Russia-Ukraine War

riffmongous

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122444822#Comment_122444822

Indeed. Until there is something like the 1905 massacres there won't be any serious upset. And even then, after they got rid of the Tsar Russia still continued to fight first through Kerensky, and then the Bolsheviks for as long as they could.

thatsdaft

Putin’s buddy in Venezuela is not having a good day, looks like Maduro fled and regime collapsed

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1818305496690122805

seems Venezuelans have larger balls than Russian serfs

I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122443772#Comment_122443772

Jesus what next. Maybe the LOL tractor from world of tanks.

vswr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122442472#Comment_122442472

It will be interesting how this is pitched…. much like the current situation in Syria… the groups who are currently (in Western eyes) the "good guys", have heavy links to Islamic State.

It's turning into an 80's to 90's Taliban/Mujahideen scenario all over again…. where your enemy is now friend, and potential future enemy.

thomil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122445792#Comment_122445792

I'm not sure that this comparison is all that valid. Whilst I agree with you about the general risk of such a strategy, we are much more attuned to the threat posed by insurgent groups such as the Taliban or ISIS. How much would yet another armed group really change the global threat picture? Western countries have the tools to go after such groups, as do upcoming hegemonial powers such as China, who have interests in many of the affected regions that are just as strong as those of the western world, if not more so due to their resource hunger. And those countries will also have far fewer scruples about responding with a heavy hand than the west does.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122444194#Comment_122444194

Looking beyond the massive loss of life and equipment that these attacks bring with them, I find it interesting that even over two years into this war, Russia's military leadership still hasn't adapted to the realities of this war, which is a good thing as far as I'm concerned. Back in mid/late 2022 and early 2023, one of my fears was that a prolonged war would weed out the peacetime desk jockeys and parade ground generals, allowing more savvy, experienced commanders to rise to the top and take command. For all the talk about the "Russian steamroller", the Red Army displayed some impressive logistical and tactical creativity in WW2 post Stalingrad, and my concern was that a 21st century Zhukov or Rokossovsky would emerge to sort out, or at least mitigate, the ongoing Russian operational or logistical issues.

The fact that this hasn't happened indicates to me that the institutional "rot" within the Russian command structure is far more deep-seated than I'd thought. And honestly, I don't think Putin has what it takes to change that. He grew up in the latter years of the Brezhnev era, and he seems to have internalized the "stability of cadres" doctrine of said era, which postulates that it was better to have stable and reliable, if subpar, leadership in place that is able to keep up appearances, rather than bringing in radicals and rabble rousers. I feel like that is a factor that is often overlooked.

thatsdaft

I think a competent military is even more dangerous to Putin’s regime than a free and “western” Ukraine

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122445792#Comment_122445792

Yes handing weapons and intelligence to jihadists is a questionable strategy and we've seen in the past how that can backfire on Western countries. Very much a case of my enemy's enemy...

On the other hand I think Ukraine can just about be excused here on the basis that every dead Russian fighter is one less man who can attack their country, they are literally fighting for their survival

I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct

1st F-16 spotted in flight over Ukraine allegedly

vswr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122445977#Comment_122445977

I very much agree on the outcome of it. I am just curious on how the optics of it will play out.

There is nearly never a "good guy" in international relations…. it's usually who has similar-ish interests and who is the best of a bad bunch.

vswr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122445889#Comment_122445889

Oh I'm not trying to undermine it or anything. I'm fully aware the west would have far more a handle on interacting with "enemies" over the collective east.

I was more curious how the optics would work out of it….

Putin already uses the "fighting Islamic state" line in Syria (although the Islamic state they fight, is a different one to the ones the west are targeting) .

The Malian rebels are in a similar situation vs Wagner and their ties to African Islamic state groups.

With the binary propaganda from Russia, yes/no, good/bad etc…. I wouldn't be surprised to hear complaints of "Ukraine terrorists supporting Islamic terrorists" soon.

thomil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122446546#Comment_122446546

Haven’t seen anything on the OSINT accounts that I’m following. The Wall Street Journal is running an interesting story though. The US will be providing a sizeable weapons package for the F-16s, including AIM-120 AMRAAMs, AIM-9X Sidewinder, additional AGM-88 HARM and JDAM conversion kits to turn “dumb” bombs into guided weapons. SO Ukraine won’t depend on the donor nations of the aircraft for weapons.

Even with that, I still expect the F-16s to be playing defense for a while once they’re operational in the country. And that in turn could take a while, there’ll likely be a pretty considerable work up period for all the ground and support crews as well as the pilots to get up to operational status.

Jinglejangle69

The F-16 is over 50 years old.

I think people need to calm the expectations.

Ukraine gets 50 year old equipment, when they deserve and need modern day equipment.

Hande hoche!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122446827#Comment_122446827

The Ukrainians seem to be doing well with similar vintage Sukhois and Migs. Spare parts and armaments should be easier to source for F16s.

Agreed that they aren't a silver bullet or wonder waffen but they will undoubtedly be useful. As regards more modern equipment, something like the Grippen would be ideal but isn't available in the same numbers.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122446827#Comment_122446827

Are they getting 50 year old with 50 year old weapons and sensors?

Or more modern versions of an airfrane that first went into service 50 years ago?

It is in use by many air forces around the world. It is modern.

It is not latest / cutting edge but it is not obsolete either.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122446827#Comment_122446827

50 years since first flight. By the same measure, the latest and greatest F35 would be 18 years old.

thomil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122446827#Comment_122446827

The basic design may be fifty years old, but the sensor suites and electronics on these aircraft aren’t. All of the Dutch, Norwegian and Danish aircraft were upgraded in the early 2000s to bring them up to the same standard as the new build F-16s rolling off the assembly line at the time. This means upgraded engines, a vastly upgraded cockpit, new onboard computers, a vastly superior radar, compatibility with weapons such as the AIM-120 AMRAAM as well as the latest generation of AIM-9 Sidewinder, data link capability, and so on. Make no mistake, these aircraft are very potent weapons systems,

Besides, the F-16 has something that the ex-soviet aircraft currently in use by Ukraine don’t: A well-established logistics supply chain. Over 4500 aircraft of the type were built, and around 2100 of those are still in service. And the aircraft is still in production. Not bad for a fifty year old design!

Say my name

Political prisoners are disappearing from penal colonies in the last week all over Russia. Relatives have lost contact and are just being told they were moved but not told where to.

Some are saying it could be a sign of a movement to America. Which seems strange to an outsider. With Putin holding his own people hostage being threatened with death. And then the US saying "Don't kill" "Give them to us". And then if true what does Putin get in return.

Could just be wishful thinking on the relatives part. Who knows.

I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122446827#Comment_122446827

The Falcon is still being improved on as is the B-52(1952). Air frames like the F-16 are perfect for the Ukraine theatre because the russians are using cold war materiel. The people will be clapping their hands soon skin.

I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122446786#Comment_122446786

Ya intercepting cruise missiles and defending civilian zones are their immediate priorities no question.

One they get a window they'll start mopping up russian air defences with wild weasel type sorties.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-crimea-attack-shows-russia-s400-vulnerable-older-missiles-atacms-2024-6#:~:text=The%20S%2D400%20is%20Russia's%20best&text=But%20he%20said%20its%20performance,it%20used%20in%20the%20attack.

Nobody fears the S-400 and russian arms deals are drying up like the Aral sea

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122447274#Comment_122447274

It is known

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1818486478546043374

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122446827#Comment_122446827

Indeed, the F16 is not some wonder weapon that will change the course of the war, anymore than Taurus would be. Should all this stuff be given to Ukraine? Yes. Is it going to send the Russians running back across the border? No. They will adapt and respond, as both sides keep doing and unless there's a miracle nothing much will change between now and next year

Field east

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122444411#Comment_122444411

D these Russian soldiers not see Russian bodies strewn on the ground as they approach the front lines;, vehicles bombed /burned; injured / the dead being returned from the front lines. So they MUST HAVE SOME IDEA AS TO WHATS IN STORE FOR THEM

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122447445#Comment_122447445

I'd say their options at that point are pretty limited to be fair!

thomil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122447418#Comment_122447418

Whilst I agree with you on the fact that it won't be a wonder weapon, these aircraft will provide quite a bit of additional capability to the UkrAF, rather than just plugging gaps in their current inventory. The F-16 is a true multirole aircraft and while, as has been mentioned before in this thread and its predecessor, the first operational missions will be flying CAP and intercept missions, I firmly expect the mission envelope to expand quite considerably once Ukraine have two or three squadrons worth of aircraft at their disposal.

I'm also not quite sure whether Russia will be able to respond quite as easily to this new capability as they would to changes on the ground. Russia has shown considerable reluctance when it comes to using air power in this war, mostly lobbing air-launched ballistic and cruise missiles at Ukraine from launch positions that aren't even in the same time zone. Their tactical aviation units seem to be limited to flying extremely close air support, even with air superiority aircraft like the Flanker series, and as far as I know, Russia never revived the USSR's DACT (Dissimilar Air Combat Training) program.

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122446946#Comment_122446946

There may be trouble ahead-

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1818590241151721855

TheValeyard

Nice,

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1818606709020983690

Dubh Geannain

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122448101#Comment_122448101

Suggestions it was hit by an FPV drone as it was taking off.

weisses

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122446827#Comment_122446827

Just read this … then go over your statement again

https://www.csis.org/analysis/f-16s-unleashed-how-they-will-impact-ukraines-war

thatsdaft

Ain’t HIMARs and M270 rocket launchers from late 70s-80s tech

And these have been causing nightmares for Russians

pcardin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122446827#Comment_122446827

50 years is 1970's. ruSSia is fighting with tech from late 1940's

TheValeyard

Speaking of F16s

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1818667676966764597

Dohnjoe

Interesting social media post I came across purportedly from New Zealander living in Russia - in response to Putin having to double the bonus for new volunteers (up to 400,000 rub)

"I've been posting this a lot lately, but here's some of my thoughts about this as a Russian from Petersburg.

Firstly, it's a common meme that they don't actually pay these bonuses at all, but probably this is being confused with the death bonus to families. It's true that they routinely evade this death payment by simply not marking the soldier as dead but "missing". However, from what I've heard and can understand, there's no reason to think that these sign-up bonuses don't get paid. At least I've heard various stories about these payments being used to buy whole apartments in poorer regions, and I know one family whose son signed up and they got the full payment pretty quickly. Also, there are many reasons why people don't want to sign up (which I'll get into shortly), but if they were refusing to pay after signing, I would expect everyone to know about it and spread the word. I haven't seen any such complaints though.

The thing is - they are desperate. They want people to know that these guys actually get paid the bonus, because they absolutely need as many as possible. You walk down the street here and every second billboard is an advertisement for the contract, or what other "benefits" you get from signing up. Now you can even earn a hundred thousand roubles if you successfully persuade someone to sign a contract. And yet, every night there are young uneducated and poor guys in the streets, drinking alcohol and asking for money for beer or cigarettes. There are still tons of young military age guys working for atrocious pay at McDonald's or cleaning streets. None of them want to go, even with this life-changing money, because everyone knows now that Ukraine is hell, and people don't last long enough to enjoy it. And not like their political views changed.

You don't even see Z-patriots or Z flags any more. The people who talked enthusiastically about the war two years ago are silent, and if it comes up in conversation, they dismiss it and move on. Of course, being Petersburg, there was never much Z-patriotism here like there was elsewhere. Still, it's clear that popular support for the war has plummeted, and now people are just burying their heads six feet in the sand and hoping the storm will pass without raining on them.

Another thing I've seen people talking more and more about is the fear that, because the carrot isn't working, Putin is going to start using the stick, and specifically there is increasing annoyance that all these Rosgvardiya, OMON, police, FSO, FSB, etc (all millions of them) are still sitting on their asses in the city centre, smoking and laughing with each other. There will be such a huge backlash if they start conscription massive amounts of regular people while these goons and cosmonauts get to be layabouts. Not that I'm saying this backlash will amount to any sort of popular uprising of course, but there are other ways this kind of sentiment can have consequences for Putin, and you can see this in how hard the Kremlin has worked to isolate regular people from the negative effects of the war, and tried to make everything seem normal.

But if Harris wins in November, Putin is going to face a grim dilemma. We're only two years into this and Russia has lost half a million working age men. If this rate keeps up, we're looking at 1.5m by the end of Harris's term in 2028, and if she wins, it's not unlikely she'll get a second term either. If she wins in November, I think Putin will have no choice but to do a full general mobilization including Moscow and Petersburg and try to go all in, because he won't be able to outlast her to 2028. He will have to go big, or go to the dacha.

Just my two kopecks. There are so many variables that it's very hard to make serious predictions about what will happen. There are a lot of warning signs on the horizon for Russia though, and things aren't going to get better."

RoyalCelt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122449522#Comment_122449522

Appreciate the input. I've been to St Petersburg and Moscow and it's a shame what that man's doing. Regarding the election I think he'll have a meltdown if Trump doesn't win. The French elections recently were a big blow to him.

@thatsdaft Russia used a combination of military equipment from every decade all the way back to the 50's. Thankfully it's top heavy and the majority of vehicles are from the 60-80's. Unfortunately their missile tech is quite advanced and until they receive enough patriot's etc and ammo they'll struggle against them.

Jinglejangle69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122449172#Comment_122449172

I’m happy reading that and admitting I’m very wrong.

riffmongous

Came across this on Reddit, a rough guide to the frontline changes over the last month on the eastern and northern front, absolutely miniscule russian gains being made for the huge costs in manpower and material.

https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/1egmuy7/notsoquality_maps_of_territorial_changes_in_the/#lightbox

RoyalCelt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122449727#Comment_122449727

We'll not know for sure until the war is over but wouldn't it be fantastic if Ukraine aren't actually losing many soldiers, Russia eventually get worn down and Ukraine go on the attack. Could take 2 years to reach this point. I've no doubt if Ukraine can stop the aerial glide bombs Russia are fucked in terms of damaging the Ukrainians. They are currently a huge asset and most of Ukrainians losses are probably to these.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122449556#Comment_122449556

That's it. (IMO) the US/Western hesitancy and fear throughout this (over last 2+ years) and fact that Putin possibly could still "win" by his own lights if corrupt pro-Russia politicians can just get themselves elected in some key countries by hook or by crook keeps it grinding on. He's effectively hoping something will turn up eventually to swing things in his/Russia's favour. I hope it is a gambler's fallacy from Putin, but I suppose when he values the lives of his own "subjects" at almost zero, he's willing to keep betting.

zv2

Slightly off topic but very well said.

https://twitter.com/Paultx890/status/1818688125574484077

thatsdaft

Interesting point made that last year western armchair generals were giving out at Ukrainians during their offensive that they moved slow and didn’t capture much, but it’s the Russians this year that are facing the same problems in their assaults where they get obliterated mainly thanks to drones everywhere

https://open.spotify.com/episode/61t8JHt6sFCJa4WTsAfOq5?si=3XNU7E3aQ3-L8tVZhvK04A&context=spotify%3Ashow%3A6cnkk1J0I1UqtxTYVUL4Fe&t=2195

Imho these lessons are completely passing western militaries by, militaries that should be closely watching and learning and helping

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122450342#Comment_122450342

The ukrainians were brought up in the Russian military. They know the strengths and weaknesses of the Russian army. They know how to defeat the Russian army. They wouldn't have fought back if they didn't think they had them. It was the hesitancy of supply of arms to Ukraine that slowed progress/defence and or maybe the US used some stone cold Artificial Intelligence and asked what strategy would be best to bring regime change to Russia and get Ukraine their country back without fsb going allah akbar around the world in terrorist attacks.

On the drones. It's a new age of warfare. Facial recognition, heat infrared camera technology, number plate ID, autonomous flying and positioning and targeting. And now drone manufacturing getting cheaper all the time.

I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct

F-16 flying over Lviv Ukraine

Detritus70

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122450528#Comment_122450528

I wonder how long it will take the Russians to claim they shot down more than were actually delivered.

RoyalCelt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122450528#Comment_122450528

Finally. Another step in the right direction.

Polar101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122450342#Comment_122450342

Why do you think western militaries aren't paying extremely close attention to how this war is fought and with what? It's clear to everyone air defense is a big problem - you can't defeat cheap drones using very expensive anti-air missiles, for example.

There will never be enough Patriot missiles, not enough is being produced in the world.

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122450342#Comment_122450342

I don't think that it's a fair assessment to say that western militaries aren't learning the lessons. They are choosing which lessons to learn.

For example, static defenses went out of favour in the west but are making a major comeback. The Baltic states in particular are spending a lot of money on bunkers and training hard for trench warfare, while stockpiling tank traps, dragons teeth, landmines etc

https://www.joint-forces.com/exercise-news/70682-nato-allies-train-hard-in-the-trenches-in-estonia

Weapons systems that have proved effective are seeing significant production increases:

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2024/02/19/lockheed-himars-production-60/#google_vignette

The fact that NATO countries consider a Russian invasion unlikely and a war of attrition undesireable does not mean that they are not learning lessons and taking steps and learning lessons from Ukraine. Likewise, the fact that they haven't collectively decided that we are all back to WW1 tactics and to forget F35s etc is a good thing.

The extent to which western militaries should reorientate towards a war with Russia, and more specifically a war of attrition with Russia, is debatable. Perhaps they should do it a bit more. But there are other considerations that must be taken into account and, with the exception of say the Baltic States and Poland, it would be unwise to go all in on trench warfare preparation.

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122451143#Comment_122451143

There aren’t observers on ground embedded with platoons

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122451283#Comment_122451283

Which is precisely what China will hope for if they start a war, attrition and using their industrial capacity to overwhelm

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122451307#Comment_122451307

There was a certain European country that took that approach in the last century. It can work as long as you don't overstep.

RoyalCelt

Now that F16's are in Ukraine I'm assuming Russian nukes are on the way. If you happen to read this, God speed.

SchrodingersCat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122451143#Comment_122451143

I believe that western militaries are learning from this war. For example, UK MOD are looking to accelerate development of laser weaponry like DragonFire. Their director of strategic programs said:

The DragonFire trials at the Hebrides
demonstrated that our world-leading technology can track and engage
high-end effects at range. In a world of evolving threats we know that
our focus must be on getting capability to the warfighter and we will
look to accelerate this next phase of activity.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/13/europe/britain-air-defense-laser-dragonfire-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

To be honest, what they really have to learn is that large stockpiles of artillery are always needed. The previous idea of industries ramping up and delivering on-time when something like this occurs is the stuff of dreams.