2024 Irish EV Sales

creedp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122331427#Comment_122331427

Will individual MS be allowed to ban ice sales prior to the 2035 EU ban?

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122331376#Comment_122331376

We're close on some models.

But I think price parity for all models will be 26/27.

Batteries are supposed to drop prices 40% in next year or two also.

Who knows what affect self driving will have also.

It seems to be finally here. Lots of testing going on in China also.

I could see it spreading rapidly in a couple of years maybe as it's a trillion dollar industry.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122331281#Comment_122331281

By 2029 ICE sales will have fallen off a cliff and the talk will be about self driving cars destroying the car industry in Europe.

JohnC.

I can't remember where I saw it, but some days ago I did see a headline about the European car industry saying they do not want a delay in the ICE ban. Presumably, as said above, they will have their roadmaps already set and it could be more trouble to rejig everything at this stage.

MightyMunster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122331506#Comment_122331506

I don't see why not? If not they could just ban them from an ever increasing number of zero emission zones rendering them pretty useless for most people.

MightyMunster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122330132#Comment_122330132

Yes not many cheap and small EVs yet but in the bigger categories they are already around the same price upfront not TCO. This still includes grants etc...

Look at the best selling list of cars, pretty much all of these have an equivalent BEV at the same price level, Tuscon, RAV4 etc...

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122332041#Comment_122332041

I agree.

I think what could be a huge new segment in the future is electric campervans with solar and use Starlink for internet.

You could live completely off-grid for basically nothing.

There's a housing crisis in pretty much every country in the western world.

It wouldn't be for everyone but perfect for young professionals or retirees.

The VW ID Buzz is a bit too small and expensive but a bigger camper at a lower price would sell very well.

If you were a young tech worker in Dublin or London it would be better than spending €1000+ a month on rent.

Buddy Bubs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122332229#Comment_122332229

Like live in it full time?

Where would you park it?

A bigger electric campervan with solar would need a mortgage the price of it!

josip

And the regular trips to the sanitation block wheelin your sh1t behind you. No thanks.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122333061#Comment_122333061

Live in it for a couple of years.

Free rent basically.

There's loads of places to park in the suburbs.

Buddy Bubs

Cant park permanently anywhere, you'd be in the move the whole time. Housing estate residents would be up in arms. Shopping centre management will move you on quickly.

Then there's the cost of buying the thing in the first place which could cost as much monthly as renting, with no guarantee that you'll get that money back if you sell.

No room to live in any sort of comfort either. They are for short holiday trips, they're not accommodation.

tabby aspreme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122333200#Comment_122333200

How much would something like this cost, would there be any change out of 150,000 €, plus charges to park up in a designated area

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122331607#Comment_122331607

I see this mentioned quite a bit- how will battery prices drop 40% in the next year or two?

Have massive deposits of lithium been discovered in countries that won’t hike up the price?
Will solid state batteries be a thing?
What’s bringing the price down 40% when the price of goods generally is trending up?

CMOTDibbler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122333367#Comment_122333367

There is plenty of lithium around. Large deposits in some European countries like Portugal, Germany and Czechia. Portugal is the only country currently producing it. The high cost has nothing to with rarity (it isn't that rare), it's the cost of extracting it.

There are also battery technologies being developed that don't use lithium. Sodium-ion and graphene-aluminium are just two examples currently being developed.

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122333454#Comment_122333454

Ok but where are you getting the 40% drop in the cost of batteries from?

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122333367#Comment_122333367

It's not really the price of lithium that's affecting the cost of EV batteries, in 2022/23 we saw the price of lithium hydroxide go up by 4x which caused around a 10% increase in battery pack prices. The reason we're seeing drops in battery pack prices is due to innovation by battery manufacturers. The main focus has been on increasing energy density at a pack level, in laymans terms they are able to store more energy in a smaller area using less raw materials. They've been doing this for a long time with the more expensive NMC chemistry but have also been doing the same for LFP, and now the even cheaper sodium ion chemistries.

CATL and BYD are the worlds largest battery manufacturers, Chinese media reported that CATL's basic LFP VDA (rectangular boxes often used by German manufacturers) format dropped from 0.8-0.9 RMB/Wh to 0.4 RMB/Wh. This puts pressure on BYD to also pursue price reductions.

https://cnevpost.com/2024/01/17/battery-price-war-catl-byd-costs-down/

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122331506#Comment_122331506

That I'm not sure of, I would think not under single market rules, but they plan to and nobody has told them not to yet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122332229#Comment_122332229

You can buy an electric van and convert it. Opel Vivaro E, Fiat E-Ducato go for about 50-60k, conversions to camper vans are about 10k then

sk8board

maybe of interest in the 2024 EV sales numbers:

they are down 27% overall, but they are only down 18% in Dublin, where over half the sales happen (EVs are a Dublin thing? 😉), whereas they are down by over 33% across the rest of the country, where you’d assume there’s far fewer home charging issues, but perhaps here’s a public charging network issue.

Or - people outside the commuter counties have seen or heard about EVs and decided it isn’t for them

MightyMunster

Next you'll be telling us that people in Offaly burn more turf than people in D4. 🤯 Shocked I am

Buddy Bubs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122333948#Comment_122333948

70k, 5 year finance at 14k a year plus interest, so about 1300/1400 a month to live in a van. Plus associated costs. And being treated like a traveler being told to move on everywhere you go.

I suppose you'll have some residuals and sell it on but it's lose lose every way you look at it.

Buy a clapped out van for 5k would be a better idea of it's to save money. And still nobody does it .

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122335248#Comment_122335248

A lot do, it's called 'stealth camping'. For some it's a lifestyle choice, for others less so unfortunately. I read a blog a few years ago by some guy who was doing it in Dublin out of financial necessity and had been doing it for over a year.

https://www.vanhalla.ie/2018/08/for-urban-camping-its-curtains-for-me.html

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122332229#Comment_122332229

A proper campervan now, that you could actually live in, would cost north of 100k. But they don't give mortgages for campers, so you would need that cash upfront. Who , from the subset of folks that can't afford a house, has 100k+ in the bank?

I like the idea (and I have a 1989 Dodge Dayvan that I'm turning into a day-camper hybrid) but you'd need a lot more space even than that.

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122333948#Comment_122333948

I'd rather not consider living in space the size of the back of a van!

MarkN

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122329955#Comment_122329955

I regularly drive all over mainland Europe and I can assure you, there ain’t the volume of EVs that you’re implying.

Using France as an example, April sales were 60%+ petrol or petrol hybrid of some sort. What is noticeable is how low diesel sales are.

CMOTDibbler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122335402#Comment_122335402

That's still a very high percentage compared to us and considering the French BEV fleet is somewhere less than 2% of the total.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122335475#Comment_122335475

Germany is considerably worse, and that's with VW, Mercedes and Tesla all manufacturing domestically.

And unlike here, the MY dominates the market over VW and the others.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122335248#Comment_122335248

14k/ year is less than 1200/monthbut yes I agree… Few years time these EV vans will be going cheaply and I might look at converting one then as a pet project

CMOTDibbler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122335507#Comment_122335507

The German BEV fleet is considerably larger than France. Must be close to three the times the size by now. Was over twice the size two years ago.

MarkN

There is the side that both France, Spain and Germany can argue (somewhat unsuccessfully) that their countries are too large to travel by EV. Irish people can’t really come out with similar.

My seat of pants feeling tells me that France is better equipped than most when it comes to public charging too which I’m sure helps the above market share figure.

CMOTDibbler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122335839#Comment_122335839

Also cheaper public charging. There was a post here a few days ago about IECharge (French network that tends to install in suburbs but generally accessible from motorways) dropping their price from 30c to 25c/kWh from now until the end of August. And their chargers are generally in the 160kW+ range.

joe1303l

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122335402#Comment_122335402

France has moved to E85 fuel in a big way, it was less than 90c per litre last time I was there.

sk8board

most EU countries have EV market share similar to our 13%, with Italy at just 3%(!).

https://www.electromaps.com/en/blog/sales-of-electric-vehicles-in-europe-in-the-first-quarter-of-2024

Just back from the south of Spain, as I’m sure lots of us do, and its surprising how rare an EV is; esp compared to my Dublin commuter area, where they are literally a few on every street.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122337233#Comment_122337233

South Dublin has loads of EVs.

ColemanY2K

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122335402#Comment_122335402

i would consider those numbers to be pretty decent, they are certainly in a much better place than we are and going in the right direction…and what i mean by right direction is france's yoy 45.2% increase in ev sales compared our -41.6%.

saying that, randomly picking out one country is hardly the best way to counter what i'm saying. now just look at our contemporaries. the netherlands, BEV's made up 31% of new registrations last year. they alone have 58000+ public or semi public ev charging points in a country the size of munster. ok… the population is triple irelands but do we have 20,000 public or semi public chargers? i think we both know the answer. belgium has seen a similar increase in ev sales as france, in denmark 1 in 3 new cars bought are ev, sweden is smashing it out of the park as is finland and norway even more so. of all of our contemporaries only germany & austria recorded disappointing ev figures.

what all these countries have in common are governments who are backing the transition to ev with free road tax or no sales tax as is the case in the netherlands. we on the other hand withdrew incentives when in fact we should have been expanding them.

car companies are transitioning fast. the issue is in a country like ours with no car industry the international car companies call the shots. ev's are coming, the irish need to get used to the idea and the government needs to make it an urgent priority to ramp up support (more than they already do).

MightyMunster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122337303#Comment_122337303

I'd imagine we have more driveways per capita than the Netherlands so need less public chargers.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122337303#Comment_122337303

I agree that “EVs are coming and Irish people need to get used to it”, but in reality things are far more nuanced.

the majority of people will never buy a new car in their lifetime. Indeed almost all new cars are bought by the same small fraction of the population - Manufacturers selling to the same individuals every 3-5 years.

Also we’ve a national fleet of 2.5m vehicles. The tipping point is many many years away still, with most transactions in the car market happening in the €5-15k price point.

so yes, EVs are inevitable, however the rollout period is far more protracted than people think - and it has nothing to do with some ‘anti EV agenda’ 😀

Exiled Rebel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122338017#Comment_122338017

What will reduce the protracted period will be the cost of ownership. The older ice cars will be taxed out of oblivion with additional incentives put in place (possibly a scrappage scheme?) to encourage more drivers into new & second hand EV's.

The likes of 5 year old Dacia Springs and Byd dolphins will be in the 5-15k bracket by the end of the decade as will Seals, ioniq 5's etc etc.

josip

Do you think the rollout will take a similar time frame as horse to petrol?

World War II delayed things a bit with the rationing of petrol, but by 1950 cars were more common than horse drawn transport especially in urban areas. (Although up until 1982 I used to go with my grandad when he was drawing timber from the bog with his donkey and cart, so outliers remained, but they were outliers)

The first car imported into Ireland was in 1898. In 1904, 38 motor vehicles were registered. This rose to 5,058 by 1911 and 19,554 in 1914. Not sure if that is total or per year, but either way, BEVs are now in the same place as petrol cars were in pre WWI days. So I'd be confident that within 30 years they will be ubiquitous. And by 2040 I would expect a lot of urban areas to have restrictions on ICEs.

Exiled Rebel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122338483#Comment_122338483

I'd expect to be much quicker than 2040.

The emissions law will see to it.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122338017#Comment_122338017

I think in 5 years time there will be plenty of 2nd hand EVs for sale at 15k and under.

In theory, once 100% of new vehicles are EVs, then it should take 20 years to completely replace almost all ICEs with EVs (obviously a small % will remain forever). Also a significant % will be hybrid.

The elephant in the room is self driving cars. Will people bother buying a car if you can just subscribe to a service that's cheaper than running a car.

I think car sales will begin to drop when this happens. It might only be 5 years away.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122338483#Comment_122338483

It'll happen sooner than this.

Sales of new ICEs will be banned sometime in the 2030s.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122343451#Comment_122343451

there isn’t a self driving car at the moment - so it won’t be something you’ll be subscribing to in 5 years time for sure.

The whole industry has slowed the rate of acceleration recently, pardon the pun. Level 3 and 4 self driving trials are being pared back, Cruise, Wayne etc. Tesla can’t get there with cameras, and FSD is too expensive. Maybe maybe in cities you’ll have driver less taxis like in China.

As for Irish EV rollout, realistically we’re 8-10 years from a tipping point for EVs in new car sales (80%+ market share), and then obviously 15-20 years for those sales to replace the national fleet of ICE cars.

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122345116#Comment_122345116

There are self-driving cars operating in geographically limited areas in a number of places in the US. It's also a bit odd to say that a company that is paring back its operations by expanding into new cities and getting Californian regulatory approval for operation on highways. Saying that, I think we're at least a decade away from Autonomous Vehicle availability impacting purchase decisions.

I don't think the tipping point in sales can be defined as 80% share of new sales, surely the tipping point from a fleet replacement point of view is 50% + 1 market share.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122345116#Comment_122345116

Self-driving cars are already operating in 4 cities in the US and some cities in China.

We don't know Waymo's plan for scaling and it only takes one bad accident to set them back, but I think in 5 years Waymo will be in every major city in the US.

We'll have to see but 5 years isn't unrealistic that they'll be operating a taxi service in Ireland.

It will probably be over 10 years before it'll affect car sales though but it is inevitable.

I'm not sure about Tesla. It's impossible to predict.

In 2023 18.7% new cars in Ireland were EV.

I think in 5 years it'll have crossed the 50% barrier definitely which is the tipping point as you'll still have 20% hybrid, so only 30% will be petrol and diesel. I think this is when you'll start to notice petrol stations closing.

One tipping point which is only a year or two away is petrol and diesel being less than 50%.

Buddy Bubs

Theres still no additional incentives for companies to go EV, for the employees, yes, there's reduced BIK but for companies there's no grants for either the cars or for the chargers.

That would surely help move things along

mun1

went shopping for a new EV for the OH this week.

ID3, BYD Dolphin, MG4, Nissan Leaf were on the radar.

To say all the dealers were nervous about EV sales would be an understatement.

They relaxed a bit when we said we weren’t trading in an EV. Two of them outright said they wouldn’t be able to take an EV as trade in. (We were trading in a 2021 petrol SUV)

I have never got such good trade in values and CoC as what i got this week. Even got follow on phone calls from three of the dealers bettering their first offer and offering to pay tax, service plans etc. (weird experience with Nissan dealer).

They all seemed desperate to move their EV’s.

Me and my OH are converted to EV’s (I’m on my second EVE) and couldn't wait to change the petrol car to EV. My OH was happy with Three of the cars on offer and the BYD dolphin won the day. It was close with the MG4 which is an excellent car . Got a great deal in the end

In summary the dealers seemed nervous about EV sales and there are some great deals to be had at the moment.

TitianGerm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122345896#Comment_122345896

How much was the Dolphin before trade in? There seems to be decent prices available on the ID3 and MG4 at the moment. I wouldn't have bothered with the Leaf personally.

n.d.os

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122345896#Comment_122345896

It’s sad to witness how much media and influencers have influenced EV sales in Ireland. My wife and I are trading in her EV for a hybrid partly due to the misinformation she’s encountered from friends and social media. Despite the fact that she rarely leaves the county, she now insists on having an engine in her next car. From my perspective, this decision lacks logic but I have an EV I like so I won't get involved in her decision. However, I hope that as new EV prices continue to fall, more people will be tempted to consider them rationally. Ultimately, it all comes down to long-term savings.

mun1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122345951#Comment_122345951

€29,400 inc delivery . Comfort version.
Leaf was a bit odd alright .

If it was my choice I would have picked the MG4 exclusive trim , lovely car and great to drive , and only slightly higher CoC

beggars_bush

I can imagine a ULEZ type zone in cities in Ireland will encourage change to EVs in urban areas