Russia-Ukraine War (Threadbanned in op)

Jinglejangle69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122506314#Comment_122506314

I reckon this was planned with a view that Donald would be back in come November and if Ukraine are forced into negotiations this would be a good bargaining chip.

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505553#Comment_122505553

Could we run a temporary Luas line up the middle of the road there?

thatsdaft

In a parallel timeline

Where US invaded Mexico (oh I don’t know Nazi gangs or something) three years ago, and three years later Mexican army is rolling from town to town inside Arizona even tho an equal amount of land in Baja California state is occupied still

Would anyone call that a stategic success for the perpetrators of such a silly war?

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122506362#Comment_122506362

It also brought Ukraine back to the front pages in a big way which is bad for Trump as the majority of Americans are for supporting Ukraine. His stance is a vote loser.

Avatar in the Post

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122506049#Comment_122506049

Regardless of strategic value. To think Russia being successfully invaded is in anyway not a disaster, foremost for Putin, is to not know much about Putin and by extension, Russia.

Overheal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505407#Comment_122505407

Seems bold tbh, I'd have wanted to go in a liberated Russian tank to sow paranoia and chaos inside russia.

Or if I may be so bold, go one further and charge in in one of those venerated Ukrainian tractors

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122506362#Comment_122506362

I heard that too ,maybe on the radio.

Time to pin the Sexual Predator in Chief to the collar and get his "thoughts" on the situation and ask has he been in contact with his Russian buddies recently?

thatsdaft

https://united24media.com/latest-news/ukrainian-forces-take-control-of-82-settlements-and-expand-1150-km2-in-kursk-region-1763

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have captured 82 settlements and moved in 1,150 km² and 35 km in depth since the beginning of Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region in Russia.

This was reported by Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine 

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122501554#Comment_122501554

For context, this is what I said a week ago today:

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122478355#Comment_122478355

My view then, and also my view now, is that Ukraine attacked Russia where Russia was weak, that they may dig in but that their primary focus is on causing as much damage to the Russian military as possible, with secondary goals of redicting troops from elsewhere, cutting logistics and proving that they can use US vehicles on Russian soil without nuclear retaliation.

To expand on this, at the end of the day, in a war you have to fight somewhere. Sooner or later two armies will confront each other directly in a kinetic exchange. If that is inevitable, then you have to accept that, embrace it, and try to create conditions where your army is at an advantage, the other army is at a disadvantage or, as here, both.

Are they trying to take and hold territory - yes, but only insofar as it provides them with tactical/operational advantages. Is this being done to improve their negotiating strength - no, at least not directly. Indirectly, Ukraine's negotiating strength is improved when they defeat Russia on the battlefield or in other key areas such as economic / diplomatic pressure. Ukraine simply isn't interested in ceeding territory to Russia, so the suggestion that is often made (not sure if you are directly making it or not) that by taking Kursk they can trade it off for say Kherson and let Russia take Donbas and Crimea is not based in reality.

Ukraine have no interest in any negotiations that don't involve the complete withdrawal of Russian troops. That could only change if they are defeated on the battlefield and even then it is not guaranteed because conceding territory to Russia could result in the political collapse of the Ukrainian state.

The bottom line, as I've said before, is that to understand what is happening you shouldn't look at the dog in the fight, but rather the fight in the dog. Russia may have a larger military on paper, and it unquestionably has a larger economy than Ukraine. But for Ukraine the fight is existential, whereas, despite Putin's assertions to the contrary, it is a war of choice for Russia. Ukraine have no option but to fight, whereas Russia do.

So if you are, meaning no disrespect to you personally, looking at the war as the Russians would like you to do, being that the bigger side will always win and the smaller side must make concessions, its easy to fall into the trap of thinking that the Ukranians look at it from that point of view as well, and in that context, taking a piece of Russia to improve the negotiating position makes sense.

But I would suggest that the correct way of looking at this is that Ukraine has the same options that faced Kyle Rees and Sarah Conor - either they stop the terminator or they will die. It cannot be bargained with, it doesn't feel pity or remorse. Ukraine has to fight. In that context, the benefits of this operation are manifest and the downside risks were moderate but acceptable. As it turned out, it has worked out very well so far, and there has been almost no downside. It was never intended as a stunt or as a bargaining chip, but as a further step towards defeating Russia. Long may that continue.

Markcheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505432#Comment_122505432

He can do that , and the Ukrainians dig in along a line that suits them, and head south east into Belegerod, blocking off russian supply lines to the kharkiv and then the Donbass as they go..

It's just the scenic route to Rostov-on Don ,

thatsdaft

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1824072519340417246

If Lgov is captured the everything to the west of that right back to Ukraine along E38 falls

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505776#Comment_122505776

There now is this

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1824067243681943739

Roald Dahl

It's still early days and who can tell how this will all play out, but I think the Ukrainian plans are bigger and bolder than we are allowing ourselves to believe.

If I allow myself to think about what makes sense, this is not just a quick trip over the border and then a dash back home again. This is the opening stage of a drive up along the border of the undefended Russian interior as far as Belarus, with the aim of completely encircling the Russians in Ukraine. This will completely cut them of from additional troop arrivals and their supply lines.

Ukraine will then either simply let them stay put until they decide to capitulate, or they will choose to attack, but from behind, not from the existing front within Ukraine.

To go further, I could see a similar drive all the way down to Crimea.

We shall see!

o1s1n

I see it's been reported that Ukraine are using some British Challenger II tanks in this offensive.

Okay so they're not being driven by a NATO country, but they're still NATO tanks in Russia being used to attack Russia.

Still no nuclear war. I think Putin's nuclear bluff may be on the way to being called…

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122506292#Comment_122506292

2007 called - they want that bouffant hairstyle back.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122506871#Comment_122506871

They won't encircle any Russians in Ukraine doing that. You need to have a look here

https://liveuamap.com/

The Belarussian border is SE of Homel.

bear1

Ukraine should now hold a referendum and 100% Kursk joins Ukraine as a result

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122506540#Comment_122506540

Thanks, agree with most of that. Certainly I'd share the view that a smaller but motivated fighting force can match a larger but unmotivated force. The Ukrainians have never lacked for motivation over the past couple of years - had they been fully backed by the EU, UK and US without the drip-feed and slow release of restrictions that we've seen, I don't think the Russians would hold half the territory they currently do. The concern I have is the reliance the Ukrainians have on Western supplies and what happens when something causes that supply to slow down. I only need to think back a few months to the unnecessary territory ceded to the Russians simply because of the uncertainty over availability of shells and heavy equipment.

Pound for pound the Ukrainians wipe the floor with the Russian army.

I'm just enjoying the current gains being made… I don't know/ feel the need to know what the ultimate plan here is (or if it is a high level plan only, leaving lots of scope to adapt as things on the ground change), so posts like yours are always interesting.

Sweet.Science

This is getting underplayed by everyone concerned

Ukraine is bombarding Russian infrastructure while on the move at considerable pace.

Surreal

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122507032#Comment_122507032

There’s a very interesting long read today here

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1824068839589531904

PUTIN IS VULNERABLE: WESTERN POLICY MASKS RUSSIAN WEAKNESS:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/putin-vulnerable-western-policy-masks-russian-weakness

thomil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122507026#Comment_122507026

The thing is, in most of the countries that count, production capacity, and actual production of military hardware is improving with every single day. Rheinmetall in Germany is building new production facilities for tank and artillery shells, the IRIS-T assembly lines are being scaled up massively, production for Gepard SPAAG systems is moving along at speed, and so on. With every day that passes, Ukraine's supply lines improve. Is the level of supply where I'd like it to be? Of course not, but we've come a long way from the days when all Ukraine got was some life-expired MANPADS. Now granted, I may be biased towards the contributions made by Germany, primarily because I'm German myself and as such a native speaker of that language, but nearly every time I check ither a German news website or the the Federal Government's Ukraine subpage, I see new equipment being delivered, and not just the "sexy" stuff such as Patriot SAMs or tanks, but the mundane logistical stuff that keeps an army running.

TheValeyard

One less problem for Ukraine

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1824095717964534134

TheValeyard

And the bad news,

Seems the Russians finally hit one

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1824092302739976402

SchrodingersCat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122507178#Comment_122507178

Wow. It only took them two years to hit one.

Thats seriously impressive for the shoot and scoot platform.

BKtje

Will need to try and figure out why it got hit now. An error or a new system / procedure in use by Russia.

Avatar in the Post

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122507251#Comment_122507251

Looks like it was spotted by a Russian Drone and tracked and fired upon once targeted by a Russian missile. It's a wonder it doesn't happen more often.

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122507093#Comment_122507093

Maybe its the pessimist in me, but I'm very aware of how quickly the political winds can change. Its not just a question of production within Western countries, but where that production goes. We're already looking at a tinderbox in the middle east. A lot of the production will be to replace and re-stock Western weapons, munitions and hardware that was sent to Ukraine.

Productions desperately needed to be kicked into gear. I just hope that the US continues to throw its weight behind Ukraine's efforts to boot Putin off their land, that the EU doesn't fracture in its resolve, that the likes of Orban don't manage to put a stick in the spokes of supply chain issues, and that nothing kicks off in the middle east that might divert money, materials and focus away from what needs to be done in Ukraine.

If you think back to where we were in Spring this year, there's no doubt however that Ukraine is currently riding a wave, which is great.

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122507257#Comment_122507257

The ISW report few posts up makes it clear that a conflict with Iran is bad for Russia as it stretches their stocks if they help Iran and kills the “alliance” if they don’t

Not to mention Israel are on a warpath against anyone involved in October 6th, a list which includes Russia

Perhaps they can send some goats 🐐 like they done to North Korea

Meanwhile them F16s will get some goodies

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1824103756427890708

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122507158#Comment_122507158

Those jalopies are very old.

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122507204#Comment_122507204

I don't think that is the first. I've seen at least two videos claiming to he HIMARS hits. Looked like it too.