Russia-Ukraine War

thatsdaft

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1826971510197698886

Popcorn time

anonymouscactus

Putin looking very weak and unable to maintain order at the moment with everything from the prison takeover to the Kursk incursion. This is very, very damaging for a 'strong man' who rules through fear and the promise of order. Having lived through the 80s when Russia/USSR was a genuine 'superpower' I am shaking my head everyday at the growing chaos… and Russia seems to have no answer to it.

Avatar in the Post

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122535620#Comment_122535620

I made the assumption first, then you changed to Chemical weapons. Read back through the muck, I had to.

Re the question. Do you think Ukraine should be the ones to look for peace with Russia and - follow up, separate question - would you advocate Ukraine give up land if Putin said he'd agree to stop fighting.

Avatar in the Post

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122535623#Comment_122535623

It's not innocuous to suggest Ukraine should not go on the offensive, it's very much to the core of a certain belief. And you should know.

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122535556#Comment_122535556

My concern would be that nuclear weapons should (a) never be used again (b) or only in self defence

It would be best if they could be monitored out of existence but people have not agitated for that.

If a tactical nuke was used in any circumstance at all there is a risk of escalation to strategic nuclear weapons and a mind numbing global disaster for us all…and I feel all talk on the internet about their realistic use is really loose talk.(hear no evil…. is my maxim)

junkyarddog

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1826957261194875138

Poor old Vlad,guy really can't catch a break!

Looking a bit nervous.

Dubh Geannain

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122533410#Comment_122533410

To sum up:

Su-34 destroyed in maintenance and repair area

Su-24 (retired) destroyed in maintenance and repair area

Su-34 destroyed/damaged beyond repair in shelter 3

Su-34 damaged in shelter 5

Su-34 damaged in shelter 6

Su-24 possibly damaged in shelter 7

From:

https://twitter.com/MarcinRogowsk14/status/1826684125480141113

Suckler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122535639#Comment_122535639

I made the assumption first, then you changed to Chemical weapons. Read back through the muck, I had to.

Thank you. You made the initial assumption. I cannot change your assumption. I started off with 'retribution' nothing about nukes etc. Three posters jumped on it assuming nukes.

I wrote 'retribution' in post 4818 - Your immediate assumption was 'nukes'. So yes I read your 'muck' and you remain incorrect in your initial assumption and contiued assertion that 'nukes' are what I was referring to.

Do you think Ukraine should be the ones to look for peace with Russia

No; (from memory) the Chechen cease fires in the 90's benefitted Russia in regrouping at the time and going at it again.

Also at this stage, I think Putin would see that as Ukraine being out of men, machines and missiles and be an opportunity for him. Also would the propaganda around it be good for him; if it made him look weak would he be able to do it? I doubt it. After Ukraine's first foray into Russia the 'lets talk this out' flag would/could be seen as surrender.

This is also on the premise that the west keep up support for Ukraine.

would you advocate Ukraine give up land if Putin said he'd agree to stop fighting.

Can't answer that in all honesty, it isn't a black and white question at the moment.

In an ideal world, Ukraine can push them back all the way across the border with two fingers to talks; - fantastic, but how plausible is that? Is Crimea part of that discussion?

Yes to giving up land, if support was starting to wane in the west and it looked like they were on an inevitable way to losses everywhere. They'd have to. But we're a ways from that yet. What happens in the US elections could also affect it.

Given the current lift the Kursk incursion has given them, it will be interesting to see what they can hold both North and South and I doubt Ukraine would be first to the table right now.

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122535667#Comment_122535667

“Stability” says the billboard

Virgil°

Aww I was so excited to see so many unread posts. Something exciting maybe happening. Nope just a contrarian scuttering up the thread. :(

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122535695#Comment_122535695

The cool and interesting thing about these attacks is it seems like Ukraine are now loading their drones with pellets to scattershot the planes on these airfields. Much like the Tungsten rounds on the HIMARS.

While it's nice to see burned out plane husks, it's likely the damage is far more severe than can be seen from satellite. As when you look up close you can see they pepper the entire area with holes. A thin piece of corrugated steel for a hangar won't stop this. And these planes are notoriously bad at flying when they've been filled with holes.

https://youtu.be/W_Vnytjdcrc?t=365

TheValeyard

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1826949839701086685

This is it for Crimea isnt it?

No more fuel ships, no more ferry crossings.

There only option is the fuel train and we all know what happened last time.

Id reckon that's probably what Ukraine is waiting for.

TheValeyard

This lad needs to be careful of windows

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1827006192704528769

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122535660#Comment_122535660

He didn't suggest that FFS, it was inferred on thin grounds and he went out of his way to respond quickly and specifically to every dig thrown at him. His post is what I quoted - you and others have wrecked everyone's heads for four pages now trying to drag an agenda out of him. And it seems if you defend yourself from the 'narrative' line now you're labelled a contrarian. Maybe a few of ye need to go off and start a new One Narrative Only Ukraine thread instead of losing your knickers every time you read a post that doesn't chime with your narrative. It's beyond tedious.

AndyBoBandy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122536127#Comment_122536127

There only option is the fuel train and we all know what happened last time.

Even thats not an option due to the weakening of the rail lines on the bridge from the previous fire/explosion.

Maybe they could send half full tanker carriages on the rail bridge, but hopefully the bridge is taken out soon enough…

thomil

Isn’t there a newly built rail line through the occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblast? I mean granted, that’s still within Ukrainian drone strike range, but I think Russia can get in supplies that way.

SchrodingersCat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122536527#Comment_122536527

yep. Even the Ukrainians said that the bridge wasn’t as much of a target now as it was.

junkyarddog

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1827037630074384544

Oil depot fire spreading.

zv2

….

https://twitter.com/u_me_reality/status/1827038111060389966

RoyalCelt

Can't be a coincidence the last oil train ferry that was working to Crimea gets sunk at the same time that massive facility in Rostov is hit. I wonder does the oil for the crimean crossing come from Rostov.

It's been a few costly days for Russia with the air field being struck in Volgograd. Hopefully the bad news continues and Ukraine can take the 600km squared south of the river in Kursk.

Avatar in the Post

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122536199#Comment_122536199

you jumping in is helping? He admitted later that he meant the war crime of Chemic weapons. He denied considering when a few weary people wondered if he meant nukes. Hardly shocking.

Now, you going to keep this up?

CelticRambler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122536527#Comment_122536527

I heard recently that the construction of that overland rail link wasn't anywhere near as advanced as was thought. Apparently more detailed satellite imagery showed nothing more than a bit of preparatory groundwork along most of its length, but very little usable rail.

Suckler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122536713#Comment_122536713

This makes no sense. Quell surprise.

Say my name

The russian neo nazi group "Rusich" put out a call on social media for a captured Ukrainian to perform a ritualistic sacrifice with. Bear in mind Putin's Kremlin has groups extinguished in Russia at the click of fingers, put in jail or killed. Rusich has been on the go for years in Russia. Have their own youth squads going around the cities on fighting sprees with other groups. The group commented after the task was closed.

http://twitter.com/sotanews/status/1826616501970817408

thomil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122536724#Comment_122536724

So you’re saying that this rail project has been… de-railed? 🙃

Please humour me, I’ve had a bad day…

junkyarddog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122536896#Comment_122536896

I like your train of thought!

TheValeyard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122536990#Comment_122536990

Hopefully people wont get there signals crossed on this platform. Think he's just letting off some Steam.

Mike3549

Saw some reports that their rail is in bits. Cant get western parts, esp bearings. More and more videos coming up with derailed cars. Some info below:

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1820669908512022620?t=PFWyg1uKho4EIHfw58JzQQ&s=19

Hope its not another "putin has 3 months to live" story

anonymouscactus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122536999#Comment_122536999

That's loco. Motion to adjourn…

Fastpud

Can we get back on track!

Brussels Sprout

Unfortunately I don't believe anything that Igor Sushko tweets out. He has form for spreading unsubstantiated stories.

Brussels Sprout

Speaking of liars, I see RFK Jr has ended his no-hoper Presidential campaign and is endorsing Trump. During his speech to declare all this he repeated some nonsense conspiracy theory that Biden and Boris Johnson forced Zelensky to rip up a peace agreement with the Russians.

https://twitter.com/CilComLFC/status/1827062042139791557

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122537071#Comment_122537071

They put up a pretense but in the end all these conspiracy theorists, grifters and charlatans sing from the same hymn sheet.

Mike3549

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122537053#Comment_122537053

Actually im the same. Sometimes hes full of poop. But more people are posting about problems with bearings, derailments etc maybe this time hes not wrong

Jinglejangle69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122537071#Comment_122537071

Amazing the amount of gullible idiots who believe him going by the tweets.

What a world we live in. Talk about fake news.

Roald Dahl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122537086#Comment_122537086

Yet another one of these bozos stealing a living.

Say my name

Artificial intelligence showing how russia was able to make their own copy of a Ukrainian blogger for Chinese audiences.

http://sibreal.org/a/33082211.html

Only reason I suspect this was shown on a Russian news site is part of the narrative to believe nothing. So even the real news is not believed anymore.

Mothers of Kursk conscripts that are missing cannot go public with their pleas as they get scam calls probably from Kremlin operatives looking for money and calls from government for discrediting the army. The kremlin say that 13 soldiers were killed in Kursk.

http://sibreal.org/a/desyatki-rebyat-propali-kak-materi-srochnikov-ischut-ih-v-kurskoy-oblasti-/33086574.html

TheValeyard

Either another OP to freak the Russians out (working out brilliantly) or something more

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1827096346802704859

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122537037#Comment_122537037

It does sound like another of those stories or "Russia will run out of ammo in 6-8 weeks", a hot rumour since May 2022.

Still, one of these rumours by the law of averages is sure to be true, why not this one? Would be good if so.

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122537037#Comment_122537037

Would be fantastic if true, but I suspect rather than the rail system being on the brink of collapse, it’s more likely on the brink of serious curtailment.
The Soviets left the Russians a very dense network of rail lines, and if they can’t maintain them anymore, I kind of expect them to pull a “Beeching Report” and pull a load of low traffic lines to cannibalise the parts and equipment on them. I imagine them doing their damnedest to keep a couple of critical trunklines going while sacrificing the rest.

The problem with that however is that if the Russians are reduced to a handful of operating lines, Ukraine will have a much easier time crippling their logistics. One or two junctions destroyed, and a whole arm of the Russian network might get cut off in this situation.

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122537740#Comment_122537740

A Taurus here and there would rightly screw them up.

Fun time in Voronezh

https://twitter.com/Nastushichek/status/1827263544439558546

scottser

Happy Independence Day

US sanctions hundreds of firms accused of supplying Russia's war machine | AP News

TheValeyard

Oooooh. I wanna see it

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1827273114171973694

CelticRambler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122537740#Comment_122537740

The slow degradation does indeed seem to be the more accurate scenario.

From last year:

https://archive.ph/eOzCk

the number of delayed or suspended trains due to a lack of train personnel amounted to around 3,700 in 2023. Market players identified this problem as ‘extremely significant’, even if the number pales in comparison to the number of trains affected by maintenance issues. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, approximately half a million men were taken out of the economy for military duty, a number that could increase soon.

[…]

Most of the problems faced by RZD are concentrated in the Far East region of the country. Over 2 million tonnes of goods were not transported in that area due to a lack of spare parts and a shortage of highly qualified staff in servicing companies in 2023. […]

The locomotive deficit is aggravated by the reorientation of Russia’s exports to the East following Western sanctions. Exporting eastward requires goods to travel much larger distances, requiring more rolling stock to maintain freight volumes. 

That was then, this is now:

https://archive.ph/JtNDk

Russian Railways (RZD) says it can no longer accept freight trains coming in from Belarus in the direction of the Smolensk and Kursk regions.RZD notified its Belarusian counterparts about the infrastructure overload, according to BelZhD. Russian Railways put the measure in place on 12 August with no end date mentioned, which likely means Moscow itself does not [know] when it can resolve the issues.

[…]

BelZhD says that Russia used a significant part of the Moscow Railway locomotive fleet to move its military to Kursk, as soldiers are even taken from the country’s most remote regions. However, there are now many abandoned trains waiting to be taken elsewhere. A shortage of locomotives and drivers hampers RZD’s ability to do so.

In other words, you can't have your cake and eat it! Rounding up trained engineers and locomotive drivers and shipping them off for sacrifice in Donetsk and Luhansk means there's no-one available to keep your trains running efficiently. Extend that to airlines and other national infrastructure and it's that inefficiency that will eventually cripple the economy; sanctions (and fear of sanctions) are preventing market forces from resolving the problem in traditional ways (c.f. Mongolia's decision to say "no" to the new oil pipeline to China).

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122534625#Comment_122534625

Maybe not, but the fact remains that any talk of not taking a particular course of action, in the vain hope that it will not trigger a particular form of retaliation by Putin is wishful thinking. Putin's declared plan is the complete destruction of Ukraine, it's people and culture. To destroy everything, and the very fact that it ever existed. But the tide has started to turn in this war. For the first time, Ukraine is forcing Putin into corners where he has to make decisions, where the outcome will not be good for him. Even his propaganda machine is now in deep trouble….hard to spin Putins mantra that only he can defend Russia and Russians, when Ukraine has taken a nice chunk of Russia itself and attacked Moscow. Putin is now on an increasingly sticky wicket, and if Muscovites and other Russian Cities thought that last winter was a bad one…wait until they see what next winter will bring!

Markcheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122536527#Comment_122536527

Yup , and that line has some large viaducts along it's route , viaducts within atacms range.. so ... If it's still operational, its because Ukraine wants it still operational

thatsdaft

Apparently the weapons depo that exploded was attacked by newly unveiled cheap rocket drone

https://twitter.com/JeffFisch/status/1827298749451784601

most of the Soviet and the Russian turbine tech came from Ukrainian engineers

“Russia big” works against Putin as he now has to chose between defending Moscow, Donbass or leaving the rest of the country vulnerable, they must be regretting using all that s300 ammo in ground attack mode

Markcheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122538557#Comment_122538557

I'm imagining that , with an airburst cluster munition full of little land mines , flying up the runway ,at the start of the next drone attack , or scattering a thick line of those horrible incendiary munitions over a long line of su-34s before they have time to flee.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122536216#Comment_122536216

Maybe that's an option, but it's still massively restrictive when you consider that even when the Kerch bridge was undamaged, and capable of full use, it was barely meeting demand. They had to reroute lots of stuff. So not only will half loads not do the trick, but they will also no doubt attract renewed attention from Ukrainians. Restrictions of all shapes and sizes are definitely taking their toll on Russian capabilities.

junkyarddog

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1827258640195035622

Talking out of both sides of his mouth!

Markcheese

Since Russia's rail system is already creaking, the destruction of the oil terminal at Rostov should have a significant impact,-the fuel tanks will have to travel further on an already congested system , to bring fuel to Donbas and crimes,

The Kerch straight ro-ro rail ferries being "removed"won't help , either the fuel will have to be transferred - or the trucks run at half capacity, either way valuable trucks held up ,

And one of the other main alternatives to Rostov , would have been the the line through kursk , well one end of that isn't transporting anything for a while 😉

None of it fatal to russian rail - yet - but it's ratcheting up the pressure and stress