Russia-Ukraine War

JimmyChew

Is it fair to say after recent developments that a tactical nuclear strike by RuZZia is now off the table as an option for Putin? I mean this is the biggest of many steps across this red line that he spoke about.

Hear me out..

NATO would have had to have a big say in this operation and they would have had their intelligence on what the possible/likely outcomes could be and they surely gave the green light. Its highly unlikely Ukraine would have done a solo run here without the say so of the "Allies" so in turn NATO, not wanting to see Article 5 triggered by a tactical nuke strike gave the thumbs up?

I know it was a lot of sabre rattling by Putin over the last few years RE mass destruction weapons but we just never knew where they were at. Now that Ukraine have taken the fight to RuZZian soil & "threatened their sovereignty" and they still haven't unleashed their reported tactical nuke weapons are we confident they either cant or wont any time soon?

Suckler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122486834#Comment_122486834

I'd agree with the good and bad for Ukraine. Whilst the Ukrainian invasion was a great morale booster from their point of view, it heaps pressure on Russia/Putin to respond in a way that will (a) reclaim the lost area and then some, and (b) give Russia a similar morale/propaganda boost. This is worrying as Putin would have to do something overly drastic to ensure the win and ensure that it has the necessary panache to dissuade future Ukrainian invasion and quell any potential concern for his leadership. Chemical weapons & leaning more on Lukashenko to get Belarus directly involved are potentially on the table. Best course of action in my (completely militarily unqualified) view would be to mine the pockets they invade and pull back to their borders creating buffer zones - Only one side could sustain the invasion(s) long term.

Roald Dahl

I think the Ukrainian Special Military Operation is an overwhelmingly positive occurrence.

Russia in its seething arrogance has committed its entire capability to Ukraine, never pausing to think they could be on the receiving end themselves. We are reminded of Bomber Harris commenting on Germany.

The world now sees Russia as being a spent force and all they have left are these fictional nuclear bombs, which even if a handful of them do actually exist and are actually capable of launching, will never be used.

It is time for the unwilling hostages in the Russian Federation to claim their independence.

It is time for Russia to be soundly defeated, occupied, demilitarised, dismantled and its war criminals to be rounded up to face justice.

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122486834#Comment_122486834

I'm not sure why you call it a distraction - Ukraine are opening up another front. They obviously have the capacity to do it and it is a smart move. When people talk about how Ukraine is prepared to give up land in order to cause maximum losses to Russia, by attacking where Russia is weak they will also cause substantial Russian losses. The ultimate aim is to bring the Russian armed forces to a point of failure, and the Kursk attack is testing the Russians in a number of areas.

Ukraine are seizing the momentum because, even though as you say Russia can't keep this up long term, Ukraine have to demonstrate that they can take the initiative whenever they want. The idea would be that rather than wait 3 years for a grinding victory over Russia, they would rather have the war end earlier.

Not saying that this will be a point of critical failure for Russia, but this is the type of thing can can bring it about.

Galwayguy35

So is this war going to turn into another Vietnam where it will drag on for years on end.

greenpilot

NATO missed this memo...

tom1ie

How many soldiers are in a ukranian brigade?
Do we know how many brigades have invaded Russia?

Repo101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122486953#Comment_122486953

It's a distraction as it has yet to be seen whether or not Ukraine will be able to sustain any territory in Russia. If they can then it could be a game changer. The difference in a tangible move and a distraction will ultimately depend on the outcome. Right now, I would suspect this is short term. Ukraine won't be able to supply troops if they try and cut deeper into Russia. In my opinion it's not sustainable other than creating a distraction and moving men and weapons away from the front on both sides.

Even if it is short term, should Ukraine use this as a means to push Russia back at the front then it would obviously be a massive success but I suspect we would need to see more territory along the border taken for Russia to have to massively recalibrate in a way that gives Ukraine the initiative at the front.

As for the war of attrition, when I say one side can win, that is Russia as they have more weapons and more men.

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122487044#Comment_122487044

at least 4 brigades, 6000 people reported yesterday

Deub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122487050#Comment_122487050

A distraction would have been Ukraine going there and being pushed back within few hours. I mean, we are talking about a country that claimed to have a strong and unlimited soldiers.

How come after 4 days, Ukraine is still going?

nigeldaniel

I will just park this here.

SchrodingersCat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122486975#Comment_122486975

Not sure. Alot could depend on this US election in November. Harris and in particular Walz have shown much support for Ukraine and will continue to support them. It would be fantastic if they gave more support than Biden, the country easily has the capacity to do so. Congress will be the deciding factor again. Most suspect Trump will pull support but im not 100% convinced. More than likely yes, but he is a wildcard. The brass of the military might convince him how its in Americas interest to continue support. The US is getting incredible value for money in funding Ukraine in taking down a competing world power. If Trump does pull support, the EU might pick up some of the slack. If Trump wanted to be a super dick about it he could limit the EU owned US weaponry that they want to forward on to Ukraine. If that happens Ukraine will be in a very very difficult situation. It also depends on Germany and France wanting to give support, which is no guarantee either.

Then again, the Russian economy could collapse tomorrow, who knows.

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122487063#Comment_122487063

Where are you getting that info from do ya mind me asking?
Im reading brigades are 1000 in strength and other sources are saying Ukrainian brigades can be up to 5k in strength, so possibly 10k soldiers?

Hard to know who to believe!

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122487044#Comment_122487044

Maybe thousands of troops.

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122487114#Comment_122487114

Seems to be up to 10k now references here

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion

I posted tweet few pages back that Russians initially claimed 1000, and then 4 different brigade patches were seen from video and photos coming out, including a video of them driving over abandoned border post

Could very well that Ukrainians themselves are surprised at the success and now pouring more men in as this is ending up a Turkey shoot of untrained Russians who line up literally on roads to be ambushed and killed

Todays ISW report talks about “significant” Russian redeployments from south and east (which itself makes this a huge success in short term)

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-9-2024

macraignil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122487050#Comment_122487050

"

As for the war of attrition, when I say one side can win, that is Russia as they have more weapons and more men.

"

Spoken like a true putin fanboy. You have taken note that the invasion of Ukraine by putin's terrorists has not been going very well for them and they have lost huge quantities of their trained military forces and equipment?

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122487114#Comment_122487114

Pretty sure it's in Ukraine's interest right now to put out many conflicting reports of exactly how many soldiers are involved in this incursion in order to confuse the Russians and make them entirely unsure how much resources to commit.

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122487050#Comment_122487050

Russia may have more weapons, but they are inferior weapons. They may have a larger population, but they don't have the same amount of dedicated and professional volunteers that Ukraine have.

So Russia will send wave after wave of mobilised troops, mercenaries, duped immigrant workers and prisoners at the Ukranians using cold war era and North Korean equipment and munitions. How you figure from that that Russia is the only side that can win is utterly beyond me.

But then again, maybe you have sources of information that are not available to me!

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122487165#Comment_122487165

Absolutely agree.
However I’m looking for stats on how many are in a Ukrainian brigade usually.
seems to be conflicting info.
Or is it that a brigade is a brigade regardless of country?

Dubh Geannain

Well it's a great distraction isn't it?

Yesterday's equipment losses -

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1822226248967299556

Then there's also the abandoned Russian equipment from fleeing forces that Ukraine have managed to get. I've not seen as much detail in terms of munitions acquired but stuff like this

Ukrainian Forces Capture Valuable Russian T-72B3 Tanks (msn.com)

One particularly notable find is an abandoned T-72B3 tank near the town of Sudzha. This model, equipped with advanced thermal imaging cameras, represents a significant loss for the Russian military.

Dubh Geannain

Who makes this stuff up 😂

EltonJohn69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122486573#Comment_122486573

you would think only an actual sociopath could do that but russian society seems to breed large numbers of people with sociopathic behaviour. Sociopaths is considered genetic but russian society makes me think it might not be the case considering the high numbers.

Mike3549

Nice one.

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1822301890522104248?t=1B_KhkIOiJItYQKuVAxxFA&s=19

TheValeyard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122487908#Comment_122487908

Also heard about another KA-52 shot down

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122487775#Comment_122487775

Just going by the track record of Kyiv, Sumi, Kharkov and Kherson, once Ukriane liberste a region they do not give it up again

Mike3549

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122487913#Comment_122487913

Oh yes, that too. I think fighterbomber or whatever its called confirmed that

threeball

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122486695#Comment_122486695

This is exactly what I was on about earlier. If they play their cards right it could be a turkey shoot. The Russian's are scooting around just above the tree line and there for the taking.

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122487921#Comment_122487921

Not exactly a 1:1 analogy though, as Russia isn't Ukraine, invaders probably equally unwelcome in both countries

thatsdaft

Fascinating how some pro Russian posters are trying to frame this as “Kiev trying to hold territory in Russia” with zero evidence for such a claim

when it’s quite clear the aims of this are to

• Draw troops from Donbas, happening as per ISW
• Cause mayhem and political difficulties for Putin, he is looking like a right cuck this week, and his generals probably more worried about their own lives than what’s happening in Kursk
• Use maneuver warfare and ambushes to kill as many Russian soldiers and equipment as possible as these are not in prepared defences and disorganised, evidence of this time and time again from destroyed columns to planes and helicopters shot down

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122487925#Comment_122487925

Seems Putin is throwing the airforce at this incursion where they were hiding before over Russian soil and the Ukrainians were hand tied to take them out.

This is definitely an interesting development.

Maybe this incursion force too is completely devoid of Russian spies could be separate to the rest of the army fighting in Ukraine. Whatever it seems they've more freedom fighting on Russian soil.

threeball

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122487955#Comment_122487955

Add to that, that they'll have to commit troops and equipment to the border to prevent the Ukrainians repeating this here or at some other point along the border. This could stretch them so thin that multiple breakthroughs on the front line become possible.

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122486975#Comment_122486975

Not really, it will go on as long as russia can sustain it, Ukraine have to defend themselves, they don't have the option to stop, even if russia somehow made large gains, it would descend into guerrilla warfare and insurgencies.

When Ukraine retreat from the kursk region, the bots will start talking about peace again and everyone will ridicule them for doing so.

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122487986#Comment_122487986

I found the “planning to cross back across the border” bit even more hilarious

Budanov must be flooding the area with operatives who can either go to ground and or use the civilian panic to filter deeper into Russia

And spend months and years carrying out sabotage and executions from within Russia itself forcing the internal police to choose between policing or their current role of shooting fellow Russians who retreat

bear1

Russia now saying they’ve stopped the Ukrainians from moving forward

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122488011#Comment_122488011

So they were lying 4 days ago when they claimed the same thing?

Hande hoche!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122488011#Comment_122488011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122488016#Comment_122488016

The much battered enemy continues his cowardly advance.

Say my name

Ukrainians frightening the life out of Russians with their robot dogs.

http://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1822255602401263705

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122487518#Comment_122487518

Those materialists are always trying to make everything genetic. Alcoholism was 'genetic' for a while but not any more. Went out of fashion.

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122487955#Comment_122487955

Nobody has done that. No need for the paranoid post.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122488011#Comment_122488011

They are now moving rapidly sideways and diagonally comrade.

zv2

….

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122488115#Comment_122488115

Lol

ejmaztec

I wonder how much damage a thermobaric bomb did? I can't see any other details.

Russia Deploys Devastating Thermobaric Bomb in Response to Ukrainian Incursion into Kursk (btimesonline.com)

RoyalCelt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122487908#Comment_122487908

I'm actually surprised it took this long. Maybe Russia jets weren't operating as usual after they probably temporarily left the air bases that were attacked.

Looks like Ukraine have taken about as much territory now as possible and it's probably going to be mainly defensive from here on in.

Markcheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122487775#Comment_122487775

Ukraine may well keep throwing resources at kharkiv, the Ukrainian army want manoeuvre war as a way to break the dead lock , and this may well be it , the bigger this offensive gets ,the more it sucks in russian resources and troops , and Russia doesn't have long prepared positions , Russia can gamble on which way Ukraine will go , and build huge defensive a long way back from the front line -but you'd need to go a long way back to guarantee time to get it built,plus that almost abandons that area between the front and the defensive line to the oncoming Ukrainians -

Ultimately Ukraine has to replace the existing front in Ukrainian territory, with one exclusively in Russian territory, and the further south and east they can go , the more they deprive the Russians of supplies and the more they suck in resources from the Donbass, which was always going to be a nightmare to fight through ,

kowloon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122488109#Comment_122488109

Increase speed, drop down and reverse direction!

Dohnjoe

Note how the concern trolls are silent at the moment, always quiet whenever Ukraine is achieving something positive. If Russia starts to push Ukraine back, watch this space, they'll pipe up again.

Montage of Feck

Fair play to Ukraine they seem to have pulled a fast one on Putin and Russia.

Markcheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122488411#Comment_122488411

Would be stupid not to , ultimately Ukraine are going to head south , I dont think they have the desire or the troops to do a Napoleon and head for Moscow

Also the russian would be behind them in Ukraine ..

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122487114#Comment_122487114

A typical brigade is two to four line battalions, with support assets. Normally 2-4000 people. A line battalion is generally 300-500 infantry, the rest being the supporting cast. I can't speak to Ukraine specifically, but generally speaking, a bde is a bde.