FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Billcarson

Wouldn't be surprised if the warmer settled spell is a brief affair. I think this Sept will be much more Autumnal then last yr.

beggars_bush

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122542126#Comment_122542126

Can we have a whip around to keep you out of the country?

Thunder87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122543468#Comment_122543468

Thinking the same from looking at the charts, it doesn't scream 'settled' to me at all, maybe some brief ridges that give some nice warm days but the overall pattern is still turbulent and messy. But then seeing high pressure building anywhere in the north Atlantic is an improvement on the past 12 months so fingers crossed

Cork2021

I can take a shite summer as long as we get some decent white gold over late autumn winter

pauldry

The warmth will last about 2 or 3 days with temperatures around 20 to 23c . Maybe another 2 days for the East but after this 17 or 18c and staying dry most of the time away from the W and NW where some drizzle will ruin it. Here only the weekend will be good.

KanyeSouthEast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122543805#Comment_122543805

you should emigrate if you are looking for that or take a holiday and never come back according to some on this thread!

KanyeSouthEast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122543634#Comment_122543634

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122543634#Comment_122543634

Someone should tell the scutter press that. Words like September Scorcher are being bandied about this morning!!

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122544551#Comment_122544551

There are definitely a few people on here who's lives would be a whole lot better by emigrating to another country for a better climate. Basicially throw a dart at any other point in Europe and your likely to have warmer and dryer summers yet colder winters (Portugal and Scotland obvious exceptions). Portugal and Ireland are the 2 least snowiest countries in Europe. Scotland and Ireland have the coolest summers.

Elmer Blooker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122543634#Comment_122543634

for the rain soaked north west these charts look VERY settled to me

squarecircles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122544222#Comment_122544222

According to MT cRANium it will be crap in the west this weekend.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK is relatively pleasant, a front will stall to the west (we hope) and rain from that could brush outer west coast at times with cloudy intervals spreading about one third of the way east towards midlands, but sunny breaks should be fairly frequent in south, east and even parts of north. Lows both days near 12 C and highs 20 to 23 C. 

then again met eireann have forecast max highs of between15/16 for me all week, but his temperature profiles say 18 to 21. those extra 3 degrees must be in some other alternate parrallel world.

squonk

Well living 3 miles from the west coast I’m banking on drizzle anyway. It’s been very difficult to ready shift that pattern all summer here. Even relatively settled periods had drizzle setting in over the afternoon at times. I’m kind of done with this now. I’d take the setup we’ve had all summer if it lasted into January & Feb. It’d mean some decent crusty mornings. Those have gotten fairly rare in these parts.

nacho libre

Dare to dream.

joinme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122544562#Comment_122544562

Ireland really got screwed in the weather stakes (depending on your climate preferences)

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122545705#Comment_122545705

Oh yes please 🙏 😍

Billcarson

Hmmmmmmm 🤔

Robwindstorm

The charts are a disaster for over a year now in particular. Both GFS and ECMWF completely different. Let's see which will be right if any

typhoony

Not sure where all the negative comments are coming from, the settled weather hasn't even started and people are calling it a 2 to 3 day event. The charts thankfully are mire optimistic. If we get clear skies then we could get some cooler nights but daytime temperatures look well above normall

Thunder87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122544814#Comment_122544814

High pressure with a westerly flow (which is what's currently forecast) often leads to low cloud, drizzle and sea mist in the north west unfortunately

squonk

Agreed. Looking at yr though it’s showing an easterly component to the winds Sat/Sun which is good however it all backs off southerly/westerly after that. A month ago, first week of the Olympics in fact, a decent spell was promised but all we got here in the west was some dry mornings duty intermittent drizzle in the afternoon/evening for the most part. I certainly wouldn’t have described it as fine and settled. Hence who I’m not expecting much this time either.

pauldry

Settled weather doesn't exist in the West anymore. June 2023 was the last one.

fits

was just thinking here that this is first summer in a while in our house that we didn’t need to take the fans out for a spell of hot nights.

squarecircles

GFS12Z is warm humid and later thundery, if only such a set up could have happened 4 to 8 weeks ago,

Meteorite58

ECM 12Z showing HP building but has already pushed it out a number of days. Fairly settled looking model run with calm weather and no great rainfall, getting less as HP builds on the chart below. Temps only around what we got today it would seem.

GFS a bit warmer getting into the low 20's and similarly less rainfall then of late showing up on the rainfall prediction charts.

If this holds up it looks good for the harvest.

JanuarySnowstor

It wouldn't take much of a tweak to provide a very decent week though! Temps would surely respond to mid 20s in any sunshine. Gfs obviously best but ecm not half bad!

esposito

12Z ECM looks really good towards the end of the run. As JS said above mid 20s very achievable if prolonged sunshine and sea breeze shouldn’t be as impactful as it would in June/ July with warmer seas now.

pauldry

Ya this year so far

May the warmest

June the coldest

July a bit warmer

August a bit warmer again

If some of the forecasts beyond 120 verify September could be warmest of all. However also prone to cool nights so may nor happen.

typhoony

Settled weather for an extended period, tentative signs of energy from the south not from the west in around 10 days time, most likely of a connective nature. Actually wasn't it around the same time last year we had a thundery breakdown

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122553583#Comment_122553583

Yes the 1st 10 days of September was our summer and we got a thundery breakdown

compsys

Christ. What an awful run from the ECM.

A dartboard low plunges over the country on Sunday and then meanders overs us for the rest of the run as it gets stuck between two areas of high pressure.

It's actually so bad it's almost funny.

Meteorite58

Yeah poor set of charts, LP becoming dominant, average or a bit higher than average temperatures in general with a few lower than average, cooling off at the end of the run, even seeing low single digits at night but too far away to know for sure and rainfall totals up from the ECM, GFS not showing as much rainfall ( but a lot off the coast ) but has lowered the temperatures to the high teens or around 20C on the warmer days . Those meandering LP systems are a devil to forecast and would expect changeable and frustrating charts over the coming days. Depending on the position of the cut off LP could indeed see thunderstorm type weather coming up on bands from the S or SE but a long way off. Bit of a tussle now between LP and HP.

A whole different set of charts now.

JanuarySnowstor

WTF what happened the charts tonight!!

Kutebride

Do you mean Gerry's charts? :)

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122555333#Comment_122555333

June 2023 was a very nice summer month to be fair. Broke records.

typhoony

Charts are all over the place, ECM has had a major wobble as far as showing a settled period of weather, the GFS has been a bit more assured

squonk

well going by YR for my location it’s showing fine tomorrow and Saturday with Norman service resuming by Sunday. ME are saying the face as of last night. I so much want to be wrong but I don’t e see a classic settled sunny September over the next while.

We also remember the good parts. Back in 2002 I think it was I was in Donegal for a friends wedding. I remember gorgeous sunny weather but was revived listen that the days leading up were cool and showery, the wedding day itself was full but at least dry and the following few days were lovely. It’s the longest days that stuck in my head.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122557759#Comment_122557759

Yes may into June and 1st half of September was nice but was a wash out mid June onwards till September 😀

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122559040#Comment_122559040

Not quite mid June.

19 stations had their highest mean minimum for June on record. Athenry, Co Galway and Shannon Airport, Co Clare experienced 27 consecutive days with maximum air temperatures > 20.0 °C, ending on Saturday 24 June.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122559308#Comment_122559308

Yes my bad was about 3 days earlier for here in carrick but my god we had about 14 thunderstorm days last summer 7 of which was back to back I couldn't believe it

Meteorite58

Mod Note: Really need to stay on topic or the thread gets derailed, all interesting posts but better in the other threads.

Dazler97

What's the latest charts like ??

almostthere12

GFS going with a long settled spell, doesn’t look particularly warm but would be welcomed change.

ECM going with a washing machine low that gets boxed in over Ireland by high pressure and goes around and around and…..

Thunder87

Even GFS isn't particularly good, it's a fairly strong westerly flow and we're on the northern edge of the high which usually means lots of low cloud and drizzle spilling in. Hopefully it can push a bit further north

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122561588#Comment_122561588

There's a fairly stark difference in the GFS and ECM in terms of rainfall for the next 10 days. The ECM is still on its own with that low forming off our West coast Sunday/Monday. The other models are showing some low pressure from that system over Iceland still having influence but nothing like the ECM.

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122561628#Comment_122561628

A huge difference all right now for a number of runs, the Global model ( which gives an average of the main models ) probably leans more towards the ECM I reckon, but noticing the latest runs possibly easing off a bit on the totals. Still watching for some thunderstorm scenario at some stage with a set up like that, maybe towards the end of the week.

bazlers

Good morning all, so anyone with any extreme early long range predictions as to what winter 24/25 might have to offer!?

We will enjoy this weekend anyhow. It was certainly a forgettable summer overall.

Hopfully we get a few interesting events going into autumn and winter.

Dazler97

Is their an autumn tread

SaoPaulo41

Can I ask a general question please? Apologies for this btw. How accurate is accuweather? I'm looking at October 2024 monthly weather for Side in Turkey , its showing lots of thunder storms from 24 onwards. My question really is, how accurate do you guys reckon this is? Can rain be predicted for example 25th October 2024? Or is is just a guess. Apologies guys but even a basic answer would be most welcome.

wazzzledazzle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122587941#Comment_122587941

I wouldn't rely on them for 3 day weather, let alone over a months time. Ignore.

Danny healy ray

is next week looking decent now ??

Elmer Blooker

I’ve given up and don’t expect high pressure to be anywhere near us, time and time again in recent months promising charts have disappeared into thin air at very short notice …. the ‘blob’?
I have never seen such uncertainty in forecasting before.
is there even any point in posting +120 charts in this thread anymore?