Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Spring/Summer 2024

squarecircles

Unusual to see temperatures rising as we go into the late evening, early night on thd met Éireann computer model, rising to 22 degrees as it approaches 8pm, and still 19 degrees at midnight, while only 18 degrees earlier at 3 pm, then the graphics show heavy rain /thunder from midnight onwards

Robwindstorm

Uk met office giving ulster the best chance of significant storms, most of the south and east escaping while the west gets a spell of heavy rain. It's a bit more in line with MT'S forecast of a couple of days ago. Let's see how this unfolds.

pad199207

overnight arome bringing the east back into play

squarecircles

As usual the forecast detail has been wrong from met Éireann and the amateurs, north Midlands and ulster now, so I'm done, nó interest now.

The Macho Man

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122489784#Comment_122489784

I really hope you're wrong and we get some action but unfortunately you could be right. But I'll stay hopeful ☺️

Ros4Sam24

Could be in the firing line in North Ros, we could really do without the rain here

Darwin

I like to look at the High-res Ensemble Prediction System on met.ie which is usually pretty accurate within 24 hours. I'm not sure if this will get updated again later today, for now further East and South missing most of the action:

Meteorite58

Watching through the models still some variance of where will get the most activity.

I think ECM / AROME /HARMONIE is a good mix. So IMO could see thunderstorms come ashore in the S, SW, W, SE from early evening moving up the country on a path towards the NE. I think every county cannot be ruled out of having a chance of a thunderstorm and a severe storm could happen anywhere. More than likely there will be an increase in intensity as the weather moves up through the midlands and into the NE in the early hours of Monday morning and could see it cleared the coasts in the NE by around 08.00. Anywhere could get intense rainfall accompanied by hail, more so in the midlands and NE early morning.

It will be interesting to gauge the level of activity in the early evening to see how unstable the atmosphere is.

JVince

Listening to radio news and online newspapers, you'd swear a major weather event is about to happen with the catastrophising of a basic level yellow warning.

They are also saying it's for the entire country. But it's not.

Why do the media have to sensationalise what is effectively an advisory of heavy overnight rain and possibly a few thunderstorms - nothing unusual at all, but handy to know if you have dogs or other animals that fear thunder or leaving things outside that should not get wet.

But this "headline news" manner of the media is like calling wolf when it's simply not warranted.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122490218#Comment_122490218

…sex sells….

squarecircles

So after all the potential, and expectation,this is it, a band of (possibley) thundery rain.wow.

southeast counties removed.

Status Yellow - Rain warning for Cavan, Donegal, Monaghan, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick, Tipperary, Connacht, Longford, Louth, Meath, Offaly, Westmeath

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Update: A band of heavy rain will move eastwards Sunday night and early Monday, with thundery downpours possible.

Oscar Bravo

As Meteorite said anywhere could see a storm

nacho libre

I always had the feeling this would be thundery rain rather than thunderstorms in the west,but we shall see. Speaking of thunderstorms, we had a brilliant one a few years back around about this time. I had never experienced rain or wind like it before. It will be a long time before we experience a storm like that one again!

.Donegal.

Yellow - Thunderstorm Warning for Antrim, Armagh, Down, Fermanagh, Tyrone, Derry

A narrow band of heavy rain and thunderstorms is expected during the early hours of Monday, before pushing quickly east, clearing around 0700. Whilst not all areas will be affected, where storms do occur frequent lightning, gusty winds and possibly some large hail will be additional hazards. As the heavy rain moves through, 20-40 mm could fall in an hour or so, with a few places perhaps seeing 60 mm by the time rain clears.

pad199207

Arome is very interesting for the majority of the country and usually Arome does best in these situations.

This will probably be the time that’s it’s wrong 😆

squarecircles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122490429#Comment_122490429

Its thundery rain because met eireann dont have the expertise to forecast thunderstorm activity, hence the constant changing of ambigous flowery language regarding thunder, hop across the border and the met office have the confidence to say thunderstorm.

Comhrá

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122490451#Comment_122490451

Well as usual, widely forecast thunderstorms will most likely produce another significant bust. Long experience has taught me not to get excited about predicted thunderstorms until I actually see the flashes and hear the thunder.

DOCARCH

Quite a few storms in the Bay of Biscay which look to be moving north.

Kermit.de.frog

Storms gathering off the south coast. Maybe reaching the Cork, Wexford coast within the next 2 hours or so. Be interesting to see how this all develops overnight.

https://www.sat24.com/en-gb

igCorcaigh

Getting closer.

pad199207

Status Orange - Rain warning for Donegal, Leitrim, Sligo

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Very heavy and thundery rain for a time tonight.

Impacts:

• Localised flooding
• Very difficult travelling conditions

Valid: 00:00 Monday 12/08/2024 to 04:00 Monday

12/08/2024

Issued: 15:34 Sunday 11/08/2024

aidanodr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122490892#Comment_122490892

Seems de lightning has started in west Cork off Cape Clear

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1822650825396605139

CirrusBusiness

Is it tracking more to the east on radar? Looks like it's going to push up the midlands so wouldn't rule out the possibility of anywhere getting storms just yet, SE included. Interesting evening ahead perhaps. Surprised to see the SE removed from the warning.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122491011#Comment_122491011

Yes those are moving North East ,worth watching ?

If I were to guess,I'd say into Waterford and wexford but could be high based showers meaning little rainfall ,hard to know untill we get reports from the ground,conditions seem ripe for showers to break out east of the front which is what those are and would be consistent with what arome was showing earlier if you saw that ?

Scrabbel

Most of you already use this I'm sure but for those who don't have it yet, I find this to be the best real time lightning tracker. Have a look at an area of the world where there's a heavy storm.

https://map.blitzortung.org/#7.47/51.475/-8.359

Saz_ie

Two long rumbles heard in Shannon - wind is picking up and gone very muggy

xhomelezz

South Tipp, rain is coming..

JanuarySnowstor

Storms come and go in particular cells. They die off, rejuvenate and are just impossible to predict, even when 5 kms away!! Some will see storms and most won't is probably the best guess!

Dan Steely

No Netweather convective forecast up yet.

Oscar Bravo

Shannon Airport reporting a thunderstorm at 5.30pm . 23 degrees!