Russia-Ukraine War

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122596987#Comment_122596987

You are mixing up Oligarchic assets and Russian State assets

Literally oranges vs watermelons

And yes not only US have been transferring these they even passed the laws needed to for this, something not even started in EU

Look I am extremely supportive of EU as an institution but we have to admit they have seriously dropped the ball here

EU has the funds to end this war, funds that doesn’t require spending a cent of European taxpayers money

Which would also send every shithole regime a strong message of what we stand for

Instead EU are praying each time there’s a missile barrage that a nuclear plant is not hit and half of Europe is not rendered uninhabitable for next few thousand years

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122596994#Comment_122596994

I get your point. I do not agree myself with these arguments against seizing it.

Some of it will go home.

I suppose, if there's some kind of division between Western countries over seizing the Russian govt. assets and it doesn't happen everywhere as a big bang, some of it would go to countries that didn't get their hands dirty doing it, or were opposed to it (?).

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597010#Comment_122597010

The key question to ask is why those assets where in Europe in first place

I am sure Putin knew we’ll months in advance he was going to start the war but he still gambled that EU is too weak and greedy to do anything about these assets

And he has proven to be right

Likes of Saudi etc invest in western economies precisely because there is literally nowhere else for them to stash their loot, everywhere else is either corrupt as hell and assets would disappear or don’t have a fraction of the liquidity of markets and laws to protect assets

They can’t keep the wealth at home as how would they keep it there? There’s no amount for example of gold on this planet to store let’s say Saudi oil earnings in

and that’s before we get to all these places not even wanting to keep their own kids and wives in their own country

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597022#Comment_122597022

I suppose they are here (in the EU, or in the West) because they are/were safe (stable predictible democratic states with strong rule of law and independent legal systems) + earn okay return. Same reason other autocracies/dictatorships might do it.

I would say Putin didn't think too much about the fate of these assets on the day after when planning because he expected to crush Ukraine quickly, throw a huge cloud of fud similar to the invasion of Crimea, roll out a puppet administration and have a fait accompli to present to the world before anyone could respond to what Russia had done.

I have always thought these should all be taken and handed over to Ukraine post-war as an enforced reparation (I assumed Russia would pay 0, and there is natural justice in recompensing Ukraine with their assets), but if Ukraine needs them before then, I can see some argument for doing it sooner.

thatsdaft

What the EU and ECB are doing is what we seen go on and on for years during the Euro crisis when Germany was all high and mighty lecturing (including this country) and sneering at everyone for not being as smart about economics as them , in what turned down to be a sham economy powered by Russian gas, selling out tools and tech to China and protected by US military

Until it got to a point when ECB done exactly what was thought as “unthinkable” and everyone just shrugged and moved on and euro was saved and interest rates for likes of Irish debt fell

This “crisis” of not resolved could lead to terrible consequences for Europe, like I said earlier, we should all fear what will happen if Ukraine falls or worse one of Putin’s missiles hits wrong thing

TheValeyard

Well, the Kerch bridge seems to be fcuked all by itself

https://www.dagens.com/war/russian-repairs-insufficient-as-crimean-bridge-parts-begin-to-collapse

silverharp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597080#Comment_122597080

I wouldnt call Germany a sham economy but they do have issues that will drag it down , they have a stupid energy policy (shunning nuclear), and they manage to have a foreign policy that alienates itsself from major markets, not sure how they turn it around but insert cold sniffle analogy for Europe

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597129#Comment_122597129

Maybe sham is too harsh a word but it has been exposed to be for a one trick pony dependent on Russia and China both of whom used them for own aims

If only there was 300bn that could be spend on type of heavy industries and weapons manufacturing that Germany has that could be found in the back of the couch somewhere to kickstart things 😃

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597004#Comment_122597004

I am not mixing up state and oligarch assets.

$300 billion in Russian state assets have been frozen.

The US froze $5bil and have given Ukraine zero. Unless you can point me to where they have transferred some of that $5 to Ukraine as I haven't seen any evidence they have.

The UK froze over £8bil and have given Ukraine zero.

I'm asking why both the UK & US are pressuring the EU to hand over Russian seized assets when both the UK and US have handed over zero?

My point about seized oligarch assets was the UK still have not handed over the proceeds of the sale of Chelsea to Ukraine and that's a far easier endeavor as it's personal assets and not sovereign assets.

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597147#Comment_122597147

You mentioned Chelsea, was that a state asset or an oligarch asset

US has transferred oligarch seized assets as far back as 2023

US passed REPO act in spring, banks started reporting Russian assets in early summer, transfers will be done once they find all the loot

Meanwhile nothing in Europe along those lines is even on the books to pass as law in first place

I am not sure why you choosing this hill to die on, as it seems in time you will endup on wrong side

EU and eu states need to be called out for their feet dragging

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597159#Comment_122597159

I mentioned the sale of Chelsea to show that the UK not only haven't handed over Russian frozen sovereign assets, they haven't even handed over oligarch's frozen assets, which they agreed to. Seizing private citizens assets is far easier than state ones, case in point, even in Ireland, we have laws to seize private citizens ill-gotten assets.

Now can you show me where the US have handed over some of that $5bil state assets they seized?

I've no problem with you pointing out the EU should be handing over those seized funds, but I've an issue with you giving the UK & US a free pass.

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597196#Comment_122597196

You are using the old tried and tested whataboutery technique to downplay and deflect from actions that can be taken in Europe to end this war faster at Russias expense too

In US all banks had to report any Russian assets to Treasury by 2nd August and within 10days of any new assets

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2479

Next step probably in next few months would be transfer of these assets

Now where are similar laws to REPO in Europe?

The US and UK have sent insane amounts of weapons and funds in hundred billion plus range to Ukraine while likes of Germany is busy shouting they will cut aid because Ukrainians will be getting a couple of billion from interest on these state assets

Avatar in the Post

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122595589#Comment_122595589

That'd make a good satirical drawing.

Avatar in the Post

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597128#Comment_122597128

Self fulfilling - The Russians don't want to spend scarce money on it because it would be wasted if Ukraine take it out with a missile.

thatsdaft

https://nltimes.nl/2024/09/09/netherlands-wants-ban-free-travel-russian-diplomats-espionage-concerns

Netherlands and 7 other EU states want to stop Russian diplomats (aka spies) and their families travelling freely across Schengen borders

Germany, Austria and Italy are opposed of course!

silverharp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597143#Comment_122597143

It would be silly for Europe to start stealing assets of other countries, other creditor nations will only start looking for the exits down the road, given the state of the US economy the last thing the US need is more $ crises or higher interest rates

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597430#Comment_122597430

Stealing?

Criminal asset forfeiture has plenty of precedent in both national and international laws

Russia started an illegal criminal war, committed war crimes and their president is even wanted at The Hague

Best of luck to them arguing this war of theirs is not criminal in a court

If anything might set an example that causes future Fuhrers from starting stupid wars in Europe if it makes them stop and consider what might happen to their loot

——---

Russia; we will destroy post WW2 world order and peace institutions while spitting on laws like Geneva conventions

Also Russia: bwhaaaaa they breaking the rules!

joseywhales

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597430#Comment_122597430

I don't get the comment on the us economy. Which by all measures is by far the more resilient and powerful economy on the planet for at least 80 years + . The most technologically advanced country and the largest energy exporter in the world, they dominate every sector. Nobody comes close.

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597490#Comment_122597490

You are not the only one, I asked earlier if not western countries then where exactly all these third rate places invest? There is literally nowhere else with rule of law, low corruption and the depths of markets available

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597430#Comment_122597430

Russia stole foreign assets.

As for the Russian assets in the system, they are indefinitely frozen due to the invasion. That didn't cause some exodus from the global systems by authoritarian states.

As to whether they could be liquidised to rebuild Ukraine - that's more of a legal and geopolitical issue. Currently the interest is providing around 3 billion worth of annual credit to Ukraine.

Of course if they really wanted to, I'm sure they could find a way to legally sell them, but perhaps they want to keep that in the back pocket as leverage against Putin's regime.

thatsdaft

Russia stole a quarter of another country

If someone breaks into your house robs it clean and then starts squatting in living room, you sure as hell wouldn’t be calling the CAB as “criminals” for seizing the bank assets of that robber/murderer/squarter in your house and giving it to the victim

Or going on about how this would set bad precedent for other criminals not to keep their loot in the bank

dinorebel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122595877#Comment_122595877

Boris will help nobody but Boris.

thatsdaft

….

https://twitter.com/Oksii33/status/1833116951075258651

Detritus70

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597767#Comment_122597767

It is a stretch to call "Bild" journalism.

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597815#Comment_122597815

Bild is gutter press journalism but once in a while they get something right. This sounds plausible enough (assuming it happened before Lavrov "died" recently, a rumour the same poster was pushing)

rogber

Chinese banks reducing their business with Russia, obviously not for ethical reasons, but if it adds financial pressure to the Kremlin criminals can still be welcomed:

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-china-yuan-ruble-banks-1950254

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122596647#Comment_122596647

The most obvious answer is usually the correct one and you don't have to go looking for hypotheticals. The total aid from NATO countries to Ukraine is not the entirity of NATO's strength, but it is not an insignificant amount either. Over $100bn a year is not chump change, so it is understandable, even if disappointing, that the NATO countries are reluctant to give more.

thatsdaft

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1833132033431814217

nice

RoyalCelt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122598822#Comment_122598822

Some countries like Sweden are putting the likes of the US to shame.

thatsdaft

Ah the smell of burning Mordor in the morning

Stuff going boom 💥 all around Moscow this morning

https://twitter.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1833345919833522368

TheValeyard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122599616#Comment_122599616

Yep.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1833328883409539271

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1833325687790359003

The war they started is coming home.

Paddigol

How crap must Putins air defences be if they can hit Moscow that effectively with drones ffs. It's not as though they shouldn't have been expecting it either given that they're nearly 3 years into their 3 day war, have approaching 750,000 dead and injured, and Ukraine has already demonstrated its willingness and ability to strike deep into Russia with drones.

Even the partisan Russians have been well and truly hung out to dry by Putin. Will they turn on him? I won't be holding my breath.

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122599840#Comment_122599840

What air defences are there are causing more damage than the drones by slamming into buildings

Aside this poses a big issue for the “but but Russia has DA BOMB” crowd, if Russia ever uses a nuke then the same drones can render every major Russian city unlivable by delivering dirty nuke bombs, some of these are already converted civilian crop duster planes, a fine coat of plutonium or cobalt isotope dust would cause more radiation than an airburst nuke

RGARDINR

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122599619#Comment_122599619

Ukraine should pick out government institutions/military sites and power plants in Moscow and concentrate on them for about a month. No where else just there, give them a taste of this everyday in their capital. Day and night a few drones slamming in. Would really unsettle them in their beds and day to day life.

josip

Although it can be tempting to think that continued drone attacks on Moscow will have an impact on the local population and the war, is there any evidence of this having happened during other bombing campaigns in history?

Frequently, support for a regime, even if unpopular, increases when the citizens feel threatened.

Militarily, I doubt if there’s anything of importance in Moscow. Drone attacks on Moscow can only be “poking the bear” in the hope that he makes some stupid decisions.

Like Hitler did in 1940 when after the RAF bombings of Berlin, he switched the focus of Luftwaffe bombings from the airfields to London and started the Blitz.

In so doing he gave the RAF, who were on the ropes at the time, enough breathing space to survive.

RoyalCelt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122599840#Comment_122599840

Russia is just too big an area to defend even just western European Russia. Especially when they've lost a lot of AD to Ukraine attacks already and they've to push them up to defend ammo dumps and air fields closer to the front line. It leaves a lot of their refineries exposed.

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122599930#Comment_122599930

That's what I was advocating recently (and was attacked by some of the same posters celebrating this event), there should be more and more of it.

Will it make the population turn against Putin? Of course not. If anything the opposite might happen. But it's still a bit of well earned revenge for what Ukraine has to endure. Keep it coming

thatsdaft

So todays Apple ruling raises interesting questions

EU member state (us here in Ireland) has to collect and hand over 13bn from Apple despite multiple referendum where we were told our taxes are our own affairs yada yada and smacks of laws/rules being applied retroactively

While EU continues to refuse to transfer 300bn of seized Russian criminal state assets to Ukraine

It’s a fine day for rule of law when criminals are treated better than those following the law at the time

roosterman71

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122600075#Comment_122600075

The point here is we weren't following the law, or at least the ECJ deemed we weren't following our own law. The money comes to Ireland, not the EU, though if it's classed as a windfall then it has to go pay down our debt.

It's not really the same situation where the EU are to take money from another jurisdiction.

silverharp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597490#Comment_122597490

its about not taking anything for granted, if you straight-lined the US from now it would end in bankruptcy its up to them to renew themselves, 36Trillion in debt is not a good place to be, it makes holding US assets a little less desirable even if there is no other game in town presently

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122600130#Comment_122600130

The US has no issues servicing it's nat debt and US treasuries are top notch collateral

Russia on the other hand has a GDP lower than Texas

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122600428#Comment_122600428

Most of US debt is owned by people and institutions in US or allied countries

US debt is big because debt is money and US being the richest in the world has a lot of money

Now Chinese debt on other hand is something else to behold all tied up in worlds largest property bubble in a population that’s about to lose 300mn people (as much as live in US) couple decades and are very anti immigrant

But we going off topic on a tangent now

@silverharp I would recommend this book (it’s free from libraries and internet archive)

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/6617037-debt

rogber

Delivery of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine has been confirmed. The West, as usual, responding with talk of new sanctions instead of what would actually make a difference: give Ukraine free use of weapons anywhere they want on Russian territory, and tell Iran that Israel gets a green light to destroy more Iranian weapons facilities.

For someone with military knowledge: what exactly are the significance of these ballistic missiles compared to what Russia already has?

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122601268#Comment_122601268

Without wanting to sound like I'm buying into any of Putin's derisory red line threats, what you're proposing could set in train devastating consequences for millions more people and cause massive global instability. Global instability that I'm pretty sure suits a lot of very wealthy people by the way… the likes of Musk etc. It'll be the plebs in the street who will suffer if the Middle East completely falls to s**t… Iran, Egypt, Israel, Lebanon, Turkey, Syria etc… with tin pot dictators elsewhere in South America and Africa given free reign while the rest of the world is distracted… and China eyeing up opportunities to flex its military muscles in the midst of wars in Europe and Middle East.

I'd much prefer if the US slapped Netanyahu down to calm tensions in that region, and at the same time the West did the same to the autocrat in the Kremlin and gave Ukraine the military hardware it needs to decimate the Russian forces on its territory.

All this pussy footing around doesn't seem to be doing anything to stabilise things either in the Middle East or in Eastern Europe. D**king around with policies on migration, environment etc which just creates a vacuum for right leaning populists to fill. But then again, the rich are absolutely coining it these days, so I wonder why the boat is being kept from being rocked…

I don't know how Zelensky has kept so much calm over the past couple of years as the West prevaricates endlessly. He's without doubt one of the Statesmen of the 21st century so far, which is pretty remarkable when you consider his background and relative obscurity up to a few years ago.

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122599878#Comment_122599878

One way to do it would be to hit Kursk or Rostov-on-Don with a dirty nuke and then tell the Russians that everyone within 300km of the Ukrainian border must evacuate because there's more on the way. That would put the frighteners on them.

paul71

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122600428#Comment_122600428

Exactly, and they have no way out. Russia (even without this war and the sanctions) was already in a perilous state, it has 2 major issues, it has always been a developing nation, it never reached the economic footing of a developed nation, something Ireland arguably only achieved in the mid 90s, and it has a demographic deficit.

One of those factors is a problem for any nation, Germany is developed but has a demographic deficit (offset slightly by immigration), India has no demographic deficit but is still developing. The USA is developed and has a growing population, the best of both worlds. Russia outside Moscow and St. Petersburg is undeveloped and has an ageing, poorly educated and unhealthy population.

The US has no issue with borrowing or its economy, in fact if it did, it would be the rest of the world who would suffer.

bilbot79

Hopefully we can spend it on ditching the USC...

And then Ukr beats Russia

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122601527#Comment_122601527

They don’t need to resort to any overt threats

Just imho it renders “but but DA BOMB” type posts silly

Yes Ukrainians don’t have nuclear weapons (big mistake giving them up it turned out) but if Putin does the evil act of exploding a nuclear device or more Ukrainians clearly have the technology to render large parts of Russia uninhabitable with existing homegrown tech they have

And that’a before we get to what NATO or Chinese would do in such a situation

So this war will most likely remain conventional

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122601498#Comment_122601498

Would be great to see a US admin. have courage to tackle Netanyahu, he (and Israel's behaviour under his govt.) are a source of chaos in the ME just as much as Iran is IMO.

Just another wannabe tyrant, constrained a bit [compared to Putin or Khamenei] by the pre existing systems of a democracy but able to do a lot of damage.

Netanyahu has (or had until quite recently!) no problems with Putin, or the Russian conquest and genocide of Ukraine.

Israel has not helped Ukraine much at all (not much aid, no military help, no economic sanctions on Russia post Feb 2022). It has also blocked others from supplying weapons on 2 occasions that I have read of:

• Spike anti-tank missiles that Germany wanted to send to Ukraine (designed/coproduced with israel), and;
• Hawk air defence missiles/systems (in stocks that the US supplied to Israel, and asked for back, to send on to Ukraine).

RGARDINR

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122601268#Comment_122601268

I think sky news was saying its the quantity that was given as they can use these Iranian ballistic missiles more for short range attacks in eastern and central Ukraine as their range isnt huge and use the more advanced longer range Russian ballistic missiles on targets in western Ukraine.