Russia-Ukraine War (Threadbanned in op)

Luna84

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122316371#Comment_122316371

What was it you said, Germany hope to field 1000 field guns by 2030? And you said they would last a few months in a war with Russia? I don't even think Ukraine has lost that much in over 2 years fighting.

Ukraine has lost far more than 1000 field guns. What planet are you on? You probably still believe Zelenski saying that only 41000 soldiers has died.

macraignil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122317408#Comment_122317408

What's your source for the numbers of losses Ukrainians have suffered at the hands of putin's terrorists, the kremlin?

Luna84

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122317418#Comment_122317418

Well now if we are all so gullible I have a few magic beans I'd sell you for a good price.

Why is there a shortage of fighting men because they have all died and been injured.

pummice

Good article on the current situation on the Kherson bridgehead

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjerdw9g159o

macraignil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122317425#Comment_122317425

I have heard of putin's shortage of fighting men and the need they have to import poor people from other parts of the globe to keep their cannon fodder stocks in Ukraine maintained so they can hold on to the parts of Ukraine putin has illegally occupied. Latest I read is that even north Korea is thinking of helping him out with his cannon fodder shortage.

I don't think Ukraine has suffered insignificant losses but it had a population of almost 44million before putin's more widespread attacks in 2022 and unlike the war of choice that putin has engaged in, Ukraine is fighting for its survival so has a much more willing group of people to source soldiers from. Ukrainians have a choice between getting murdered by putin's terrorists if they stop fighting or defending themselves and running the risk of getting killed when trying to stop genocide in their country. It is often said as well that defending forces have an advantage over those attacking by having prepared positions so losses in putin's forces are likely to be much larger. A lot of putin's forces have died and been injured and recruiting replacements is going to continue to be more and more difficult as it becomes obvious to more people that there is nothing he can achieve by occupying parts of Ukraine.

Luna84

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122317536#Comment_122317536

I never said Russia isn't loosing men. Both sides are loosing men all the time it's just for some reason some people cannot get their heads around the fact that a very high number of Ukrainians have died.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122317425#Comment_122317425

As Ryan McBeth said at the start of the war, Ukraine trades territory for lives, Russia trades lives for territory.

We're seeing the fruits of this over the past months. Record casualties on the Russian side, easily a million men killed and wounded over the past years, and videos of untrained, poorly equipped conscripts getting massacred by artillery and drones.

No doubt Ukraine have problems, but Russia is breaking itself on Ukrainian defences. A town here, a village there, what does it matter when the defenders have months to fortify the next town and the next village.

Polar101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122317408#Comment_122317408

So what are the correct numbers for lost artillery pieces and soldiers then?

RGARDINR

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122317536#Comment_122317536

Ukraine does have 44 million people but does that include all regions of Ukraine like Crimea and other regions that Russia has falsely occupied? Also the 44 million probably includes pro Russians in that figure that are fighting against Ukraine and who want a Russian victory. Also with people who have left Ukraine. I say the figure is considerably less that Ukraine can actually look to get people to fight for them.

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122317408#Comment_122317408

In total, 615 airplanes and 276 helicopters, 26,777 unmanned aerial vehicles, 533 air defence missile systems, 16,446 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,357 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 11,020 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 23,049 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation. - Ukranian losses as per Russian MOD

Is that your source? I only ask as before the invasion Ukraine had just under 2000 pieces of artillery and since then have received about 1000 from the west. So the Russians claim to have destroyed nearly 4x as many as Ukraine actually have?

When the OP referenced 1000 field guns, I assume he meant 155mm artillery and not mortars and unguided MLRS. So the figures would be even smaller.

riffmongous

Coming right on the heels of the Biden - Trump debate debacle now is the French Election this weekend.. Le Pen's party are favourites and she was quite a big fan of Putin up until the most recent invasion forced her to change her (public) tune

TheValeyard

Lets see if true, have doubts

https://twitter.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1807031696321114432

zv2

A little bit of history

https://twitter.com/20gimsack/status/1806877568609513871

macraignil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122317632#Comment_122317632

Just took the figure from what I got when I did a google search for the number and it presented a graph that is said to have the World Bank as the source. Not sure what methodology they use in their calculations. It shows a peak of population in Ukraine about 1993 of over 52million and a gradual drop up until 2021 and a more rapid drop since then. Not sure if they include territory occupied by putin but I guess the figure of over 52million in 1993 would include all of the territory inside Ukraine's internationally recognised borders. There is from what I have read a lot of forced migration within Ukraine due to the invasion so I would imagine a lot of the younger Ukrainians from the occupied territories are now living further to the west in the country.

No idea how many of these people would be wanting a victory for putin but seeing some of what he has done to their homes in the east of Ukraine I would imagine his support amongst the Ukrainian people is significantly less now than it might have been before the full scale invasion. I am in no way saying Ukraine can field an army of 44million people and think this figure includes a number who would not be able to put up much resistance to putin's terrorists. There are a lot more things people can do to help fight putin than carry a gun on the front lines and I have seen videos produced showing how some retired elderly people in Ukraine help out by producing camouflage and some household sized drone assembly operations look to be very productive in the number of putin's terrorists they help to eliminate. As we have seen with support for Ireland from abroad in history from Irish people who found success after leaving I'd imagine there are a lot of Ukrainians living abroad who are very supportive of their relatives suffering from putin's terrorism in their homeland. The figures I found would suggest this number would amount to millions of potential supporters for Ukraine living abroad. Canada alone is said to have a population of 1.36million Canadian Ukrainians and this may explain some of the support from these countries governments for Ukraine.

zv2

I've seen a few videos like this recently

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1807088027229184486

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122317540#Comment_122317540

Ah you're back again. Now concern trolling over Ukrainian figures (previously you were acting outraged over Russian casualties on annexed territory due to Putin's invasion)

While you are still in the thread, out of curiosity, why does support of Ukraine trigger you so much?

Assuming for a second you aren't actually a Kremlin bot, if another neutral country, for example, Ireland were being invaded by Putin and Irish people were being slaughtered in the same way the Ukrainians are, for the same reasons - would you be making these same remarks?

I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122318431#Comment_122318431

People like them are in every population and usually called contrarians. Regardless of the situation at any given time they will always go against the grain just for the sake of it. Being an obfuscation gives them nourishment. Expect frustration and feeling nihilistic dealing with them at their level. Ignore is your best friend.

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122318191#Comment_122318191

I still remember the footage of the FPV drone trying to chase a KA-52 a few months back.

I've also seen larger quadcopters ferrying FPV and releasing them to extend their range.

Won't be long untill we see a FPV drone taking down a shahed drone.

It's been an eye opening war for the effectiveness of cheap drones.

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122318820#Comment_122318820

It's only getting started. Weird and wonderful things to come.

Say my name

This deserves to be on RTE 1 nine o clock news.

http://twitter.com/ArturRehi/status/1807128655325282763

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122316592#Comment_122316592

No, I do mean basic unguided 155mm shells.

Don't get me wrong, there's a very specific and critical place for MLRS/HIMARS vehicles, and almost exclusively those vehicles at Corps level (Where aircraft also become more important), and but the majority of the work at division and below is done by good, old fashioned unguided tube artillery with rockets mainly in the counter-battery or HPT role. Trust me on this.

PopePalpatine

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122319167#Comment_122319167

BuT wHy DoEsN't UkRaInE wAnT pEaCe?

TheValeyard

Hard to confirm since we cannot trust anything from Russian sources,

But looks like the Russians had a very successful hit on an armoured supply train

Im surprised like everyone else that Russia hit a military target and not a civilian apartment

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1807154178633994664

Say my name

Tatarstan's rate of reported dead in Ukraine went up 18% for the six months of 2024 above 2022 and 2023 combined 24 month total. The reason given is as a consequence of the state being given the BRICS summit and the "Future Games".

So basically the government of Tatarstan was told send more men to Ukraine and then you can have these goodies. Up to that the Tatarstan reported dead was well below neighbouring states. They say this decision was partially so that numbers killed would be evened somewhat not to cause region instability.

http://tverezo.info/post/191823

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122319435#Comment_122319435

I do trust you, but aI suppose a better question is if the senior generals also have the same view?

If so, then their failure to keep pace with artillery shell production is deeply worrying.

However, its also possible that the numbers have shifted on the cost benefit. If a basic artillery shell costs $1,000 and an excalibur costs $25,000, the question is whether 25 unguided shells or 1 excalibur is more useful. With basic artillery shells becoming more expensive and the potential for economies of scale with the more advanced system, the dial ticks more towards guided munitions. Add in the cost of primer and reduced barrell wear, less training and logistics needed, and guided munitions make a lot more sense.

Forbes view on Ukrainian counter battery fire:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/09/18/artillery-duels-are-a-thing-of-the-past-as-ukrainian-and-russian-gunners-hunt-each-other-at-long-range/

Perhaps a bit sensational, but the key point being that unguided artillery shells are not perceieved as being sufficiently useful by NATO to invest heavily in them vs precision fires.

This is based on the ochams razor view that if you exclude the possibility that NATO are incompetent, stupid or remiss in their duties, the obvious reason for not producing massive amounts of unguided 155 is that it wont be as useful as large amounts of guided munitions.

By contrast, for example, the utility of prepared fixed defensive positions has been proven in Ukraine, and the Baltics consider it worth heavily investing in them.

Say my name

In Siberia, Vladimir Putin has given the green light for gold mining in previously pristine land where the native people practised farming, wild food gathering, wild animal hunting and reindeer farming. Now the prospectors have the backing of Putin. Who are using this "roof" to accuse the locals of being foreign agents. Being accused of being a foreign agent is a way the kremlin use since the Ukrainian war to jail and move people to penal colonies.

http://sibreal.org/a/kak-v-sibiri-malochislennye-narody-boryutsya-s-zolotodobytchikami/33014088.html

Raoul Duke III

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122318542#Comment_122318542

There's a world of difference between contrarianism and just plain trolling.

Say my name

In a move to strengthen relations and to lead to an understanding on how to turn russian citizens more like north korean citizens. The first group of Russian children are being sent to a North Korean institutional children's camp.

http://twitter.com/nakolputina/status/1807322594254668075

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122321258#Comment_122321258

I can't speak for most NATO nations in terms of doctrine approved by the senior generals, only the US, UK and French (At least, French as of three years ago). The French are a bit different in the Division Deep, but when it comes to tube artillery, the differences are pretty small. When it comes to ammunition supply, I can't speak to any but the US, and the US position is that it has 'enough for its needs'. (i.e. a set of war stocks it does not dip into, even when giving to the Ukrainians. Score one for excess capacity being purchased by the US even if the US itself doesn't actually need it, Javelin being an excellent case in point).

The 'change' in artillery doctrine referred to by the article is not a change from the US and UK perspective. We can do counter-battery, we have the radars and will service any targets so detected, but it's not our preferred way of doing business for two reasons. Firstly, modern artillery can 'shoot and scoot' pretty damned quickly, target decay is a real thing resulting in wasted rounds. We'll still shoot in case we get lucky, or in case the artillery we're shooting at is an older type (such as towed). Secondly, in order for us to get a hit on their locations in counterbattery, it means we've let them shoot at our guys first. Not a preferred course of action. Instead, we like to see first, shoot first. The British, in particular, seem very good at this; in the US we prefer a more brute force approach, but we're the US, we can afford to do it. You will recall I had mentioned in my previous post that rockets have a place in counter-battery. Enter, amongst other artillery-hunting assets in the division, the M30A2 GMLRS, a precision area effect rocket round. We don't want to hit individual targets, we go for the battery, and we don't want to be worried about a lack of calibration if the detector is a dozen meters off (or if the rocket's navigation system is jammed). A number of targets will take the M31 unitary round (or ATACMS at higher levels), but not normally artillery targets.

That leaves a whole host of other work to be done, and that's what is mainly the purview of tube artillery. Of six artillery battalions available to a typical deployed US division, five of them are tube, one is rocket. Think of all the targets a division is going to work before the brigades make contact, how many of them are not artillery 20+ km behind the forward line of troops, and how many are truly suited for a precision targeting process instead of a battery six airburst. And then when the brigades do make contact, their artillery (one of the five division tube battalions normally assigned to support each brigade) are not hanging around to worry about ten-digit-grids being hammered out with lead calculations for every moving tank and infantryman they are engaging. You want to shoot a point target, use a guided round. If you're shooting a mechanised infantry company, use basic munitions.

zv2

Lights out in Belgorod, lol

https://twitter.com/WorldCrisi19621/status/1807703115551953105