The accelerating fall in Sinn Féin support

Bobeagleburger

Always look at trends. A one off poll is fairly meaningless.

SF have been trending downwards.

The Mathematician

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122221867#Comment_122221867

Yes, but it is all probability. There is a much higher chance of the error being within 1% than being between 2% and 3%. There is also a small probability of the error being more than 3%.

However all this is under the assumption that the sample is random, and to my mind, this is the real problem with polls. Polling companies try to account for this, but it is not easy.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122221531#Comment_122221531

What it does to competitiveness in the economy, the damage to young people etc far out weighs the small gain you mention.

House prices that reflect economic fundamentals and long term economic stability is always a good thing.

downtheroad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122221527#Comment_122221527

Kwasi Kwarteng and Liz Truss could be advising her behind the scenes

Milominderbender

People forget that Sinn Fein lost half their councilors in the 2019 local elections. Does anyone remember the then Justice Minister Charlie Flanagan's attempt at having an RIC/ Black and Tan commemoration in January 2020 ?

An outraged public voted Sinn Fein in their droves. TD's who were expected to lose their seats ended up topping the poll. No hoper candidates in no hoper constituencies ended up being voted in. One lady was even away on holidays when she won her seat. The Wolfe Tones "come out ye Black and tans" were number 1 in the charts.

It is bizarre how the whole thing has been memory holed.

Anyway I predict they will gain seats as they are starting from such a low base.

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122221547#Comment_122221547

A 10% fall caused by a substantial increase in supply / reduction in demand, would not cause any negative equity.

Sweet.Science

I cannot believe how bad MLMD was on tv. Its like she is going out of her way to be awful at her job.

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122221531#Comment_122221531

Indeed.

If we are actually serious about stopping house price inflation, and making houses affordable, we need a cross-party and a cross-society consensus that house prices are too high now.

As you point out, many people will not agree to that.

I personally own a house, which has increased by 20-25% in five years. I want the young people of Ireland to be able to buy a house. If my wealth on paper must fall to help everybody else, so be it. My paper wealth is not as important as helping the hundreds of thousands of people in the housing crisis.

We need a politician, all politicians hopefully, to stand up and admit that house prices are too high.

(I don't think they will, for the reasons listed above)

Or if price falls can't be achieved, maybe 20-30 years of flat nominal prices would allow the real price to slowly fall over time.

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122221547#Comment_122221547

Are you implying that we as a society should simply accept that house prices will stay very high, forever?

And that people should not expect to be able to buy, ever?

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122223214#Comment_122223214

I think as a society, we should consider under what conditions house prices would have to fall to an average of 300k in Dublin, and as a society/electorate, whether we should have any confidence in a party leader whose aim would be to cause such conditions.

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122223283#Comment_122223283

A significant increase in supply?

Water John

House price in step with inflation is probably the sweet spot. Thus the asset is holding its value but is not something that can be left sit idle and increase in value.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122223214#Comment_122223214

High house prices are toxic for an economy.

I suspect Dav has never hired a person in his life, never started a business.

Do people forget the crash in 07,08.

At the core, house prices and income/affordability must have a reasonable relationship, that's a global truth and applies in every country and doesn't matter who is in power.

Danzy

The concrete carbon levy.

Look at the price of concrete now.

It's a real onerous problem for other businesses, not just housing.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122221678#Comment_122221678

Jesus wept.

Basic budgeting, basic financial education, these things have slipped over the last 20 years.

emo72

If people are paying back large mortgages it leaves less money to spend in the economy. Business will suffer. There is absolutely no justification for high prices. If 2 workers can't afford to buy a house then social order is under threat. They are forced to rent at onerous prices. When they reach 65 and are then on pensions how the **** are they able to pay that 2500 per month? FUBAR is the correct technical term to describe our housing situation.

Frank Bullitt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122223160#Comment_122223160

How so? You can't just dump something like that in here and not back it up. If you say it is your opinion then so be it, but if you firmly believe that is the case, gonna need to see some evidence to back that up.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122223313#Comment_122223313

If prices were dropping that much due (average 300k) to supply, supply would be choked off long before house prices plummeted to that level and banks would have stopped lending to both developers and buyers. Developers will not build if profits fall catastrophicically.

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122223825#Comment_122223825

It's so obvious, I didn't think it needs explanation.

The max mortgage is 90% LTV, so a 10% house price fall does not cause any negative equity.

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122223885#Comment_122223885

Yes, a fair point.

It would only work if costs also fall, that's what I want. Large falls to the costs of sites and finance, allowing more supply at lower prices.

Frank Bullitt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122223909#Comment_122223909

Oh dear. You are aware that people need down payments and so on for houses, right? People who have purchased a house, you'd be ok with telling them that the property they just got, is going to reduce in value by 10% after they've landed in debt?

And I am sure you know, as it is also so obvious, that house prices are directly related to the economy, so if house values drop, so would the economy.

I really don't think you have a clue what you are even trying to say here.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122223939#Comment_122223939

God Lord, did you just hear her on The Last Word? She was all flustered, didn’t at all speak with confidence or authority. It was a car crash.

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122223924#Comment_122223924

Please make your suggestion on how we make houses more affordable.

I am suggesting that policies that lead towards stopping house prices rises is a good thing.

I am suggesting that mild deflation in house prices is a good thing.

I accept your scenario above, which is not negative equity, but I see your point.

My point is this - if the vast majority of pol parties and people believe that society needs more affordable housing, then that implies that we need to see a stop to house price inflation.

Is my logic correct?

More affordable housing means a slowdown in houe price growth (preferably to zero IMHO).

Unless we go down the SF route of having separate markets: (1) houses and (2) affordable houses, subsidised by the State.

The SF plan means that a small subset of buyers qualify to buy an affordable house, at 300k in Dublin, subsidised by the State?

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122223924#Comment_122223924

Let's say we hire the 35,000 construction staff on the Live Register.

Lets' say we boost the supply of sites, and we speed up utility connections.

Let's say we massively encourage people to train as apprentices.

Let's say we divert more inputs towards house construction, and away from office construction.

All of this means a busier, growing economy.

Let's say that some of the extra houses being built are by developers, for-profit, but that many are built by contractors (no developers) by the 31 LA.

Let's say we reach 50,000 new units pa.

As a result, new house prices stop rising, and maybe even fall a bit.

Note: flat house price growth is compatible with a busy economy, if supply increases enough.

We don't need a recession to stop house prices growing: we need more supply.

Frank Bullitt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122224936#Comment_122224936

I thought this was an SF thread? Why do I have to make any suggestion to make houses more affordable. But sure, maybe just build more of them? That might be a start.

We have had plenty of local politicians (including SF ones) protest the construction of houses in certain areas, that has to stop.

I think your logic is flawed in that you are applying a binary outcome to a non-binary problem. Housing, to use the blanket term, is a form of investment for people, to leave for their families or to make money. You would like to see zero growth in housing, that would be very narrow minded for a start, and it would also dry up any sort of investment of any kinda. I really hope you know that much.

The SF plan is as hollow as a box, they have said lots, but have done or said nothing to show how they would fund any of this. And it is not just funding, getting the permission alone will take effort, effort that SF have yet to define.

They are all talk (like most politicians), but with SF, there is literally just talk to go off.

Frank Bullitt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122224952#Comment_122224952

You are in a totally different world mate.

Are you just going to magically find 35,000 people on the live register to work in construction? Will you stop some of them from moving away as well, take their passports maybe?

How will you boost the supply of sites?

How will you encourage people to train as apprentices? Will they want to even do that work? For what money? How will it be funded?

How will you "divert" inputs (do you mean money here?) What about private investors who want return on their money? Will you, or the state, just tell them to invest in houses? Will they still want a return?

All of this means NOTHING without the means to actually do it, literally nothing. None of this is workable, none.

Why do people do anything? To make money, so you want contractors, to build houses, but not for profit…what kind of product do you think will ever come from that?

Yes, we need more supply. Your suggestions are like something from a Harry Potter book though, none of it is workable in a functioning market, absolutely none.

You are quite literally, writing fiction with this.

Geuze

We'll get nowhere with your defeatist attitude.

You imply that we are stuck with sky high house prices forever.

There are 35,000 construction workers on the Live Register. I suggest strongly encouraging them to return to work.

There are decisons that can be made at LA and central Govt level to increase the supply of sites, including the RZSLT, and the LDA. These policies are happening, I am saying we need to do more.

Here is a specific example: double the RZSLT.

In Galway city, there are loads of idle sites.

Labour supply: given it's a serious crisis, I suggest radical measures, for example: much less income tax for ten years for new building workers, including apprentices.

Given the the market either can't or won't build more houses, it seems that the State must intervene more. Typically I would be against that, but I can see no alternative. In this respect, I agree with SF's Eoin O'Broin, even though I am not a SF supporter.

That means the State financing the construction of more houses than it does now, to be built by contractors, who of course will earn profits. The LA or the LDA would be the developer.

We clearly need new supply to rise from 33k to 50-55k. Can the market provide that? It seems not, unfortunately?

We need more supply, but without the normal higher prices that typically induce higher supply. So we need lower costs of sites and finance.

REDBULL68

I supported Sinn Fein back in the 80s ,when it was worth it ,not any more ,if you want a good veggie recipe, vote for them.

run_Forrest_run

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122221944#Comment_122221944

BTW I never said they were gains…just pointing out how some sectors of society/economy are quite happy to see prices rising. It stinks I know but that's greed/capitalism for you and it's alive and well in Ireland.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122225487#Comment_122225487

You like it when the value of your savings/investments/assets fall?