Russia-Ukraine War

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122316592#Comment_122316592

No, I do mean basic unguided 155mm shells.

Don't get me wrong, there's a very specific and critical place for MLRS/HIMARS vehicles, and almost exclusively those vehicles at Corps level (Where aircraft also become more important), and but the majority of the work at division and below is done by good, old fashioned unguided tube artillery with rockets mainly in the counter-battery or HPT role. Trust me on this.

PopePalpatine

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122319167#Comment_122319167

BuT wHy DoEsN't UkRaInE wAnT pEaCe?

TheValeyard

Hard to confirm since we cannot trust anything from Russian sources,

But looks like the Russians had a very successful hit on an armoured supply train

Im surprised like everyone else that Russia hit a military target and not a civilian apartment

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1807154178633994664

Say my name

Tatarstan's rate of reported dead in Ukraine went up 18% for the six months of 2024 above 2022 and 2023 combined 24 month total. The reason given is as a consequence of the state being given the BRICS summit and the "Future Games".

So basically the government of Tatarstan was told send more men to Ukraine and then you can have these goodies. Up to that the Tatarstan reported dead was well below neighbouring states. They say this decision was partially so that numbers killed would be evened somewhat not to cause region instability.

http://tverezo.info/post/191823

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122319435#Comment_122319435

I do trust you, but aI suppose a better question is if the senior generals also have the same view?

If so, then their failure to keep pace with artillery shell production is deeply worrying.

However, its also possible that the numbers have shifted on the cost benefit. If a basic artillery shell costs $1,000 and an excalibur costs $25,000, the question is whether 25 unguided shells or 1 excalibur is more useful. With basic artillery shells becoming more expensive and the potential for economies of scale with the more advanced system, the dial ticks more towards guided munitions. Add in the cost of primer and reduced barrell wear, less training and logistics needed, and guided munitions make a lot more sense.

Forbes view on Ukrainian counter battery fire:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/09/18/artillery-duels-are-a-thing-of-the-past-as-ukrainian-and-russian-gunners-hunt-each-other-at-long-range/

Perhaps a bit sensational, but the key point being that unguided artillery shells are not perceieved as being sufficiently useful by NATO to invest heavily in them vs precision fires.

This is based on the ochams razor view that if you exclude the possibility that NATO are incompetent, stupid or remiss in their duties, the obvious reason for not producing massive amounts of unguided 155 is that it wont be as useful as large amounts of guided munitions.

By contrast, for example, the utility of prepared fixed defensive positions has been proven in Ukraine, and the Baltics consider it worth heavily investing in them.

Say my name

In Siberia, Vladimir Putin has given the green light for gold mining in previously pristine land where the native people practised farming, wild food gathering, wild animal hunting and reindeer farming. Now the prospectors have the backing of Putin. Who are using this "roof" to accuse the locals of being foreign agents. Being accused of being a foreign agent is a way the kremlin use since the Ukrainian war to jail and move people to penal colonies.

http://sibreal.org/a/kak-v-sibiri-malochislennye-narody-boryutsya-s-zolotodobytchikami/33014088.html

Raoul Duke III

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122318542#Comment_122318542

There's a world of difference between contrarianism and just plain trolling.

Say my name

In a move to strengthen relations and to lead to an understanding on how to turn russian citizens more like north korean citizens. The first group of Russian children are being sent to a North Korean institutional children's camp.

http://twitter.com/nakolputina/status/1807322594254668075

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122321258#Comment_122321258

I can't speak for most NATO nations in terms of doctrine approved by the senior generals, only the US, UK and French (At least, French as of three years ago). The French are a bit different in the Division Deep, but when it comes to tube artillery, the differences are pretty small. When it comes to ammunition supply, I can't speak to any but the US, and the US position is that it has 'enough for its needs'. (i.e. a set of war stocks it does not dip into, even when giving to the Ukrainians. Score one for excess capacity being purchased by the US even if the US itself doesn't actually need it, Javelin being an excellent case in point).

The 'change' in artillery doctrine referred to by the article is not a change from the US and UK perspective. We can do counter-battery, we have the radars and will service any targets so detected, but it's not our preferred way of doing business for two reasons. Firstly, modern artillery can 'shoot and scoot' pretty damned quickly, target decay is a real thing resulting in wasted rounds. We'll still shoot in case we get lucky, or in case the artillery we're shooting at is an older type (such as towed). Secondly, in order for us to get a hit on their locations in counterbattery, it means we've let them shoot at our guys first. Not a preferred course of action. Instead, we like to see first, shoot first. The British, in particular, seem very good at this; in the US we prefer a more brute force approach, but we're the US, we can afford to do it. You will recall I had mentioned in my previous post that rockets have a place in counter-battery. Enter, amongst other artillery-hunting assets in the division, the M30A2 GMLRS, a precision area effect rocket round. We don't want to hit individual targets, we go for the battery, and we don't want to be worried about a lack of calibration if the detector is a dozen meters off (or if the rocket's navigation system is jammed). A number of targets will take the M31 unitary round (or ATACMS at higher levels), but not normally artillery targets.

That leaves a whole host of other work to be done, and that's what is mainly the purview of tube artillery. Of six artillery battalions available to a typical deployed US division, five of them are tube, one is rocket. Think of all the targets a division is going to work before the brigades make contact, how many of them are not artillery 20+ km behind the forward line of troops, and how many are truly suited for a precision targeting process instead of a battery six airburst. And then when the brigades do make contact, their artillery (one of the five division tube battalions normally assigned to support each brigade) are not hanging around to worry about ten-digit-grids being hammered out with lead calculations for every moving tank and infantryman they are engaging. You want to shoot a point target, use a guided round. If you're shooting a mechanised infantry company, use basic munitions.

zv2

Lights out in Belgorod, lol

https://twitter.com/WorldCrisi19621/status/1807703115551953105

Say my name

Three Jehovahs's Witnesses have been sentenced to incarceration in prison in Russia for being extremists and members of an extremist organisation. The court in Novocherkassk sentenced the three from 6 years and six months to 2 years and three months. In 2017 the Supreme court in Russia declared Jehovah's Witnesses as extremist and they had the power to liquidate those as a legal entity.

http://kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/401364

SoapMcTavish

Same as the original Nazis did ...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persecution_of_Jehovah%27s_Witnesses_in_Nazi_Germany

.Donegal.

I get ukraines need for manpower but disappointed they’re going to offer clemency to murderers,albeit singular murderers. We see how well that worked out in despotic Russia. Only this is worse as they’ll have free reign to go wherever they want in Europe including here.

Ukrainian convicts are being offered their freedom in exchange for their service in the war against Russian invaders - including murderers. Those convicted of rape, sexual assault, murdering two or more people, or crimes against Ukraine's national security aren't eligible

Say my name

The west got lazy. And then started making apologies for countries that wouldn't be classed as western. So much so that practices and policies that wouldn't be acceptable in western societies began to be seen as acceptable to western society.

The tail wags the dog.

http://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1807778501065392555

When do we start to see the dictatorships and crackdowns on freedoms and the brutality of Russia and China being imposed in Ireland, UK, western europe? Because it sure as hell looks like these are just accepted now as normal behaviour. Wallace and Daly was just the start. Seems to be drip feeding into western brains whilst telling ourselves "it's for peace".

Dubh Geannain

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122326720#Comment_122326720

Sure Tiktok is just a bit of harmless fun 😏

It starts with the apologists and continues with anti-establishment cranks* and then the fencesitters whose common retort is "who's to say what the truth is".

*I'd consider myself anti-establishment to a certain degree which really limits my voting options greatly as there is very very little substance behind the loudest of the voices in that arena (my european first preference candidate got 500 votes 😂) . However, I'd worry how some carefully selected and trained agents could easily catch the attention of non-mainstream voters. Needless to say I was relieved that Daly and Wallace didn't get back in but they still got more votes than I would be comfortable with.

zv2

Lots of smoke in Crimea

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1807818056392974589

keeponhurling

why are Ukraine not hitting other areas with the same ferocity they hit Crimea ?

I doubt most of the attacks are coming from Crimea

TheValeyard

UAF caught out again. Think this is the 3rd or 4th time it's happened.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1807841622358462739

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122327305#Comment_122327305

They are hitting other places on a daily occurance but you don't really hear it. The oil facilities are still being hit in different parts of Russia. It's more in the line on Russian local news where it's reported.

Hande hoche!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122327331#Comment_122327331

It's going to happen at some stage with a F16. They will then spam it ad nauseam.

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122326720#Comment_122326720

Is it really a surprise to anyone? The UN is useless because 5 countries have a veto. At least some(maybe all) wouldn’t be a member if they were to lose that veto. So Russia gets away with its evil acts and nothing will ever change.

We have to be frank as well, a lot of non western countries have changed their mindset recently as well when it comes to the west, whether people want to recognise that or not is up to them but it’s because of America constantly using its veto at the UN. They see it as a double standard and hypocrisy, the US rightfully condemning and preaching about the brutality and evil of Russia while enabling and protecting the Israelis in Gaza in all they do.

In conclusion the scum Russian regime will continue to get away with whatever it does at the UN and non western countries care less than before thanks to Americas actions over recent months. They have damaged the wests image.

RGARDINR

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122327331#Comment_122327331

Saw that video. Anymore about that Ukraine train Russia hit that you posted yesterday?

TheValeyard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122327612#Comment_122327612

Conflicting reports, but some of the more trusted twitter accounts claiming materials and vehicles on four carriages were destroyed, but other carriages were salvageable.

At least the UAF have been hitting the Russians hard today.

RGARDINR

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122327716#Comment_122327716

Well least that's good and not everything was destroyed.

Dubh Geannain

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122326720#Comment_122326720

Then there's this only today.

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1807783706368614780?t=TqrXkk5cg40_S_U5kRp0hA&s=19

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122327842#Comment_122327842

May as well rename the US New Hungary or something like that at this point.

Say my name

Politicians in Russia added themselves as friends to a fake online account that was publishing online, Nazi poems from the 30' and 40's with just a few words changed to the Russian forces. It was started by journalists as a joke to see who would add the account as their friend. Fairly successful endeavour. It was styled as a Z poet account.

http://twitter.com/sotanews/status/1806690252842537137

Field east

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122327842#Comment_122327842

what exact date was Trump president up to? Was it Jan 6 th 2022 or what?

Dubh Geannain

BRUSSELS — EU countries today approved a first tranche of up to €1.4 billion in military aid for Ukraine coming from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets, according to four diplomats.

The money is channeled to Ukraine through the Ukraine Assistance Fund (UAF), but payments have been blocked by Hungary.

However, the Council's legal service argued that Budapest cannot stop these payments because it abstained in the vote earlier this year creating the UAF. The reason allowing the work-around is that the funds do not come from EU taxpayers, EU officials said.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-approves-military-aid-ukraine-russian-frozen-assets/

Dubh Geannain

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122328371#Comment_122328371

This is what's going to be argued out in lower courts apparently thus delaying any trials until after the November elections.

threeball

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122328330#Comment_122328330

Its extremely dangerous when the most powerful country in the world is heading toward dictatorship at a rate of knots. There seems to be very little checks and balances to counter the power of a president who decides to go rogue. We could be heading for a very bumpy decade.

Thelonious Monk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122328994#Comment_122328994

take a look at that project 2025 mullarkey, it's proper handsmaid's tale stuff. what's happening in france is great news for russia too, you have to hand it to them, euro and us politics are falling into place for them but at least they're getting pretty exhausted militarily by this ukraine war.

threeball

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122329172#Comment_122329172

I came across it and its mental yet extremely smart and subversive. This time they have all the pawns in place and they will dismantle the establishment from the inside. They're like a cancer but they won't only affect the US. They're going to have devasting effects all over the globe, from foreign policy to climate change. Humanity is heading for a cliff and people in the States are more preoccupied with aesthetics and which President makes them laugh more. I'd vote for a head of cabbage before I'd vote for Trump.

TheValeyard

This is new

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1808071490484543863

TheValeyard

Think at this stage there is a lot of evidence that backs this up

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1808073967468437799

Jinglejangle69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122329517#Comment_122329517

What’s the end game though?

Try retake Crimea?

Steviemak7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122329619#Comment_122329619

If they can take Crimea they'll have a massive negotiating chip for peace talks

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122329324#Comment_122329324

He's either playing the long game as a potential mediator, or he's not the sharpest crayon in the pack

TheValeyard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122329775#Comment_122329775

I'd wager he is passing on a message from Putin. Probably backroom negotiations.

bilbot79

They should have started digging a tunnel to Crimea on Day 1

keeponhurling

I wonder which Ukraine would prefer if they had to choose - return of Crimea, or the occupied areas of Donbas/Eastern Ukraine ?

Probably both would have a significant Russian population trying to undermine the State

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122329809#Comment_122329809

Does he hold the presidency of EU?Would that meeting just come with the territory?

Is the conversation with Zelensky available "semi publicly"? (are there others in the room?It is not just a handshake ,is it?)

threeball

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122329850#Comment_122329850

Donbass has most of the resources but Crimea leaves the Russian navy (what's left of it) right on their doorstep. Long term Donbas is more lucrative, short term Crimea is more beneficial.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122329850#Comment_122329850

The full return of Donbas/Eastern Ukraine. Then a slow strangulation of Russian control over Crimea, make it untenable.

Jinglejangle69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122329736#Comment_122329736

How do they get to Crimea though?

Markcheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122327830#Comment_122327830

Trains are long and narrow,and shrapnel and debris tends to bounce off armoured vehicles ,as such an odd choice for an expensive ballistic missile , Even if it has a huge payload ,

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122329736#Comment_122329736

IIIIIIIIIFFFFFFFF (massive if there) they retake Crimea, they won't need peace talks. Losing Crimea means Putin will be gone and they can either ask the Russians to leave the Donbas or make them leave. Milom ili silom.

victor8600

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122330007#Comment_122330007

What Ukraine is doing already is making it impossible for the Russian fleet to blockade Odessa. This is important for Ukrainian exports via the Black sea.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122330007#Comment_122330007

Hard to imagine a scenario this year or next where Crimea is retaken.

jonnreeks

Is it true that Ukraine is still not able to attack Russian airfields that hold the planes that conduct missile strikes and drop the glide bombs?