Russia-Ukraine War

Markcheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122507337#Comment_122507337

The Russians have managed to hit a few , at least 2 went back to the states to be rebuilt ,

Reported that the crew of this one are safe , so that's a big plus ,

rolling boh

Find it difficult to read exactly how things are going as I don't want Russia gaining more ground in Ukraine while Ukraine are occupied with what they are doing in Russia .I am not convinced the cross border push by Ukraine is going to have the impact on Russia that most on here hoped .The area is too vast to gain before real panic starts with the general population to maybe put Putin in danger .I hope I am wrong of course .

Widdensushi

Russian economy, army is gone back 100 years, the amount of resources, military equipment, missiles being lost /used daily is frightening, must be hitting a billion some days, not a mind bleeding their country of people, any that can find a way out will leave,keep it going for a few years more and they will be throwing rocks.

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122508613#Comment_122508613

The idea that the incursion would trigger some popular uprising to depose Putin, that Russian soldiers would run away as soon as the first shot was fired, was fanciful and pushed by the same folk who always get ahead of themselves any time something happens. The reports from last couple of days make it clear Ukraine is doing something bold but very risky and already paying a high price, both within Russia and in terms of territory back home. I felt from the beginning only in hindsight will we see how wise and successful a move it was. Not only Putin's but also Zelensky and his top military people's reputation have a lot riding on this, particularly as it seems the West knew little about it. A delicate balancing act:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cql365ld002o

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122508565#Comment_122508565

God that's grim. More wives and parents and children who've lost family, a reminder that the reality of war is a long way removed from all of us following it on the media...

vswr

Quite telling about the state of Russian aircraft…. they were really pushing the use of the TU-22's the last few weeks as a projection of force (fastest heavy bomber in the world etc…..)

Then one goes bang while doing so

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122508376#Comment_122508376

Just.

Following.

Orders.

* https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superior_orders

silverharp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122508641#Comment_122508641

or in hindsight how dumb it was, short of creating some short term headlines I dont see how the Ukrainians will hold on to this land long enough to turn it into a negotiating chip, Its a real head scratcher, im not sure Ukraine have expendable reserves at this stage

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122508825#Comment_122508825

Go back and read this post and then let us have your thoughts…

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122506540#Comment_122506540

It's easy to pick a single bad news story and come out with one-sentence pronouncements, but that doesn't do much for the overall discussion.

Edit: also, I'm not sure you have any insight into Ukraine's reserves? I'd have a lot of confidence in the Ukrainians' ability to judge the resources available to them here… they've hardly put a foot wrong in the war to date.

Markcheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122508613#Comment_122508613

It's not so much Russian general population "panic" ,as russian logistics, rail in particular, the Ukrainians have one of the major supply lines under artillery fire , and while it's far from the only line ,it'll putting serious extra pressure on an already creaking Russian rail system…

gw80

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122508641#Comment_122508641

Who said this would cause a populist uprising, and that the russians would run away at the first shot ?.( some didn't wait, or run away, they threw their hands in the air as quickly as possible) there must be some serious armpit injuries over throwing their arms up so quickly.

TheValeyard

UAF managed to take out another supply column

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1824328611643486280

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122508825#Comment_122508825

Just as a few days ago it was too early to say it was a masterstroke, it's also too early to say it was a big mistake based on some bad news. If lots more soldiers get killed or captured and more territory is lost in Ukraine, it will look bad and could do serious damage to Zelensky and the military going forward. But we are not there yet, the situation is still evolving. Let's give it another week or two...

Roald Dahl

How may are in this 810th murder gang? They may slow things up, but they will hopefully also be dealt with comprehensively along the way.

It will be difficult on an individual level for Ukrainians not to respond in kind, but ultimately they will need to to not let themselves - as they have peerlessly done up to now - sink to the levels of deviant, degenerate depravity of the Russians. This is of course the correct course of action,no matter how satisfying retaliation may be at the time. Those who joyously commit these type of atrocities, and are additionally hailed as heroes by their regime, will have will have to be suffered by wider society in the future. These brutes will go on to inflict harm on anyone that crosses their path if they emerge out the other side of this war.

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122508916#Comment_122508916

Both things were claimed here over the previous few days, anyone who's been following the thread closely saw it. Read through all the posts since the weekend and you'll see them, I don't have the time to trawl back through them and am not interested in points scoring. But the claims were made, and they weren't even the wildest ones

silverharp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122508885#Comment_122508885

I think that is way off. Fundamentally the Russian view in that post does not express their reality (dont at me) but the Russians see this war as existential not one of choice , their people see this conflict as a NATO proxy war with the goal of breaking up Russia, they aint turning and fleeing, the Russians are playing this as an attrition strategy their logic is you attrit the other side until they crack. All wars end right? at the end of this Ukraine will still exist but it will have smaller borders , they will lose some section of the east of the country, the rest is just horse trading

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122508934#Comment_122508934

Good news if true

rogber

A mix of good and bad news on BBC: hundreds of Russian soldiers captured, airbases hit, but progress is slowing in Kursk and more territory slipping away in Ukraine...

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c8dpgeq01n0t

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122508964#Comment_122508964

You have created a strawman, inventing a narrative to be contrarian against for some weird bizarre reason

Now go ahead and post proof of these posts you claim you seen here

thatsdaft

Another Russian column swatted out of existence near Koronevo by HIMARs according to Russians

source: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/s/LvlQjUzDEg

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509004#Comment_122509004

The Kremlin claims that it is existential for Russia. That is not at all the same as saying the Russian people view it as existential.

There is clear evidence to suggest that the Russian people dont consider it existential, from it being called a special military operation to Prigozhins mutiny to the resistance to mobilisation to the shock at what happened in Kursk.

People may accept and repeat the line that it is an existential issue, but they dont really believe it. Unfortunately youve fallen for a Kremlin lie

thatsdaft

Another mass surrender of Russians

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1824346879133471219

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122508825#Comment_122508825

….

https://twitter.com/jaanus/status/1824297995438850522

silverharp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509075#Comment_122509075

I think their government believes it and their people are with them, Im sure there is always dissenting opinion but it makes no odds. Im not falling for anything, the point is I dont see Russia collapsing or somehow doing a coup against Putin, that's fantasy land.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509075#Comment_122509075

Yes, there is a big distinction between the views of…well Putin and the ordinary Russian people. Vlad Vexler talks about this in his latest video. He actually hits on a few points that have been discussed in this thread recently

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jFuV1UxaCE&t=635s

TLDR: Regardless of what happens in Kursk Putin won't likely face any backlash from the Russian People. That's because the Russian people have been "radically depoliticised" i.e. brain washed against thinking that they have any agency when it comes to politics. For them events like what's happening in Kursk are more akin to natural disasters rather than the consequences of bad political decisions by Putin.

scottser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122508825#Comment_122508825

What does Ukraine's incursion into Russia really mean? | Responsible Statecraft

Fill your boots.

gw80

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122508964#Comment_122508964

I have been paying attention closely, and I'm pretty sure nobody said those things, but shur look,

Even if this excursion is stopped in it's tracks today and even if all them are killed by the Russian orks isn't it a testament to these brave men who marched into the breach with courage not really knowing the reaction from Russia, and not under threat of being shot or imprisoned if they didn't drive on,

They do in the hope of contributing to freeing their country from being under the control of Russia and in the hope of providing a better future for their families,

Unlike the russians who are scuttling across Ukraine like cockroaches for no real decernible reason,christ some of them even think they are fighting Poland, that's how clued in these dregs are.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509211#Comment_122509211

Yes, you can see that in any recent Russian vox pop. They talk about the war as if it is something happening in Peru or Tibet…something that doesn't involve them and over which they have no agency. The idea that their opinion could in any way influence the outcome of the war seems beyond alien to them. The fact that their own country has been invaded barely even seems to register with them.

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122508945#Comment_122508945

The thing is, even if the Ukrainians do withdraw, I'll bet it's in an organised manner and along pre-planned lines. It'll still have been a successful operation despite any withdrawal as it'll have seriously damaged Russian morale, prestige not to mention the destruction of equipment and facilities, defences constructed.

As long as they don't haemorrhage men and equipment, it's basically a win/win for Ukraine.

The armchair general in me would love to see a bit more fluidity to their push… a bit like water going downhill. But if they are actually aiming to take specific targets then that's not an option. So I guess their approach will tell a lot in that respect.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122508825#Comment_122508825

What's dumb about it? Let's see..

It has already diverted Russian forces from the frontlines elsewhere. It's been a huge boost to morale for Ukraine. If they hold any of it, the land can be used as a vital bargaining chip. They have captured hundreds of Russian POWs which can be exchanged. It's once again embarrassed and exposed the Russian leadership and military. It has created world headlines, which is critical for Ukraine to keep the war in the public's eye. It's also created a tactical headache for the Russians who have to expend resources reinforcing that entire border line. It's shown how dynamic the Ukrainian military can be.

If the Russians push them back, the Ukrainians will be in advantageous defensive positions, the Russians will be obliterating their own country to do so, and for what? Best case scenario they reclaim some of their own territory.

The risks? That plus some weakness on the Eastern front which is being ground away anyway inch by inch.

RedXIV

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122508376#Comment_122508376

It's worth acknowledging the courage the young fella he referenced in his squad who refused to go forward and kill and was shot for his disobedience. It was likely a known consequence of his actions and he did it anyway.

There is some brave people there, whether folks like to admit it or not. Its just a shame they are in such a minority

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509004#Comment_122509004

Who do you mean when you say the 'Russians' - the current members of the Russian army? The population of the entire of Russia? Or just the population of Moscow, St. Petersburg etc? Or just the provincial Russians? Because for the size of the country, I don't see the massive queues of Russians lining up to volunteer that you'd expect in an existential war. I do hear a lot of talk of conscripts. And before you mention Ukrainian conscripts, there is a vast difference in population size as well as the fact that as the invaded country (i) their volunteers have already been fighting for a couple of years and (ii) many Ukrainians, facing an existential threat, fled from the war with their families in the early weeks/ months.

I don't see any evidence of the Russians seeing this war as an existential threat. There was no threat before Putin ordered the invasion - he was at great pains to tell everyone that. There's been hardly any attacks on Russian territory. And there's been no sign of any popular resistance to the Ukrainians to date.

Which all makes sense - even thinking back to WW2, the only point at which the poorly equipped and unmotivated Russians stopped running from the Germans was when it ultimately did become an existential fight for survival. At that point, for sure, the Russians' ability to endure proved decisive. Right now, I don't see the Russians rushing to fight an enemy who aren't coming for them, in defence of an elite who even they surely can see don't give two f**ks about them.

rolling boh

Ideally I would love to see Ukraine beating the Russians back from land taken by the Russians rather than Ukraine taking fairly inconsequential in the grand scheme of things land in Russia .I can't see Ukraine getting the upper hand in both cases .Is the trade off worth the trouble ,just can't see Ukraine sustaining it .No doubt it was great boost for morale but that won't last if the price is high which unfortunately it proberly is .Time will tell of course .

weisses

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509240#Comment_122509240

From your link

"My worry is that in the longer term, Ukraine, which is facing dangerous shortfalls in manpower and equipment, will deplete elite units that would have been needed elsewhere. In a war of attrition, manpower and equipment are essential. 

But in material terms, not much can be expected in terms of lasting impact. Ukraine will be forced to retreat from Russia, and its surviving troops and equipment will be redistributed, after rest and refit, to other critical areas of Ukraine’s front with Russia."

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509034#Comment_122509034

Here's one about Kursk being precursor to march on Moscow:

Re: Russia-Ukraine War
by W******* · 4 days ago ·
They should be measuring it in distance from Moscow,,, the countdown is on

And here's the other:

Re: Russia-Ukraine War
by Th****** · 2 days ago
Literally,first shot fired and they'll surrender

If you didn't insist on it I wouldn't even bother. But you did insist. You really need to get over your obsession with trying to "catch people out", it wastes your and their time

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509366#Comment_122509366

Let's look at this in simple terms: you say that the cost of Ukraine's operation in Kursk is probably high. I say that the price of Ukraine driving at Russian lines in the east would almost certainly be far higher.

I'm no Sun Tzu, but even I know that armies should seek to strike the enemy where they are weak, not where they are strong.

OK, if the land Ukraine is occupying is really just inconsequential, then I'm sure it won't particularly bother Putin to let them have it.

doyle55

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509185#Comment_122509185

Surprise the Russian stooge David Sacks uses Kyiv to describe the Ukrainian capital.

His paymaster won't be happy.

Say my name

One of the results of Putin closing off Russia to become North Korea II has been the desertion of trained flight crew and pilots from it's national airline Aeroflot to other countries and airlines abroad.

He was never the sharpest tool in the box but somehow the public cowed under his thugs to now see Russia fall apart and become a sister of North Korea.

http://sibreal.org/a/chernye-lebedi-v-rossiyskom-nebe-voyna-i-grazhdanskaya-aviatsiya/33079984.html

Words from Кара-Мурза.

http://twitter.com/sibrealii/status/1824331512445091848

Earlier, Kara-Murza expressed the opinion that after the fall of the Putin regime, the Russian people will have a lot of work to do to correct their mistakes, and the most important task will be healing and education regarding the events that took place, as well as accepting public responsibility for what happened.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509366#Comment_122509366

It's not just territory… it's Russia diverting forces in response to this, and possibly having to focus more on defence in future. And Ukraine using the incursion, from advanced positions hitting Russian targets, logistics - assets being used to wage war in Ukraine.

So even if Ukraine withdraws from the territory, it will have permanently altered the future equation.

Virgil°

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509310#Comment_122509310

Not to mention the biggest thing. Which is as most people suspected: That the Russian red lines are simply fashioned from whole cloth. We literally have Marders and Bradleys rolling around capturing internationally recognized Russian territory and Putin hasn't even declared war yet!

No nukes, not even a threat of mobilization. The drip drip escalation management strategy is now completely redundant.

Still it's incredibly frustrating to see Bidens administration still not allowing ATACMs and even the Brits not allowing Storm Shadow on Russian territory. Just imagine the great things Ukraine could be doing if they were actually let off the leash.

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509513#Comment_122509513

Yes it should be full licence to use all weapons in self defence, which means no deliberate targeting of civilians, but everything else is fair game, including on Russian territory.

This is a war, every day people are dying and suffering horrible injuries, it needs to end asap and letting Ukraine play their full hand is the best hope of that

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509465#Comment_122509465

Zero chance of Russia accepting any responsibility. I can't think of many countries apart from Germany post WWII that accepted responsibility for what happened. And that only happened after much of their country was destroyed and under the complete control of the victors who were able to get the guilt trip going.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_collective_guilt

Even if this ends well for Ukraine, there's no chance of Russia paying reparations and I hope the sanctions remain in place until at some point in the future it fractures into its constituent republics, only capable of acting the bollix with each other and let the rest of us get on with our lives without their interference.

scottser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509372#Comment_122509372

A real long term worry indeed but that's only if Ukraine get caught in another situation where their forces are under attrition. Ukraine has shown that fast counter-offences behind enemy lines yield far better results and if anything, you might see Russia imitating them.

RoyalCelt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122508738#Comment_122508738

I have my doubts it crashed like this due to a fault. Personally I think the Ukrainians managed to take it out but Russia will never admit that unless it's absolutely obvious and even then sometimes they'd deny it.

In other news I see a HIMARS system was taken out by an iskander missile. It's incredible that in 2 and a half years of this war only 2/3 of them have been taken out. At that rate they're easily replaced and I believe one of the others taken out was sent away for repairs so not fully destroyed.

TheValeyard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509430#Comment_122509430

What? I'm not trying to catch anyone out.

I simply said that those lads who refused to fight and are been sent to Kursk, will fire off a couple rounds then surrender.

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509513#Comment_122509513

I don't understand why they don't just privately tell the Ukrainians that they can use those long-range weapons whatever way they want within the limits of the Geneva Convention. And then just pull a Putin and gaslight/ deny when the Russians start complaining.

There's no need to play the whole thing out in the world's media - we don't need a press conference with Biden/ Starmer announcing that those weapons can no be used.

Let Putin start shouting when it happens, and then just kind of "oh, we've no report of that… are you sure?… we'll investigate"…

weisses

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509606#Comment_122509606

Dont you follow the war ? Ukraine's forces are under pressure in the east with Russian forces gaining ground every day.

RE offensives, Russia did exactly that at day one of this war…. Broke through Ukraine's border defence with ease. It is what happened after that is interesting, because Ukraine might face the same issue

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509606#Comment_122509606

The Russians have shown zero capacity to be able to conduct fast, effective mobile assaults to date. I'd almost like to see them try it, because I'm pretty sure they'd be dispatched without much trouble by the Ukrainians.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509689#Comment_122509689

Just let them use what they want.

It's very clear at this stage that cowardly Putin isn't gonna back up all this talk provocation and escalation.

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509694#Comment_122509694

Can we deal with facts for a second - the 'day one of this war' you're referring to is the worst possible comparator as it was literally the opening shots of a lightening invasion which Putin had promised the world was not happening… just military exercises in Russia he said. Of course they were going to have a huge impact. But all it demonstrates is that even with every advantage conceivable, the Russian army is a relative shambles. And it's only degenerated since then.

There is almost no grounds to compare that event with this incursion by the UAF. The Ukrainians drove the Russians back through use of speed and adaptability. When have Russia shown any capacity for that in this war? They rely solely on (a) overwhelming numbers and (b) artillery firepower. As soon as that looks to be the threat to the Ukrainians in Kursk they can just withdraw to whatever defensive lines they've set without losing as much as a single metre of Ukrainian territory. Rinse and repeat.