Russia-Ukraine War (Threadbanned in op)

NIMAN

Is this still in the evening news?

I don't think I've heard it mentioned in recent nights.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122338382#Comment_122338382

Fair enough, my main objection was to poster characterising them as some kind of quite ambivalent "neutral" (equivalent to India perhaps?) when they are nothing of the sort in my opinion, regardless of what they say. Neutral (on the side of Putin), paraphrasing Irish WW2 policy.

I am making a guess that Putin told the Chinese pre war it would be really easy to topple Ukraine, all wrapped up nice & quick with Zelensky out or killed and another Putin puppet leader in. The outcome they want is this promised Russian victory (impossible now I think) or a partial victory + end to the war that Putin can accept and be happy with (still achievable). Ukraine pushing them out of occupied territories, the Russian military running out of gear/men and suffering a kind of collapse etc. is not what they want, it might even unacceptable to them and and I think they may increase their support if this looks like happening.

You are right that they want Russia weak and dependent on them as a junior partner/resources supplier. However, Russia is not at the races as regards competing with them over territory, or posing much of a threat, even before their war in Ukraine inflicted serious damage. The US and China are the economic/technological/military superpowers with giant populations and Russia is not near that level at all, no matter how much Putin blusters and threatens. The current Russia - China relationship is totally inverted from the USSR - China one in the Cold war, as regards who is the leader, and who depends on whom.

thomil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122340527#Comment_122340527

In the 20th century certainly, but before that? Not really. Up until well into the 19th century, China was nearly completely closed off. It had its vassals and tributary states, sure, but beyond that, there was no contact with the outside. The only real attempt to open up to the outside world by imperial China, the famed expedition by Admiral Zheng He, was limited to a few decades and after the emperor who’d launched it had died, all traces of Zheng He’s treasured fleet were destroyed.

Trade missions by other countries, when they did arrive and were admitted, were treated as delivering tribute to the son of heaven and rather than trade, they were provided with gifts. But these were always one-time affairs, no proper trading relationship like you’d see between, say, Europe and the freshly independent United States, or non-Christian powers like the Ottoman Empire. It was only the shock of the opium wars in the early to mid 19th century that saw China begin to open itself.

But by then, the court bureaucracy had become so insular that they had no experience in dealing with the rising powers of Europe, as the very concept of a nation state was utterly alien to them. This type of institutionalised insularism and isolationism lasted until the end of the Chinese monarchy, and was actually one of the key drivers behind events like the Boxer rebellion. It was only after the Xinhai revolution of 1912 that China adopted a more sane approach to dealing with the outside world, not least to people such as Sun Yat Sen or Chiang Kai Shek.

Even with that though, that’s still millennia worth of tradition and precedents that’s you’re dealing with, something you can’t really shake that easily. I just thumbed through my dad’s old copy of Mao’s little red book while writing this (Yep, he was part of the far-left student protests in Germany in the late 1960s), and some of the passages in there are lifted straight from the works of Sun Tsu, Confucius or Lao Tsu, the same influences that Mao and the CCP were trying to eliminate. And while the current Chinese government certainly doesn’t see Europeans as simple barbarians anymore, they still believe in the approaches I outlined in my post.

It should go without saying by the way that all of this is highly simplified and an extremely high level overview. Whilst I’m certainly interested, I’m by no means an expert on China and I highly recommend that you, or anyone interested, should read up from more authoritative sources on the topic.

thomil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122340594#Comment_122340594

I honestly don’t think that Putin informed Beijing before making his move in Ukraine. My guess is that he wanted to present the world with a fait accompli with his lightning invasion of Ukraine. The first statements China issued after the invasion were pretty damning and it was only after the first weeks of the conflict had passed and it became clear that Russia wasn’t the massive juggernaut it had made itself out to be that China’s rhetoric began to change. For me, it looks like Beijing wanted to see how things played out before committing themselves. China and Russia are competing for influence in several areas, most notably in Central Asia, and a Russian victory in Ukraine would have the potential to embolden Putin to be more assertive in that region, endangering Chinese influence and assets there.

So for Beijing, the current situation is pretty much ideal. A competitor on their doorstep is in a weakened position and increasingly dependent on China, Russia’s former client states, some of which are pretty rich in resources, are pulling away from Moscow’s orbit and becoming more open to deals with Beijing, and meanwhile, the discord down by the war in Ukraine helps to keep Europe and the US distracted politically, whilst still keeping them accessible economically, something that Beijing needs to keep its own economy going.

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122340492#Comment_122340492

Most likely in the Amur region of eastern Russia.

http://amur.kp.ru/daily/27603/4954464/

This is also a prolific gold mining centre. Probably not connected.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122340688#Comment_122340688

That does sound plausible to me. I don't remember their statements right at the start other than I think they refused to condemn Russia at all (has not changed) or even call it a war or invasion (are they still talking of the Ukraine "crisis"?).

What I had been basing the "guess" on (it is totally idle speculation I admit) was my memory of the Olympics (where I think Putin attended and met with Xi) and the Russo-Chinese statements about their "unlimited friendship" etc. pre the invasion.

It struck me afterwards, in hindsight, as diplomacy that was meant to look and sound wonderful (for both of them) in light of a lightning Russian victory, a large (potential - sorry) EU accession state that had been drifting much closer to the West in recent years getting turned by force into a friendly Putin/Russian oligarch satrapy. The two big global autocracies marching forward hand in hand, land grabbing + imposing their will, and spitting in the eyes of the West etc.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122340527#Comment_122340527

That is as far from China as I've ever heard.

riffmongous

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122340688#Comment_122340688

By the same token China won't want Russia too weakened or Putin replaced by someone more open to the West. It's in their interest too to keep the war going and not let the US concentrate their attention on Taiwan

thomil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122340780#Comment_122340780

That’s my take on it. They won’t want Russia too weak, just as much as they don’t want it too strong. I’m not sure that Taiwan is on top of Xi’s mind at the moment though. For all his rethoric, China’s economy isn’t as stable as we might believe, from what I’m reading, the real estate sector in particular has the potential to tank much of the country’s economy.

riffmongous

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122341007#Comment_122341007

Yeah I think it's all bluff at the moment from the Chinese side regarding them attacking Taiwan too, but they won't want the Americans being able to focus their military might in the region and potentially trying to force their hand.

keeponhurling

Maybe we overestimate the Chinese.

And maybe Xi is simply not the sharpest tool in the box.

Since he took over in around 2013(ish?), nearly everything is in a worse state.

• Economy stagnated. Aggressive approach towards big business, while small business almost decimated during COVID with no parachute support. Radiates perception of economic and political instability. Stock market has decreased while rest of the world sees strong growth. Steady flow of investment capital out of China into other Asian countries.
• Virtually impossible for new graduates to get jobs, unless somebody "opens the back door" for you, thus a brain drain or for those who stay a generation unemployed and living with their parents. Not to mention the mental and social problems this leads to.
• Huge demographic timebomb, which he has only accelerated by driving young people out. One-child policy is now gone, but still not affordable to have multiple kids. No child's allowance, subsidies etc. offered.
• Housing and debt crisis. Protests on the streets. Average Chines people don't put their savings into bonds, equities or savings/investment products (generally). They buy property. There's a real house of cards feeling about this crisis.
• Poorer relations with most countries (Russia aside)
• Closer to war, due constant threatening of Taiwan. Military buildup in Asia due to China and North Korea's threatening behavior.
• Censorship increased, as the internet has become more developed
• He has replaced anyone with vision or talent, with loyal cronies in their 70s. Echo chamber vibes. Seems like every month government minister gets a "heart attack" or is "suicided".

When I was last there I was quite surprised by the feeling of hopelessness people have.

Markcheese

Maybe you're right and we do over-estimate them - the fear is that Xi does too-

The major fear is that he only gets told what he wants to hear , certainly no one dares disagree with him .

Say my name

http://twitter.com/TrumpFile/status/1808918134465737084

Bigly.

His current wife is also said to have been kgb through her teenage years. She had a boyfriend but he said she was always very guarded with information. Then one day without warning she just disappeared and the next he knew she was with Donald Trump.

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122342480#Comment_122342480

Sounds like the other side of the coin to the Biden/ Clinton conspiracies tbh. If there was any truth to it you'd think some of the mainstream liberal/ centrist media would have unearthed it by now.

Hande hoche!

Russian collusion leftovers reheated and slopped out for another cycle. Makes a change from Agenda 2025, should be grateful in some ways.

victor8600

Who can explain to me the game Orban is playing? I mean, ok, he is an unprincipled opportunist, so I would understand why he would support Putin in February/March 2022 — it makes a sick kind of sense to side with a "sure" winner who would be taking over a neighbouring country soon. But now Putin is a lame duck. Ukraine will never surrender, and even if Russia somehow forces a ceasefire and the war is frozen in its current state, it is a lost game for Putin. His propaganda may say otherwise, but even most Russians won't consider it an acceptable victory for the huge losses Russia had already sustained. Putin will be blamed, inside Russia, for everything that went wrong, as soon as he is dead or overthrown.

So what does Orban get out of it, besides very angry Ukraine on Hungary's border?

Dubh Geannain

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122342664#Comment_122342664

He is also now going to visit Putin as the current EU president. There's some optics right there. "EU come crawling to Moscow in attempt to broker peace".

victor8600

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122342683#Comment_122342683

Exactly. Putin will be pissing himself with glee. But why does Orban behave as if he is a Putin's lackey? Do Hungarians feel especially close connections to Russia? Would they want to submit to Russia themselves as they were forced to do in 1956? It seems somewhat unlikely.

keeponhurling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122342664#Comment_122342664

A sense of self-importance perhaps.

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122342664#Comment_122342664

It's always money and probably some komprimat hold on him personally or threat to his family someway.

There's always long term planning with the Putin administration or else we wouldn't have need for the dictatorship. Short term is crap. But long term plans come to fruition now and again. Put enough long term plans in place and they'll keep popping into place every day of the year and every year on.

The threat of being the baddest actor and getting away with poisoning, killing abroad and no reprocussions after and being in control of underground organisations as prostitution and so forth brings immense power and leverage against any who they'd like to control.

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122338091#Comment_122338091

I am old enough to remember same line used during Cold War

History delivered an ending to Soviets that Hollywood couldn’t dream up

Same or much worse will happen again to Russians as this time the foundations are even more flimsy and there is no ideology to bring the weak minded far left along.

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122337873#Comment_122337873

That’s … an unfortunate … ending right there

Dubh Geannain

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122342707#Comment_122342707

Personally I think it's based in anti-liberal feelings due the foothold anti-western propaganda managed to attain before the invasion. Orban no doubt has his own arrangements with Putin also and is taking lessons on how to slowly turn his country into an authoritarian one on a wave of manipulated Nationalism.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122342577#Comment_122342577

Project 2025 is the new Pizzagate.

TheValeyard

Those kind of losses are not sustainable

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1809185690648727557

RGARDINR

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122343026#Comment_122343026

Crazy amount they have lost there. It's more I worry will Ukraine be able to retake what they lost or will they be forced to accept a peace deal they don't want to accept and lose land that Russia illegally occupies. I can just see this grounding on years and years this conflict.

Jinglejangle69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122343167#Comment_122343167

They won’t be forced to accept anything they don’t want to.

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122343659#Comment_122343659

And before people try to argue the west will force Ukraine, remember 80 countries signed the recent peace summit which had:

territorial integrity of all states, including Ukraine, within their internationally recognized borders

I'd argue it's more dangerous for the west to force Ukraine into accepting Russia's claim to their annexed lands than it is for funding Ukraine for another upteen years. Or how ever long this war will last.

Lirange

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122341703#Comment_122341703

The potential downside to this is that it’s destabilising. Sometimes this can provoke more cynical, risky, & reckless policies.

RGARDINR

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122343659#Comment_122343659

Sorry wrong words I used, more abandoned. I just hope Ukraine doesn't end up being yesterday's news.