The accelerating fall in Sinn Féin support

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121763290#Comment_121763290

In a free market, there are multiple variables which affect price.

So again, how did you decide on where the true floor/peak are?

maccored

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121763283#Comment_121763283

they arent anti immigration. never were. where are you pulling that rubbish from? Did SF poll their members and voters on it? Anti bad immigration policies alright. Make no odds to us Shinners that people like yourself havent got one iota about the party, yet youre here on the internet acting like some sort of SF guru. You. Havent. A. Notion about SF.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121763294#Comment_121763294

I am still waiting to learn about a single positive contribution from Sinn Fein to Irish society.

Maybe you could list their achievements while in the Executive in the North or while running DCC for half a decade.

Potatoeman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121763266#Comment_121763266

It’s always the so called socialist that have personal wealth they have intention of redistributing.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121763314#Comment_121763314

Err...did you read the polls posted above?

All the polls have consistently had SF voters as the most ardent anti-immigration group.

Check your facts.

Bobson Dugnutt

When they were throwing out the Palestinian protestors from the meeting last week you had Gerry Kelly glowering at them from the front row. Séanna Walsh was also there, along with the usual crew of bald auld fellas. Really showed that the hard men of the Provos are still calling the shots.

maccored

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121763325#Comment_121763325

wtf am I listing anything for you for? Are you mad? Go away and make you own lists for gods sake and dont be telling me what to do.

SF took the north from war to peace, and brought the nationalist/republican vote with them. Massive, massive positive change to ireland because of their hard work. John Hume was completely ripped to shreds by media and public for talking to SF at the start of it and now we have unionists who opposed it initially taking the credit. Then they built a party from a base that was banned from the airwaves to one of the most powerful in the country. Then you want me to start writing lists? cop on.

maccored

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121763331#Comment_121763331

polls? SF polls on what their members think about immigration? Where?

Those 'SF'* voters are the ones now leaving because the want Oreland for the Orish etc etc. * they were never anything more than disgruntled FG voters

Potatoeman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121763233#Comment_121763233

John Hume organised and negotiated that process, SF were dragged along dragging their feet, less than the Protestants parties though. Everyone tried to take credit for it when it was finished.

maccored

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121763350#Comment_121763350

john hume got treated horribly by everyone BUT SF, for working alongside SF in starting the talks. It was he and the reopublican movement in general that kick started the peace process. the man who danced with the loyalist death squads at orange order gatherings then went and got a nobel peace prize for it some reason for some reason. Absolutely terrible carry on

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121763345#Comment_121763345

What nonsense. Albert Reynolds, John Hume, David Trimble, John Major, Tony Blair, John Bruton and Bertie Ahern contributed far more to peace than Sinn Fein ever did. Making a virtue out of stopping killing people is inhumane.

There isn't a single tangible political achievement North and South that Sinn Fein can point to, despite their years in power in Councils and Executives. All they have done is sown division.

maccored

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121763373#Comment_121763373

its all there for those who want to know, to learn. You preach your version all you want and ignore that it would never have gotten as far as anyone outside of SF if it wasnt for John Hume and a few priest to act as inbetweens. No-one else was interested. The history is there so Im not really too concerned about the obvious holes in your outlook.

Plus, as I say, off you toddle and do your own research. Im not making any 'lists' for you.

maccored

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121763373#Comment_121763373

really funny though that you cant see that their actual popularity itself shows that they are getting support from the public. They must be really brilliant doing that by pissing off the same public.

maccored

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121763342#Comment_121763342

so whats your point? People were opposing SF meeting Biden (good idea I think if you want to give him a piece of your mind on Gaza) got kicked out. Are you making them special in some way because they were from Gaza? I know nothing about them so I cant say anything for or against them but itw as a bit opportune and was dealt with like any other disruption would be.

I have to say recently I have never read some rubbish as the kind of anti shinner stuff about today. very weak kinds of arguments. 'Glowering'? 😂

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121763402#Comment_121763402

Popularity does not equal achievement. Sometimes the loudest empty vessel is the most popular.

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121763325#Comment_121763325

There's been fantastic initiatives done in Dublin city centre regarding lowering traffic, pedestrianising more roads and making it much more cycle friendly.

maccored

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121763417#Comment_121763417

empty vessel makes most noise even? Yes. That would make sense. (lets not start making up sayings as well blanch152)

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121763421#Comment_121763421

All done since Sinn Fein relinquished control of the council in 2019.

I am looking for the achievements of the 2014-2019 DCC controlled by Sinn Fein, it was the one where they promised to build loads of social housing, but instead objected to their own council's proposals and returned hundreds of millions to the Exchequer unspent.

twin_beacon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058335203/the-accelerating-fall-in-sinn-fein-support

Its a very simple question to answer, and imo ultimately there is nothing SF can do about their fall in support.

To set the scene, SF's rise and fall in the polls is 100% because of the section of people that are not interested in politics, read the headlines only, and are VERY easily influenced by what they read online. People seem to forget that in June 2020, the most popular party in the country was FG, at 37% (a much higher figure than the 2020 election). This was based on their response to covid, they locked down and closed the pubs when people were calling for it around March 2020. A lot of those people not interested in politics were happy with the response, and leaned towards FG. However, by late summer 2020 people were sick of lock downs, and the pubs being closed, and of course MLM was out there calling for everything to be opened up. SF made gains through out 2021, 2022 and up until the second half of 2023, all they had to do was give populist responses to the main two topics of the time: Covid & Housing.

By the summer/autumn of 2023, SF have a large following (36% in Sep 23), however their following is unusual for a political party, as its is very diverse. Its consists mainly of 3 groups:

1. Republicans. Usually an older cohort that always have and always will vote SF. They are mainly "Center-Right" leaning.
2. Younger Left Wing voters. I believe right now this is the largest cohort that will vote SF. People struggling to pay rents, get on the property ladder, and are left leaning. These people made it popular to vote SF.
3. The people not interested in politics, that will say, "they can't be any worse than the current shower". Happy to vote for SF as they were so vocal on the latest flavor of the month, housing issues. Very happy to get behind a party that speaks out against the next flavor of the month.....

However, when the flavor of the month switch from housing to immigration, SF had a decision to make. Speak out hard against immigration, and lose their younger left wing voters and hand them over to PBP, or say very little and lose the third cohort. When your base so diverse, its impossible to keep everyone happy, and of course they lost voters. But I don't see how they could have done anything different.

I honestly thought SF's collapse would happen when they were in government, and they had hard decisions to make that would piss off some of their voters. Its interesting to see if and how they recover from this. As its stands right now, not even FF + SF can form a government. Its going to make for an interesting 12 months until the next election.

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2024/02/08/poll-february-2024-full-results-charts/

Bobtheman

Here is how I see SF

Advantages

They do not have their head up the holes of the various professional establishments- legal, medical, insurance. Just 3 areas that FG/FF failed to reform.

They might succeed in reforming planning. They can't make a worse job of it than this government

They will pour more money into services

The negatives

They will probably raise taxes on the middle classes as the Lower classes don't pay a huge amount compared to other EU nations. Thus the middle classes still won't get to see a doctor for free while his hoodie wearing neighbor still does for **** all

They will accelerate the exodus of landlords as they don't trust SF and SF is scaring them

They have no real experience of the public service in Ireland and it's incompetence.

TokTik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121763236#Comment_121763236

They don’t have to be in power to support something. As far back as 2001 they were looking for amnesties for asylum scammers. Only a few years ago they tried to usurp the will of the people by rowing back on the anchor baby vote, one of the most definitive referendum results in Irish history.

And that’s just one strand. I didn’t even mention their cartoon economics.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121763347#Comment_121763347

Pretty much every poll that has been issued since the asylum immigration issue raised its head has shown SF supporters are by far the MOST anti immigration.

Bobson posted one such poll here.

One question being, has immigration broadly been a good thing for Ireland?

FG 66% FF 52% Say yes.

SF 32% Say yes.

There is a real issue for SF in that their core voter base does not support the parties left wing socialist view on this topic.

If you cant see that, I dont know what to say to you.

maccored

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121764237#Comment_121764237

you cant go by polls to make statements about voter habits surely? Surely for actual facts you need to make sure you are talking to people who actually vote for them? Average polls dont do that - it isnt legal to force someone to tell you who they vote for so any 'poll' is very subjective.

Asking someone who they might vote for and pretending to take a poll of a political party's stance are two completely different things. Bit desperate really to be comparing the two

As I say though - they ARE losing voters. No-one's arguing about that. They're just losing the ones they cant rely on anyway

I dont think its a 'real issue'. They could go right down in the polls and still win in an election. Politics has a dodgy reputation for a reason so you need to have your own actual thoughts on it.

I really dont think you are connecting the dots. Yes, some people voting for SF dont know what the party stands for and are now realising SF arent xenophobes, so these voters are moving on. I'd say the ones in your p[oll and one the ones who've stopped voting for SF are one and the same

Galwayguy35

Great spokesman for the shinners on VM1 now.

Gould is comedy gold, haven't laughed so much in years.

maccored

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121764114#Comment_121764114

To be fair now, I don't give a monkeys. You cant forever be afraid of change. Hate the current government but dont want to do anything different. A bit of the oul Stockholm syndrome there?

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121764710#Comment_121764710

It was like they lifted some 'lad' off the street, put a suit on them, and asked them some policy questions.

This is the level of talent SF have at their disposal, and Gould would be considered one of their better TD's!

TokTik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121764729#Comment_121764729

Where have I ever said I’m in favour of the current clown show?? I’d love a proper centre right party in Ireland. A vote for Sinn Fein is a vote for more of the exact same left leaning wishy-washy, soft on crime, social justice, money for everyone but the workers, nod and a wink politics nonsense we already have, with the added “bonus” of chasing the rich and MNCs out of Ireland. Depending on the runners in my constituency I’ll be voting for independents.

Jinglejangle69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121764684#Comment_121764684

Wow that’s some mental gymnastics.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121764684#Comment_121764684

I think you will find its yourself there that isnt connecting the dots.

Polls have a margin of error, but overall they are a very good indicator of peoples voting preferences.

The polls have surveyed SF voters and those voters consistently come out with the strongest anti immigration stance, vs any of the other major parties.

Its there in black and white.

Some folks who supported SF and have changed their mind because the party isnt anti immigration have possibly changed preference to the independents.

But the polls show that of the SF voters that remain, the vast majority of them are anti immigration.

The polls are measuring SF voters preferences, not the preferences of those that defected to independents. (that is covered seperatley)