Donald Trump the Megathread part II - mod warnings in OP

eightieschewbaccy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122596417#Comment_122596417

Any interesting excerpts will make it into news sites. But I suspect it will amount to paragraphs that people will laugh at it.

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122596583#Comment_122596583

I think Oprah or the likes of her tend to cover a large swaith of the potential audience. This may include a mix of Dem and GOP voters, but also a lot of independent moderate voters who end up swinging elections in most cases.

I do think the book will sell, but I sense that it will primarily sell to MAGA voters. Probably commited female MAGA-voters who are so intrenched that they don't mind creeping Handmaids Tale that comes with the MAGA mindet. So I see it selling, but I see it selling to people who either love Trump, or hate him enough to want to scan that book for kernals of Melania's hatred for him.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122596630#Comment_122596630

The "Trad Wives" will lap it up , but actual undecided women voters aren't buying that and any media coverage outside of the MAGA bubble will be "Melania wrote a book about her Marriage and never mentioned all her Husbands infidelities".

Again , a story line that might resonate with the "Stand by your man" fundie wives but won't land at all outside of that echo-chamber.

In short - No ones mind is going to be changed by this ghost written dross.

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122596630#Comment_122596630

Again all interesting points and perspectives -we’ll certainly know soon enough either way- outside of America I think women mainly will buy it because they want gossip tittle tattle and to get a glimpse of who Melania really is - you could pretty much glean everything you wanted to know about Harry’s “Spare” from the newspapers - that didn’t stop millions buying it - I don’t think it will be in the same league sales wise, but I think it will make an appearance at the top best sellers list at least for a brief moment

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122596648#Comment_122596648

“In short - No ones mind is going to be changed by this ghost written dross.”

That’s a big assumption and it points to you knowing what will influence fence sitters and swing voters - an audience that’s tipped to influence the election outcome right now.

The very intangibility of this voter segment- how they could swing on the smallest of things - leads me to not discount this book so readily

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122596659#Comment_122596659

"Spare" is a good example of what I'm trying to suggest. I sense that Harry's book didn't sway many people either way regarding their opinion of his marrage of Megan or their choice to disengage with the Royal Family. That one is a pretty polorised argument too, and the book merely fed off of that. However I doubt it swayed anyone enough to change their opinion, much like I very much doubt Melania's book will either.

The book will sell…but that's all I think it will happen.

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122596733#Comment_122596733

we’ll see in due course I guess - but since the 2016 election campaign, where I was laughed at for even suggesting Trump could win, I don’t underestimate what impact this book could have- releasing it 1 month before the election has to be part of a strategy - we’ll certainly know in time if it was a damp squib or a master stoke in PR

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122596685#Comment_122596685

It's about visibility and access.

It's really not going to get much in the way of air-time outside the already pro-MAGA channels.

Like I said , Melania isn't going to go on Good Morning America or whatever to talk about the book.

So if you aren't already consuming MAGA friendly news feeds , where are you going to see/hear about this book such that you go and spend $20+ on buying a copy??

So , the chances that enough truly "undecided" voters will hear about this book and be interested enough to read it, let alone have their minds changed by it are fairly slim in my view.

Flaneur OBrien

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122596791#Comment_122596791

Well, we all know how 2016 turned out. It wasn't logical, and made no sense, so yes, laughing at people who thought that he could win was entirely rational and natural.

Thankfully, we are all now more alert to the danger.

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122596516#Comment_122596516

I don't think the typical US voter who might still be undecided is a beach reader. It'll be those who ignore politics and news, that type spends their time doing other things. Also, beach season is over in the US , school is back.

Plus I expect the reviewers will savage it, though the Trump's have learned to fake book sales by buying them with campaign funds.

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122596827#Comment_122596827

”so yes, laughing at people who thought that he could win was entirely rational and natural.”

But it wasn’t - what it actually showed was a complete lack of understanding about the minds of a significant cohort of American voters and what they believed were the pertinent key issues for that election.

All I asked myself in 2016 is “why?”- why is Trump doing what he’s doing? I came to the conclusion that he was either very mad or very clever. I decided for that election he was very clever- and that was the correct assumption. I was entirely “rational and natural” in 2016- that didn’t stop me from having an enquiring mind.

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122596876#Comment_122596876

the “beach” comment was more a joke and an aside to the main points made.

Oh I’ve no doubt reviewers will slate it in the main - didn’t stop Harry’s whingefest from becoming a best seller though

Boggles

"As a private person who has often been the subject of public scrutiny and misrepresentation, I feel a responsibility to clarify the facts. I believe it is important to share my perspective, the truth."

I don't actually think she said anything that anyone would misrepresent.

But anyway, I look forward to reading the truth.

I assume there will be chapter on how she felt when she heard the news her husband was raw dogging a porn star whilst she was nursing their infant child?

Flaneur OBrien

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122596881#Comment_122596881

We'll agree to disagree so. I still think Trump won because of who the democrats put up against him. I think Bernie and the energy behind him would have beaten Trump. But, as they say, if my auntie had balls, she'd be my uncle.

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122596890#Comment_122596890

Harry and Meghan are far more entertaining. Melanoma is pathetic

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122596965#Comment_122596965

”Agreeing to disagree” is a perfectly acceptable way to engage. I’m all for that.

I wouldn’t disagree with you on the 2016 candidate - I felt she was too devicive had too much baggage and didn’t perform very well.
I think Harris is much better - but we’re still in very “too close to call” territory- I don’t understand why we’re here, but we are.

I’m “hoping” for a landslide for Harris- there are “green shoots” in terms of republicans recommending her or at the very least, one former Republican president not recommending either candidate which is as good as it gets sometimes - but it’s those bloody polls that indicate otherwise right now - I know polls overestimated Trumps predicted victories in the primaries - but it doesn’t make too much sense right now given everything is so close - how can a landslide happen for one side or another if the pre election polls call a close race?

aloyisious

I take it the Electoral College is going to be a massive influence in vote numbers again, therefore the number of senate and house seats taken by either party in the swing states is again going to be of prime importance.

It appears to be one of the pollsters [Nate Silvers] in the US with an opinion that Trump will win more of the college vote than Harris guaranteeing him a win in the election. How are things going now for both in individual state polls?

In that regard, which of the candidates is running with the better hand to convince the voters she or he is the better person to back?

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122596890#Comment_122596890

Being a "Best Seller" and convincing undecided voters to vote for Trump are categorically not the same thing.

The book will probably sell well enough though a combination of large scale "insider" purchases by the Trump campaign and adjacent PACs as well as a certain volume of those that will buy it out of morbid fascination/curiosity.

But the idea that those that read it will come away more predisposed to vote for Trump than before just doesn't hold water.

Stanley 1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122592517#Comment_122592517

Far too risky, his rear end might have a blow out and the diaper would be a gonner, could get very messy.

Flaneur OBrien

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597025#Comment_122597025

Just an FYI, it was discovered that Nate Silvers is funded by Peter Thiel, who is a major donor to Trumps campaign, and allegedly put JD Vance forward as VP. I don't think Nate Silvers can be cited as a good, impartial source anymore.

ronjo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597037#Comment_122597037

This is exactly what I was coming to see.

What kind of things @Oscar_Madison do you think she could write that will enourage people on the fence?

Portraying Trump as a guy who has sleepless nights worrying about the future of the country?

I just dont see it personally

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597023#Comment_122597023

I wouldn’t disagree with you on the 2016 candidate - I felt she was too devicive had too much baggage and didn’t perform very well.

Clinton performed fine for someone who was essentially not a popular candidate, neither was Trump. 2 most unpopular candidates in presidential history at the time. The polling indicated that she won the 3 debates, with her margin of victory growing from the first to the last.

If the election had taken place 2 weeks before it did it is widely accepted by people in both parties she would have won the race.

The reality is Comey's nothing letter to congress started a chain of events that handed Trump the presidency in those 12 days.

aloyisious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597051#Comment_122597051

Hmm, considers if there is an influencer behind what Silvers forecast of Harris polling ahead of Trump and his latest poll result.

By any chance is Thiel known to be friendly with people benched on the Potomac? Looks at reports from 2016 that Trump had been considering appointing him to SCOTUS back then if elected.

Stanley 1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122596086#Comment_122596086

Trump ain't capable of writing this post……….he can't concentrate that long.

Stanley 1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122593906#Comment_122593906

Trump has been in Court with Carroll several times but the bill keeps rising now up to $88m, jury believes her story.

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597085#Comment_122597085

To answer that we’d have to know what keeps those voters on the fence in the first place -

- but assuming fence sitters eventually step down and vote for one candidate or the other , it would seem to me that it’s something far more intangible than mere stated policy or whatever Trump says -it goes back to “feelings” which is a well documented element in these indecisive voters- who knows Melanias book could well reach aspects of these voters minds that Trump himself couldn’t reach - saying the same messages but in a different “softer” way - reporting on this book alone could get some of those key points out there- the voters won’t be listening to the analysis of the book because hey, there’s plenty of analysis out there so far and it hasn’t persuaded them either way- but Melanias words just might

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597101#Comment_122597101

That doesn’t disprove my analysis of her as a candidate - anyway we’re off topic

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597105#Comment_122597105

Bear in mind , Nate Silver no longer has anything to do with the 538 website. He's moved on.

He now has a new site, silverbullet.com and uses the Thiel backed/owned Polymarket probability platform for his predictions.

A lot of people still connect him with 538 , but he's long gone from there.

538 Shows Harris with a narrow lead , Silvers new site shows Trump with a higher probability of winning than Harris at present.

ronjo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597149#Comment_122597149

any examples of what softer things she might say? In your opinion of course

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597149#Comment_122597149

You are putting a tremendious amount of truck (or maybe hope) into the effectivness of Melania's "message" in this book. She's married to Trump technically, but there's nothing really "softer" about her or how she communicates. If anything she's nearly as bad as him, along with holding a skewed prespective of a woman who has gotten by over the years primarily on her looks and who hasn't been dumped yet by Donnie for the sake of Presidential optics.

The true hell of her existence with Trump is something this book will not cover, and simply creating a "softer" fiction of Trump being anything but the very public & self-centered trainwreck that we all know he is, will not work. The key points that will likely be reported will be the blatent lies that will be found in the pages of that book and likely also questions of who had actually ghost-written it for her.

I don't think this book will be the "October Surprise" you think it will be. There may be a surprise of some description in the next weeks, but I don't think it's this.