The accelerating fall in Sinn Féin support

Francie Barrett

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122585063#Comment_122585063

The leasehold system is a hold over from feudal times and both the Tories and Labour want to abolish it completely, indeed the Tories have already ended the practice for new build properties.

Why anyone want to bring back an anachronistic practice that belonged in medieval times is beyond me, but these are the times we live in and Sinn are the people who are proposing it. Hopefully people will see some sense and reject these far-left, nut-jobs.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122584052#Comment_122584052

The FHS is not like the SF scheme at all. The SF scheme cannot allow a property price rise, outside of inflation.

The FHS allows the property to grow with the market. If the amount of equity you need to pay back grows, so does the value of your home.

You are going to see a much larger profit on the private market than you would with a SF house; not withstanding the fact that the same house in the same area of Dubin have vastly different starting prices.

The house on the private market & with the bigger starting price is allowed to become more expensive, because it grows with the market and can be sold to anyone.

The cheaper SF house is capped and cannot grow in value at all, outside of inflation. And when you want to sell it, not only are you selling if for a low price compared to the private house across the street, the pool of buyers you have is restricted, so it could take longer to sell.

The cost to the tax payer of hiring a whole new public construction service to deliver SF houses is an increase in govt funding, not a decrease!

Not to mention that those paying the income tax, folks on average incomes or above, wouldn't qualify for the SF homes they are funding anyway, because they earn too much!

The irony.

deezell

The Elephant in the room is that SF see no irony in pursuing this super socialist housing ideology with eye watering cost of €38B to the state, using funds generated by our successful Capitalism and business model. I stopped reading at 'publicly owned building department'. We have one, the OPW, they spent the construction cost of two small houses on a bike shelter.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122582398#Comment_122582398

We judge people by what they do, rather than what they say. Over a period of time.

And FG in particular have had three terms to sort matters and put their stamp on policies.

And we see the results of their policy stamp. Time is up. It's that simple. Maybe in 10-15 years time, they'll get another go.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122585146#Comment_122585146

…land is currently being used to simply extract wealth by what is termed rent seeking measures, such an approach is none productive, it doesnt actually add value to an economy, and only truly benefits rent seekers, which is generally more wealthier entities of society, and by doing so, simply indebts none owners of land. its highly destructive for critical social needs such as social mobility, the ability for people to move from lower economic status to a higher status. all in all, this just accelerates wealth inequality, whereby we end up with most assets being owned by smaller and smaller group sets in our societies, leaving everyone else heavily indebted to these wealthier entities, and needing to effectively rent from these land/asset owners….

…i wouldnt be overly worrying about though, this dynamic is not set to change anytime soon, certainly not under ffg lead governments, which are set to remain in government, and probably for a very long time…

…..we just have to accept your kids, grandkids, nieces and nephews are just screwed, particularly in relation to their current and future property needs…..

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122585749#Comment_122585749

FG are leading the first preference polls.

They are ahead of SF.

It is more likley we will see a FFG govt than a SF one.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122585878#Comment_122585878

SF creating a two-tiered housing system would widen the gap between private buyers and non-private buyers.

The private buyers would see their property rise faster and their wealth expand, while the purchasers of the SF homes would see no price growth above basic inflation.

The scheme would make it all but impossible for an owner of a SF home to upscale to the private market in later life.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122586001#Comment_122586001

yup, sf have stuffed it, and ffg are playing a stormer, their agreement blocking technique will continue to work well into the 30's, tis all good…..

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122586030#Comment_122586030

Yes, its the most likley outcome. I have been saying for the past 12 months we will see an FFG govt returned, but its more likley than ever now.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122586025#Comment_122586025

…and ffg's primarily financialised approach is working by……

…continually implementing policies that are well known to simply push up the price of property and land, i.e. a demand side approach, wont solve this problem, we all know, its a supply side problem, pushing more money into the sector, first time buyers etc, has been done in other countries, and surprise surprise, the result was exactly the same as ireland, i.e. higher prices, this wont solve the problem, its just exasperating it!

sf certainly also dont know what to do about this, but really, have ffg the answers!

…again, dont worry, theres not going to be a sf government, and for a very long time either, its gonna be ffg all the way…..

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122586048#Comment_122586048

The FTB scheme may have a slighly inflationary effect on prices, but if it helps young couples get on the ladder because they don't have a deposit (and it does help them), then so be it.

Better a 400k house a couple can afford with deposit from the govt than a 350k house they can't afford because they will NEVER raise the 35k deposit themselves.

SF would abolish that suppprt and those couples wouldn't get on the ladder at all.

BTW, they won't qualify for a SF home either, because they earn an average salary each, which takes them over the 90k earning limit.

It comes down to a numbers game. Who will build the most homes, of all types, over the next 5 years.

FFG win that race at a canter and have record commencements already this year.

Anyone earning an average salary or above that wants to be a home owner would be much better off under the FFG housing policy. Its that simple.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122586084#Comment_122586084

go again there butty, theres clear evidence both here and in other countries than when governments implement demand side policies towards housing, i.e. push more money into the sector, by whatever means, including and in particular first time buyers etc, that the money is simply used to inflate the price of property, and doesnt actually stimulate the supply side of the equation, i.e. it doesnt actually increase the supply of property.

this approach has clearly been the approach of both ffg, and for many decades now, this approach is also termed financialisation, which ultimately only truly benefits older, asset owning, including pre-existing property and land owners, which is clearly the main voting base of both ffg.

ffg also have a refusal to implement potential capping policies of price inflation such as appropriate land value taxes, dereliction taxes, land and property hoarding taxes, all of which would help suppress inflation, but in saying that, none of the main parties want to go anywhere near potentially one of the better policies of increasing property taxes, to try cap inflation

this dynamic is set to continue for many more years, due to the fact, its not truly possible for an alternative government to be formed, due to the fact, ffg are simply blocking that possibility, as that was the intention of confidence and supply….

again, dont worry, nothings gonna change, if you own assets such as property and land, you re laughing, your kids, grandkids, nieces and nephews may not be though, but shur thats their problem!

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122586134#Comment_122586134

again, dont worry, nothings gonna change, if you own assets such as property and land, you re laughing, your kids, grandkids, nieces and nephews may not be though, but shur thats their problem!

Exactly why there is so much opposition to SF's idea. It's extremely shortsighted.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122586204#Comment_122586204

…but so to is ffg's, its a mess, so we re just gonna screw your kids, and rock on…..

…im sure it ll just be fine, thankfully some of those younger generations havent moved to more extreme views and extreme groups!

…everything is just fine!

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122586297#Comment_122586297

I mean the opposition to SF's plans is shortsighted, not the actual plan!!

Totally agree that FFG's approach is shortighted!

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122586309#Comment_122586309

but the reality is, sf have stuffed it, they have completely lost the momentum they had only a few months ago, they made a mess of the referendum and their stance on immigration, so theyre toast, and ffg's experience in governance has truly showed during this time, so it ll be another ffg, and potentially for a long time to come

an alternative government would need to gain an extremely high support, a near majority, in order to make it impossible for another ffg lead government, thats clearly not gonna happen, and theres a good chance it wont happen for a very long either, so…..

…i.e. younger generations are screwed, which means we ll all be eventually, especially when upward mobility becomes virtually impossible, which has already begun!

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122586134#Comment_122586134

Help to Buy is for first time buyers only. It does not benefit older, wealthier people, whom already own property.

There are over 50k first time buyers that have benefitted from the scheme.

How many of those mostly younger, all first time buyers, would have managed to purchase without the scheme?

If they didn't buy the houses, they wouldnt dramatically fall in price. They would be snapped up by wealthier landlords/investment funds etc and we would have more twenty and thirty somethings living with the parents.

You say you want help from the govt to support first time buyers and then complain when they get it.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122586359#Comment_122586359

The best way to help younger buyers, aside from giving them govt paid deposits (which SF are getting rid of) is to build more homes.

I dont see how SF will build more homes than FFG over the next 5 years.

If its a flat out race between building the most homes, FFG won't build as many as we ideally need, but they will build more than SF.

So if we want more homes, I dont see a better option on the table than FFG, who currently have record commencements and will be pushing 50k new homes next year.

Thats a good platform to build on.

I dont see any way SF will hit 50k in 2025, when they wont have time to hire public construction staff in the numbers needed, not to mention the changes in planning and resourcing that would be required.

Galwayguy35

I don't believe SF really want to be in Government.

The same problems with Health, Housing and Immigration will still be there after the election and even more unpopular decisions will have to be made.

Easier to sit it out on the opposition benches and draw down the easy money.

standardg60

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122586698#Comment_122586698

You're not wrong, there are plenty on the opposition benches who are happy to make a career out of sniping that would be horrified to find themselves in Government realising that it's a thankless task.

Just ask Stephen Donnelly.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122585027#Comment_122585027

There is no need to go any further than your first sentence.

"Yes it is a drawback from an individual's point of view, but it is the only drawback."

Individuals vote and individuals buy houses. If something is a drawback, they won't vote for it or use it.

Secondly, those who cannot afford to buy outside the scheme are already advantaged by a superior scheme for an individual - the FHS Scheme. Why would anyone vote for something that is less advantegeous to them than the current scheme?

The SF Scheme will be exposed by this and won't boost their vote. I suspect that SF will end up promising to keep the FHS alongside their weird new scheme.

deezell

The last thing we need is state run commercial services, especially house building. Make it easier for the private developers to get shovels into the ground, planning needs a massive overhaul for simple house builds. Building 50 houses is just building one on repeat. Why does it take years and 100s of €k before a builder can lay a brick. Too many state agencies, enabling nimbys and random objectors. A builder I know with full pp reapplied to change about 6 of the houses from type A to B, 4 to 3 beds or something. Nothing had actually been built. You'd swear he'd applied to build a nuclear power station, with all the objectors, and paperwork, and demands for new impact reports, from the public, lefty politicians, and obscure 'agencies'.

Gloomtastic!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122587982#Comment_122587982

Well said. The lunatics have definitely taken over the asylum.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058325358/building-ireland-s-most-eco-friendly-house

Keep an eye on this thread. 😉

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122586001#Comment_122586001

Respectfully I disagree. Like FF's long tenure, the narrative of the next election for FG - will be too long in the job. The Greens are gassed and will be tossed aside for another couple of terms. That leaves the obvious FF / SF coalition.

deezell

If SF drop the protest seats they were given last time, Ff/FG won't need the greens. Who wants the unknown of SF? I feel a song coming on;

🎶 Who wants, to get a Sinn Fein Home?

I Don't

One that, you'll never bleedin' own?

I Don't! 🎶

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122589165#Comment_122589165

If MM is still leader of FF come election time, I just dont see the party siding with SF over FG. Why would they.

They have run a stable govt for this past term, much safer to stick with what they know and i also think SF having digs at FF over the last term is another reason FF wont choose to cosy up with them.

Nope, the safe bet for FF is to stick with what they know, and thats FFG.

Greens will be gone but there will be independents or a small party to make up the numbers. Doesnt really matter who.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122587908#Comment_122587908

I suspect you're right that this is not an election winning policy.

A self centred and short sighted electorate will inevitably produce self centred and short sighted governments with self centred and short sighted policies.

But whilst it may not be a vote winner, as a policy for long term improvement in the housing problems that we have for all it is undoubtedly superior to the FHS.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122592726#Comment_122592726

Disagree with that.

The SF scheme blocks buyers from owning homes at market rate and also restricts the pool of people "owners" can sell to.

FHS has none of those restrictions.

A home bought under the FHS is equal to any other private home.

The SF homes are not and are effectivley a 2nd class asset.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122592756#Comment_122592756

Yes, but you're viewing it from the perspective of an individual buyer.

I'm not claiming the SF scheme is superior from the point of view of an individual buyer who wants the taxpayer to subsidise their house purchase.

I am claiming it is superior from the taxpayer's point of view.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122592778#Comment_122592778

Disagree there also.

With the SF house, the tax payer is footing the bill to build the house, pay for the labour, purchase the materials and so on.

They also dont qualify to own ones of the homes at the end of it all, if they earn an average salary or above.

Not sure how any of that can be considered a good deal for the tax payer, when its the tax payer that is excluded from the scheme!

Most homes built under FFG and the FHS are delivered by private companies. Everyone is entitled to access them and the govt isnt footing the bill to deliver the majority of homes.