In the event of united Ireland could DUP attract a significant vote in the Republic / 26 Counties ?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122705225#Comment_122705225

Would be a big issue too for Heather Humphrey's here and would have been for her predesscor Seymour Crawford. She'd be in a contest with them for a good share of her vote.

pureza

Has therere been a poll done to back up this nonsense or is this just more SF deflecting from their current troubles ?

Ye are barking up the wrong website for that,the boards userbase is practically dead

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122705225#Comment_122705225

The idea that the DUP would ever contest an election south of the (former) border is beyond ridiculous.

Why would anyone in FG join a party reviled by almost everyone and certain to end their political career? Considering they already had the chance to end their careers with a reviled party by joining Renua, and declined

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122705497#Comment_122705497

The desperation is palpable. Not only are SF tanking in the polls, they're embroiled in a paedophilia scandal entirely of their own making, and a leader looking increasingly hapless.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122706806#Comment_122706806

SF will change too, they have changed significantly in the years since the GFA but they won't attract DUP voters imo.

You will get a very defined political landscape in the years after unification like you did with FF and FG after Independence.

Only took 20 years to have the leader of the DUP feted at a FG congress. The ability of FG to forget is the significant thing in that.

The natural home of those of a Unionist persuasion left behind by partition has always been FG, that is just fact.

SF will hold seats and maybe pick up some in the north and I think FF will pick up seats there too - the SDLP will disappear or have another go at allying with FF imo. FG will struggle in the northern counties as they have ignored it electorally since partition.
If the DUP take the spanner in the works approach in a UI (It will be disastrous for them if they do) then FG will stand off them, but if they accept the political reality then I think they will seek to attract votes here and as previously stated the FG demographic will be the target starting with the former border counties.

Peregrinus

Only took 20 years to have the leader of the DUP feted at a FG congress. The ability of FG to forget is the significant thing in that.

I'll leave aside the idiocy of imaging that if a DUP figure is invited to address an FG meeting, that means that FG might merge or ally with the the DUP, still less that FG voters might consider voting for DUP candidates. You only have to say that out loud to realise how stupid it is, so it doesn't really require rebuttal.

I will, however, point out that any kind of tie-up between FG and the DUP doesn't just require FG to forget; it also requires the DUP to forget. And the DUP are — famously — very, very, very bad at forgetting.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122705497#Comment_122705497

It is pure nonsense. Not only is a united Ireland a million miles away, the fantastical idea of the DUP either merging with FG or running candidates in the South is a complete nonsense. It is also a sinister attempt to paint those in the South who do not favour a united Ireland as potential DUP voters.

It really is childish stuff to be honest. Best ignored.

PeadarCo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122707356#Comment_122707356

An element of this seems to based on the fact that FG have historically been the most anti IRA party in the Dail tracing their roots to the Pro Treaty side in the Civil war. For a minority of Irish Nationalists that was an act of betrayal. The DUP are also historically very anti IRA. So the assumption seems to be that in a united Ireland that FGs anti IRA stance would attract DUP voters as a result. It's ludicrous that FG and DUP voters would drop their respective nationalist and unionist positions to oppose an organization that no longer exists(unless you count dissidents). That's before you even talk about FF, SDLP, even SF(if you only count the last 20 odd years). All hold the same position as FG and the DUP when it comes to nationalist paramilitaries at least in the present day.

At the same time there is a contemporary political dimension to this. Suggesting that DUP voters would vote FG is an attempt to portray FG and other parties who opposed political violence as being less nationalist or not even real nationalists. Basically an attempt at 1920's in the 2020's.

If inviting a person from the DUP to a party conference is bad, it shows a complete lack of understanding what a united Ireland would/will involve.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122707356#Comment_122707356

still less that FG voters might consider voting for DUP candidates.

This is not a derogatory reflection but I know these people and to state that a current FG voter in Monaghan/Donegal/Cavan/Louth who attends OO marches in the north and who hangs a UJ in their community halls and churches would not be attracted to the DUP if they stand candidates in a UI is a huge stretch tbh.
Not saying that Heather or Neale Richmond would decamp to the DUP but people from their backgrounds in the future could quite conceivably.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122707484#Comment_122707484

A lot of your observations are based on everything remaining the same tbh.

FF and FG were diametrically opposed and things changed to the point they are now governing together. 'Old divisions' were put aside because at the end of the day power is the game.

A UI will see a dynamic shift in the body politic once again here, it will be a case of realign/change or potentially die out.
I can see it happening in the north as we speak and here, that will continue apace.

taratee

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122707592#Comment_122707592

As a matter of interest, what re-alignment, change and death can you see in politics in NI at the moment?

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122707500#Comment_122707500

There's maybe enough of them to elect a few councillors, though. Like the Donegal Progressive Party when it existed.

A party occupying the DUPs space may get votes from others, but the DUP itself would not.

I still think the UUP are more likely to be able to position themselves as a barely-centre-mostly-right, keep the Commonwealth type party in UI and take votes from, mostly, FGs old voter base. They'd need a complete name change though.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122707709#Comment_122707709

I think the UUP have undergone a massive change since the GFA. Similarly SF and even the DUP have been forced to moderate somewhat and enter the executive. Big change from the days of not even shaking hands,

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122707484#Comment_122707484

Fine Gael was arguably the most anti-Provo party in Dáil Éireann. As you point out, they trace their roots back to the Pro-Treaty side in the Civil War and the Pro-Treaty side was, of course, IRA. Fine Gael is the party of Michael Collins; others may forget that but the DUP are unlikely to.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122707765#Comment_122707765

Politics here changed. Divisions were put aside and alliances between foes were made. (See the current government)

If the DUP back a militant reaction to a UI, they are gone politically.
What is probable IMO, is faced with a do or die scenario, a shift will be made just like the huge one that Paisley made after the GFA.
Think of what a once staunch Unionist behemoth like him set aside/forgot to do what he did. Forgetting Michael Collins will be an easy thing to do.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122707849#Comment_122707849

The shift within Northern Ireland will happen a long time before unification, and will derail the kind of unity you have in mind. The smart unionists will seek the maintenance of a distinct Northern Ireland within a federal island, one that can retain cultural links with rUK, probably with those cultural links copperfastened in a new all-island Constitution. Stormont will remain as is, with increased powers of devolution. In doing this, they will capture the middle as well as the substantial majority in the South who don't want a united Ireland with trouble.

Expect to see the Alliance Party focus over the next decade on the importance of Northern Ireland first, constitutional issues second. That will become the endgame.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122707873#Comment_122707873

Not really a thread to debate whether a UI will happen or not. It presumes a UI has happened.

In the event a UI happens I think you are nearly there on what Unionism will do. As mentioned, the Ian Paisley's etc will be pragmatists and seek to survive.
It will seek to maximise it's vote while maintaining it's cultural links and most certainly try to copperfasten fasten those links. That's an entirely legitimate thing for them to do.
Who will they see here as natural/historical allies in maintaining those links? The John Bruton's, Garrett Fitzgeralds, Heather Humphey's and Neale Richmond's and the party they were and are members of.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122707970#Comment_122707970

You are making an assumption about a particular type of united Ireland. That is a type of united Ireland that is extremely unlikely to happen for all the reasons I have set out. That means it is a fantastical idea.

If you want to talk about the future of the DUP in a united Ireland situation, which is what this thread is about, you have to consider alternative forms of a united Ireland in which a DUP successor would flourish. A DUP party that exclusively runs in Stormont, refuses to take its seats in the Dail, while being First Minister in Stormont, mirrors the current situation with SF. For me, this offers the realistic future for the DUP, focussed on preserving Stormont and protecting the interests of British people in a federal united Ireland.

No alliance with FG, no seeking of votes in the South, but a focus on Northern Ireland and its importance.

P.S. but you will still attempt to censor my views.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122708131#Comment_122708131

The title of the thread:

In the event of united Ireland could DUP attract a significant vote in the Republic / 26 Counties ?

It presumes the DUP standing for election in what would be the former republic/26 counties.


Addressing a scenario where the DUP won't stand candidates is not what the thread is about.

By all means contribute on something else but don't expect replies.

Podge_irl

Well if everyone focused on the original question we probably wouldn't have almost 400 replies because the answer is quite evidently "No, not in a million years".

AMKC

I for one anyway would not vote for them If you paid me no matter they they promised.

taratee

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122707849#Comment_122707849

I don't see them supporting a militant reaction. I've seen nothing to suggest that there is any appetite for that within the DUP. The'll evolve like they have in the past, as you said. I'd be far more concerned about the threat of violence from Republicans who would be unwilling to compromise. Unionism and Loyalism isn't just going to disappear in a UI.

On the topic of attracting votes in the RoI, people would vote for them for sure, if they run candidates in the Republic. They might decide to remain an NI only party. The Alliance party could do really well down here.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122708263#Comment_122708263

Are you up to date with events?

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/columnists/suzanne-breen/loyalist-paramilitaries-are-knee-deep-in-criminality-drug-dealing-extortion-and-intimidation/a1176390583.html

See also the renewed threat of violence from Loyalism this morning if things continue going the way they see them going now, not to mention a UI.
This is from groups the DUP want to see consulted and involved.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122708174#Comment_122708174

I have presented an alternative idea of what will happen, one that is far more likely than any of the fantastical notions put forward by you throughout the thread. There will not be DUP candidates running in the South and there will not be a merger with FG, those are just silly thoughts. Similarly, I do not see a militant reaction by the DUP to any united Ireland because, bad and all as they are, they are a fully democratic party unlike, say, Sinn Fein (not ruling out a militant reaction from other quarters).

Why? Because the type of united Ireland that we end up with isn't even on the table yet. It won't be the simplistic republican notion, that is for sure, because that idea won't win hearts and minds. The solution will preserve an identity for Northern Ireland, because 100 years of separation has led to people up there feeling different. That is expressed in many ways, from republicans claiming to being abandoned by FF and FG to unionists who have never stepped foot down here and never will, and in between the hundreds of thousands of young people who have grown up knowing only Northern Ireland.

The sooner the phony discussions about a united Ireland stop, and republicans wake up to being stuck at 40%, the sooner we will have realistic ideas and options on the table. It will probably take some shouting and roaring for another decade and a half before that sinks in to the empty heads in the discussion and another decade and a half before a plan begins to appear.

taratee

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122708325#Comment_122708325

Ah, a small group of lunatics that the PSNI are well aware of. You still have fringe groups on both sides that have been left behind. That was always going to happen. If the DUP sees value in consulting with them and they think they are going to change them, let them give it a try. I think it's a waste of time and these guys belong behind bars.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122708325#Comment_122708325

Do you think it is wrong for political parties to consult with paramilitary groups? Yes, or no.

I have no hesitation in condemning all parties in the North that ever did or ever will consult with paramilitary groups.

Or is it that green paramilitary groups are in a different situation to orange paramilitary groups?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122708421#Comment_122708421

Seems to me their current repeated threat through intermediaries is being taken seriously. Whether it is credible is another issue and subject to speculation.
It should also be noted that unlike the IRA there is no finding of being involved in ‘exclusively peaceful means’ around these groups.

Hotblack Desiato

What exactly do you mean by "people from their backgrounds" Francie?

You're not being sectarian now are you?

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122707726#Comment_122707726

UUP underwent a massive change alright, from the dominant party of unionism to near irrelevance.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122708750#Comment_122708750

The PIRA evolved into other groups like the Real IRA etc., same people involved. Some of them stayed in the PIRA and limited themselves to drug dealing, murdering people in pubs, protection rackets and knee-capping.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122708759#Comment_122708759

Heather has always described herself as coming from the ‘minority community’ here. She is proud of it and so she should. Similarly Neale Richmond speaks of his own background.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122708776#Comment_122708776

Yes.
But their ideology changed massively, think Jim Molyneaux then think Doug Beattie/Mile Nesbitt.
Molyneaux saw the IRA going on ceasefire as 'the most destabilising thing ever' and the 'worst thing to ever happen to us'. He supported J. Donaldson and others resignation over the GFA.

He knew that the AIA and The GFA was the writing on the wall for Unionist supremacy and their veto. I think the UUP have travelled a road since that.

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122709021#Comment_122709021

Yes, they're Protestants, I know that.

You are very strongly implying that because of their background - because they're Protestants and nothing more - they cannot be nationalists and loyal to the Republic and the concept of republicanism.

You're saying they'll hop into bed with the worst dregs of semi-constitutional unionism the first chance they get.

Purely on the basis of their religious background.

Despicable stuff.

Is this what we can expect in SF's brand new world? Because they can keep it.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122709597#Comment_122709597

No I very clearly said that those who go to OO marches and who hang a UJ in their halls who vote FG would.

Read posts correctly?

Hotblack Desiato

Do either of the people you have slandered do these things Francie?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122709645#Comment_122709645

Japers, you don’t read posts do you? I said Heather or Neale wouldn’t but somebody from their background could conceivably in the future.

Quitelife

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122706806#Comment_122706806

The likes of Charlie Flanagan and Patrick O Donovan privately wish we were under British rule like the good oul days in their heads

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122709668#Comment_122709668

"Somebody from their background"?

Sectarian racist generalised nonsense. You would never use that phrase about any other group. Completely despicable, you have sunk to a new low.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122711178#Comment_122711178

How is it 'sectarian' to talk about a background she talks about herself? You guys are being silly now.

An Irish Government minister has revealed that her grandfather signed the Ulster Covenant in 1912, but describes herself as "a proud Ulsterwoman, a Protestant and an Irish republican".

Heritage Minister Heather Humphreys was speaking at a conference around the 1916 commemorations hosted by the Presbyterian Church in Ireland held in Belfast yesterday.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122711192#Comment_122711192

An individual can say "I am black" or "I am from Africa", nothing wrong with that, as Heather Humphreys was doing.

However, if you were to say that people with a black African background were more likely to vote for a political party that supported violence, you would be guilty of racial stereotyping.

In your actual case, you are guilty of sectarian stereotyping. Own it and apologise.

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122709597#Comment_122709597

Correct. In Francie Brady's Sinn Fein Ireland sometimes the mast slips, and it is quite clear how Protestants would be viewed in a U.I., especially if they did not keep their heads low.

Quote "because they're Protestants and nothing more - they cannot be nationalists and loyal to the Republic and the concept of republicanism."

Imagine if someone in England wrote about Catholics there that they are Catholics and nothing more, and that they could not be loyal to Britain?

Despicable stuff from Gerry Brady and the SF camp. Same as how some Republicans think that if you are not Catholic you cannot really be Irish, or if you are not Republican you are not really Irish.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122711924#Comment_122711924

I have taken part in discussions with Heather about her background. She has no problem speaking about it and is rightly proud of her ancestors. While she claims to be republican many of those from a similar background still maintain membership of the OO and the link with Britain. They currently vote for FG They will be the target
of the DUP.
If you wish to censor that point that’s your issue. Kindly take it up with the mods.
There is absolutely nothing sectarian about it as a point.

Irish History

???

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122712038#Comment_122712038

So from what I can see, you are basically trying to tarnish her (and Richmond) without foundation but then reference people like her to get away with it. In my opinion, you are trying to muddy the water.

With my mod hat on: stop it!

maccored

In the event of united Ireland could DUP attract a significant vote in the Republic / 26 Counties

What would the union in 'Unionist' represent? The DUP can only exist in a place where they want Union with someone

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122717630#Comment_122717630

It's a question for all the current UK/Unionist parties on the island.

I can't see any of them shutting up shop and disbanding. They will adjust and try to survive I reckon.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122717875#Comment_122717875

Well, it'll be a signficant adjustment. And I think it could involve a high degree of realignment.

The current pattern of multiple unionist parties, with relatively frequent splits and the formation of new parties that mostly go nowhere, was set at a time when unionism was the dominant political position in NI. Obviously, it wouldn't be the dominant political position in a United Ireland, so a diversity of squabbling and splitting unionist parties will be a luxury that can no longer be afforded. Plus, I think to succeed and endure a unionist party is going to have to reimagine itself not so much as a unionist party but as a party that represents the interests of British people in Ireland.

All of which means that, in a united Ireland, there might not be a DUP. Or, the DUP might survive as an entity but might not be the dominant unionist (or British) party, or the one which is most successful at attracting the votes of British-identifying people in the former 26 counties.

In fact, the less like the DUP a unionist party in a united Ireland is, the more successful it will be in picking up votes from Briti-identifying people in the former 26 counties.

blanch152

https://www.irishnews.com/news/politics/research-reveals-supporters-of-the-union-are-now-a-minority-AEVO77VEFZFJPGIRTF5A435TOM/

In spite of the best efforts of the Irish News to spin this survey, the results are stark.

Only 33.7% support a united Ireland, and despite all the nonsense about the demographic dividend, a united Ireland isn't ahead in any category.

A border poll is decades away.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122751369#Comment_122751369

33.7% is phenomenal without a plan for a UI.
Especially when disillusionment has plainly set in within Unionism, now no longer the majority view.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122752350#Comment_122752350

At current rates of progress there should be a border poll sometime around 2088.