Russia-Ukraine War

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122253559#Comment_122253559

You love to see it.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122253496#Comment_122253496

The Nazis had a degree of tactical nous to start off with, prioritising mobile armour to outmaneuver and overwhelm the enemy.

On the battlefield, the Russians have not shown the same kind of tactical sophistication. Even after you talk about the handful of things they've come up with in two years, they've still very much relied on bloody meat assaults to slowly capture a couple of settlements.

They've shown no ability to rapidly advance in the face of an organised enemy. None. Nada. Zero. They cannot afford to throw men at the meat grinder indefinitely, considering they also need to keep some at home to still run their country. Their only hopes of having a go at NATO in the conventional sense is either with nukes (which will get them killed also) or standing behind waves of Chinese soldiers.

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122253717#Comment_122253717

yes they did but there’s a point that should not be dismissed

Will Russia lose in a war with west, yes

Will it lead to thousands and millions innocent people to die (and be raped, murdered and all that good stuff Russians do) before the cavalry arrives (assuming it does with Trump, not a given), yes

Putin could be trying to drag China into his world war, he might not be Hitler but Mussolini in this story yet

zerosquared

Anyways, more sanctions

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4718008-us-sanctions-russia-war-economy/

https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1801142962484588693

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1801151035722932499

20silkcut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122253746#Comment_122253746

The allies were still hoping to get Mussolini on their side as late as 1940.

aidanodr

Decline .. a bit more than that?

https://twitter.com/pipia_gigi/status/1801189239322788231

aidanodr

Reports are circulating that Rosbank and Gazprombank’s websites are down and that the Moscow Exchange is preventing people from logging in after yesterday’s announcement of additional sanctions from the U.S.

Rosbank is currently offering to buy U.S dollars for 52.8 rubles and sell them for 132.4 rubles, indicating a significant supply issue.

https://twitter.com/JamesPower91/status/1801184046992503021

aidanodr

Anyway - re this Collapse news. Putin & Co will no doubt engineer something. Mention they are prepared for this blah blah. Start the printing presses. Do a comical ally with nothing to see here folks as is the case in general in Russia if something goes wrong. Truth is the first victim

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122253868#Comment_122253868

I dunno I kinda feel sorry (not) for all them paid trolls and those Russian soldiers who earned a bit in Ukraine and escaped by getting wounded and then were patting themself on back for earning a couple of roubles planning their retirement in Crimea

Only for said rouble to become increasingly worthless

keeponhurling

The majority of Russians are very poor already, even before the war.

So they see little impact of any of these sanctions and economic woes.

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122253952#Comment_122253952

It's never really been about the majority of ordinary, poor Russians. They're outside the elite. Outside the bubble of indulged Russians who buy high-end 'Western' clothes, cars, jewellery, holiday in Italy, France, educate their kids in expensive schools etc. They're reliant on internal media much more so than the upper middle class Muscovites who know what's going on but also know that they're on the pigs back, so why rock the boat. They're exactly the sort of people who need to start feeling the pain of Putin's folly - if they can escape conscription at the expense of the ordinary poor 'Russians', then they can at least start to feel the boot on their neck economically.

aidanodr

Im not a finance guru at all .. so a Q.

What is it about this new tranche of U.S. sanctions vs previous sanctions in general that has forced Moscow Exchange to suspend trading in dollars, euros & cause possible runs? If this is the reaction in Russia WHY havent these kind of sanctions been used alot sooner? Is it a timing type of thing? Other things needed to be in place for these sanctions to be effective? What type of "deadly" sanctions are these?

EDIT: AHA, found out:

"A new tranche of U.S. sanctions against Russian financial institutions forcibly suspended trading of Dollar & Euro on Moscow Exchange.

Companies, Banks & investors can’t trade Dollar or Euro via a central exchange. These entities will be forced to trade OTC."

So the Q still needs answering. Why so late with these very effective sanctions? Why not way sooner?

keeponhurling

My understanding is that the Russian financial system has been sanctioned as far as possible already.

These are secondary sanctions, tightening on other backdoor methods via third countries

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122254056#Comment_122254056

The Russian stock exchange was directly targeted in last round of sanctions

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-12/moscow-exchange-halts-dollar-euro-trading-on-new-us-sanctions

they literally can’t get dollars/euros etc

and more sanctions were announced since as I posted higher up this time going after Russian IT industry directly and Russian banks and their offices outside of Russia

One of the results is that there is no longer an official exchange rate, there will either be what black market says it is (real rate) and what Kremlin will say it is (imaginary rate) which no one will actually be able to avail of

aidanodr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122254083#Comment_122254083

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122254085#Comment_122254085

Would i be right in saying that these new sanctions secondary or whatever seem to be having an IMMEDIATE & visible impact vs all other past sanctions? So is the answer to my Q - Its a timing thing, other sanctions needed to be in place first?

aidanodr

As to what these new visibly EFFECTIVE sanctions are:

"A new tranche of U.S. sanctions against Russian financial institutions forcibly suspended trading of Dollar & Euro on Moscow Exchange.

Companies, Banks & investors can’t trade Dollar or Euro via a central exchange. These entities will be forced to trade OTC."

And this is an interesting tweet showing the big falls

https://twitter.com/Microinteracti1/status/1801197809594409074

aidanodr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122253868#Comment_122253868

As I mentioned earlier - "Putin & Co will no doubt engineer something. Mention they are prepared for this blah blah." - This it?

https://twitter.com/AndrewW66619812/status/1801203509645168907

zerosquared

Could this been done two years ago, yes

Why wasn’t it done? That’s a good question I hope journalists hound the Biden administration on why it took so long to get here and why more is not being done!

It seems some time in December the Biden administration had enough of all the loopholes and started going after the financial industry directly, that’s about time Chinese, Turkish, Cypriot, UAE etc banks started dropping Russian customers

Now imho all of these sanctions still don’t go far enough as all they do is target individuals and companies (the list is very very long now) instead of a blanket ban on all Russians and everyone even remotely connected to Russia

So there will remain banks in questionable places that still facilitate Russian criminals, but maybe that’s the aim here, funnel the Russians to use a small number of dodgy banks where the CIA can overview all the transactions 😄

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122253952#Comment_122253952

Quite likely and they'll get by. But it's long past time the comfortable Russian middle & professional classes in Moscow and other cities, started to feel the heat big time. They need to understand they are despised pariahs.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122252922#Comment_122252922

Yes, but how long is "Long"? Currently Putin is burning through the national reserves at an incredible rate, and when that fizzles out what happens? Will China, Iran and NK advance unlimited lines of credit to Putin? Thats something that I doubt very much, considering that that "Unlimited Support" does not mean unlimited financial support. Those "3 Friends" are currently taking Putin for every cent they can.

zerosquared

Seems it’s starting to dawn on “some” Russians that being stupid is counterproductive to their aims

https://twitter.com/NatalkaKyiv/status/1801129276651028764

aidanodr

Hammering more nails into the Russia Fed coffin - UK has joined US with these visibly EFFECTIVE sanctions:

https://twitter.com/jason_corcoran/status/1801217417625915548

aidanodr

And RE CHINA in all this:

Go Yuan: Russian subsidiaries of Chinese banks have now suspended payments in dollars and euros

The subsidiaries of Chinese banks in Russia have suspended foreign trade settlements in dollars and euros due to US sanctions against the Moscow Exchange, Reuters writes.

https://x.com/jason_corcoran/status/1801217200642007286

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122254147#Comment_122254147

That’s a shockingly terrible response by Russian propagandists seems they are in so much panic they haven’t thought through what messages like this would translate to Russian investors (or anyone foolish to have invested in Russia)

“So are they telling us the market should only be half of what it is?”

Imagine if the FED chairman or treasury secretary came out and said “everything is fine half our trade is with Europe, that’s a natural bottom right there to the market”

I fully expect @brickster69 to come along now and try to explain how this is the death of the euro dollar system 😂

Brief_Lives

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122253675#Comment_122253675

so this is the kind of thing we want to see…

aidanodr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122254467#Comment_122254467

@zerosquared Comical Peskov ..

Russia's Central Bank spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that the bank can ensure market stability, despite the US sanctions against the Moscow Exchange (MOEX). The MOEX has announced a halt in US dollar and euro trading starting June 13. The bank has stated that foreign exchange business in these currencies will continue on the over-the-counter market. Peskov emphasized that the bank is a mega-regulator and is considering actions that best serve its interests. Moscow is considering response measures accordingly.

https://x.com/Fahadali682521/status/1801220273879802360

Bobson Dugnutt

I’d say that malcontent Chay Bowes is regretting his decision to up sticks to Moscow.

aidanodr

Im still just perplexed, puzzled and amazed it took this long to enact these, what appear to be, very visible and effective sanctions. This should have happened back in 2022 or 2023?

My 2 cents - i reckon many countries in the world INC US, UK, maybe EU did not want to see an early collapse of Russia Fed economy as they were not yet prepared for the possible blowback. Maybe now they are more insulated/divested and hence pulled the trigger.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/13/investing/us-russia-sanctions-dollar-euro-trading/

keeponhurling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122254499#Comment_122254499

Except the bridge in Crimea is much much wider

ToweringPerformance

Any day the Russian economy will collapse now.

randomuser02125

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122254647#Comment_122254647

The only reasoned opinion I have seen on this site that suggests an implosion of the Russian economy, does so based on Russia being unable to afford this war in the long run if the West keeps supporting Ukraine. Now, why does today's good news about the Russian economy seem to bother you so much?

saabsaab

Yes the sanctions aren't working! For Russia that is.

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122254692#Comment_122254692

I suspect that post might not age well and when they are back to bartering with vodka bottles* we will still have posts saying “see tis nothing but a scratch”

**

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/education/177421.stm

look how happy they used to be on on payday before going back to secondary job in the prostitution industry to earn some “hard” currency

https://twitter.com/Factsofw0rld/status/1725808060273147913

Make Russia Great again, again

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122254647#Comment_122254647

That's not how sanctions work. They're aimed at smothering productive growth in the sanctioned nation. Russia's on a war footing and growth has pivoted to a war economy. That's far more immune to obvious sanction effects, but on the other hand isn't sustainable and doesn't have the wider trickle down of a general economy.

But let's imagine Russia wins, say takes the eastern part of Ukraine up to the Dnieper. OK, but that's when their troubles get worse. They'll inherit a wasteland covered in munitions(and corpses) with much of the infrastructure destroyed. Even if they suffer zero partisan action in the conquered territories(unlikely), the cost of clean up, never mind rebuilding will be truly astronomical. Costs that Russia would have struggled to pony up before the war and sanctions, damn near impossible now. And if they did win even more sanctions would be brought to bear.

If they lose they'd likely be hit with reparations, but good luck getting that out of them. But again their economy, an economy that peaked circa 2013, would still be screwed with far few customers overall. Never mind the tens of thousands dead and injured and returning troops with PTSD.

This is a lose/lose situation for Russia and it was the second Putin invaded and miscalculated the response.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122254647#Comment_122254647

Unfortunately it's unlikely to collapse as such. Even North Korea hasn't collapsed. Dictatorships can run on fumes for a long time.

The Russians are masters in circumventing sanctions and have turned heavily to China/India/etc, which has kept their economy ticking along and even some "relative progress", but in the long term they have had to sideline infrastructure projects to pay for a very expensive war, and on top of that foreign intermediaries and countries are getting more and more cautious about accepting business with them. It's a slow hurt.

doyle55

Ukrainian hackers have hacked Russian TV and played Swan Lake with Happy Last Day of Russia across the screen.

They also showed all of Russia's military losses since the start of the war.

https://twitter.com/zhuk67/status/1801065679334125762

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122253952#Comment_122253952

They will be aware of it by having to go to the black market for many things that they used to get via official channels up to now. And with the rise in the black market, the criminal classes will get even richer and more powerful. If you already considered Russia to be a mafia state, buckle up.

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122254777#Comment_122254777

The Russian populace is VERY different to the NK populace. The geographical spread of Russia is VERY different to that of NK. And the socio-economic status of the two countries at the relevant points in time - now versus the 1950s/ 60s (bearing in mind the advance in technology and global communication platforms and comparative difficulty Putin would have in trying to brainwash and subjugate an entire population) is VERY different.

There's almost no point in trying to make a comparison.

Jinglejangle69

Russia trying to act hard with the nuclear submarine off the US coast.

Has this prompted Biden to take proper action?

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122255143#Comment_122255143

Leave them to it, their submarines have a tendency to sink like their ships

There’s a very deep ocean trench around them parts too

kowloon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122255167#Comment_122255167

I'm sure their problems keeping the things safe and well maintained have abated in the time since the war started.

I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122255143#Comment_122255143

Russians do their Cuban sub run every year it's nothing new

Brief_Lives

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122255429#Comment_122255429

yea, they are surrounded by 4 cloaked Romulan American subs aswell.

zerosquared

The probable solution to latest self inflicted Russian crisis seems to be

… become a colony of China

https://twitter.com/aborealis940/status/1801214574927958326

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122255092#Comment_122255092

Indeed, but it's not a comparison as such, just to demonstrate that regimes can survive harsh economic conditions. In such circumstances it can increase their grip on power, which is ultimately their primary concern.

The Russian economy could completely go down the toilet in the next e.g. decade and I wouldn't be surprised to see Putin in power all the way through. That said it would become progressively harder and much more difficult to finance such a war.

wassie

Putin just became more bitch'd to Xi.

XsApollo

good news the last day , hopefully it all goes down the sh*tter for them.

We might get more of this now.

https://youtu.be/2Zq_0gamL5Y?si=ljZEdz_qj_FijW6d

Brussels Sprout

Mick Wallace may very well be about to lose his seat. It's all going to come down to Green Party transfers. He needs to breech a 2k vote gap or he's done.

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122248175#Comment_122248175

For sure. I read an interview with Lafontaine recently in which he pretty much said American imperialism and NATO are fully to blame for the war in Ukraine, not Russia. Wagenknecht has obviously absorbed all that from their marriage at least.

There's some big shot American historian, I forget his name but Putin fans wheel him out a lot too, he says the same nonsense.

What can you even say to these people? Waste of breath

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122253952#Comment_122253952

They sure do, and 100% more so than Putin and his cronies, who are insulated in so far as everyday living is concerned. Anyone on fixed incomes, pensioners especially, but also people who would have what were considered good salaries, until inflation and a drop in value of the Ruble affected those people. No, like always, it's the people at the bottom of the pyramid who pay the price for any shenanigans at the upper levels. Unfortunately, these people are also unlikely to mount a serious challenge to Putin. That will have to come from one or more of the powerful Silovicki.