Russia-Ukraine War

Jinglejangle69

I would love another €50 billion package for Ukraine to be announced out of the blue.

Let’s give them what they need, they have the momentum again.

They can actually finish this off.

thatsdaft

BBC says

https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1823838152144118068

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1823978697709298139

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122504520#Comment_122504520

I'd like to see a bit of progress on the key fronts within Ukraine itself… momentum is with them, so no panic if things don't appear to be changing any time soon, but for sure that's where the difference will be made. I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if Putin ordered the area in Russia held by Ukraine to be obliterated. He couldn't give two f***s about his own people, certainly not those outside the big urban centres.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122504286#Comment_122504286

Yes, and by doing so will increase the logistics chain, and then Ukraine start hitting them in their new locations too. The fact that Ukraine now has long range capabilities, means that they can really disrupt any airborne Russian operations.

CelticRambler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122504359#Comment_122504359

They already do charge the transit tax. That facility is the measuring station that helps calculate how much gas is being supplied and how much has to be paid for the gas to pass through Ukrainian pipelines.

threeball

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122503944#Comment_122503944

Would this be classified as a "dumb on dumb" incident.

CelticRambler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505196#Comment_122505196

Maybe a bit of wishful thinking on my part, but I reckon this incursion, as well as being an up-front taunting of The Master Strategist is also a deliberate distraction from … something else.

Reference has been made to how Russia continues to make small gains on the active frontline further south, and how these troops are not being pulled back to help sort out the Kursk situation. Well, maybe that's exactly the point: have Ukraine manoeuvred Putin/Gerasimov into pulling troops from another area of little activity, with the specific objective of barging in there once the occupying force is sufficiently weakened?

There's been some weird goings-on in and around the Kinburn Spit lately; wouldn't it be great to wake up one morning to the news that Ukraine had crossed the Dnieper estuary in force and was tearing up along the coast towards the "neck" of the Crimean peninsula?

thatsdaft

Sky news says

https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1824009709700956429

weisses

If I was Putin I would do the bare minimum in Kursk. Let Ukraine use their manpower and other resources, which then cannot be used in the east, Ukraine cannot overstretch itself logistically, I doubt they have any interest in staying in Kursk long term.

thatsdaft

Ukraine have much much shorter supply routes being on the inside of a semicircle

And Russians in three years of their Three Day war have illustrated time and time again logistics is not their strong point, hell only this week we have MOD reporting that they can’t even supply enough drinking water

At start of this Kursk special operation a week ago we had posts claiming Ukrainians won’t have the logistics to sustain this, yet not only the area continues to expand we have evidence of food aid being disturbed to civilians

Meanwhile Kursk governor begging Putin to pull troops from elsewhere to help Kursk

https://twitter.com/MalcontentmentT/status/1824007257627222444

weisses

I used the term overstretch, It can happen when you are gaining momentum and you want to use the opportunity of facing little resistance to push forward. I don't know the goal of this Ukrainian incursion but I wouldn't be to worried from a Russian perspective. I was hoping they would go for the Nuclear power plant, encircle Belgorod, at least something that would warrant an immediate relocation of Russian troops from the Eastern front

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505484#Comment_122505484

"At the start of this Kursk special operation a week ago we had posts claiming Ukrainians won't have the logistics to sustain this…" What's your point? A week ago we also had people being berated for suggesting that Ukraine were looking to hold territory in Russia… what's your obsession with trying to discredit other good-faith posters? You remind me of another poster who used to do the same thing until thread banned a few months ago…

Sweet.Science

So many Russians handing themselves over to Ukraine is becoming a logistical issue. What can they do with so many POWs on Russia's own land.

Avatar in the Post

We've been here before, but if 100% applied things will get interesting in Russia.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cy54nn4v471t

Avatar in the Post

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505553#Comment_122505553

WOW! Maybe Putin is a master strategist after all. Who else would be smart enough to clog up the enemy logistics other than 4D level genius?

🤡

Avatar in the Post

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505521#Comment_122505521

Ah, there's loads of reasons the Ukrainian SMO into Russia is worthwhile. It really doesn't take much thinking to be honest.

rogber

Poor woman sentenced to 12 years in jail for raising 50 dollars for Ukrainian war effort

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/aug/15/russia-ukraine-war-live-kursk-evacuations-nord-stream

CelticRambler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505484#Comment_122505484

Just came across this commentary on Russian logistics, and how the Kursk incursion could have (intended?) consequences for the more active frontline areas:

https://twitter.com/Schizointel/status/1823737718582526037

It's a long thread, but here's the meat of it (slightly paraphrased to make it more readable!) :

another issue that Russia is going to face logistically in organizing a counter-offensive in Kursk currently [is that] Russian supply lines through the [Motorised Transport, as opposed to rail] Brigade will be stretched in order to supply the Russian FLOT. […]

Russian forces currently engaged against the ukrainians will not have the most efficient and adequate supplies in timely manner which will likely result in more land being captured by the ukrainians which they can't afford […]

if Ukraine gets too close to any of the areas that I highlighted such as Rylsk, Lgov, Chermoshnoi, Selikhovy Dvory, Oboyan, and Rakitnoe then logistically speaking, their lines to Belgorod and Kursk will be even further degraded and then it will become a siege and it will be a matter of time before Ukraine captures two major Russian population centers.

[…] they cannot afford to allow Ukraine to advance further and must Marshal necessary forces to counter-attack. The problem with that though is to rally the forces needed. They will need to strip the logistical resources from the front lines in Ukraine which will make those areas vulnerable to Ukrainian counter-attack

This all sounds plausible, and the recent feck-ups - stationary columns being easy pickings for the Ukrainians, and Russian Air Force bombing their own supply trucks - are reminiscent of how they lost Kyiv due to their own 40-mile traffic jam.

Incidentally, today's "Reporting from Ukraine" YT channel talks about how the Ukranians spread "get out now" information to the Kursk public, causing them to clog up the main routes into Kursk and bogging-down the Russian troops. I haven't heard any other accounts of this, but it sounds like something the Ukranians might do!

In any case, I can see a scenario developing where Ukraine gradually eliminate viable supply routes for the Russian forces still in Urkanian territory. Blowing up the Kerch bridge would then create an almightly bottleneck on the few remaining corridors and be a prime target for missile and drone attacks.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505553#Comment_122505553

They would obviously be brought straight back into Ukraine - not safe for them to remain near the fighting (and Ukraine has a duty of care to keep them out of harm's way).

TheValeyard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505407#Comment_122505407

There is footage (though debatable) of a Challenger two getting destroyed yesterday. Some of the usual pro UAF accounts say it's a Challenger others 2A5 Leopard

Avatar in the Post

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505637#Comment_122505637

Putin is simply building his next prisoner exchange cohort.

Hande hoche!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505589#Comment_122505589

The exception being the storm shadow missiles. Which is a shortcoming of sorts.

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505543#Comment_122505543

See now you are just projecting what you yourself are doing onto others

Do you have anything constructive to reply about the post you quoted which discussed issues of logistics or do you want to continue attacking other posters whose point you might not agree with but don’t seem to have the debating capacity to counter and instead go on a personal attack

Avatar in the Post

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505755#Comment_122505755

That's what I was alluding to. I didn't see where these were continuing to be excluded. SMH if so.

Hande hoche!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505763#Comment_122505763

It seems a pointless red line. Still hopefully given time….

Dohnjoe

Deafening silence from the "I just want this to end" crowd. Haven't come across any of them calling for Russia to give up it's land in exchange for peace. Odd that.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505649#Comment_122505649

That doesn't make sense to me. Rylsk is at the end of a spur.

https://liveuamap.com/

While Lgov has a through-line, the UAF already have control over that line further south.

They would have to get as far as Kursk before they start to impact any other rail routes.

Most/all of their equipment and resources will be coming from the east.

As the Guardian says today, most of the land that Ukraine is occupying has little strategic value in itself. It only becomes valuable if the Russians try to oust them.

riffmongous

Double post

Virgil°

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505776#Comment_122505776

They haven't been handed their new scripts yet. Or maybe they're keeping their heads down in case they get sent to catch HIMARs rounds in Kursk.

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505776#Comment_122505776

Also waiting for people like Wagenknecht in Germany, Wallace at home, useful idiots like Roger Waters to come out with statements like "Russia should simply withdraw from Kursk, fighting will only prolong the suffering of Russians and serve the interests of warmongers".

Yet Wagenknecht for one has the absolute nerve to call the invasion a "dangerous escalation", no longer even pretending not to be pro Russian

Sephiroth_dude

Mod

AndyBoBandy I deleted your post, please don't advocate for war crimes to happen, for either side, that goes for everyone.

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505637#Comment_122505637

Collecting political prisoners is almost an industry over there it seems. I've a friend, living in China for close on 20 years now, married to a Russian and with a few kids… you'd be absolutely insane to pop over to the motherland for a visit. Going by his social media posts he's been there in the past year visiting in laws… not a hope in hell I'd take the risk.

keeponhurling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505812#Comment_122505812

Your point about Kursk having little strategic value is interesting.

I initially thought the Russians were just taken by surprise, and given they were already stretched needed time to react.

But as time goes on, maybe that is the case. Maybe they are thinking "go ahead, just take Kursk". It doesn't feel like they are doing everything they can to retake the ground. But maybe I'm giving them too much credit here.

Otherwise it would seem that the Russian military is really on the floor here and it will be very hard for them to sustain a hot war of this intensity for much longer. Let alone to restore the borders of Peter the Great's time, or whoever Putin is trying to emulate.

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505978#Comment_122505978

Yes, wouldn't go near the place for as long as these maniacs are in charge, any foreigner is potential pawn in a future prisoner swap game

SoapMcTavish

https://www.rte.ie/news/2024/0815/1465055-ukraine-russia/

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he met top officials to discuss the humanitarian situation and establish a military commandant's offices "if needed" in an occupied area that Kyiv said exceeds 1,000sq/km."

Will Russia let the UN in ?

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505782#Comment_122505782

As well as being completely repugnant .

I hope no one will defend what was suggested and it would be nice if the poster of that trash was to have a complete change of heart and request that their post be deleted .

Edit I hadn't seen that the mods have deleted that post now....

junkyarddog

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1823839536167735341

The Ukrainians are doing the exact opposite of what the russians would do to them.

Remarkable really,considering.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122506049#Comment_122506049

I should clarify my original post that parts of Kursk Oblast have little strategic value. Kursk city would have considerable strategic value, but I can't see the Ukrainian offensive going that far. It would be very exposed on both flanks, their supply chains would be vulnerable and the manpower required to surround and capture a city of half a million would be well beyond UAF capabilities at the moment.

thatsdaft

Please not too deep

https://twitter.com/TOGAjano21/status/1823951195657928924

amandstu

If Ukraine can keep a sizeable amount of Russian territory (and threaten a repeat elsewhere) I wonder how this will affect Donny VS 's plan to stop the war in 24 hours if he gets in?

Should he be asked by one of his suck it in "interviewers" if his plan for Ukraine is still viable ?

Jinglejangle69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122506314#Comment_122506314

I reckon this was planned with a view that Donald would be back in come November and if Ukraine are forced into negotiations this would be a good bargaining chip.

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505553#Comment_122505553

Could we run a temporary Luas line up the middle of the road there?

thatsdaft

In a parallel timeline

Where US invaded Mexico (oh I don’t know Nazi gangs or something) three years ago, and three years later Mexican army is rolling from town to town inside Arizona even tho an equal amount of land in Baja California state is occupied still

Would anyone call that a stategic success for the perpetrators of such a silly war?

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122506362#Comment_122506362

It also brought Ukraine back to the front pages in a big way which is bad for Trump as the majority of Americans are for supporting Ukraine. His stance is a vote loser.

Avatar in the Post

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122506049#Comment_122506049

Regardless of strategic value. To think Russia being successfully invaded is in anyway not a disaster, foremost for Putin, is to not know much about Putin and by extension, Russia.

Overheal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505407#Comment_122505407

Seems bold tbh, I'd have wanted to go in a liberated Russian tank to sow paranoia and chaos inside russia.

Or if I may be so bold, go one further and charge in in one of those venerated Ukrainian tractors

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122506362#Comment_122506362

I heard that too ,maybe on the radio.

Time to pin the Sexual Predator in Chief to the collar and get his "thoughts" on the situation and ask has he been in contact with his Russian buddies recently?

thatsdaft

https://united24media.com/latest-news/ukrainian-forces-take-control-of-82-settlements-and-expand-1150-km2-in-kursk-region-1763

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have captured 82 settlements and moved in 1,150 km² and 35 km in depth since the beginning of Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region in Russia.

This was reported by Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine 

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122501554#Comment_122501554

For context, this is what I said a week ago today:

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122478355#Comment_122478355

My view then, and also my view now, is that Ukraine attacked Russia where Russia was weak, that they may dig in but that their primary focus is on causing as much damage to the Russian military as possible, with secondary goals of redicting troops from elsewhere, cutting logistics and proving that they can use US vehicles on Russian soil without nuclear retaliation.

To expand on this, at the end of the day, in a war you have to fight somewhere. Sooner or later two armies will confront each other directly in a kinetic exchange. If that is inevitable, then you have to accept that, embrace it, and try to create conditions where your army is at an advantage, the other army is at a disadvantage or, as here, both.

Are they trying to take and hold territory - yes, but only insofar as it provides them with tactical/operational advantages. Is this being done to improve their negotiating strength - no, at least not directly. Indirectly, Ukraine's negotiating strength is improved when they defeat Russia on the battlefield or in other key areas such as economic / diplomatic pressure. Ukraine simply isn't interested in ceeding territory to Russia, so the suggestion that is often made (not sure if you are directly making it or not) that by taking Kursk they can trade it off for say Kherson and let Russia take Donbas and Crimea is not based in reality.

Ukraine have no interest in any negotiations that don't involve the complete withdrawal of Russian troops. That could only change if they are defeated on the battlefield and even then it is not guaranteed because conceding territory to Russia could result in the political collapse of the Ukrainian state.

The bottom line, as I've said before, is that to understand what is happening you shouldn't look at the dog in the fight, but rather the fight in the dog. Russia may have a larger military on paper, and it unquestionably has a larger economy than Ukraine. But for Ukraine the fight is existential, whereas, despite Putin's assertions to the contrary, it is a war of choice for Russia. Ukraine have no option but to fight, whereas Russia do.

So if you are, meaning no disrespect to you personally, looking at the war as the Russians would like you to do, being that the bigger side will always win and the smaller side must make concessions, its easy to fall into the trap of thinking that the Ukranians look at it from that point of view as well, and in that context, taking a piece of Russia to improve the negotiating position makes sense.

But I would suggest that the correct way of looking at this is that Ukraine has the same options that faced Kyle Rees and Sarah Conor - either they stop the terminator or they will die. It cannot be bargained with, it doesn't feel pity or remorse. Ukraine has to fight. In that context, the benefits of this operation are manifest and the downside risks were moderate but acceptable. As it turned out, it has worked out very well so far, and there has been almost no downside. It was never intended as a stunt or as a bargaining chip, but as a further step towards defeating Russia. Long may that continue.

Markcheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505432#Comment_122505432

He can do that , and the Ukrainians dig in along a line that suits them, and head south east into Belegerod, blocking off russian supply lines to the kharkiv and then the Donbass as they go..

It's just the scenic route to Rostov-on Don ,