublin. It contested the 1922 and 1923 elections, getting one seat in 1922 and two seats in 1923, plus a further two seats for the closely aligned "Cork Progressive Association". But it never got more than 2.3% of the national vote. It dissolved in 1924 and its voters and TDs mostly gravitated towards Cumman na nGaedhal.

Then there was the National League, founded in 1926 to advocate for support of the Treaty, a close relationship with the UK, continued membership of the Commonwealth and fiscal conservatism. They won 7.3% of the vote and 8 seats in June 1927, but in the September election the same year their vote collapsed to 1.6% and they held only two seats. The party wound up a couple of years later and the remnants folded into CnaG.

Much later, there was the Donegal Progressive Party, representing the Protestant and Unionist interest in Donegal in the 1980s and 1990s. They never managed to get a TD elected, but they did for some years hold one of Letterkenny's seven seats on Donegal County Council. However the party was largely a one-man show and when that one man stopped contesting elections in the early 2000s the party was deregistered.

In short, if there is much British identy/sentiment in the Republic, it has never expressed itself electorally in any signficant way. I really don't see the DUP as being the kind of party that could turn that around. To have any chance at all, they'd have to completely reinvent themselves as a rational, moderate, right-of-centre party, and that wouldn't be the DUP we know and love, would it?

Eibhir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121907613#Comment_121907613

I agree and mentioned that in my post, a differing unionist option than the DUP.

No, over the past 60 years or so a party was never formed. However many southern people who would have a more British tradition stayed very quiet post independence. A slight fear perhaps given house burnings etc in the WOI.

But as I stated earlier, in many areas of the country there are some people with ancestors who fought very recently with the British army. In my area going to Orange Order marches in the mid 90s. It's very hard to decipher what way some would vote if given a Unionist option. If it meant financial loses they probably wouldn't vote for them.

But that sense of loyalty to the British Crown, as opposed to Royal, watching is really amazing. They are a tiny number, certain areas, like my homeplace are unusual in that there's a high population of people with these characteristics.

OnlyWayIsUp

The DUP are cut from the exact same cloth as the emerging Irish Far Right. They’ll get a fair few votes from them.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121907624#Comment_121907624

I don't think "the emerging Irish Far Right" have all that many votes for the DUP to get.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121907622#Comment_121907622

There has never been an explicitly unionist party in the post-1922 26 counties, since even those who might have favoured re-integration into the UK would have recognised that it was not even a remote possibility, politically speaking. You might as well campaign for the restoration of the Irish High Kings. And that would be even more true in a hypothetical united Ireland following a border poll.

So, the question is not, would British-identifying people in Ireland vote for a unionist party? It's, would British-identifying people in Ireland vote for a post-unionist party? By which I mean, would they vote for a party that sought to appeal to their British identity, and express that through a political platform? Such a political platform would not advocate re-integration into the UK, but it would advocate, e.g., Commonwealth membership and participation, a close relationship with the UK, and the civil and political rights of British-identifying Irish citizens.

It's not true to say that they have never had any opportunity to vote for such a party because, as pointed out, there have been several such parties. But they have not enjoyed much success. Nor was this because of republican intimidation of those parties or their representatives or supporters; there really is very little evidence of this phenomenon.

Despite the failure of post-unionism to acheive much traction since 1922, it would be a different story in a united Ireland, which would have a relatively much larger British-identifying population. But of course that population would be concentrated in Ulster and would have a very Ulster focus. We have to ask ourselves if the British-identifying population in the south identifies first and foremost with Britain, or with Ulster? Does their Britishness express itself in the way exemplified by the DUP? Do they share the social conservatism of the DUP, for example? Does the the DUP brand of an insecure, domineering British identity really appeal to them? To be blunt, would they be politically more comfortable in the DUP, or in Fine Gael (which is where they mostly are right now)?

I think we both have some doubts about the DUP's ability to appeal to them, unless it changes fairly radically itself. That doesn't rule out the possibility of some other post-unionist party achieving more support in the southern part of a united Ireland than was acheived since 1922, of course. But, myself, I think a more broadly-based right-of-centre party that adopts policy positions designed to secure their support would probably do better than British community-based party.

Imagine we had a post-unionist party in the Republic right now. Such a party would face a dilemma over Brexit. Their principles of a close political alignment with the UK, of maintaining social and economic links with the UK, would all suggest that they should support Ireland leaving the EU along with the UK, so as to remain politically close to the UK and avoid trade barriers, etc, between Ireland and the UK, this being (for a post-unionist party) a higher priority than integration into the EU. But, obviously, adopting such a policy would be politically ruinous.

And that, I think, is the basic issue. If you see yourself as Irish, even as a British-identifying Irish person, you will prioritise the welfare and progress of Ireland. You will generally feel that closeness to Britain is, on the whole, the best thing for the welfare and progress of Ireland but where, as in this instance, it clearly isn't, your post-unionism doesn't lead you to favour harming Ireland in order to keep it tied to Britain. Hence the political support of British-identifying Irish people has tended to gravitate towards broad-based Irish parties; ultimately southern Protestants have more in common with their immediate neighbours, and share more interests with them, than they do with Ulster loyalists and, if they have to make a choice, they choose Ireland.

maccored

this is a nonsensical thread. there is no 'union' involved in a UI

Sam Russell

The problem with the DUP is they support a British culture that does not exist outside NI.

Where do people dress up in sashes and bowler hats and parade to the sound of pipe bands to prove their British heritage?

In fact, one test of nationality for most nations is the level of support for their soccer team, but Britain does not have a soccer team. They do not have a national anthem that is sung at their national soccer matches. England sing GSTK, Scotland sing Flower of Scotland, Welsh sing Hen Wlad Fy Nhadau (Land of my fathers). Britain does not even have the country's name on their postage stamps - the only country not to do so.

Most English people describe themselves as English. They speak English. Belong to the Church of England. The Central Bank of England is the controller of the legal currency. Do they think they are primally English or British? Most Scottish people see themselves as Scottish before being British, and likewise the Welsh.

I think the DUP are unlikely to get ant traction outside Antrim.

gym_imposter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121907613#Comment_121907613

Sure if FG reinvent themselves as a rational moderate centre right party ( one can dream) , the DUP won't be a distant consideration for any voters down here

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121908244#Comment_121908244

Regardless of what FG does or doesn't do, the DUP won't be a distant consideration for many voters down here. No voter who is looking for a rational moderate centre-right party is going to vote for the DUP as the nearest alternative.

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121907656#Comment_121907656

You are so far wrong when you say "Nor was this because of republican intimidation of those parties or their representatives or supporters; there really is very little evidence of this phenomenon."

The house burnings and murders and phone calls in the middle of the night and tyres slashed and grafitti daubed on walls have nothing at all to do with it, says you. Even moderate nationalists like John Bruton was daubed "John Unionist Bruton" by some as an insult. His protestant colleague in Fine Gael, Billy Fox from co. Monaghan, was called a "B Special" in the Dail by two FF ministers, some time before Billy Fox was murdered by the pIRA.

Unionists south of the border tend to keep their heads down post Irish Independence.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121913018#Comment_121913018

Can you point to any accounts of TDs or public representatives of the post-unionist parties, or supporters or activists, being targetted? There were post-unionist parties, as already pointed out, and if you want to make the case that they were suppressed by intimidation, I am open to hearing it.

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121913064#Comment_121913064

 Even moderate nationalists like John Bruton was daubed "John Unionist Bruton" by some as an insult. His protestant colleague in Fine Gael, Billy Fox from co. Monaghan, was called a "B Special" in the Dail by two FF ministers, some time before Billy Fox was murdered by the pIRA.

The like of completely innocent unionist politicians "up north" like Edgar Graham and Robert Bradford were murdered by the pIRA. When the pIRA murdered completely innocent people up north because they did not agree with them, do you think everyone down here would tolerate such a viewpoint without any intimidation at least from some. And look what happened poor Charlie Bird 18 years ago on O'Connell st Dublin: he was knocked to the ground and assaulted by a mob who called him "an Orange Bastard". I have heard people taunted and called "West Brits" in a very menancing tone over less.

If there was a U.I., there would be no danger of  the DUP attracting a significant vote in the Republic / 26 Counties, because they would be intimidated or out. The railway stations were named after "patriots" when the British left the last time: if the British left N.I. , I bet the government would not be long re-naming the port at Larne " Bobby Sands port" or "Pearse McAuley Port".

No, the DUP won't attract votes from the 26 counties. Post unification, the Unionists parties will face an existential crisis, the union that they are all named after will no longer be. So what do they do - and at this point it will be individuals who decide a trend - do they continue as-is and fight (politically) for a re-unification with GB, do they band together as one party (likely the DUP) and do the same, do they start to join parties from the Republic, do they stand as independents, do they give up politics altogether, do they follow as Arlene Foster suggested and migrate to Scotland, etc, etc. Also at this point don't forget the parties in the Republic will also have to figure out what they do, do they field candidates in the 6 counties immediately - would there be a leakage from the moderate parties to existing parties in the Republic ? Similarly will there be some level of public migration from Ireland to NI where there is cheaper housing which might dramatically alter voting patterns ?

Lets say all Unionists band together under the DUP banner (unlikely as they're a fractious bunch but still), will they field candidates in any of the 26 counties ? Highly unlikely as their funding would not likely be sufficient (it may even reduce) but more because to field candidates would give some sort of credence to a new Ireland that they would not want to give. They are much more likely to field candidates in areas they know they will win (so maybe not even in parts of Tyrone / Fermanagh, say) and fight for a re-partition of Down and Antrim. imo anyway.

Another point worth noting, there are 18 MPs in Northern Ireland, one per 110,000 people (not voters) or thereabouts, whereas in the Dail there is 1 TD per 30,000 people (not voters) or thereabouts, so the number of TDs arriving from what used to be N. Ireland would be proportionally around 50-60 and not 18, so quite a significant number.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121913311#Comment_121913311

The makeup of those would not map directly to a larger number, due to PRSTV. Better to look at the split in Stormont, which has 5 MLAs per MP, PRSTV in the same constituencies. UUP, Green, PUP, TUV and Independents represented who do not have MPs

Constituency boundaries would likely change as they're out of the limits for being under-represented if given 3, or over-represented if given 4.

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121913311#Comment_121913311

Thats a good point. If there was a U.I. ( which there will not be for a few generations at least, but say if there was ) , would the number of TDs from "the 6 counties " increase, or the number of td's in the 26 decrease?

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121913469#Comment_121913469

The number of TDs is population based, unless the constitution is changed.

NI would need a minimum of 63 on its current population, but its normal to give a tiny bit of padding to make constituencies easier to align, so say 65 for now.

ROIs would not change from the 177 that there will be at the next election.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121913504#Comment_121913504

Presumably Dáil Éireann would need substantial works to fit that number of seats or else we'd have to change the representation ratio

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121913586#Comment_121913586

From memory of being very bored while waiting for something to break in the media rooms and counting the seats, there's not even enough seats for the 177 TDs we're about to have.

With in-seat voting, that is going to be problematic...

I'd be in favour of cutting the ratio to 1:50k, and in return increasing the powers and salaries of councillors and ordering TDs to ignore parish pump stuff or stop whining about the workload

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121913586#Comment_121913586

Or change the number of TDs to a fixed number - say 165, as that is how many the current chamber can accommodate.

The DUP would be further right than any party represented in the current Dail, but some independents might be that far right. However, there are more parties in NI than the DUP who only get south (see what I did there) of 30% of the vote. Now the population of NI is about one third of the republic, which would put the DUP at less than 10% of the TDs in the Dail. Now that might make them a possible candidate for a coalition, but I doubt it.

No, I think the DUP will disappear, but the members might gravitate to other parties - like the Communists in Eastern Europe did after the fall of the USSR. In a UI, the battle of Unionism will have been lost, but new fissures will appear to fight over.