FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

joinme

These are dire outlooks for those who want some sun and warmth. MTC also not so optimistic in today's forecast. Is there any chance this could swing back to a warm front or are we basically goosed until mid-July?

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122307976#Comment_122307976

There is a chance but right now the modeling for first half of July is another July trainwreck and we need huge changes fast to flip this around. The north-westerlies dominated much of June and it looks like the same for July, just a wetter pattern compared to June combined with chilly temperatures.

Not made with hands

Convincing the general public to change their ways due to climate change is going to be one tough sell in this country.

Robwindstorm

Well feck it anyway. Doesn't look like silage been made next week and the week after looks like even heavier rainfall, so that's my outdoor wedding on July 8th in major jeopardy

dsmythy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122309929#Comment_122309929

Relying on more flooding over high temperatures for that it would seem. Having said that all these higher than average temperature months should mean a higher ceiling for record breaking days.

pauldry

I'd nearly say the weather for the rest of Summer will be

Rain for all of July except 3rd week for a couple of days

Rain for all of August but chillier and drier near the end

But based on what?? Nothing except 2011 was like that here and this year seems a copycat to that in Sligo though we had a colder may and slightly warmer june that year.

This year in Sligo is the coldest June since before 2006 because that's when I started recording things. 2007 to 2012 were bad Summers but not 11 to 13c every day of June.

In case I'm fired out of this for going off topic the +120hrs forecast has a slither of continuous lows coming down from the North Atlantic with lots of rain most days. Yay. No drought this year at least.

Europe not much better so far, chilly in France, heavy rain in Germany, quite mixed in a lot of Spain. Europe has a cold.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122311380#Comment_122311380

Indeed and notable that places like Malaga are still high 20s when you would expect mid 30s heading for July. Most of Europe looks cooler than normal tbh

Gonzo

Interesting the comments about western Europe, the cold first half to June and the upcoming prolonged July cold spell is going to affect western Europe again, it's not just Ireland and western fringes of the UK that's had a sub-standard first third to summer.

I'm also quite knowledgeable of the climate of the Costa Del Sol which is my second home and up to this point they have been colder than average for the most part over the past 6 weeks, although they did have a very hot heat spike not so long ago. Overall temperatures there on average have been between 23 and 27C but in reality they should be hitting 30C most days and several days per week over 30C at this time of the year.

I have a feeling that for Ireland and indeed much of western Europe we will see a more aggressive uptick in temperatures for August and first half of September which is when our real summer will be. A backloaded summer is extremely possible this year.

pauldry

Yes Gonzo. I would expect the same but sometimes it doesn't work out like that. However I would say we will at least get a few 20c spells after disaster July. But after disaster July cools everywhere it may be hard to get up to the mid high twenties due to shortening days and not much land heat to tap into. Also remember ocean temps will be cooler this year.

JCX BXC

On the flip side, cooler ocean temps can mean less cloud?

squarecircles

Divine sweet mary mother of god😱

Hooter23

Summer weather will return in the second week of July...it will be similiar to the weather we got in May /early june only this time there will be alot more heat around which could prolong the heatwaves even more possibly on and off into August...chance we might get abit of the extreme heat they get in other countries

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122312496#Comment_122312496

Fingers crossed gonzo our summer runs till mid September so here's hoping

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122317709#Comment_122317709

In terms of rainfall this summer hasn't been bad, the main reason this first half to summer is feeling very much not like summer is the unusual persistence of the cold northerly or north-westerlies which we just cannot seem to break out of properly. Imagine if we took the June and July 2024 pattern and had it in December and January instead, now that would be the makings of an absolutely brutal winter of possibly extreme cold.

This cold temperature anomaly surely cannot persist right to the end of August so a fair chance the second half of this summer (from mid July onwards) should be warmer than the first half.

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122312532#Comment_122312532

August is still summer. And sea temps are usually at their warmest in early September. There is nothing to suggest it will be too cool or the days too short for high temps to occur in Ireland after July.

The warmest month the country ever experienced was an August in 1995 and last year we'd temps well into the 20s in early September.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122317858#Comment_122317858

Exactly 💯 I have a good feeling and faith that the 2nd half of summer will be a good one, like I know it can take a while for to heat up but as I said August and most of September can be a warm one 😀 I know people are moaning that it's been rotten out lately and I agree but just have confidence and just hold on and we will get there

muzakfan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122317921#Comment_122317921

"Have confidence" in dumb random luck and good feelings. 😂

wazzzledazzle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122317967#Comment_122317967

..

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122317967#Comment_122317967

No comment

JanuarySnowstor

I wouldn't be assuming the latter half of Summer will produce. If anything the last 20 years has written off August!! Yes it could change for the better but recent year's have either delivered by mid July or not at all. Of course September is different and has given mid 20s on quite a few years

emo72

Thinking here, should I put the heating on? I'm in Dublin, me mates are sending photos of a balmy afternoon in sunny Leitrim. The difference a few miles make.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122318378#Comment_122318378

No not assuming but I haven't ruled it out I know August has been a mostly washout month but even 2 weeks of 25c will do me between now and September 15th

Banarol

Only 2 years ago we had a 32.1 C on August 13th. 11 stations broke their August maximum temperature record.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122319461#Comment_122319461

I know so there is still plenty of potential

sryanbruen

I wouldn't hedge my bets on it but bank it nonetheless. GFS 12z was very dry with high pressure ridging and ridging continuously into Ireland through to the end of its run starting later next week. If this were to occur, temperatures would also finally start to warm up on a nationwide scale though especially in the west closer to the high pressure as there would be a bit of a northeasterly wind influence to the north and east. Good to note that any NE'ly wind would not be as impactful compared to a few weeks prior. Mid-July is often a prime time for Irish heatwaves. This would be a technical one with consistent mid 20s day after day. Main thing would be how dry it would be. Hardly a millimetre for a good week and a half at the very least.

It was on the upper range of the ensemble suite but not an outlier. You can see how persistent the high pressure is on the run with the air pressure never falling below 1020 hPa in Dublin after the 11th July and even getting up to 1030 hPa on the 17th which is very high for July.

Other models as you'd expect not nearly as enthusiastic in showing this.

ECM shows a cut off low hindering any high pressure ridging into us rather than undercutting with some promise at the very end of its run at day 10 Monday 15th July. Hints of pressure rising but this is clearly a much more unsettled and changeable run before it gets to any high pressure signal.

UKMO shows high pressure starting to ridge from the northwest towards the latter part of next week but with relatively cool air entrenched - at first that is. The way it positions the cut off low near Biscay would make me think after a few days, warm air would start flowing up from the south and the anticyclone would intensify.

GEM shows a weak attempt of ridging later next week before the Atlantic influence makes a full quick and swift return.

It's some hope at least for summer lovers which we haven't had in weeks. Besides a little warmer period through mid-June which was transient, we've not had a definitive warm and dry period nationwide since June last year or arguably August 2022 in some cases. May was thundery at times with some locally very wet weather in parts of the south/west. Let's have some hope to cling onto.

sryanbruen

Good model runs all round this morning for prospects on high pressure to start influencing our weather through mid-July increasing the chances of nationwide warm and dry weather.

Ensembles still a bit mixed for now but a warming signal is there.

pauldry

It sure is. For weeks there has been on and off hopes of a major improvement from mid July but it gets knocked off again in some runs. But at worst it looks like 17c to 20c days with just a few showers. At best mid twenties. Let's see if it stays there. Will be better than 5c to 15c anyways as yesterday's temperature was.

sryanbruen

Unfortunately the ridge barely builds in on this morning's runs and allows a lot of flabby Atlantic lows to give unsettled weather. UKMO and GEM the best of the lot. UKMO has the ridge centred to the N/NW by Friday 12th which would give a lot of dry and pleasant weather, the airmass is relatively warm. GEM builds in a ridge that quickly gets shunted off to the north of Scandinavia losing its influence over Ireland by Monday 15th.

Still a slight warming signal on the GEFS but it's lost a bit of confidence with generally speaking around average temperatures for most of the perturbations. The operationals have swung the other way basically to the other extreme from the other day being on the lower end of the range of mean sea level pressure.

As I said, it was clinging onto hope rather than a forecast. When will we get a centrally located ridge of high pressure again that is more than a few days!

Meteorite58

Yes the Jet is just being too stubborn staying South of us not letting ridging build for long. Only transient rub of HP, runs have been nudging a bit on the cooler side too but should see temperatures in the mid to high teens in general, will probably see over 20C in a few places ,drier for the Western half of the country perhaps, a mixed bag , in general not too much rain showing up over the next 10 days, currently looking like slack airflows apart from the normal few breezy spells on the coasts.

Gonzo

This seems to be the trend all summer, prolonged cool spells from the north or north-west, models eventually start showing what we want for more than a few days and then a day later the models backtrack and we're left clinging onto hope of 1 warm day above 20C. IF anything the current cool spell is being prolonged yet again untill the 17th of July and barely average after that. All very dissapointing.

For me at least I'm going to Spain for 2 weeks end of August so at least i'll catch some summer weather then. Only 7 weeks of summer left to go for us and we're back into autumn and summer has never really gotten going this year at all. I suppose we can be thankful at least that this summer is so far nowhere nearly as wet as last summer but i'm really growing sick of day after day of temperatures barely making it to mid teens, the cloud, wind and random drizzely showers.