Russia-Ukraine War

RGARDINR

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122330001#Comment_122330001

Yeah true I just never thought of it with the armoured trains.

Hande hoche!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122330543#Comment_122330543

Seemingly particular airfields are not permitted to be attacked by US supplied missiles. Not sure about the French/Italian/British supplied arms.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122329850#Comment_122329850

Then let the significant Russian population choose where they want to stay. Personally, I'd say that choosing between Zelenskys Ukraine and what's left of Putin's Russia economically would be a no brainer, but when you think about the horrors Putin inflicted on Ukrainians, I don't think that they will be very welcome.

Markcheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122330848#Comment_122330848

Theres russian speakers , theres ethnic russians , theres relatively recent moved from russia (a generation or 2 ) , and then there are those who see themselves as russian some arrived in the last decade , i assume most of the latter will feic off back to russia ,

Sleepy

I doubt the latter would be given the choice. TBH, I doubt they'll even have long enough to be deported officially, their Ukrainian neighbours will run them out pretty quickly once the AFU arrive in force. (I'm picturing the scenes from the liberation of Eindhoven from Band of Brothers)

zv2

….

TheValeyard

This fcuking idiot is at it again

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1808175088459481205

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122328994#Comment_122328994

Well at this point what is left of democracy in the US is on life support now after yesterdays power grab by the authoritarians on the court. What is especially scary is lets say in a super optimistic scenario the authoritarian Republicans and wannabe dictator Trump are blocked in November it doesn't really matter much anymore as the Democrats will do nothing to over turn what has just been done so its really just a matter of time and when not if the authoritarians seize power in the US and turn that country into another Hungary.

keeponhurling

It would be nice to think that Russia seriously consider peace, and Orban is the messenger. Maybe Putin is starting to see that it is unwinnable and will start to destabilise other parts of Russia.

At a certain point surely all the loss of foreign reserves, loss of manpower, economic decline, sanctions, lack of progress etc. might start to bite.

But probably that's wishful thinking. And difficult to see the "off ramp" for Putin.

Pressure in the form of sanctions also needs to be ramped up on China. Make it clear that they are part of the problem. It is not acceptable to help kill Europeans and still be considered a "friend".

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122333533#Comment_122333533

If Russian 'seriously' considers peace, they don't need to send Orban the Toad to Kiev. They just need to turn around and gtfo Dodge.

Sleepy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122331542#Comment_122331542

Saw an interesting tweet on this yesterday:

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1807796033285451940

TheValeyard

Some good news at least, bit of bad news in the south with Russian advancements but I'm sure the UAF will find a solution

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1808472281737310501

junkyarddog

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1808415544267214861

Coincidence?

RGARDINR

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334601#Comment_122334601

Lack of volunteers for Ukraine is the biggest issue for them at the moment. That's the single biggest issue that there facing.

I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-russian-air-strike-kills-five-in-dnipro-ukraine-says/

They do this while sending Orban to plead for peace. russia is a terrorist cesspit.

https://streamable.com/r37twv

threeball

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334715#Comment_122334715

Donnie will lose his shít that his plane was smaller.

What are Russian planes doing in the US anyhow? Bit of a mockery of sanctions and no fly zones if they can fly planes all the way to the US.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122333533#Comment_122333533

It's actually India that's buying the most Russia oil, yet I don't understand why India doesn't get anywhere the same reproachment in the west that is heaped upon China.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122335280#Comment_122335280

India is not blameless, but China is an autocracy working in line with and supporting Russia - who are killing Europeans right now.

China has significant clout to end this war but they refuse because to put it bluntly Russia attacking Europe is in their interests.

They deserve a hell of a lot more criticism than they are currently receiving, but since they are so economically important they get away with a lot of ****.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122335341#Comment_122335341

Yet China has suspended banking links with Russia, but India has not.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122335347#Comment_122335347

"But, but India" is not addressing the issue

Russia is much more dependent on China. Much more. So much so that some leaders have expressed a belief that Beijing could end the war if they so desired. This might be a difficult pill to swallow, but it sure looks like China doesn't want this war to end, on the contrary.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122335373#Comment_122335373

Dependent on China for golf buggies and scamblers as they deplete their soviet stock?

From a trade point of view Putin being gone would make Europe-China rail transport far easier, especially important with Trump potentially returning to sabre rattle.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122335476#Comment_122335476

China is now Russia's number one trade partner.

An estimated 70% to 90% of components in the Russian military are Western made. China doesn't (openly) send military hardware to Russia, but it does supply them with these critical components (jet parts, navigation aids, semiconductors, etc all conveniently dual-use). All of which are critical to Russia's war effort. Russia's war on Europe. Where presumably most of us live.

riffmongous

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122333533#Comment_122333533

The weird thing is that from the outside Russia has never looked more stable, up until the attacks in Dagestan last week there's been almost no signs of insurrection or dissent since the Wagner run on Moscow, which itself was an outlier.

Politically, Navalny is dead and there's no sign of a replacement figure, the Far East and Amur have gone totally silent while a few years ago there was quite a bit of political unrest.

Chechnya is silent, which is a huge surprise, and other than the recent Dagestan attacks which were Islamist rather than sovereignty based the Caucasus seems quieter than any other point since the 80s.

Externally Georgia is showing no interest in taking advantage of the Russian military weakness, which I was sure they would. If anything they are moving closer to Russia.

Of course there could be movement behind the scenes, and the whole system a house of cards, (if Kadryov truly is terminally ill as reported something might happen) but outwardly it seems quite stable right now. Maybe it's the result of the two decades of repression or the exodus of dissenters at the start of the War.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122335568#Comment_122335568

Europe exports food and equipment to russia too which could be construed to aid their invasion.

Your paranoia is Putinesque.

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334224#Comment_122334224

That is how insane the decision they made truly is.

Sleepy

Yep. Were I in Biden's shoes I'd have responded to that judgement by ordering SEAL teams to assassinate Trump, his patsies on the SCOTUS and most of the MAGA wing of the Democrats. Luckily Joe Biden seems to have higher morals than me.

And of course, I'd have also donated a squadron of F35s to Ukraine. ;)

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122335582#Comment_122335582

Calm down there. This is not an attack on whatever China persecution complex that is - I'm simply pointing out the facts.

China's trade is now so large and predominant with Russia, and Russia is so dependent on the parts it's providing - that many analysts have pointed out, quite obviously, there is a huge imbalance there.

It's not an "equal" partnership. China has almost full access to the West whereas Russia pretty much doesn't. Russia's existing unsanctioned trade with Europe are down to fumes and it's energy exports to Europe (a few outliers aside) are steadily going the way of the Dodo. Pretty impressive considering just over two years ago we were massively reliant on Russia for our energy (which kept flowing evenly during the height of the Cold War).

Who knows, maybe one day Xi Jinping will tire of his new vassal and issue orders to wind up their war.

zv2

After WW2 a lot of British children grew up with no father. This led to a lot of delinquency and crime. So after this war, Russian children…

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122336240#Comment_122336240

Will be raised communally north Korean style and see whichever dictator for life of Russia is as their father.

We'll also see the proposed childless tax where a tax has to be payed if single men or women refuse to provide drone children to the regime.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122335476#Comment_122335476

No, I think their relationship with Russia is much more important to Xi and the CCP than trade with Europe (or improvements to that in unlikely events Putin were somehow gone from the scene in future, and Russia-Europe relations got better).

They are Russia's enabler here imo + a kind of silent partner in the background that help keep them fighting in Ukraine. They took careful note of the US "red line" set early in the war, and have slowly stepped right up to it and edged past it in places with what they are doing, as the war has dragged on. I expect that will get worse not better, esp. if it looks like Ukraine is having successes, also perhaps if they think that US "red line" is rhetorical (quite possible) and nothing will actually happen if they up their aid to Russia significantly.

Lots of their own industrial stuff and technology in amounts the Russians cannot now get as easily/cheaply via sanctions busting. An open line on pretty much anything and everything the Russian war machine needs to keep firing bar actual put-together ready to use weapons. I also find it hard to believe a paranoid dictator like Kim Jong Un would be emptying out the artillery and missile stockpiles of NK for Russia's war unless Xi told him China was good for it all, and would rapidly backfill it. So that support to Russia is partly at their door as well.

China doesn't need you to go to bat for them here. They are a horror-show dystopia. They have lots of talented and committed people whose job it is to keep the West's beak out of their firewalled internet/social media/app ecosystem and sow confusion + spew fud and posion over on the "free" side of the internet. They don't need more people doing it for nothing.

TheValeyard

Kursk this evening

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1808598849709068336

TheValeyard

This was needed

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1808590299129917550

TheValeyard

More confirmation of the situation down south

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1808770171739218044

vswr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122336978#Comment_122336978

MOBILISE THE ANTI WAR PROTESTERS

zv2

Hmmm…

https://twitter.com/VeselijSoldat/status/1808785877298008308

Hande hoche!

It's bizarre that you have the largest European War since WW2 and one of the main "winners" is North Korea.

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122295165#Comment_122295165

No, just an awareness that history isn't a Hollywood movie that always delivers neat endings

Dubh Geannain

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122337653#Comment_122337653

On the good news side Ukrainians have recaptured territory east of Lyman and in the forest south of Kremina.

thomil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122336611#Comment_122336611

I'm going to have to partially disagree with you here. I might have mentioned this before, but China's foreign policy is still massively influenced by the "Century of Humiliation", and one of Beijing's aims since the 1950s has been to never again be in a position where it would be at the risk of being subjugated by foreign powers. This, together with Mao's fanaticism, was one of the driving forces behind the Sino-Soviet split in the 1960s, and is still an active motivation behind Beijing's actions today. So just viewing China's support for Russia's war in Ukraine as a gambit to weaken the west is a bit simplistic as far as I'm concerned.

Their support is equally aimed to weaken Russia and keep them in a state where the Kremlin is more or less dependent on Beijing to keep their nation running. Keep in mind that there have been significant border clashes between those two countries in the past. The PRC government is likely all too aware that a hyper-nationalist government like the Putin regime would sooner or later try to flex its muscles in its far eastern regions and will do their best to keep Russia just weak enough to prevent that. So the current situation of a "forever war" in Eastern Europe that keeps both the West and Russia off-balance is just what the doctor ordered, as far as Beijing is concerned.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122338382#Comment_122338382

The biggest problem with Russia is the same as when the USSR fell, no one wants to invest in a huge land area that spans 9 timezones. As is half of the Russian population lives in the western most 8th of the country. Putin has burned through what was left of the Soviet era military stock so basically Moscow's ability to retain control east of the Urals will be notional after the Putin era.

As is China has land leases in far east Russia for solar and mining, so while a weaker Russia means easier terms for China it makes more sense to keep Russia intact rather than letting it implode entirely.

jmreire

Incorrect dates, post deleted

riffmongous

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122339122#Comment_122339122

That's from Jan 2021 no?

thomil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122338482#Comment_122338482

I get where you're coming from, but I fear that your point falls into a trap I see western commentators on China make again and again. Namely, they see China's foreign policy through a western view point, which is of course understandable. The thing is that China is effectively unlike any other country on this planet. It has been a contiguous empire, more or less within its modern borders, since before the rise of the Roman Republic here in Europe. Unlike pretty much all other founding myths of great empires past and present, China's creation myth is not one of creation but of reunification, which would indicate at a history of empire even beyond the current records. And even when you take into consideration the numerous periods of internal schisms, the warring states period, etc., there was always a continuous tradition of administration & government going back to the mists of time. A country can't step away from several millennia worth of tradition, and even the CCP wasn't able to do so after they took power. Seriously, even Mao's little red book reads at times more like an old imperial text than a communist pamphlet.

As such, China's foreign policy is rooted just as much in the ancient imperial practice of "managing barbarians" as it is in the modern "realpolitik" that we're used to. It's been a while since I read Henry Kissinger's "On China" (Which is a very definite reading recommendation by the way), but as far as memory serves, China has always seen itself as the one real nation on Earth. The concept of Tianxia, roughly translated to "Under Heaven", holds that all of the lands on Earth were appointed to the Chinese Sovereign by divine mandate, with the Tianzi, or "Son of Heaven", or as we would know him, the Emperor of China standing at the center of this world. Concentrically outward from this nadir, you'd have the numerous levels of Chinese bureaucrats within the empire proper, the tributary states and finally the "barbarians". And while everyone who submitted to the "Mandate of Heaven" would be accepted as part of the Chinese worlds, those that remained outside it could never be seen as equals.

This is why, for much of Imperial China, foreign policy as a concept did not exist, because there simply were no other "real" countries. Right up until the fall of the empire in the early 20th century, China's approach to dealing with outside nations was akin to dealing with invaders coming in from the steppes of central Asia:

• First, try to buy them off.
• If that doesn't work, set them against each other
• If this also fails, welcome them in and assimilate them

The latter had worked on numerous occasions as invading nomadic tribes had often been won over by Chinese society and eventually submitted to the Mandate of Heaven, although that concept obviously fell flat on its face once the Western European colonial powers showed up from the 1830s onwards.

Naturally, China's position towards other countries changed and evolved towards the latter years of the 19th century and in the 20th century, and both the Kuomintang and the CCP have taken a much more pragmatic approach to international politics. But as I said earlier, you can't just divorce yourself from several millennia of history and tradition, and for all their pragmatism, in many ways, even the CCP leadership subconsciously continue this tradition. I guess if one wanted to be extreme, you could consider the CCP just the next Imperial Dynasty ruling China, especially given that XI Jinping seems to be leaving behind some of the pragmatism of earlier post-Mao leaders and rekindling the concept of Tianxia.

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122297121#Comment_122297121

They did give up third largest nuclear weapons arsenal, destroyed planes and ran down military to a level where … Ireland out spent them

So yes not only Ukraine was neutral but they self disarmed

Which in hindsight was stupid, but it’s a lesson for others to stay as far away from Russia and their backwards colonial notions

zv2

Another power plant gets heated up

https://twitter.com/WorldCrisi19621/status/1808910847487389700

Avatar in the Post

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122338091#Comment_122338091

Russia is weak now (relatively) with most of the Western world at Ukrainian’s back. Do a deal where Ukraine is back in the Russian orbit would be hell on earth and a an act of treachery by a Ukrainian leaders… but, I don’t expect that.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122339296#Comment_122339296

Yes, you are correct…. I was going by the headline here under:- It was only when I checked it, I saw the date on the bottom of the post.

"Today's #protest in #StPetersburg, #Russia, where protesters blocked Nevsky Prospekt avenue:"

Dohnjoe

Russia has slipped out of the top 10 global economies, now behind Italy, Canada and Brazil.

zv2

Russian ammo/oil burning

https://twitter.com/UaCoins/status/1808944528230940688

Detritus70

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122339428#Comment_122339428

China has probably realised a long time ago that simply viewing all outsiders as ghosts and devils isn't realistic and doesn't work.