FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Gonzo

Final week of August is when you first start to really notice the daylight hours shortening.

Carol25

Looking at the charts, next weekend looks like it's open season? Could be a low pressure or mixed weather? I'm outdoors all next weekend so watching with interest…

Meteorite58

Looks like temperatures starting to pick up slowly and gradually, rainfall fairly low away from the W and NW.

LP nearby out in the Atlantic , will see if a trend builds that the HP will block them, keeping them well off the West.

Hooter23

If the storms stay to the north west of us then the heatwaves will start early around the last week of june then might carry on into july...

wazzzledazzle

Charts show something to be optimistic about! We could well be looking at the end of this cool spell in the not so distant future

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122265166#Comment_122265166

yes the cold spell will finally die it's death this week, a cold spell that has lasted almost 3 weeks in total. Final 10 days of June should definitely be warmer than the first 20 days but will it be enough to unravel the colder than average temperature anomaly for this month. Not too sure if the final 10 days of the month will be settled tho, could easily be warm and volatile with thundery showers and temperatures into the low 20s.

esposito

Better to be warm and thundery than cold/cool and blustery showers. Bring it on!

pad199207

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122265705#Comment_122265705

Absolutely

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122261944#Comment_122261944

Exacatly. I find this commentary about the nights 'closing in' unbearably negative. In some places like America summer doesn't even officially start until the solstice.

As you've alluded to, the evenings actually keep getting longer for a few days AFTER the solstice. And even up until mid August sunset is still past 9pm. And no doubt some of our best weather is still to come in early September.

Gonzo

A fairly major pattern change could begin to take place later this week to something much warmer. It wouldn't be hard considering temperatures have been well below average for over 2 weeks at this point. What is uncertain is will it change to warm/hot and settled or will it change it warm and volatile with heavy showers or thunderstorms etc, time will tell.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122265409#Comment_122265409

It's a shame we couldn't have had this cold spell 6 months ago but hey ho, roll on the nicer more plesent weather

Meteorite58

That is some set of charts from the ECM, runs over the last few days being leaning more towards warmer and drier weather, after Fridays expected rain very little of note after that showing up for now. That would be some temperature change from all the cooler fresher weather of late, night temps getting no lower than 16 to 18C some nights in places. A scorcher by Irish terms.

GFS equally a lot less rainfall, temps into the low 20's

Meteorite58

Complete different look to the charts since just a couple of days ago. Into the mid 20's Sun and Mon and maybe touching that Tues in the E but low pressures from the Atlantic seem to have won the battle bringing in bands of rain and showers at times from Tuesday and thereafter the models showing a drop off in temperatures…gone from the mid to high 20's down to maybe the high teens at best and from relatively dry to now expecting a fair shot of rain at times. Of interest to some perhaps will be the watch for thunderstorms next week to see if they materialize.

Mars Bar

That's so sad as someone who is coming home from the middle east on Tuesday 😥

Gonzo

GFS 12z keeps it unsettled for the second half of next week but an improving scene after that hopefully.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122284262#Comment_122284262

Hmm, after the debacle of the last 2 days where a heatwave looked certain, anything beyond 7days.... is kaput territory

Artane2002

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122284818#Comment_122284818

Next week was never looking that good (with confidence) if one paid attention to the details. Most runs had a draw off the Atlantic, which would have resulted in warm, humid, cloudy weather. The more favourable runs were outliers, so always unlikely, and there was maybe only one heatwave run. Anything past mid next week was well into FI and not to be taken seriously.

pauldry

Some warm days in the next 7 to 10 days. We got to 17.2c yesterday as the South wind blew up milder air. 14c so far today. Sunday to Tuesday maybe over 20c here so 25c in the sunnier East.

Azores High is trying to come to us but cold pool from Greenland keeps pushing it back down. Hence will likely be warm and dry and wet and cooler much of the next 2 weeks.

Perhaps later into July the High will have a bit more success. Please God.

Sick of this Arctic June.

IMT in Sligo 2024 11.1c

IMT in Sligo 2023 15.8c

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122284818#Comment_122284818

The hot week next week was never nailed on. It was mainly the ECM and GEM that toyed with it for a bit but the GFS never really went for it as most charts showed the Atlantic breaking through next week after a few days of fine and warm weather. Of course this did not stop the rag press from hand picking the hotest outliers and making up heatwave articles.

Not made with hands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122286881#Comment_122286881

To be fair the met.ie app was showing 25 degrees for Limerick area next Wednesday, that was only one station, so possibly higher elsewhere.

Meteorite58

A big climb down in the rainfall totals for the next 10 days from both ECM and GFS and not as cool as recent charts were showing, quite a lot of moderating temperatures around being drawn in by the LP to the high teens / low 20's so not as bad as was showing only a couple of runs ago.

The LP set to move in and stay around as the week goes on looks a lot flabbier and just producing weaker fronts now. So a deal of uncertainty yet but possibly leaning towards less rainfall and warmer then what was showing in the last few runs. Will see if the moderating trend continues.

pauldry

Ya a lot more 20c days in todays forecast. Perfect if you ask me but still a few drizzly days however not nearly as bad as yesterday. Let's see what pans out but hopefully the 12 to 14c days can be scratched for a while. 17c to 20c is more bearable even if its cloudy.

Gonzo

the charts for the coming week have certainly improved from what we were looking at over the past few days. However the GFS still going for a relatively cool and unsettled first week of July but that is along way off so therefore is unreliable. Let's hope it doesn't verify but a cool and unsettled period probably will happen at some stage during July, just hopefully nowhere near as prolonged as the recent cold spell.

and the embedding of images into posts seems to be fixed now thankfully. Alot of scatter in the models from June 27th so everything past day 5 can be taken with a large pinch of salt.

pauldry

Monday to Wednesday good in the East this week. Drizzle and mist mixed with the sun in the West. Mainly during morning. Later in the week a bit more unsettled. A strong low wants to take hold on the GFS but sometimes these get held back. If it doesn't the floodgates open for a lot of days unsettled with slider lows.

ascophyllum

The charts between now and the 10th July are not great looking, apart from brief interludes, a westerly flow and plenty of low-pressure, no real settled weather forseeable

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122296659#Comment_122296659

yeah all looking very mediocre on the models, apart from today no real sign of any warm or settled weather. Models mostly showing the jetstream on a north-west to south-east alignment which isn't what we want in summer or any time of the year really.

pauldry

Ya that pattern can last weeks. If it sets up after Wednesday it could last 2 weeks but hopefully the Azores high gets a few nudges in so it's not continuous rainy days.

Gonzo

Todays GFS 12z is fairly grim if your looking for warm and settled weather. Real shades of June 2024 or July 2023 with todays model output, cool with temperatures cooler than average almost from start to finish and an increase in precipitation. The GFS has the north-west to south-east alignment of the jetstream persisting for the first half of July. Of course much of this is in the unreliable timeframe but if this verifies this could be the coolest overall summer in quiet a while as June is likely to finish up cooler than average. I don't think 2 warm days is enough to unravel the chilly first 2 and a half weeks of this month.

JanuarySnowstor

Certainly trending the wrong way for Summer 24!! Time of course for a heatwave in mid July, nobody really knows! For now it's a wait and see...

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122303604#Comment_122303604

June is actually likely to finish up quite close to average temp wise in much of the East. Including Dunsany which is close to where you are Gonzo. However places further West will end up around 1º below average.

Phoenix Park may even end up a tad ABOVE its long-term average. This of course will send the usual suspects into a tail spin.

How we perceive the weather and temperature is very subjective of course. But a big factor at play is the very mild May. May's max daily temps were actually closer to June's. In the East at least.

As Sryan pointed out Casement averaged a daily high of: 17.2C (+1.8C above average). Phoenix Park averaged a daily high of: 17.7C (*+1.9C above average, *estimate).

These types of temps continued into much of June. But as we were already used to them from May it probably made the month feel a bit cooler than it actually was.

And anyway, Ireland is so cool to begin with that any summer month with remotely average temps is going to feel 'crap' to many people. But as I keep saying we expect way too much from our summers to begin with. And our winters for that matter.