Russia-Ukraine War

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122476564#Comment_122476564

Ahh Darth you gem.

I hope he somehow keeps posting after the war too. He will always remain a Master Strategist (of Twitter)

Dubh Geannain

Decent twitter thread speculating on what Ukraine's plan might be.

Summary: Hitting logistics to soften Russia up for further counteroffensives.

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1821249833211953197?t=R1bt6bQ1OkDl-avs_fjYEg&s=19

Dubh Geannain

Likely only scouting crews that far forward but how deep are they planning on going.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1821455257160818981

Guffy

I wonder how the locals on the Russian side of the border are handling this? Would be great to see them actually assist the Ukrainians assuming they themselves are being more restrained than the Russians were in their assault.

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122477873#Comment_122477873

There is a dashcam video of a Russian civilian driver coming up to a checkpoint littered with Russian military corpses on ground

And he just goes “nope” and uturns

Won’t post here as contains dead bodies all over a road

scottser

Isn't the incursion into Kursk a trigger for Russia to use nuclear weapons?

scottser

Interesting post from a Sudzha resident:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1emo9e6/russian_in_kursk_region_talks_about_eancounter/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122477939#Comment_122477939

Just like F16s, HIMARS and any of the hundreds of events and “red lines” along the way where they threatened use of nuclear weapons if they are not permitted to steal what they want.

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122475181#Comment_122475181

Wow. Big talk. I doubt there would ever be any danger of it 'being you'.

EltonJohn69

A good time for Ukraine to counter attack

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-railway-collapse-sanctions-ukraine-war-1935049

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122477580#Comment_122477580

Balls of steel on the Ukrainians. Absolute balls of steel.

Jinglejangle69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122477939#Comment_122477939

They do that and Russia is finished as a country indefinitely.

Sleepy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122478011#Comment_122478011

Some speculation that collapsing the Russian railway network is one of the aims of this incursion into Russian territory.

paul71

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/head-hungarys-mol-sees-no-reason-wean-off-russian-oil-2024-08-05/

The Ukrainian advance into Russian Kursk comes a day after the above statement by the head of Hungarian Gas group, and shortly after Orbans Hijacking of the EU presidency to use as a propaganda tool for his pro Russian views. Ukraine have now captured the control station for all Russian gas exports into Hungary, Slovakia, and Czech republic. I am not speculating that this is sole reason for the advance, but it is certainly something that will reduce the strings in Orbans bow.

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122477843#Comment_122477843

Hard to guess the AFU's plan here; which is well done because the Russians are likely as blind as we are.

I wonder: Could they actually be making a move to take Belgorod? The place is pretty much key to the Northern Front, and my guess is that the Russians never banked on an AFU advance here. Can the current Russian army defend a large town / city against an army that's shown itself to be pretty excellent at urban warfare? Do they have any plans for such a situation?

My uneducated guess here is that the Russians had no plan for any of this, and that an actual attempt on Belgorod might trigger a panic along this front.

Once the AFU get past the Russian defensive earthworks I think they nearly have free reign of the countryside. If the AFU have a good plan to back this up, then the Russian might face a very serious threat to their Special Military Operation

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122477873#Comment_122477873

Full text (in Russian) is here: https://teletype.in/@hidden.tyan/kak_zhit

***
So, you wake up one bad morning, and there is a yellow-and-blue flag waving over the city administration building. Just like in the TV.

But how come, given that SVO (Special Military Operation) is going on successfully, with little bloodshed, on a foreign territory, and the goals of the SVO (whatever they are) are being met on time?

Well, maybe yes, but not here. Here you have to live somehow under occupation.

It so occurred, that for some little renumeration provided by the government and Ministery of Sciences, I studied the subject and wrote books just on this topic. And later I saw something on my own. Let me explain you what's what.

1. ⁠Why it all happened?

Well, because nobody gives a damn. You and I, defending us is not listed among the goals of SVO, and is not a part of any report. There is not a single officer responsible for our safety, no military headquarter is working on it. They are interested in taking New York for the 5-th time (because the name is so nice), all the five houses that are there, and may be get a medal.

We are not interesting for the volunteers and war correspondents. We live a "wealthy peaceful life" and should donate our last ruble to the construction works in Mariupol.

We had conscripts and cops guarding the border. Not Rosguardia, just regular cops. When bombs started to fall on my city, a Russian city of a size of half-million people, we didn't get any Air Defence, not a single anty-drone weapon! Our hospitals are not for us, but for the soldiers. We also don't need electricity, yeah, right!

We are not interesting for Moscow, they don't even need Donbass any more. All they think of is Kiev, nothing else.

They will fight to take us back without any hurry, if at all. Because the one who screws up, will be stripped of his military rank. So, it's easier to hold it off until the peace talks.

For now we are only interestiong to ourselves. Let that sink in.

1. What's gonna happen?

There will be bad and restless Nothing.

You know, Ukrainians ("khohly" in the original text) don't need us, and we are of no interest to them. They won't "ukrainize" us as the TV says. Because it is expensive and they there is nothing to take from us.

Thanks to our government and political party, we have bread. Very useful thing, but Ukraine has that too. We have some parts of the gas pipe, but we were deprived of access to it anyways. We also have roads to Moscow, so, there you go.

They don't need our soil, because there is zero benefit from it. They are here just to mow down our army.

For Ukrainians we are just a furniture. They have their reasons to hate us, but actually they don't have time for that - Ukrainian army does sharp and dodgy maneuvers, this is how they stay alive. We are just a part of the landscape, and even that is not for a long time.

We will be targeted by Iskander and Caliber missiles. Actually, it's Ukrainians that will be targeted, but because we always lack fire correction drones, they gonna shot as they did in Kiev - wanted to hit an airbase, but struck a children's hospital. Because what can they do, they have to liberate us.

Then the liberators come. Since our direction is of the 3d priority, they will sent Z-Shtorm troops (prisoners) and other merry men, to clear the ground.

But don't worry. They will not come until Ukrainians leave.

AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) don't care about us, they actually wage war, not like Akhmatov troops. Therefore, they won't repair an electric substation or a water pump station wrecked by our missiles, except that let us do it ourselves. And when it comes to medical care, their combat medics will do that only on holidays or in their free time.

1. What to do?

You can try to leave, Ukrainians still provide "safe corridors". But I can tell you from my own experience, at Russian checkpoints you will be stripped of everything you manage to escape with, except the clothes and things you wear. And in any Russian city you won't be able to rent a place to stay. Because "you will anyways leave in a month"

But you should still try.

And if you decide to stay, this is what you have to understand:

A) Stock up on water at any occasion. It will get difficult to clean it very soon. Ukrainians will let you use the same water pump as they use, but the queues will be long.

B) Stock up on food. Cereals. Canned food. Ask your parents how they lived in 90s. Very soon money will be out of use. Especially rubles - as soon as those who planned to leave finally do it.

C) Stock on medicines. What will be left after militaries, will be brought off the shelves by speculators.

D) You should always carry your ID. Always. Kids should have their own IDs, and they should carry them, not you. It's easy to get lost in a city with closed roads, and extremely easy if you have to get from a city to a suburb.

E) If you have a place to stay somewhere else, it's better to leave the city. If you don't, don't try because you will be driven away, in the best case.

F) Bunch up, it's better to stay with you fiends in a bigger apartment. Don't leave the apartment without extreme need. And not just by night, by day as well, as the SVO veterans sometimes want to eat as well.

G) Street patrols are not there for your safety but for their's. They are not a police, they don't have to drop everything and sort out your complaints, but in case of a dire need they may help you. But remember, you have to treat them with respect, say everything clear and repeat if asked so. They don't need you, but you might need them sometimes.

H) Don't you dare to have fun loudly. If you are into drinking - time to drop it. You like to get scandaluos with your neighbors - sew up you mouth. If you become a problem not for Ukrainians but for your surrounding - this problem will be dealt with quickly.

I) Don't wear any patches with Russian flag, St George strips (orange/black stripes) or Z-patches. Russia doesn't give a **** about it, no one will know about if, even if someone learns about it - he will laugh at you. But you don't have to irritate people on whom it depends how you gonna live. You won't get killed, but many questions will be asked.

J) Your complaints about you neighbor that he is a member of the party United Russia are pointless. No one will make you a city mayor, because no one needs a city mayor. But if a polite person with an SBU ID (Security Service of Ukraine) asks you where is a district police officer - you better answer. Because for the district police officer it makes no difference, but you don't need problems.

K) Ukrainians will manage all the job assignment. There are no illusions about that. For you this will make a little difference - either you keep your old job, if you are lucky or you are an electrician, for example. Or you don't have a job at all, like if you are into marketing. Of course you can proudly refuse to work, but no one gives a ****. But the Motherland won't feed your family. Neither now, nor any time later.

L) ZSU doesn't need translators. Policemen - I doubt it, and if so - not too soon. The jobs that can be prodived will be received by those whom no questions need to be asked.

M) But if you neighbor asks you to join a partisan squad - you better report on him. He is not wishing you any good. As we know from Kherson, Odesa and Kharkiv, SBU quickly catches these underground agents, and puts them in jail for a long term. You are serponsible for your kids, and for your parents actually too.

N) Make use of the experience from Ukrainians. When our army gets to bomb us - listen to Ukrainian air raid sirens, they are very precise. Take shelter and keep in mind the rule of two walls, hide in a shower room or in a corridor.

O) Btw, talking about the experience of Ukrainians. A power generator is a good thing for the time being, until you run out of gas. Everybody will run out of gas. Later the gas will get back, but not for everybody.

P) And finally - stop reading news. Ukrainian news are not for you - these people have different problems. Russian news are also not for you, there nobody gives a damn about us, we spoil the picture. This is the way and the only way to live through until the end of all this ****. And then ask our leaders and heroes, what the **** was all this?

But they won't answer. Because who are we to hold them accountable?

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122478149#Comment_122478149

Surprising sober and pragmatic advice to the Russians facing occupation in the area.

My gut feeling is that, if Ukraine do actually occupy the area for a while, then they have the potential to seriously hurt the Kremlin by treating the local Russians nicely.

If the occupation forces do a decent enough job to ensure that the locals have enough water, fuel and food, while showing them a degree of kindness & patience, that could massively damage the messaging the Russians have been pushing about Ukraine. The locals might even find themselves better off in an AFU occupation zone than under Putin's control. Thanks to the likes of Telegram it would be difficult to filter out good news coming out from these areas if it goes this way.

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122477939#Comment_122477939

Russian Nuclear Doctrine is deliberately vague. It states that nuclear weapons can be used in the case of military aggression where the existence of the Russian State is at risk. Putin can't logically say that this justifies nuclear weapons without admitting that the existence of the Russian state is at risk. However, as with everything, the published doctrine can be at variance with what actually happens.

Guffy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122478291#Comment_122478291

This exactly. The worst thing Ukraine could do is go scorched earth as previously suggested.

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122478117#Comment_122478117

I think it's as simple as strike your opponent where they are weak, which is as old as Sun Tzu. They might try to dig in, knowing that Russia will have to throw everything at them there, and to cause horrific casualty ratios. It might have secondary objectives of redirecting troops from Vovchansk, cutting logistics to Belgorod/Donbas, political victory and proof of concept for further use of US vehicles in attacks on Russian soil. The fact that Ukraine has an advantage in mobile warfare but a potential disadvantage in attritional warfare also makes it a sensible option.

Fighting to take a city is a dangerous business. The relative success of Ukraine over Russia in urban warfare is reflective of the fact that Ukraine were defending, not that they have superior troops or tactics for the task. But you don't actually have to take a city at all - merely by threatening to do so can cause difficulty for Russia.

In terms of Russia being blind, I suspect that Ukraine has not only kept things tight from an operational security point of view, but they have also contributed to misinformation by underplaying it, saying it was just a stunt etc. Ukraine are beating Russia at Russia's own game it seems!

pcardin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122478291#Comment_122478291

You don't seem to know russians well. And you seem to think they are decent like any normal nation. Well they are not. Ukrainian kindness will backfire. russkies will take any kindness/helping hand offered, abuse it, and then backstab. Ukrainians will save them but russkies will still glorify putin. and laugh at Ukrainian naivness

StoutPost

Do you own thing by all means, but Trent is way out of his depth on many, many issues.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122477843#Comment_122477843

junkyarddog

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1821497407546265765

🤣🤣

Guffy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122478364#Comment_122478364

Germans tried this once, didn't work out to well for them

thatsdaft

This offensive really opens a can of worms for Putin

• how come the much advertised fortifications along whole border were breached so easily
• where Russian air force again
• how did their intelligence missed this three years into three day war same intelligence predicted
• they can’t carpet bomb “old” Russia itself (or maybe they can and will?)
• do they keep pushing in Donbass or pull troops off and rush them here in process giving up those gains which cost hundreds of thousands of lives and most of Russian tank and vehicle stocks
• how do they hide from their own population the enormity of what occurred last few days as panic is clearly spreading on social media and messaging
• Russia tried hard to paint a picture of a war where both sides are grinding away for incremental gains, yet here we have rapid combined arms manoeuvres which Russians were not capable backed by drones

Even if ultimately Ukrainians are pushed back here this will be remembered as what Russian Kharkiv offensive of few months ago was meant to be

Say my name

A post here on one of the drivers in February for pickups4peace convoy.

http://twitter.com/pickupsforpeace/status/1821471410721611922

War is won by logistics and supply to the frontline.

thatsdaft

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1821456327786270845

25KM from Kursk NPP now

Dubh Geannain

Two "lines of defence" apparently is what has been breached.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1821501370727379301

Good post @johnnyskeleton - We're all still at the speculation phase of the primary objective but a few of us were hoping for a similar strike for a long time as Wagner and the Russian mercenary groups demonstrated clear weakness here.

It's fantastic to see Ukraine were clearly taking notes. Their rapid advance in Luhansk has likely also turned into an excellent experience for them in relation to mobile warfare. And still without air superiority. Where's the Russian Airforce? Off poking at Swedish airspace or something more productive maybe.

thatsdaft

Todays ISW update should be interesting this is from the 7th

TheValeyard

Still advancing

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1821503851289002171

TheValeyard

I dont know if it's very clever psyops, but lots of footage going around of large amounts of Russians just not fighting and giving up

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1821493177926176825

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1821485757443252520

Mr. CooL ICE

Relevant

https://twitter.com/PaasoMinna/status/1821504130935816321?t=E5FDgU9Lfnw6HVg2SmDdbg&s=19

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122478396#Comment_122478396

Some further thoughts

• derailed and took initiative form Russians who now have to scramble
• captured more territory faster than the now infamously failed Russian Kharkiv offensive with 35,000 troops we were told be catastrophic
• trialled new equipment and tactics with 2 very well regarded brigades involved, brigades that were dismissed as 'they can't adapt to NATO kit' last year
• destroyed the 'inevitable Russian win' myth
• testing new combined arms operation wth EW and SAM screening to deny Russia effective tools to quickly counter
• blown up the US Republicans and far left claims Ukraine is a lost cause stop so wasting money on them
• destroyed Russian morale in this area
• Shoigus replacement looking nervously at nearest windows now

Only criticism I heard is that these troops should have been sent to critical areas in Donbass, but IMHO Ukraine won’t win this by using Russian meat grinder tactics, and if it pulls troops out then that be help for those in Donbass

I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct

russia hasn't seen an invasion of it's territory like this since 1941 when hitler invaded with operation Barbarossa. Imagine what that does to the fragile ego of the russian bully. russians have been going to great pains to stop it's troops from sharing videos of the war on the front but social media will spread this like wildfire in russia and cause panic.

Dubh Geannain

Only posting this one now as I've seen it reported a few times earlier this morning. This could be up to 1,000 troops if true.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1821525643500093665

Edit: Just in follow up to that. Will there be a few more POWs?

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1821524838609018927

Mr. CooL ICE

Imagine what it's like being part of this incursion. It's been, what, 72 hours? The adrenaline must be insane. Like, how would you be able to even sleep? You're deep in enemy territory and near constantly on the move. You can't exactly rent a hotel room. You probably can't set up field tents because the safety of your surroundings is unknown. Hell, even frontline trenches have sleeping quarters. So, how do they keep going?

I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122479109#Comment_122479109

They have a secure corridor back to Ukraine by the looks of it so surely they're rotating troops and the injured in and out freely. The fog of war is heavy so who really knows what's happening.

threeball

I hope there is a very beneficial endgame to this incursion as its very high risk. One thing to attack a country and spread deep and wide where the abilty to retreat into your own territory is greatly enhance but having battalions heading off on narrow spits where the potential to get isolated is extremely high risk. If this is just a finger in the eye to Putin, I don't think its worth it. If however it allows them to destroy essential logistics of get at the Russian Aircraft or glide bomb storage then its possibly worth it.

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122479109#Comment_122479109

If you've been fighting to defend a tyrant from destroying your homeland for 2.5 years, and have faith that your military and political leadership have your backs, and have the memory of lost friends, relatives and comrades… I'd say the adrenalin lasts a long time. Like I say, balls of steel. But with smarts as well. You absolutely love to see it.

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122479267#Comment_122479267

My guess is that the main pay off might be throwing the Russian advance in Dombass off balance and so that they can push at a weak point on one of the Southern fronts. Also possible leverage to get the Russians to withdraw from Ukraine if they can occupy enough territory.

thatsdaft

it was worth it for the memes and the lulz alone

https://twitter.com/oedipovich/status/1821257300838858753

https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1821525853383065995

But who are we to say? It’s up to Ukrainians who i suspect rather move fast than rot in trenches

TheValeyard

Hard to believe UAF able to air power in Kursk

They had to have moved AA to the border.

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1821517391215427690

TheValeyard

Update of things so far

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1821534777616355760

Dubh Geannain

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122479267#Comment_122479267

There's talk (Russian) of Ukrainian force concentrations near Hlukhiv which could potentially be a second salient north of the first incursion and could provide flank coverage in that direction. No sign of them crossing there yet though towards the largest Russian town in that area, Rylsk.

I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122479267#Comment_122479267

russias biggest weaknesses are it's need to project strength and seem invincible and it's military logistics. Both are being made look ridiculous now. If this turns out to be just a raid and retreat, russia will still have pour in forces and try build defences while under constant artillery fire from across the border. Plus they will need to backfill every inch of their border with Ukraine to prevent the exact same thing happening. This could be the turning point in who has the initiative in the war.

I'd be watching how Lukashenko reacts to this too, he could go very cold on putin if all of a sudden russia has to empty Belarus of their troops to plug this hole.

The Caucasus's are kicking up now too.

TheValeyard

https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1821545655967613120

Where has Ukraine found all these troops from?

Covid19

I've seen reports of attacks on S400 and even S500 Sam sites around the Kursk Bridge in recent days.

Will the bridge get hit next?

I know its not likely, given the Block-type of F-16's delivered and relative armaments, but Christ what a political coup it would be to see footage of the Bridge getting hit, as seen the targeting pod lens of a fresh Ukrainian F16.

However, I do believe the Bridge will be attacked very, very soon.

:)

Covid19

Reported in Newsweek 55 minutes ago.

F-16's may be involved in incursion:

Ukraine F-16s Spotted Over Russia Controlled Kherson: Report

Published Aug 08, 2024 at 9:21 AM EDT

Ukrainian F-16 fighter jets have been spotted along the frontline in the country's southern Kherson region, according to a Russia-installed official.

The fourth-generation jets, provided by the West in recent weeks, were seen over the Ukrainian settlement of Kakhovka in the past two days, according to Pavlo Filipchuk, the Russian-backed head of the southern district.

Kakhovka sits on the largely Russian-controlled east bank of the Dnieper River, which has broadly marked the frontline for much of the full-scale war.

On Sunday, Ukraine officially confirmed that the Lockheed Martin-made aircraft had arrived in the country and were already operational with Kyiv's air force.

"Since yesterday, F-16 [fighters] have been flying over our district," Filipchuk said in remarks published by Tass, the Russian state news agency. "This is being done only to sow panic."

Dubh Geannain

Did someone mention Rybar? I'll bet they enjoyed drawing their latest map update at 2pm Eastern European time.

Edit: I'm behind with the Rybar updates. Note the warzone moved on from Sudzha in their update 3 hours later at 5pm Eastern European Time.

thomil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122479579#Comment_122479579

Not to put too much of a dampener on things, but I don't think that targeting pods were included in any of the aid packages? Given the F-16s origin as a light fighter, these pods need to be carried externally, although I recall some F-16s having mounting points on their nose for that.