Russia-Ukraine War

TheValeyard

Interesting

https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1822850953801793719

thatsdaft

Calm down.

Putin couldn’t even come to call this for what it was “an invasion of Russia itself” (which itself would be admitting that annexed regions are not Russia and telling the Russian people he failed at the one job he has)

And called it a “counter terrorism” operations with the military now removed and FSB put in charge as per yesterday’s ISW report

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122493791#Comment_122493791

The question which needs to be asked is the makeup of that 50,000. If it was primarily convicts, ethnics and foreign mercs, then Putin couldn't give a fcuk. He'll throw that at the front line all day.

It also seems that punishing, numbers-based attrition warfare is sort of worshipped in Russian culture, given how central the sacrifices of WW2 are in their history. Maybe it plays into the whole 'Russia is big' mythos, despite having a population of 140 million. Lot of people, but far from inexhaustible and doubly so when you consider that only some of this number can go to war.

CelticRambler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122490515#Comment_122490515

The benefit is not so much in "getting people to actually do something" as creating a viable alternative narrative that either paralyses the decision makers - who are going to get phone calls from families wanting their guys returned - or pushes them in the wrong direction.

Right now, we're seeing the effect of that in respect of Kursk. On the one hand, you have a bunch of Russian bloggers in a blind panic because they saw a single Ukrainian tank half a kilometre down the road; on the other, you have the hard-core Kremling butt-suckers talking about how a gigantic horde of "hohols" were vaporised by the mighty Red Army.

In the middle, you have local politicians traipsing from house to house trying to get pensioners to evacuate "to safety" because they know they can't count on the Kremlin to protect them (might even bomb their own because … ya know, Kremlin) … and at the same time, you have Ukrainian forces cruising down the undefended highways, with enough time (and confidence) to stop and ask a couple of babushkas if they need help carrying their shopping.

With each passing day, this does indeed look like a "Prigozhin-2.0" challenge to the All-Seeing-Eye-of-Putin - only this time, the cavalcade is backed up with serious anti-Kremlin firepower and (subject to confirmation!) a determination to hold whatever ground they take.

From a political strategy point of view, Ukraine doesn't need to take any major cities in the Kursk or Belgorod regions: their mere presence in a huge swathe of territory along the "wrong" side of the border is an almight poke in the eye for Putin, especially if the local residents decide that life is no different (or even better) under the new regime.

Dubh Geannain

Even this lad isn't denying Ukraine's presence in certain areas.

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1822914046892421399

What's interesting is the direction of travel (coming from Belaya). Very close to the Kursk/Belgorod border at that stage. And from a doom merchant poster on twitter to a more (perhaps overly) optimistic one.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1822936355254505624

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122493789#Comment_122493789

If comments were only allowed that provide new insight this thread would be a lot slower than it is. You're just being petty and belligerent with your pointless sniping for the sake of it. I won't waste any more time discussing it with you

RoyalCelt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122494000#Comment_122494000

It turns out that BTR was captured by the Russians so they're well in control of the area around giri.

I've read another report that Russians are finally in control of Sudzha which I hope is true this time. I think Ukraine will dig in here and it'll become the frontline.

TheValeyard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122494041#Comment_122494041

Why do you want the Russians in control of Sudzha?

Dubh Geannain

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122494000#Comment_122494000

As RoyalCelt said. There's another vid that appears to show this is a captured piece of kit.

Sunny Disposition

Putin must be so frustrated. He took Crimea so easily, he must have felt Ukraine would be defeated within weeks, that the West would huff and puff, but sanctions would pass relatively quickly. Now he finds himself an international pariah, under massive pressure.

He could have lived a very content life, but he just bit off more than he could chew and Russia has actually been invaded now. It's a hellish vision for him.

RoyalCelt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122494047#Comment_122494047

Ukrainians 😂

But yeah I seen that BTR initially reported as Ukrainian from pro Ukraine telegram sources but later confirmed as Russian captured as a closer video was taken. Who knows it could be Ukrainian soldier's dressed as Russians but I doubt it.

Just read this however.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1822943152220577829?t=Mq4PAOVIiApS6LB_tM9hpQ&s=19

riddles

I read somewhere the war was costing Russia 300m€ a day. Given the impact of sanction, damage to oil refineries and gas has this figured increased. Add in interest rates of 18% and chronic inflation surely that figures jumped by a lot?

AndyBoBandy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122494105#Comment_122494105

And even rumours alone about the AFU being spotted here/there will be enough to sow even more panic amongst the locals as well as the defending RU forces… make them suspicious of everyone… There were rumours spreading last week that the AFU were disguising themselves as priests..

AFU special forces even covertly painting a few triangles on Russian equipment could be enough to start RU on RU attacks amid the total confusion & incompetence in which they seem to operate

You'd like to think they have a long term plan here, to maybe try and hold onto some of the Kursk oblast for a few weeks/months, let the Russians expend untold amounts of men/equipment to slowly claw it back, and when it looks like Russia finally have it back, pull out while simultaneously opening a new front somewhere else on the border…. all the while easing some of the pressure on the frontlines in Eastern Ukraine.

Probably better for all concerned for Russians to just die in Russia as opposed to dying in Ukraine… probably spares a bit of paperwork too..

roosterman71

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122489445#Comment_122489445

Are these troop movements being hit/targeted at all? Haven't seen anything about it or the AFU trying to move in on the remaining troops

Dubh Geannain

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122494230#Comment_122494230

Long article but a decent read -

Russia Has the Resources for a Long War in Ukraine - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

The Russian authorities are extremely unlikely to choose to cut military spending in order to maintain previous levels of domestic consumption. The economy is destined to become more and more militarized, even if that results in stagnating or falling real incomes. Still, this is unlikely to cause real problems for the regime. Firstly, standards of living would still remain relatively high: certainly, they have a long way to fall until they reach what they were in the Soviet period, not to mention the destitution of the early 1990s. Secondly, growing repression, the embrace of an avowedly militant and nationalistic state ideology, and attacks on free speech have helped the authorities keep a lid on dissent at home. In an extreme case, they can easily crush any public expressions of opposition. The only real risk is if the salary levels of employees of the security apparatus and military personnel fall below current levels—but the authorities have resources to ensure that this does not happen.

In other words, Russia will be able to maintain military spending for a relatively long time, just like other pariah countries. This is bad news for Ukraine, ordinary Russian citizens, people living in neighboring countries, and the overall global security environment.

This is why when Ukraine started hitting Russian product capacity collective Western voices started piping up. Cheap oil is still a desirable goal for Western economies.

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122488405#Comment_122488405

Guaranteed… like clockwork… "I'm just wondering…"

Avatar in the Post

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122494287#Comment_122494287

Source, Russian Fossil tracker.

Any source within the ballpark of credibility?

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122494534#Comment_122494534

The figures don’t look right, vast majority of Russian gas exports were by pipelines to Europe with not much in eastern direction due to distances involved

their LNG was always a small fraction, literally lacking much in way of LNG facilities and only this week a second “shadow” lng ship was acquired by them

Trying to find that German site which keeps up to date gas volumes on all pipelines coming into Europe

Edit; here

https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/european-natural-gas-imports

RoyalCelt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122494230#Comment_122494230

And the cost will go up with the frontline expanding into Russia.

Sunny Disposition

There's still no upside to Putin in using nuclear weapons, so I think it's still very unlikely.

He must be hugely frustrated though, the whole thing has been an epic miscalculation.

thatsdaft

For an offensive that Russians claimed was stopped, things sure just keeps getting worse

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ceq59l90wevo

lol Putin doesn’t want to hear numbers

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1822976702726754525

junkyarddog

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1822975054516264966

A total farce,Goebbels is alive and well it seems.

Avatar in the Post

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122494867#Comment_122494867

Closer to Hitler's not being able to understand the collapse of the German front. Putin's lost his swagger. He must feel very vulnerable right now… from his own side.

RGARDINR

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122494777#Comment_122494777

The only thing he might do is call for full mobilisation. Say we're being invaded and we need to protect the motherland. It's a possibility and just silly as Russia started this war.

Paddigol

In many ways, its another example of the really high levels of tactical nous and ability to adapt to conditions by the UAF. It's been obvious since day 2 of Putin's "special military operation" that the Russian forces are a shambles, poorly led, slow to react and hugely reliant on superiority of numbers and artillery… any time those advantages have been reduced they've been spanked by the Ukrainians. But as long as that fight was taking place on Ukrainian soil, the gains for Ukraine were minimal. So this last week has seen them sidestep Putin's choice of battleground to put on a demonstration elsewhere. It's looking more and more like the Ukrainians are planning to simply lead the Russians on a violent, destructive wild goose chase in their own back yard as the Russians struggle to figure out how to hit back effectively at a mobile, efficient, well equipped, lightweight, fast moving, motivated and disciplined fighting force. The Ukrainians just need to keep moving, ensuring a clear line of retreat available at all times, and hobble the Russians as they try to engage in exactly the same way they have been doing in Ukraine.

Their leading Putin's boys on a merry dance, showing just what an emperor with no clothes he is. Bravo.

CelticRambler

Not to mention that the Russian commanders' preferred tactic of "bomb the beejayzuz out of them first" is unlikely to be widely supported by the local civilian population.

Private Joker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122494912#Comment_122494912

A very good point. This is possibly what Ukraine want, it is something Putin avoided, at least publically and has the potential to destabilise his grip on power.

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122494967#Comment_122494967

Exactly… to use a chess analogy… "check…"

Sweet.Science

I assume the longer this goes on the more chance Putin falls out a window ?

AndyBoBandy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495043#Comment_122495043

either way, you'd hate to be one of his lookalikes these days….. as once he goes, their days are probably numbered too…..

Swan Lake must scare the bejesus out of them!!

TheValeyard

The Geese have sided with the UAF in Kursk.

https://twitter.com/warrior_na92602/status/1822783158636761362

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495043#Comment_122495043

Gerasimov might want to avoid windows

The biggest news here is that command of this “counter terrorism” operation was yanked away from the military and … given to the FSB

Just think about that for a minute, imagine if Mexican army invaded New Mexico and Trump instead of letting Army and Air Force deal with it told the FBI to handle it, insanity

swampgas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495229#Comment_122495229

I suppose it might be down to trust and loyalty, or competence. As is typical in Russia, senior people like Gerasimov are appointed more for their loyalty to Putin rather than for any special competence. In fact too much competence can make you a threat and prevent you getting promoted. Either Putin is becoming frustrated at a loyal Gerasimov's incompetence, or Putin is losing confidence in Gerasimv's loyalty. Or both, or neither, who knows what might be going on in Putin's paranoid mind.

Mech1

Sounds like Putin is looking for a "off ramp" give him a vertical one.

TheValeyard

Not a bad weeks work

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1823017671371202902

thatsdaft

”Ordinary Russians”

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1822953065940406661

rolling boh

Wonder what price Ukraine is paying for this move because it can't last and Putin will do whatever it takes to get Ukraine out .Should Ukraine do a tactical withdraw and target somewhere else ,I don't know but it looks a suicide mission if they think they can keep making ground inside Russia .Hopefully Ukraine can just keep Russia guessing and taking out a lot of the military boththe army and equipment.

Headshot

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495462#Comment_122495462

There's going to be some scarcity of toilets

CelticRambler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495463#Comment_122495463

What part of it so far looks like a "suicide mission"? Sure, we've seen videos of the UAF in vehicles being targetted with FPV drones … but usually followed up by them leaping out of the targetted vehicle and taking cover in the surrounding countryside. And then they go on to capture disenchanted Russians by the 10s and 100s.

Similarly, we have hours and hours and hours of video footage of dead Russians lying all over the Donbas and other Ukrainian killing fields, but almost nothing showing dead Ukrainians. Sure, that could be a propaganda bias, but chances are it's more to do with the Ukrainians being better soldiers … and better humans.

So as long as they don't over-extend themselves, there's no reason to think that Ukraine can't hold on to these captured areas for months if not years, with little additional cost in terms of lives or money compared to facing the Russians head-on in Vovchansk.

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122494796#Comment_122494796

He makes an interesting point which I also saw on BBC: attacks on Russian soil actually more likely to get Russian population behind the war rather than turn them against it. Just basic human psychology.

Still, Ukraine has nothing to lose at this stage, a morale boost was much needed and at the moment this is certainly providing one. The key thing is not to let their troops become encircled and trapped, but I imagine they have plans to prevent that

rogber

Are there any reliable reports on damage to civilian infrastructure and civilian casualties in Kursk? It's impossible to imagine there won't be significant cases of both though though very hard to know where reliable info would come from

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495463#Comment_122495463

Who, exactly, is going to stop Ukraine from taking territory in Russia? It's not going to be Russian farmers with pitchforks, and the Rosgvardia won't be much better. If Russia is intent on doing whatever it takes, then that means taking elite troops and elite materials from other parts of the front and recommitting them to this pocket of Russian territory that Ukraine has carved out.

The Russians can't really do maneuver warfare. They did a bit of it at the start of the invasion, with some notorious calamities and have been stuck relying on attrition via numerical advantage ever since. I can only assume that one reason behind Ukraine trying to rapidly expand their area of control is that they want to pull the Russians this way and that, keeping the battlespace open, and fighting the Russians on the run. The Russians had reconfigured themselves for a dug-in war, but this new front has put a bit of a spanner in those works, and Putin doesn't like it.

RedXIV

If you think about it though, all the Ukrainians need to do is sow chaos and confusion. I don't imagine the long term plan is to annex a slice of Russian land, instead, what we have here is a huge swathe of Russian land that is rapidly getting depopulated by it's inhabitants, either by evacuation or capture of POWs and by the looks of it, the idea is the spread that chaos rather than a targeted attempt to get to the heart of Russia. That would be too easy to counter, but this is destroying logistical routes, altering the prior understood borders of the conflict and surely it's absolutely crippling morale in the Russia areas close to this? Sure if you're on the other side of the country you won't care, but I don't think the average Ivan in Russia is thinking "Oh they invaded us? Now I want to fight back!" as anyone with that spirit likely enlisted already. The ones remaining are far more likely to be thinking "Oh they invaded us? Oh crap, we are in trouble now for kicking a hornets nest"

silliussoddius

Is the Russian army really this sh1t or is there a chance they're holding back in case of NATO getting directly involved?

Nukes were mentioned earlier and it made me think of a youtube video I saw a while back, it was about nuclear weapons/technology in general and the host was talking about the behind the scenes regulations/safety procedures that are required to maintain nuclear arsenals. A bit off topic he said that this is why he thinks Russia's nuclear capabilities are overstated as they are such a basket case and with rampant corruption. I know it's just a youtube channel, but it's the kind of thing that wouldn't surprise me.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495577#Comment_122495577

It's one way that it could go for ordinary Russians to get a taste of this war firsthand and perhaps put pressure on their government to end it…

But, if anything, I'd say it's considerably more likely that Putin would use this event as a rallying cry for full mobilisation. From a Russian propagandistic perspective, what could be more rousing than hordes of Ukrainian Nazis looking to destroy the motherland directly?

Though this obviously depends on how much of the Russian population remains who can be mobilised.

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495515#Comment_122495515

We're into uncharted territory and this is what scares people.

Western and Russian people have been fed the propaganda of Russia strong for decades and to see Ukraine (a country that Russia depended on for it's military personnel and hardware manufacturing) invade Russia just turns their thoughts upside down.

Ukrainians figured out how the blanket dumb bombing won't work when it's putin attacking Russian infrastructure and towns. He doesn't really want to go there yet as he knows it means he lied to people that he was a good leader. It means he led to these events. Everytime he throws someone out a window means it's getting closer to him following the same fate.

RGARDINR

Hopefully something happens to these on route to Russia.

Larbre34

Thats a lovely ballistic missile mate.

Be a shame if anything were to happen to it.

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495680#Comment_122495680

Did Iran already forget they promised to attack Israel

Anyways

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1822660101259313524

rogber

People in Moscow and Petersburg or Ekaterinburg know Ukraine will make no attempt to occupy territory deep in Russia and probably don't really care much what's happening in Kursk, no more than they care about the hundreds of thousands of soldiers killed or injured so far. Russia is very much a society of "keep your head down, don't get involved, just go on as if nothing is happening", and so huge that panic won't spread. There'll be neither patriotic fervour not fear