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Nuclear Energy for Ireland?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,712 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    There is a debate to be had about whether the problem of nuclear waste is better or worse than chucking even more CO2 into the sky.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Got any figures for human deaths ascribed to nuclear waste? I'll start the ball rolling by asserting that AFAIK, it's zero.

    compared to:

    https://www.monash.edu/medicine/news/latest/2021-articles/worlds-largest-study-of-global-climate-related-mortality-links-5-million-deaths-a-year-to-abnormal-temperatures



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,064 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Don`t worry yourself over EDF going bust. They made a profit of €10 Billion last year and according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) Real Time Tracker electricity in France is €34.81 compared to €108.85 here. €81.10 for Germany, Italy €92.82, and Denmark with all their renewables € 56.08. Probably just sheer coincidence but for Sweden, which generates 30% of it electricity using nuclear it`s €35.47 and for Finland, with 41% generation from nuclear, it`s €43.64.

    Probably sheer coincidence as well that France, which generates 70% of it`s electricity from nuclear, along with having the cheapest electricity in the E.U. also has, by a very wide margin, the lowest emissions



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,902 ✭✭✭Shoog




  • Registered Users Posts: 15,064 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    What`s to explain ?

    The figures speak for themselves.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,207 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Finland has direct interconnectors to Norway, Sweden, Estonia and Russia and indirectly

    Their AC interconnectors are grid synced. Our DC interconnectors ramp up slowly. We'd need way more backup than they do.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,902 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Your insistence on repeating the same information over and over again is tedious.



  • Registered Users Posts: 870 ✭✭✭Busman Paddy Lasty


    Spot on Captain. I meant multiples but didn't write it properly.

    Over and over I stress the comparisons of Iteland with France and Finland are terrible because we are an island without those synchronised connections they have.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,207 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    The UK's Rough Gas Storage facility can store up to 41 TWh of natural gas. The Netherlands have 142 TWh and France 134TWh.

    Gas storage on the TWh scale already exists and is up and running. We can use natural gas until 2050. Hydrogen doesn't have to be stored as hydrogen itself, there are plenty of hydrogen rich carriers like ammonia.

    Pumped storage is expensive. It would be nice if the Silvermines goes ahead but we've added as much battery capacity while waiting for it and the newer Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries last much, much longer than lithium ion which decreases cost per cycle by at least an order of magnitude.

    But planning permission means there'd be few sites on land you can use. Pumped storage makes sense with nuclear as the predictable every day/night cycle which means high usage but with renewables you have a much lower usage. Pumped storage has the advantage that is it synchronous.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,064 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    So it`s the information you have a problem with, rather than it being incorrect.

    Nothing I or anyone else can do for you on that I`m afraid.

    What I find tedious is that you acknowledge you are aware of the facts, yet contunue to post as if you are not.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,207 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    "So OL3 has a teething problem."

    There's FOUR finished EPR reactors out there and another two mostly done. This particular one was supposed to be fully working, utterly reliably 14 years ago.

    There's two of these reactors working in China. Taishan 1 was powering the grid SIX years ago, and No 2 the following year. One of those was offline for a year so you might imagine there was plenty of opportunity to learn lessons.

    The EPR's have had multiple problems with pumps, fuel rods, cracks in pressure domes, stuff that's absolutely essential to get right first time. Hinkley C has had multiple price jumps of ~£3Bn because it's still being re-designed on the fly. £3Bn was the original price quoted per reactor.

    The EPR isn't even a brand new design as an incremental improvement of the French N4 with safety systems from the German KONVOI. Chooz which started construction in 1984 uses the N4. 40 years later and it's a "teething problem" ??

    Nuclear means delays and cost overruns are the norm. Which leaves reliability as the only card it can play. And it fails there too.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,712 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    Certainly in the past I've read stuff about the difference in deaths from lung diseases between France and Germany, the latter now burning a shed-load of extra lignite due to closing its reactors early.

    But nuclear has baggage that has not been properly addressed. Have any permanent waste repositories actually been comissioned anywhere worldwide? Yucca Mountain was canned just as it was supposed to go live..



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,712 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    Most of the Hinkley Point C overrun is down to the UK being uttterly sh!t at cost control on major projects. I agree nuclear has massive cost overruns but show me any power generation project that has not..



  • Registered Users Posts: 707 ✭✭✭moon2


    "but nuclear has cost overruns" is a pretty weak argument in and of itself. If you looked at many major construction project across many industries, cost overruns are common.

    It's a bit silly for me to ask if the expected cost overrun of nuclear is greater or less than the expected cost overrun of the proposed hydro build out. It's the nature of the beast when projects are put out to tender and the "most economical" wins the tender. Everyone is incentivised to undershoot their bid and describe the most optimistic scenario.

    The children's hospital is overbudget, the national broadband plan is overbudget. If we ever get the information, I'd bet the 9(?) new gas plants we're supposed to be building by the end of 2024 will be late and over budget too.

    Back to my earlier point: of course a nuclear station will be over budget, but I also bet the all in cost per MW generated will be less with nuclear than any other option.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    We had multiple gas turbines fail unexpectedly only a few years ago and they were down and out for a long time; you have a short memory, so yes, a teething problem that doesn't alter the fact that nuclear is very reliable and a lot cheaper than wind or solar, while being massively more reliable than either of them with their paltry capacity factors which stems from their inherent unreliablity. The cost of renewables does not include the storage necessary to achieve net zero, which is uncostable because it's so expensive no country has any that can supply a grid for days or weeks, so there are no examples from which costs can be estimated.

    There are no commissioned nuclear waste repository schemes yet, because nuclear waste is such a serious problem no one has needed to do anything about it for the last century. It's a theoretical bogey man used to scare unthinking people into fearing and rejecting nuclear energy. Something Gazprom has had huge success with in Europe via the likes of the German green movement and that traitor, Gerhard Schroder. the Germans are weird, they know he's dirty, they know they were conned and manipulated by the Orcs, and yet they still went and decommissioned their perfectly good nuclear reactors, based on information and analysies from their own civil service that have turned out to be deliberately false.

    I don't quite understand the thinking on existing nuclear waste repository schemes. They seem focused on ensuring access as if there is an expectation the waste will need to be retrieved, which is weird. They are ludicrously expensive as they are basically mines you can drive big trucks down into.

    I think I have come up with a better and cheaper solution. Disolve out caverns in salt layers that are kilometres beneath the surface, as is frequently done for storing large quantities of gases. These salt layers are stable for hundreds of millions of years, let alone the couple hundred thousand years you would need for plutonium. Process the nuclear waste using the synroc technology that incorporates the waste in a synthetic form of granite, into long rods similar to drilled rock cores. The nucleotides can't be leached out of this material, even in the presence of water, but there is no water in salt layers anyway. This material, like granite, is likely stable for at least a couple million years, well beyond what is necessary for even plutonium. This technology is proven and in use in Australia for all nuclear medical waste, at the Argone National Laboratory in the US and at Windscale in the UK. It can be used for all classes of nuclear material, not just wastes, including weapons grade plutonium.

    Lower the synroc rods down the borehole into the salt cavern and when full, plug the top 100m of the bore with concrete, and that's it. Safe disposal of nuclear waste for at least 10 times the necessary period with absolutely no chance of human access or interaction let alone vague worries about terrorists and misuse.

    Neither technology is theoretical, both have and are used and the safety would be absolute for well beyond the required length of time, and it would be relatively cheap.

    Post edited by cnocbui on


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    OL3 is touted by some here as an example of a nuclear fail, as it was 3 times over budget, but even with it's it's huge cost overrun, it's still at least a quarter the cost of trying to get a simmilar amount of generated energy using solar panels, which are falsely claimed to be a cheap source of power.

    The Koreans have in the past few years completed six APR-1400 reactors, that have all cost far less than OL3 per GW and take about 8 years to build.

    One of the main reasons for so many recent cost overruns is that like the NCH, they are bespoke builds with unforseen problems cropping up and needing to be solved. This is not a problem when a proven design is used that has been used multiple times recently, so the skill set is still extant and fresh. France did no get to having so much nuclear capacity by building a lot of bespoke projects, they achieved cost and time economies of scale by building one design, many times over in a relatively short time frame, so that they got very good at it, the very same core concept behind the Small Modular Reactor idea, except that has the additional cost reduction of indoor, repeatable factory construction at volume.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,064 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Swedish nuclear management company SKB has completed construction of such a repository as far as I know in Finland and are waiting for a licence to operate the facility. They are also constructing a similar facility in Sweden.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,630 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Sellafield is a nuclear waste facility, where nuclear waste is left to rot as it is too dangerous for a human to go near the tanks where the waste is stored. They cannot even move it to anywhere else.

    Chernobyl is another place where nuclear waste is left to rot. And because it is so dangerous, a huge fortune has been spent building a sarcophagus around it. It is extremely dangerous for humans to go near it.

    so where in Ireland should we designate as a home for nuclear waste?



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    https://www.independent.ie/news/undersea-salt-caverns-could-be-used-to-store-hydrogen-gas-in-bid-to-end-fossil-fuel-use/41347162.html

    There you go, solved. I think Chernobyl being touted as a nuclear waste problem is far fetched. Ironically it's now one of the best nature preserves in Europe. Wouldn't it be ironic if the studies into genetic mutations in the Chernobyl exclusion zone did lead to a cure for cancer?

    As for Sellafield:

    Recent progress has resulted in the production of a highly durable
    waste form (synroc) that will enable the material to be stored in a passively
    safe state, either on the surface or in a repository environment.

    This work has been the result of a ten-year Nexia Solutions/ANSTO
    collaborative relationship, covering a variety of technical topic areas.

    This technology will be demonstrated in the UK at the Sellafield site
    within the Technology Centre, which becomes fully operational in summer
    2005.

    There was an error displaying this embed.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,495 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Nuclear waste is "left to rot" in Chernobyl for rather specific reasons that we wouldn't need to worry about.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,207 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    That doesn't explain the cost overruns and delays at Olkiluoto 3 or Flamanville 3 does it ?

    or at the Virgil C. Summer or the Vogtle plants ?

    It's an industry wide problem.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,207 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Solar is the cheapest peaking plant we have. Especially in summer. O&M costs are ridiculously low.

    The problem with your argument is that the EPR is based on the N4 which was a proven 1980's design. This isn't new technology, it's incremental engineering. You can't even play the "this time we'll get it right" card as essentially nothing has changed.

    And yes SMR's have the same problems

    https://ieefa.org/articles/small-modular-reactors-are-still-too-expensive-too-slow-and-too-risky

    Small modular reactors still look to be too expensive, too slow to build, and too risky to play a significant role in transitioning from fossil fuels in the coming 10-15 years.

    Investment in SMRs will take resources away from carbon-free and lower-cost renewable technologies that are available today and can push the transition from fossil fuels forward significantly in the coming 10 years.

    Experience with operating and proposed SMRs shows that the reactors will continue to cost far more and take much longer to build than promised by proponents.

    Regulators, utilities, investors and government officials should embrace the reality that renewables, not SMRs, are the near-term solution to the energy transition.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,630 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Is the disposal of nuclear waste costed into the cost of the NPP? Or would that make it completely uneconomic?



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    I believe it varies. There is very little waste in terms of volume, hence it being possible to just store locally for decades on end.

    I remember seeing something about the synroc process back in Australia - one of the scientists who developed it held up a chunk that looked to be the exact size and shape of a can of soup and remarked that it could hold all of the nuclear waste resulting from providing a person with electricity for their entire lifetime.

    Nuclear waste does not make nuclear energy uneconomic. France earns so much from exporting electricity it's enough to fund the construction of a new reactor ever three years. That money could be put to funding a waste repository.

    Nuclear is cheaper than renewables based on the amount of energy generated, so much so that the savings can easily pay for waste disposal when the need arises, but leaving it just sitting around for 80-100 years is cheaper and has worked well so far.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,630 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Quote: Nuclear is cheaper than renewables based on the amount of energy generated, so much so that the savings can easily pay for waste disposal when the need arises, but leaving it just sitting around for 80-100 years is cheaper and has worked well so far.

    Well, we are 70 years into that 80 - 100 years for some of that waste in Sellafield. Plus Sellafield also accepted waste from other countries like Japan, so a big problem not far off the Irish coast.

    So the answer you have regarding nuclear waste is we just have to wait and see.

    Of course, it is not the highly concentrated waste that is the big problem, it is the low level stuff that will eventually be released into the oceans as happens now, because the volume is huge and it cannot be stored for ever. Of course, it is all done quietly, with minimum fuss at dead of night.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,207 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    High grade waste is compact. But the Irish Sea was the most radioactive part of the global ocean. One is small, the other isn't far away.

    BTW In Oz one in three houses now have solar panels.

    France exports renewables. France does not export nuclear.

    Same image cropped at +/- 20GW.

    France is not build a new reactor every three years. They've started construction of ONE reactor in the last 30 years. And as it's four point four times it's original price it'd be more like one reactor every 13 years, that is if France actually exported nuclear power, which it doesn't. Oh and 13 years is how late it's likely to be.

    EDF are charging the UK a fortune to clean up EDF's plants , as the large parts of the plants themselves are also nuclear waste.

    The estimated cost of decommissioning has
    nearly doubled since 2004–05 and there remains a significant risk that
    the costs will rise further.
    The estimated cost of
    decommissioning the AGR stations, plus the PWR at Sizewell B, has
    increased from £12.6 billion in 2004–05 to £23.5 billion in 2020–21 in
    real terms.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,207 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    EDF paid £12.5 billion for the AGR stations it's now charging the UK government £23.5 billion to decommission.

    There's also hidden subsidies like providing spinning reserve and backup as Nuclear should be paying 80% of those costs because you need a lot more for a 1.6GW nuclear reactor than for the next largest generator which is typically a 0.33GW gas turbine.

    And then there's the great insurance deal, because the UK government only needs operators to have £1.2Bn insurance cover, anything more than that and it's the taxpayer.

    https://www.iisd.org/story/the-united-kingdom-is-to-subsidize-nuclear-power-but-at-what-cost/

    Nuclear has huge costs for a long time before you get any power and huge costs for a long time after you stop getting any power.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,630 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    I think the Nuclear industry was to supply material required for nuclear weapons. It was for that reason governments were to give open subsidies for NPP, and controlled them. No-one bothered about the cost of dismantling and decommissioning the closed NPPs. It will only be necessary a long time in the future, and who knows who will have to pay.

    Fossil fuels have led to global warming and climate change, and now we need to deal with the result of the last many decades with no concern for the result of such wanton pollution from fossil fuels on the planet, and the cost to the poorest regions on the planet. The richest regions might be OK, but the poorest regions certainly will not.

    If the world wants to return to pre industrial CO2 levels, then perhaps the world should return to living as they did in pre industrial times. The poorer regions would not need to change drastically, but wealthy regions would.

    So will nuclear waste be a future problem without a solution?



  • Registered Users Posts: 707 ✭✭✭moon2


    What do you mean France doesn't export nuclear?

    The numbers change fairly frequently, but there's about 14,000-15,000MW of non nuclear on the grid and export is around 12,000-13,000.

    Stating "France don't export nuclear" is pretty unusual based on how the grid works. They export nuclear all the time, and have done so for decades. Their net exports were much higher in the past than they are nowadays, and that's due to their nuclear generators.

    There's a slightly dated, but interesting, breakdown here.

    https://web.archive.org/web/20181118205842/https://www.rte-france.com/sites/default/files/rte_elec_report_2017.pdf

    Though - as to the cost of decommissioning - I'd have to go digging through all the latest reports and data to comment in more detail. That said, France typically has a multi-billion euro yearly profits due to energy exports. Absorbing a few more billion in cleanup costs sounds easy if it ends up being occurring.

    Whatever the theoretical numbers are, it hasn't stopped France beginning construction of 6 more reactors, and an option for 8 more afterwards. The intention (afaict) was to start mid-2024 and have them in production use by the end of the decade. I can't find more exact dates/info than this. https://www.nucnet.org/news/preparatory-construction-work-on-new-generation-of-nuclear-plants-to-begin-mid-2024-11-4-2023

    They're also building out one of the new smaller modular reactors as an experiment. If it goes well I could imagine another dozen or two reactors being built over the next few decades.

    This is what Ireland needs to do if we're to have any hope of meeting greenhouse gas reduction targets.

    Edit: about the cost overrun:

    a French report into the project in 2019 noted that several elements of the project’s construction had been launched prior to the completion of the reactor’s design, leading to certain sections of the work having to be demolished and rebuilt.

    This is what a prior poster already noted. If you build a one-off (and especially if you begin construction before the design is complete) then overruns are kind of expected. If you build a dozen more of these using the exact same design then it'll be significantly easier to meet the budget. Especially because you won't have to knock it down and rebuild - you actually have the final plans/design from the get-go!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,712 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    The 1st-gen reactors were all about plutonium production. Genuine interest in commercial fuel cycles was probably only really in the 1970s with the oil shocks, but then cheap gas came along.



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