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Russia-Ukraine War

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,011 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    He wasn't president in 2014

    He wasn't president in 2022

    This counter-historical stuff is tiring.

    We simply do not know what Trump would have done, or will do.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,269 ✭✭✭✭Sleepy


    @johnnyskeleton is there a reason you're discounting France's nuclear arsenal? I know it's pretty small by comparison to the figures reported for the US or Russia but 300 nuclear warheads would be more than enough to destroy Russia so it's no small threat.

    Unlike the UK arsenal, the French weapons are fully under their control too so transfer of that technology to the likes of Poland wouldn't be outside their control either.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,011 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    If I were Zelensky, I would try buttering up Trump now.

    Talk about ticker tape parades, fireworks, statues, LEGACY! Name a street or a plaza after him, all that jazz, for huge injections of military aid.

    It's all showbiz and appearances for Trump.

    Get Trump to 'sell' older US equipment to Ukraine, which will pay for newer stuff built by American workers for the US military itself. Win-win.

    Play to his ego and self-illusion.

    Its primitive stuff, but it is what it is.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,340 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Was Ukraine invaded in 2014?

    Was Trump President when Russian and Russian backed forces were occupying part of Ukraine?

    Did Trump as President hold up aid to Ukraine for scurrilous partisan goals in an abuse of power?

    If Trump becomes the next President, he will inherit a situation where Russian and Russian backed forces are occupying part of Ukraine.

    The parallels are obvious. So yeah, this 'counter historical' stuff is tiring alright. Does ignoring all the available evidence qualify as 'counter historical stuff' in slogan bingo land?

    And before you reply with, you don't know what he will do for sure, well no one does about anybody. So that's a carte blanche to adopt any position, regardless of foundation or merit.

    You don't know that Putin won't surrender tomorrow and hand himself over to the Hague. However, there is no basis to propose it as a likely possibility.

    But we can make reasonable forecasts based on previous behaviour and available evidence.

    And it is entirely reasonable to propose that the overwhelming likelihood is that a Trump win means cutting off of support to Ukraine.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,011 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Was Ukraine invaded in 2014?

    Crimea was annexed in 2014, so yea it was.

    But we can make reasonable forecasts 

    Neigh on impossible with Trump for many reasons mentioned.

    And it is entirely reasonable to propose that the overwhelming likelihood is that a Trump win means cutting off of support to Ukraine.

    No, it's not, for many reasons again outlined, not just by me, but others.

    It's not reasonable to suggest that Trump will cut off aid, and say to Putin, have at it.

    Putin rolling tanks into Kyiv while creating a **** show on TV is not in his interest.

    Most likely is that he will look to do some sort of deal, which may be bad or good for Ukraine. No one knows.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,148 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    Thought this was interesting and goes in hand with article in Telegraph which made points that no Russia does not have endless manpower despite what Russians try to paint



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,392 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    Hold on, Trump stands for Trump and the Trump family. He'll do whatever he believes will give him a legacy as a great US leader. His primary instincts are to self serve that image.

    If there's some advantage to be gained by Brand Trump with intervention in Ukraine, he'll go for it. If there isn't, not so good if he gets in.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,340 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    It is completely reasonable to say likelihood is that he will cut off aid in line with his previous actions both as President and more recently via his stooges in Congress, in line with the public pronouncements of his recent VP on the subject.
    In response all you have is speculative "wild card" uncertainty and "no one knows" and "may be bad or good for Ukraine".
    Zero evidence provided as this deal would be good for Ukraine, or better than anything they could get with a different administration backing them.
    Not a credible or convincing position.

    Trump will just pin anything bad that happens on Ukraine on Biden. We've seen the US cut and run before… the fall of Saigon, the fall of Kabul.

    I'll stick to the facts and evidence and how Trump has actually conducted himself towards Ukraine. And nothing in his previous foreign policy conduct or conduct towards Ukraine suggests any basis for claims he will be better for Ukraine in a second term.

    Post edited by odyssey06 on

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran




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  • Registered Users Posts: 765 ✭✭✭I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct


    98 times he's been mentioned in this page. He isn't in control he isn't in power he might not ever be again. Even if NATO was dissolved the EU could still kick russia back into the stone age. Get a grip lads.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,340 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Then what was all the fuss about the passing of the recent US aid package about?

    And also, I did not bring him to the thread, look back at the mentions in the page and see the course of what happened.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 765 ✭✭✭I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct


    I wasn't quoting you in particular im trying to highlight the hysteria around him and how it distracts from real-time issues.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,982 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    I wish he'd go away too (or could be ignored) but unfortunately we are where we are and currently US aid to Ukraine is very important. The US role as coordinator/leader of NATO is also important.

    It's up in the air to my mind how the others will respond to a new US admin. that tries to cut off Ukraine, and perhaps is even hostile to what it sees as the European "minions" trying to frustrate the new US Ukraine policy e.g. by supplying more aid themselves, and also pulls back from its role in NATO.

    Maybe European countries will rise to this challenge + hang together under stress vs hanging separately, maybe not...Would rather not see it all play out and get tested in reality, so better that He Who Shall not be Named loses the election.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,349 ✭✭✭rogber


    Exactly. If Trump is elected Ukraine is in serious trouble (even more serious than is already the case) and Putin will be emboldened. This gobsh*te VP pick is extremely anti Ukraine and I don't think aid can be made "Trump proof".

    The EU is in a hopeless position, Macron can do nothing now, a majority of Germans support Ukraine giving up territory for "peace", and Britain isn't even in the EU. So who's going to defeat Russia without American help? The Baltic States, Poland? No chance.

    Worrying times. NATO needs strong American leadership to be an effective force, with Trump it could collapse entirely



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,875 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    The VP pick should CFTrump and he get elected, will be odds-on favorite for the GQP nomination in 2028, too.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 765 ✭✭✭I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct


    Major General Richard Shirreff I find is an excellent source for straight up cold opinions on the war in Ukraine. I can't think of any of his projections that were wrong so far. His latest with Times radio.



  • Registered Users Posts: 765 ✭✭✭I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct


    There are 32 members of NATO and all but 2 are in Europe, namely USA and Canada. NATO isn't lead by the USA in fact its HQ is in Brussels and its SG is from the Netherlands, Mark Rutte.

    Ukraine isn't in serious trouble. Putin is **** himself. The VP is as relevant as tits on a bull. The EU is a real Superpower. Macron outfoxed Le Pen because fascists are fcuking idiots. Germans don't support Ukraine giving up territory. The UK isn't in the EU yet they provide a siht load of very nice toys to smash putins slaves with. Who's gonna defeat russia you say? Those who are at it right now and doing a fine job too I must say with so little.

    Go spend your rouble you absolute failure of a person

    Mod

    Warning applied.

    Post edited by Sephiroth_dude on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 786 ✭✭✭scottser


    EUrope is sitting on 300bn of Russian assets that the US can do fuk all about. That would go some way to funding Ukraine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,148 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    Bad point made there

    The US and UK were the ones pushing for this 300bn to be handed to Ukraine with EU protesting and opposing this move especially VDL

    Maybe this silly opposition is dropped eventually but no good argument was made for the feet dragging



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,920 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    The EU legally cannot just give Ukraine the seized Russian assets. It's going to be a long legal process to go through.

    The UK and US have also seized Russian assets.... How much of that have they handed over to Ukraine.... Zero!

    The feet dragging is EU law. Last thing the EU needs is to hand over the assets to Ukraine and the ECJ rules in Russia's favour and now the EU is on the hook for 300bil plus interest.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,148 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    We heard the same during the euro crisis

    For years we heard “oh no can’t break rules” until the euro crisis got so bad and so many countries including this one were teetering and needed IMF interventions

    Until one day the ECB done just that and solved the crisis overnight … and the world didn’t end

    Multiple international law professors have made it clear including on a BBC podcast on subject that there is no legal issue, neither is there a fear of setting bad precedent, Russia invested these assets despite having example (and knowing they were about to start a war) of Iraq state assets being seized in 90s

    If there is you are welcome to point at the exact laws that are causing trouble and provide an explanation as to why they can’t be changed



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,920 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    That's a bit like proving a negative. Maybe you can show the EU law that allows for sized assets to be given away to a third country. A bit like the CAB here, there's a bill that allows them to seize assets they believe are from crime.

    Iraq assets were seized, but (I'm open to correction) they were only distributed to victims when the UN security council agreed to do it. I can't see Russia agreeing to that.

    If it's so easy to do and you mention the UK and US urging the EU to do it, why don't the UK and US hand over the Russian assets they have also seized? Lead by example and all that?



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,535 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    The French nuclear deterrent is fine for France. But it doesnt cover the rest of the EU. Other EU states have declined to have their own independent nuclear arsenals for two main reasons - cost and the availability of the NATO/US nuclear umbrella. With rising tensions and nuclear weapons proving an effective deterrent against a conventional ground invasion (Ukraine hasnt invaded actual Russian territory) if the US were to pull out of NATO there would be a pressing need for an EU wide nuclear deterrent or at least one for countries like Poland, maybe Italy etc. Germany might not for, ahem, historical reasons.

    But in any event its a side point



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,269 ✭✭✭threeball


    Trump is totally and utterly compromised by the Russians. There is zero chance he does anything to make their life harder. Name one instance of Trump going against Russia in the 4yrs he was president. He spent most of it fawning over Putin and cozying up to dictators.

    If Europe has any sense it will press the accelerator on arms production now all over the continent whilst trying to negotiate supplies from South Korea. Allow this to backfill the fall off in US supplies to Ukraine which will inevitably happen and head off a wider war in Europe which be infinitely more expensive and destructive.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,783 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    Rifles are being collected from Irkutsk residents. Claimed they are wanted on the front line in Ukraine.

    Another way it is reducing the weapons held by the civilian population in case of insurrection.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,783 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    The russian government is actively hiding the figures for deaths in Ukraine and deaths from injuries in Ukraine. No surprise there. In the governments compiling of deaths of citizens they had a section with external causes where it would list cause of death. External causes included deaths of soldiers in combat, road accidents, murders and suicides. Before it listed each death and how they died. Now it's hidden in the section with no cause of death. Just their level of education.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,783 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    A 17 year old faces up to 7 years in prison for comments on social media in Russia.

    Investigative bodies in Omsk have opened a criminal case against 17-year-old city resident Mikhail Petrov under the article on calls for terrorism (Part 2 of Article 205.2 of the Criminal Code). The reason for opening the case was a comment on the social network VKontakte under a post about a drone attack on the Kremlin.

    "Glory to Ukraine. Work, brothers. Putin has probably already prepared fifteen suitcases for feces there))", Petrov wrote.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,679 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    The Russians had no problem with redistributing seized western assets in Russia. They stole plenty of aircraft and healthy businesses and franchises.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,349 ✭✭✭rogber


    Experts disagree with you re: the significance of Trump victory with Vance as VP:

    And really, the same old resorting to personal attacks and accusations of being pro Russian when I'm as pro Ukrainian as anyone on here? You'd think you'd learn by now...

    Post edited by rogber on


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,920 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    The Russians seized company assets not sovereign assets. There's a massive difference.

    Why haven't the UK or US handed over Russian seized assets to Ukraine? Poster is quite quick pointing out the US and UK were pushing the EU to send the 300bil to Ukraine but fails to release both the UK and US have sent Ukraine none of the assets they seized either.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,148 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    The US and UK sent something like 150bn in mostly military aid which helped stop the Russians cold and kill half a million of them, while it took two years for European aid to start to flow despite lofty and large promises which often get held back by either Macron, Germany or Orban

    And thanks for confirming that yea the EU yet again is dragging feet on helping Ukraine

    As for seizure of assets here is in-depth interviews systematically addressing the “concerns” that are being used as justification for not handing over these assets



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,349 ✭✭✭rogber


    Which is why the EU alone will not be enough to keep Ukraine in the game despite what certain raging fantasists claim. The UK will hopefully stay committed, the big worry is the US under Trump...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,148 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    I am very pro EU but VDL is feeding what smells awfully like bullcrap when it comes to very weak justifications for not using those frozen Russian assets immediately, and it has a particular tinge of the nonsense we all experienced during the euro crisis where the solution was staring everyone in face and it took ECB to make a move to save the Euro and EU

    Seizing and using Russian state assets is easier than seizing oligarch personal assets as it be impossible for Russia to argue in international courts that they didn’t break international laws and started an illegal war.

    Yes European (not just EU) countries have stepped up in 2-3 years since but

    1. Often bypassing EU and acting unilaterally or in concert with neighbours
    2. There is still feet dragging on some items
    3. Other cases there are technical difficulties like lack of F16 trainers despite the will and equipment available

    Your points are getting weaker and weaker, if the CAB seized assets from a criminal gang in Dublin but the victims are paid from another government fund, it doesn’t matter to the victims that they didn’t get those particular seized euros if there were any (or seized assets then converted to euros in auction)

    Money is fungible

    Those Russians assets for most part are in form of bonds earning interest not cash just sitting there

    And yes it took Belgium unilaterally to move to agree to not charge tax on the interest these seized assets receive as euroclear is located there, once again bypassing EU which is being held hostage and made impotent by likes of Orban



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,430 ✭✭✭nigeldaniel


    absolute total yahoo crap. Russia is up the creak and going back to the Stone Age, Don Don cant save them. Poland alone could trash Russia if it had the need to do so.

    Dan.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,349 ✭✭✭rogber


    Agree on all points, I'm also pro EU but this crisis has again shown the lack of a common vision, Poland and the Baltics at one end of the spectrum, idiots like Orban on the other, Germany flip flopping all over the place...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,349 ✭✭✭rogber


    Russia is in a bad way and so is Ukraine, these two facts aren't mutually exclusive and it helps no one to pretend otherwise. Both countries are in desperate trouble, one is completely innocent, the other a criminal aggressor, but that changes nothing about the current situation. Neither side is capable of winning the war as things stand



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,901 ✭✭✭zv2


    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,361 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,901 ✭✭✭zv2


    Well it seems Russia has finally used up all its tanks.

    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,148 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    There is also an article in FT from late last year (unfortunately behind paywall)

    It lays out who has seized what and how much and what form

    The main argument against is not legal but that it scare other authoritarian regimes from keeping funds in Europe, but if that was the case they would have left the moment Russian assets were seized, they didn’t

    And do we really want to set a message to likes of China, Saudis and corrupt regimes in Africa etc that “it’s ok, invade whom you want, and don’t worry we keep your euros safe regardless” 🤨

    What are the financial consequences?

    Opponents worry that such a move would damage the international rules-based order and undermine the trust that countries show when they place reserves with other nations.The latter argument carries considerable sway with some EU member states and the European Central Bank. Confiscating Russian assets would, for some, cross a line by suggesting to countries such as China or Saudi Arabia that sovereign assets stowed in euros or dollars might not always be safe.”


    There is no laws will be broken argument made at all, if anything that’s the east part

    She told the FT the idea was “unwise”, adding: “Many countries have been damaged by many things that violated international law with no suggestion that we seize foreign currency reserves. These are the most sacrosanct kinds of assets in the global financial system.”The move would also likely require domestic legislation in many of the countries seeking to implement it, she added, although this may prove a less formidable barrier.

    Which is a lot of bull and reminiscent of how during euro crisis a lot of thing were sacrosanct until suddenly they weren’t but not before damaging half a dozen European countries for a decade


    The two main arguments opponents of handing over Russian state assets made boil down to

    • it set precedent (oh noez)
    • it require small changes to law (double noez)

    Both are very weak arguments which podcasts and article above directly counter

    The same article hints at the real reason too, there seem to be some European companies still doing business in Russia and there’s fear more of them be hurt, which is bullcrap

    Russia’s options to counter with litigation are limited. “However, Russia will find other ways to reciprocate . . . that would mean inflicting more harm on businesses in Russia and potential other damages,” said Armin Steinbach, professor of law and economics at HEC Paris.Steinbach also points out that sovereign immunity cuts both ways. “Germany is still in some countries the target of war damages . . . [going back to] the second world war,” he noted.

    The above I suspect the real reason for EU feet dragging, everything else is weak spin that’s easily countered and exposed as nonsense



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,920 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    You still haven't answered my initial question why both the UK & US are sitting on Russian seized assets while pushing the EU to hand over their seized assets to Ukraine? Would the UK & US be also dragging their feet on that?

    It certainly has not taken 2 years for EU aid to flow to Ukraine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,148 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    US has sent seized oligarch assets and just a few months ago passed a law to send seized Russian state assets as part of the infamous bill in congress, tho there isn’t much of those in US

    Nothing like that has been done in EU, there is not even an attempt in the countries holding most Russian state assets to amend laws

    You are concentrating on what you think is a gotcha but in the process have confirmed my position that the EU is dragging feet on the single action which can fund Ukraine for 5-6 years well past any Trump term (assuming he doesn’t try to crown himself king again and destroy the republic)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,486 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I used to watch those Times Radio clips before. However I noticed that their coverage of the Israeli-Gaza conflict was entirely one-sided (in favour of Israel) to the point where it was more propaganda than information. That made me reconsider it as a good source for anything.

    It's nice to hear positive stories about Ukraine but you have to be careful that you're not being deluded.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 27,341 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Often bypassing EU and acting unilaterally or in concert with neighbours

    They are not "bypassing" the EU. Providing military aid, or even having some kind of military strategy, is not a competence of the EU.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,148 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    what’s this then

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-agrees-plan-send-million-artillery-shells-ukraine-2023-03-20/

    EU seals plan to send a million artillery shells to Ukraine

    sure sounds like military aid



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 27,341 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Probably overreach to some degree, though ultimately it was an agreement between member states which the EU is helping fund. It's a significant step in defence cooperation.

    This doesn't change the fact that no-one is "bypassing" the EU to deliver aid. There is no reason for it to go via the EU in the first place.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,269 ✭✭✭✭Sleepy


    While this is encouraging regarding the depletion of Russian more modern military assets lets not pretend that these aren't still lethal weapons.

    They may be almost 50 years old and very vulnerable to more modern armoured vehicles / anti-tank guns/rockets (if the position they're attacking has such armaments) but they're still a big upgrade on the golf buggies we've seen used lately and whether 100 years old or 100 days old an 100mm gun is still capable of doing serios damage.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,717 ✭✭✭firemansam4


    What a debacle this thread has become. There may be an odd time I don't always agree with what Rogber posts. But I have found him to be a pretty consistent poster with realistic expectations, he seems to be fully supportive of Ukraine and consistent on his condemnation of Russia.

    So just because he doesn't join in with the everything is rosy in the Ukraine camp and will give a more balanced view of expectations, the usual suspects in here come out with the same old Putinbot barbs again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,580 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Except that after another 4 years of Trump (unless he pulls a Putin on the constitution ??) Americans, and especially Republicans, may well have grown heartily sick and tired of his lying and criminal mishandling of America, and will put up a major battle against him for the 2028 elections.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,580 ✭✭✭jmreire


    They did more than enough damage to Hitlers far more superior tanks in WW2, simply because of the ease with which Stalin could produce them. A bit like the Russian human meat grinder principle. only with tanks. They could be replaced faster than Hitlers tanks.



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