FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Gonzo

After a very wet 2/3s of Spring, the season improved during May and overall Spring was yet another very much milder than average season. Summer is here now so how are things looking for the first half of June?

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mod Note:

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward for Summer 2024.

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The first day of Spring has high pressure ridging in from the west bringing a dry and settled weekend to come. Temperatures will be around average with most places sitting between 15 and 18C. A few places might pull off 19 or 20C.

This spell of high pressure does not look like it will stick around for long, this high pressure got downgraded fairly rapidly over the past few days in duration and temperature. By Monday the high pressure will already be on the move with winds in from the north-west bringing cooler conditions. A cold spell is likely from mid week onwards with a chilly north-west airflow. This could bring showers at times to western and northern areas with temperatures overall sliding away into the low teens.

Into next weekend we see another attempt at a ridge of high pressure building, but for now this looks very flimsy and maybe not last more than a day or so.

On this GFS 12z we see the Atlantic making a comeback with a more unsettled pattern setting up for the second week of June with rain and relatively cool temperatures.

The second week of June becomes progressively more unsettled as it goes on with low pressures centred over Ireland or close by.

We finish up with a cool Atlantic pattern well in control. Hopefully my next update will be looking better as this first half of June is currently not looking particularly great by any means.

Hooter23

The cold air that arrives on tuesday is not going south this time...it just hangs around over us for the rest of the week...so we are not going to get anything out of it this time just more of our usual cold wind and rain...the heat to the south is building up now in summer and it seems to block our weather from reaching them so we are stuck in the muck while the rest of europe enjoys summer...same every year im sure we will get our summer once every 20 years..this could still be the year🤣

Sammy2012

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122213619#Comment_122213619

What are the charts currently looking like for the middle of the month?

squarecircles

Overcast, cool and wet.

Widdensushi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122213819#Comment_122213819

Op isn't far away,two posts up,I will probably get the ban for replying to you," discussing, analysis only" doesn't mention " how's the weather for my barbecue"mods should remove it from the op or enforce,,I ain't pushed either way but followed it for the good analysis etc,if the rest that's being allowed is the norm,no bother, but update op.

Hairypoppins

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122213896#Comment_122213896

What??

Widdensushi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122214201#Comment_122214201

The op means your post and mine is in violation of the charter ,,,,ban us both or the change the charter,, prefer if they ban us both rather than the nonsense.

Hooter23

There are signs of the cold tracking further north away from us... allowing the Azores High to come closer to us as early as this weekend....we could get afew warm sunny days..but it could easliy turn into prolonged summer weather if the high has a chance to build in right over us...

Thekeencyclist

How is the remainder of this week looking? hoping for dry weather in the north longford region to commence some silage etc

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122221411#Comment_122221411

Rest of this week is looking chilly and dryish but will be some showers around so it won't be completely dry. 2 to 5mm of rainfall between now and Sunday across most of the country, wetter in Donegal and Sligo with more in the way or rain or showers there.

Gonzo

GFS 12z maintains the chilly outlook and extends out to lower than average temperatures until June 20th. If this verifies this could be the longest colder than average period we have had in a long time, possibly since March 2018 but I could be wrong about that. A real possibility that this June could be a colder than average month overall. Any sign of warm weather (20C or more) is pushed out to the far depths of FI into the final 10 days of the month.

Cool northerlies or north-westerlies look in control of our weather until the beginning of the 3th week of June. At the far end of today's GFS there are hints that high pressure may begin to make a move towards us on the 21st of June introducing much milder air from the south-west and cutting off those chilly winds from the far North Atlantic.

The month looks like as if it will slowly turn more unsettled but that remains to be seen for now. Unfortunately right now I cannot seem to embed any weather charts into this post like I normally can as the feature seems to be not working at the moment.

pauldry

Looking at some charts they suggest that this pattern is stuck over us with brief ridging in between. Could be that parts of Ireland won't see 20c this June and a max of 22c or 23c in the warmest spots. All subject to change greatly though this pattern has shown on a lot of runs recently.

Thekeencyclist

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122224304#Comment_122224304

Thanks @Gonzo …….Saturday is looking like a nice dry day, i think i'll chance mowing 12-20 acres this evening for baling saturday. Looks like a few showers tomorrow afternoon which might not happen.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122224304#Comment_122224304

Its a shame this cold spell didn't arrive in January or February but in June its just eww haha but at least a fair amount of June's have started off cool 😎 so perhaps the final 10 days of June may pick up. Hopefully July and August will be good months as well 🙏 not heatwaves but mid to high 20s I wouldn't say no too

Elmer Blooker

I hate to say it but getting quite worried now, these lows that have nowhere to go tend to hang around.

Sammy2012

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122232208#Comment_122232208

Would this bring cold and dry weather or wet?

Hooter23

It will be warm if sunny and cold enough if cloudy now through until the start of next week...the Azores high might make more attempts to build closer to us after next week around mid June onwards...

joinme

This thread very quite. Any chart forecasting for the second half of June happening?

CruelSummer

I think there must be nothing good to see on the the charts but Met Eireann’s extended range forecast isn’t the worst. Also the seasonal models are out. I’m not very good at understanding what they mean for our area however!
https://www.met.ie/forecasts/monthly-forecast

Met Eireann have a paragraph on the seasonal model outlook and I’m hoping the drier spells transpires, we badly need it.

“The rainfall forecast is less certain, with June having a higher likelihood of wetter than average conditions while July and August have the higher potential for drier spells at times.”

wazzzledazzle

This statement is nonsense and could be basically thrown out for any month of the year. Of course we’ll get drier spells at times.

while July and August have the higher potential for drier spells at times.”

nacho libre

It looks like Northern Blocking might be on the way out, so the potential for some drier weather and warmer weather is there going into the final third of June. Let's see what happens.

Gonzo

The next week looks rather cool and unsettled with no real signs of improvement in the weather until the final week of June or thereabouts. Unfortunately I still cannot post any charts here as the feature appears to be still broken.

Low pressure continues to dominate our weather over the weekend with showers or rain at times and remaining cool. This unsettled theme remains into the early part of next week.

By next weekend there may be an improvement in the weather with warmer air trying to push up from the south but as always Ireland may not see this with Atlantic fronts siting very close to us.

A scandinavian high may get going towards the end of this month but will it influence our weather remains to be seen. Signs of heights rising over us all look a bit flimsy right now with the Atlantic largely in control of our weather but there should at least be a warm up in the weather final 10 days of June.

batistuta9

@Gonzo What charts are you trying to link? You tried opening the images in a new tab then pasting as a link

Hooter23

The high pressure will get closer in about 5 days time we might get afew more warm sunny days out of that again...but after that it might not last as long as it could have...there are possible storms around the end of june…the storms develop like something you would get in winter...it looks like its caused by the extreme heat in the east of america right now which will probably fire up the jet stream and collide with the cold air still in the atlantic...very strange weather...

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122255749#Comment_122255749

I have always used the insert media function to embed images into my posts and this always worked perfectly until about 2 weeks ago and now it's completely broken. I'll have to try another way.

wazzzledazzle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122257396#Comment_122257396

Just copy the URL in to post, no need to use the insert media function(i think ; ) )

piplip87

So yous are saying there might be a chance of decent weather next weekend ? Three outdoor gigs in Dublin next weekend so fingers crossed

Hooter23

Weather will start to get better on tuesday we will get around 3 days out of it...storms starting up around friday next week and might continue through to the end of the month...it will pull up alot of warm air far north and is going to change our usual weather into july...so anything that is not our usual weather can only mean more chance of warm sunny weather...and probably more chance of heatwaves into july ?

squarecircles

Ah the old summer wind storms, shure it wouldnt be midsummer in ireland without a good old storm to batter everything…excuse me now,i have to go fill my hot water bottle and set the heat for the morning..

Not made with hands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122261321#Comment_122261321

The evenings will be closing in shortly.

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122261722#Comment_122261722

Ah it's not until the very end of this month where we lose the first minute in the evening and by this day next month we will have lost only a little over ten minutes in the evenings which would be hardly noticeable by the vast majority of people. It'll be a few months before the bulk of the population notice the shortening of the evenings.

Gonzo

Final week of August is when you first start to really notice the daylight hours shortening.

Carol25

Looking at the charts, next weekend looks like it's open season? Could be a low pressure or mixed weather? I'm outdoors all next weekend so watching with interest…

Meteorite58

Looks like temperatures starting to pick up slowly and gradually, rainfall fairly low away from the W and NW.

LP nearby out in the Atlantic , will see if a trend builds that the HP will block them, keeping them well off the West.

Hooter23

If the storms stay to the north west of us then the heatwaves will start early around the last week of june then might carry on into july...

wazzzledazzle

Charts show something to be optimistic about! We could well be looking at the end of this cool spell in the not so distant future

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122265166#Comment_122265166

yes the cold spell will finally die it's death this week, a cold spell that has lasted almost 3 weeks in total. Final 10 days of June should definitely be warmer than the first 20 days but will it be enough to unravel the colder than average temperature anomaly for this month. Not too sure if the final 10 days of the month will be settled tho, could easily be warm and volatile with thundery showers and temperatures into the low 20s.

esposito

Better to be warm and thundery than cold/cool and blustery showers. Bring it on!

pad199207

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122265705#Comment_122265705

Absolutely

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122261944#Comment_122261944

Exacatly. I find this commentary about the nights 'closing in' unbearably negative. In some places like America summer doesn't even officially start until the solstice.

As you've alluded to, the evenings actually keep getting longer for a few days AFTER the solstice. And even up until mid August sunset is still past 9pm. And no doubt some of our best weather is still to come in early September.

Gonzo

A fairly major pattern change could begin to take place later this week to something much warmer. It wouldn't be hard considering temperatures have been well below average for over 2 weeks at this point. What is uncertain is will it change to warm/hot and settled or will it change it warm and volatile with heavy showers or thunderstorms etc, time will tell.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122265409#Comment_122265409

It's a shame we couldn't have had this cold spell 6 months ago but hey ho, roll on the nicer more plesent weather

Meteorite58

That is some set of charts from the ECM, runs over the last few days being leaning more towards warmer and drier weather, after Fridays expected rain very little of note after that showing up for now. That would be some temperature change from all the cooler fresher weather of late, night temps getting no lower than 16 to 18C some nights in places. A scorcher by Irish terms.

GFS equally a lot less rainfall, temps into the low 20's

Meteorite58

Complete different look to the charts since just a couple of days ago. Into the mid 20's Sun and Mon and maybe touching that Tues in the E but low pressures from the Atlantic seem to have won the battle bringing in bands of rain and showers at times from Tuesday and thereafter the models showing a drop off in temperatures…gone from the mid to high 20's down to maybe the high teens at best and from relatively dry to now expecting a fair shot of rain at times. Of interest to some perhaps will be the watch for thunderstorms next week to see if they materialize.

Mars Bar

That's so sad as someone who is coming home from the middle east on Tuesday 😥

Gonzo

GFS 12z keeps it unsettled for the second half of next week but an improving scene after that hopefully.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122284262#Comment_122284262

Hmm, after the debacle of the last 2 days where a heatwave looked certain, anything beyond 7days.... is kaput territory

Artane2002

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122284818#Comment_122284818

Next week was never looking that good (with confidence) if one paid attention to the details. Most runs had a draw off the Atlantic, which would have resulted in warm, humid, cloudy weather. The more favourable runs were outliers, so always unlikely, and there was maybe only one heatwave run. Anything past mid next week was well into FI and not to be taken seriously.

pauldry

Some warm days in the next 7 to 10 days. We got to 17.2c yesterday as the South wind blew up milder air. 14c so far today. Sunday to Tuesday maybe over 20c here so 25c in the sunnier East.

Azores High is trying to come to us but cold pool from Greenland keeps pushing it back down. Hence will likely be warm and dry and wet and cooler much of the next 2 weeks.

Perhaps later into July the High will have a bit more success. Please God.

Sick of this Arctic June.

IMT in Sligo 2024 11.1c

IMT in Sligo 2023 15.8c

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122284818#Comment_122284818

The hot week next week was never nailed on. It was mainly the ECM and GEM that toyed with it for a bit but the GFS never really went for it as most charts showed the Atlantic breaking through next week after a few days of fine and warm weather. Of course this did not stop the rag press from hand picking the hotest outliers and making up heatwave articles.

Not made with hands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122286881#Comment_122286881

To be fair the met.ie app was showing 25 degrees for Limerick area next Wednesday, that was only one station, so possibly higher elsewhere.